China＇s Import-exchange Rate Linkage： Evidence from the China-bound Exports of Japan and Korea

This paper examines how the China-bound exports of Japan and Korea are related to exchange rates, motivated by the fact that processing trade makes up a large proportion of China＇s trade, and that Japan and Korea are the leading source countries for processing imports. Because processing imports are inputs for exports, the link between such imports and China＇s exchange rates are ambiguous. We estimate export functions that include China＇s RMB real effective exchauge rates （REER） along with bilateral real exchange rates （B RER） using Johausen ＇s cointegration method aud find that the RMB REER significantly affects Japanese and Korean exports to China, even more so than BRER in most cases examined. These two exchange rates appear in the export equations with opposite signs. Subsequently, we use the estimated model to illustrate the importance of accounting for a concurrent change in B RER when analyzing the effects of a hypothetical RMB revaluation on China＇s trade balances despite the apparently weak imports-B RER linkage.     

Why Are Chinese Exports Not So Special？

Applying a commonly used index for export sophistication in a cross-country study, Rodrik finds that the technological content of Chinese exports over the past decade has been so high that it cannot be explained simply by the economic fundamentals of a low-income country abundant with unskilled labor. Question has been raised for the empirical robustness of the index. I am also doubtful with Rodrik＇ s analysis but develop my argument from a different perspective. This paper briefly reviews Rodrik＇s methodology and identifies other factors his empirical results potentially hinge on. Based on this, it elaborates on China＇ s unique processing trade regime, the uneven distribution of its exports across Chinese regions and the limitation of HS codes in terms of identifying differentiated products, in an attempt to show that these factors also contribute to higher estimations of China＇s export sophistication level. Finally, it organizes trade data to reveal the trade patterns that are indeed consistent with the country＇s comparative advantage.     

Is Financial Development Another Source of Comparative Advantage？ Evidence from China

Using panel data for 29 provinces in China during 1990-2004, the present paper attempts to explore a possible link between financial development and China＇s foreign trade. Three measures of comparative advantage in manufactured goods have been applied in our study, including Balassa＇s revealed comparative advantage, the net manufactured export index, and the Michaely index. We also use four indicators of financial development to identify the different functions of regional financial development, and to determine both size and efficiency features of financial institutions. The estimation results suggest that besides factor endowments, foreign firms and infrastructure, financial development has a quantitatively large and robust effect on China ＇ s manufactured goods trade. Therefore, further reform of China＇s financial system should be encouraged to fully exploit the comparative advantage of China＇s foreign trade.     

China＇s Trade Acceleration and the Deepening of an East Asian Regional Production Network

China＇s recent surge in trade has been associated with its deepening but contrasting trade relations with its two groups of key trading partners. On the one hand, China＇ s trade surpluses with the USA and the EU have risen rapidly, reaching US$144bn and US$91bn in 2006, respectively. On the other hand, China is importing heavily from its Asian neighbors. This diverging pattern of trade relations between China and its main trading partners reflects the continuous expansion and intensification of a complex cross-border production network in Asia, particularly for consumer electronics. In the process of deepening manufacturing sharing, China serves as an essential export platform for firms headquartered in the more advanced economies. These firms export intermediate goods from the relatively more advanced Asian economies to their affiliates in China where these inputs are assembled and then shipped to key export markets, including primarily the USA and the EU. One apparent outcome of the growing processing and assembly trade is the increased interdependency among Asian economies, which are now more dependent on each other than ever. It has also led to substantial structural changes and technological upgrading in China＇ s traded goods.     

A Study on Current and Future Guanxi Networks of China

Despite the abundant opportunities are presented by Chinese market, many foreign practitioners have commented that operating in China is more complex and time consuming than necessary, and of the 53 companies interviewed by Hong Kong＇s Bank of East Asia, 42% were reported not to be profitable （Economist Intelligence Union （EIU）, 1995）. Given the fact that China＇s potential as a market is unparalleled, while many foreign business practitioners have commented that operating in China is difficult to be profitable, and it is more complex and time consuming than it is necessary （Ewing, Garuana ＆ Wong, 1999）, a large number of researches on doing business hi China recogniZe the concept of Guanxi, a business relationship network, as the key for conducting successful business in China This study co llectsboth primary data and secondary data to explore the issues of Guanxi. The review on the secondary data helps to build the analysis techniques and study instruments. A survey questionnaire is developed after the study on the secondary data, and the primary data is collected from the surveys, which are faxed to sample groups in both Taiwan and Mainland China. The study on the Mainland China senior managers is to find the current Guanxi concept of China, while the Taiwan senior manager group and the Mainland China college student group are chosen to explore the future Guanxi changes. By using statistical techniques of the mean and standard deviation calculations, the t-test for two samples with equal variances, and the correlation test, the findings of this study help to answer the critical questions concerning the study objectives. The practical interpretation and implications of this study of Guanxi are gained from the summary of the statistical results. A conclusion and recommendations of this study on the Guanxi concepts are presented to business practitioners both inside and outside of China.     

