The competition and equilibrium analysis of LCD TV and PDP TV

This study has investigated the dynamic competitive relationship between PDP TVs and LCD TVs by means of their quarterly shipments. The renowned Lotka-Volterra competition diffusion model has been adopted to conduct the empirical analysis with the Lyapunov function to carry out equilibrium and stability analysis, and estimate the domain of attraction which describes the trend and phenomenon of TV shipments. The results illustrate that there is good fitting performance while adopting this model. The competitive relationship can be viewed from the perspective that the LCD TV is the prey while the PDP TV is the predator. The possibility, nevertheless, for dropping the price of LCD TVs is an advantage of the attractiveness of the product which can be noted in higher growth rate than PDP TVs. With respect to the equilibrium stability analysis and estimated domain of attraction, 40- to 49-inch PDP TVs will not disappear from the market, but will generate a stable equilibrium with LCD TVs and sales volume presents simultaneous increase or decrease. In the supply and demand analysis, LCD TVs present a surplus of supply from 2008; therefore, how to conduct appropriate inventory management will be an emerging issue.     

Combining conjoint analysis,scenario analysis,the Delphi method,and the innovation diffusion model to analyze the development of innovative products in Taiwan's TV market

In science and technology industries, innovative products are launched rapidly, making the lifecycle of new products ever shorter. Thus, it is important that companies understand consumers' needs and consider expert opinion when analyzing the development of a new technology. However, no studies have combined these two perspectives with regard to the development of a new product. Therefore, this research combined conjoint analysis, scenario analysis, and the Delphi method with the innovative diffusion model to analyze the development of Taiwan's TV market over the next 10 years. The results show that the outlook for demand for light-emitting diode (LED) TVs in Taiwan is very optimistic; sales of LED TVs will surpass sales of liquid crystal display TVs in 2015 in the optimistic scenario and in 2017 in the most likely scenario.     

结合新产品扩散特征的实物期权定价模型研究

现有实物期权定价模型未能考虑新产品销售量所呈现的扩散特征,模型的分析结果与实际情况有较大差距。文章假设新产品价格服从几何布朗运动,并以Bass模型预测新产品的销售过程,运用二叉树方法,构建了离散时间状态下结合新产品扩散特征的实物期权定价模型,并得到新技术采用的最优时机。     

Investigation of the effect of secondary market on the diffusion of innovation

In the high-tech product market, the number of hungry adopters, a new type of early adopters who buy new products and sell them soon in the on- or off-line secondary market to seek for the other new products, has been increasing due to the short product life cycle of high-tech products and the low transaction cost on the Internet. This new phenomenon means that it is inappropriate to consider customers only in the primary market as total adopters in innovation diffusion modeling, since purchasers in the secondary market also have a word-of-mouth effect on the remaining non-adopters. To explain this new phenomenon, we modify the basic Bass diffusion model by incorporating the effect of the secondary market and conduct an empirical analysis. As a result, we conclude that the basic Bass model is likely to overestimate sales volume and tends to forecast lagged peak time when there is an effect from the secondary market. This means that applying a diffusion model to high-tech products without considering the secondary market effect would provide an inaccurate market forecast.     

Forecasting demand for a newly introduced product using reservation price data and Bayesian updating

Forecasting demand during the early stages of a product's life cycle is a difficult but essential task for the purposes of marketing and policymaking. This paper introduces a procedure to derive accurate forecasts for newly introduced products for which limited data are available. We begin with the assumption that the consumer reservation price is related to the timing with which the consumer adopts the product. The model is estimated using reservation price data derived through a consumer survey, and the forecast is updated with sales data as they become available using Bayes's rule. The proposed model's forecasting performance is compared with that of benchmark models (i.e., Bass model, logistic growth model, and a Bayesian model based on analogy) using 23 quarters' worth of data on South Korea's broadband Internet services market. The proposed model outperforms all benchmark models in both prelaunch and postlaunch forecasting tests, supporting the thesis that consumer reservation price can be used to forecast demand for a new product before or shortly after product launch.     

Vertical separation with location–price competition

While the literature has generally found that vertical separation helps buffer competition and harm consumers in a duopolistic market, we find the exact opposite. To induce the retailers to locate closer to consumers and earn a larger market share, the manufacturers set wholesale prices below marginal cost. This market share effect dominates the previously focused coordination effect under which a higher wholesale price helps coordinate the retailers’ pricing decisions. For each manufacturer, vertical separation is a dominant strategy so the endogenous determination of vertical separation versus vertical integration is a prisoner’s dilemma game.     

A study on the relationship between technology diffusion and new product diffusion

This study investigates the relationship between “technology diffusion” and “new product diffusion”. We define “technology diffusion” as a knowledge spillover process, which is represented by patent citation, and “new product diffusion” as the spread of a new product that has been developed by the application of patented technology. To investigate the relationship between the two types of diffusion, we use patent citation data of code division multiple access (CDMA) technology and market sales data of mobile phones in South Korea for the analysis. The results show that the diffusion of technology through patent citation could be successfully explained by empirical analysis, for which the Bass diffusion model was used. Moreover, we can find out if technology diffusion can be the leading indicator of a new product's diffusion before its launching; in other words, before the commercialization of the patent.     

Price Competition and Consumer Externalities in a Vertically Differentiated Duopoly with Information Disparities

In this paper, we extend the model of vertical product differentiation to consider information disparities about quality differences and their effects on price competition. If uninformed consumers overestimate vertical differentiation, asymmetric information is a source of market power and informed consumers exert positive externalities on high quality product purchasers and negative externalities on low quality product purchasers. Such a result is consistent with the fact that information undermines brand. If uninformed consumers are skeptical, adverse selection issues arise and market demands may be perfectly inelastic to prices. With elastic demands equilibrium prices may be either distorted downwards or reflect real quality if the share of informed consumers is suffciently high. Therefore, with skeptical consumers firms may want either to signal quality or subsidize information provision.     

Determinants of price elasticities for private labels and national brands of cheese

An Almost Ideal Demand System model is developed and used to estimate price elasticities for US cheese sold at retail. Growing consumption of cheese coupled with fierce competition between private labels and national brands serves as motivating factors for this study. Per capita consumption of cheese grew by 75% during 1980–2004 and private labels captured a rising share of this growth. Private labels today account for 35% of market share; national brands, for the remaining 65