CO2 Emissions Embodied in China＇s Foreign Trade： An Investigation from the Perspective of Global Vertical Specialization

In light of the growth in vertically specialized in global trade, the present paper uses input output tables from the World Input-Output Database to construct an environmental multi regional input-output model to calculate the CO2 emissions embodied in China＇s international trade during 1995-2009. The advantage of this model lies in its incorporation of the re exported CO2 emissions component embodied in trade and its ability to differentiate domestic sourced CO2 emissions from foreign-sourced CO2 emissions in trade. The results show that carbon emissions embodied in both China＇s exports and imports increased significantly during 1995-2009. One important reason for this is that the re-exported carbon emissions embodied in China＇s imported intermediate inputs increased substantially during this period. Our research reveals that accelerating the transformation of trade pattern and upgrading processing trade should be emphasized in the formulation of policy to prompt CO 2 emissions abatement in China.     

Who is Going to Supply the Milk to China＇s South？

China＇s dairy industry has experienced rapid expansion in recent years, with an average annual growth rate of 23.8 percent from 2000 to 2006. However, there exists a serious geographical distribution imbalance in milk production and consumption. Approximately 85 percent of China＇s milk is produced in northern China, where 40 percent of the country＇s population reside. In contrast, only about 15 percent of the milk is produced in China＇s south, where 60percent of China＇s population reside. This has resulted in a significant gap between milk production and consumption in southern China and this gap is expected to rise. This paper considers China＇s milk demand and supply situation, analyzes the likely potential for China to expand its milk production and explores options for meeting milk demand-supply shortages. Policy and trade implications are discussed.     

The relationship of customer complaints,satisfaction and loyalty： Evidence from China＇s mobile phone industry

Customer satisfaction and loyalty is subject to the influence of different types of customer complaints and will be with different results. In this paper, according to the hypotheses about the relationship of complaint, satisfaction and loyalty, a Structural Equation Model based on PLS （Partial Least 2 Squares） is built. By using the PLS Graph, these hypotheses are empirically tested by the data from China＇s mobile phone consumers. The study suggests that direct complaint should have a positive effect on satisfaction. However the degree of effect depends on the result of dealing with complaints. So the number of direct complaints should be controlled within the enterprise＇s ability of dealing with complaints. Meanwhile, comparing with directly complaining customers, indirectly complaining customers are more likely to repeat the purchasing and become loyal customers.     

Growing Economic Interdependence of China and the Gulf Cooperation Council

The six nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council （GCC） have approximately 40percent of total proven oil reserves as well as 23 percent of the world＇s gas reserves. Although rising oil revenues have led to greater outward investment flows, there is also a growing need for significant expansion of the domestic energy sector＇s capacity. Meanwhile, China＇s sustained economic boom has resulted in China emerging as the world＇s second largest consumer and importer o foil, with close to 40percent of its import demand presently sourced from the GCC. This share will grow significantly in the future. Commercial relations between the GCC and China have to date been dominated by energy-related bilateral investment flows and China＇s oil imports. Although this will continue to be a central feature, trade and investment links in non-energy areas will further broaden and deepen the relationship. China ＇s relationship with the USA in terms of energy is also emerging as a major issue. Rather than being competitors, a mutual dependence on stable and secure supplies from the GCC highlights the need for a cooperative relationship.     

Development in China＇s Foreign Trade： 2003-2012

China＇s foreign trade has entered a new stage, marked by some profound changes since 2003. After 5 years ＇consecutive high growth, China＇s foreign trade experienced a significant slowdown in growth following the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008. The purpose of this article is to present a review of the development in China＇s foreign trade over the past l O years, and to explore important changes that have taken place during this period of time. A majorfinding of the presentpaper is that the traditional forces driving the high export growth in China, that is, low-cost labor, low-cost resources and low-cost money, have been disappearing. The policy implication is that over the next l O-15 years, the most important conditions for sustaining high export growth will be promoting the development and export of private enterprises in traditional heaw industries and high-technology industries, and relying on technological progress and high produc6vity to propel export expansion.     

中国贸易模式对贸易利益的影响分析与外贸战略调整

20世纪90年代以来,中国的商品出口规模不断扩大,但在对外贸易迅速发展的同时出现了贸易条件恶化、贸易摩擦增多,以及比较优势升级缓慢等问题,这些问题直接影响到中国贸易利益的获取。针对这些现象,文章分析了中国当前贸易模式的几个特征以及这些特征对中国当前和未来获取贸易利益造成的不利影响,并根据分析结果提出适度控制对外贸易规模、逐渐向内需主导型经济过渡和推动比较优势升级的中国外贸战略调整政策建议。     

Trade elasticities in transition countries

Trade elasticities play a crucial role in translating economic analysis of external adjustment issues into macroeconomic policy. Trade demand elasticities allow policy makers to draw important conclusions about exchange rate misalignments or trade balance changes. This paper endeavors to bring transition countries, namely those from Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States, into the universe of estimated price and activity elasticities of trade volumes. The estimated results imply that the traditional ‘Marshall-Lerner’ condition is not satisfied for transition countries. The estimated price elasticities of export and import demands perform fairly well in predicting out-of-sample changes in trade balance ratios for a broad set of transition countries. In the long run, however, exports and imports are mainly driven by income changes.     

数字贸易、产业结构升级与出口技术复杂度——基于结构方程模型的多重中介效应

提升出口技术复杂度能显著提升中国创新能力,而发展数字贸易是促进中国出口技术复杂度提升的重要途径。研究数字贸易的影响因素以及数字贸易通过哪些途径对中国出口技术复杂度产生影响,是理顺数字贸易与出口技术复杂度之间关系的关键任务。利用中国30个省(区、市)的数据,使用结构方程模型和中介效应检验方法,分析了数字贸易综合竞争力对中国出口技术复杂度的影响,结果发现:信息化水平、政府科技支出占比、进出口贸易、劳动生产率通过数字贸易对出口技术复杂度产生显著的间接效应,但政府科技支出对中国数字贸易综合竞争力的影响最小;数字贸易通过人力资本对出口技术复杂度产生显著的间接效应,R&D强度在数字贸易与出口技术复杂度之间起中介作用;数字贸易通过R&D强度对中国产业结构升级产生显著的间接效应,其对产业结构的作用能通过人力资本、R&D强度进行传导。因此,要加快推动数字贸易高质量发展,大力提升信息化水平,不断提升政府科技支出对数字贸易综合竞争力的促进作用。     

人民币实际汇率变动对我国进出口贸易影响:1997-2006

本文选取1997-2006年的月度数据运用VAR方法,控制了FDI存量和我国加工贸易特征影响后,对贸易收支与人民币实际汇率变动关系进行了动态分析,并得出6大结论。     

The U.S.–China trade war: Tariff data and general equilibrium analysis

The current trade war between the United States and China is unprecedented in modern history. This study introduces a database of tariff increases resulting from the trade war and quantifies the impacts using the canonical GTAPinGAMS model calibrated to the recently released GTAP version 10 accounts. We find that the remaining tariff increases as of March 2020 after the phase one trade deal decrease welfare in China by 1.7% and welfare in the United States by 0.2%. Impacts on sectoral revenue are reported for both countries. China's exports to and imports from the United States are reduced by 52.3% and 49.3%. The trade flow between the United States and China will be diverted to their major trade partners resulting in higher welfare in those countries, including many Asian countries. The estimated impacts are robust to using alternative trade elasticities and are amplified in the absence of the phase one tariff reductions.     

Estimating Chinese Trade Relationships with the Silk Road Countries

In this paper we discuss the extent to which countries in the former Silk Road regions are either reaching or failing to reach their trading potential with China. We estimate a gravity model of trade using a Poisson pseudo‐maximum likelihood estimator, and estimate trade potential using in‐sample, out‐of‐sample and counterfactual approaches. We compare trade potential using these three methods for Silk Road country trades with China. Next, we compare the estimated trade potential to actual trade, and find that most Silk Road countries are underperforming in their trade with China. However, trade performance against potential improved for most countries over the years 1990–2013. Our results suggest that China's former Silk Road trading partners have yet to realize the full potential benefits of China's economic growth but that the gap may be narrowing.     

大力发展电子政务,推进国际贸易便利化

当前的金融危机对我国经济尤其是对外贸易的影响巨大,在"保外需"的同时,政府更应该关注内部环境的建设,进一步推进国际贸易便利化。电子政务是提高政府办公透明度、提高办事效率的基础,更是推进无纸贸易和国际贸易便利化进程的关键。     

后危机时代中国应对贸易摩擦的战略体系构建

文章认为,在后危机时代,贸易摩擦已成为中国进一步融入世界经济过程中的一个难以回避而需要谨慎处理的重要问题。文章首先描述了中国对外贸易摩擦的主要特点,提出应从政府、行业协会和企业三个层面入手,不断构建和完善＂三位一体＂联动机制,以应对中国频频遭遇的贸易摩擦,进而实现中国对外贸易的健康和持续发展。     

我国应对绿色贸易壁垒体系的策略分析

绿色贸易壁垒是当今国际贸易保护主义的新动向,是非关税壁垒的重要组成部分,它对国际贸易的发展产生了很大程度的影响。对于作为一个发展中国家,作为一个贸易大国的中国,绿色贸易壁垒己影响到对外贸易的发展,并几乎波及到我国对外贸易的所有领域。因此,系统地研究绿色贸易壁垒,分析绿色贸易壁垒对国际贸易的影响,以及分析对中国经济可持续发展的影响,对提出构建我国的绿色贸易壁垒应对策略,具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

我国贸易顺差结构、成因及国际比较

文章总结改革开放以来我国贸易顺差的三个阶段,分析近几年贸易顺差的结构性特征。据此认为,我国贸易顺差实际是一种转移顺差,是国际间产业转移以及资本项目顺差隐形转移的必然产物,是我国劳动力价格、国内产能过剩及内需不足、配额限制取消等因素综合作用的结果。提出从顺差总量、贸易不平衡度以及顺差与GDP之比的国际比较上看,中国贸易顺差并不像一些研究人员所认为的那样严重。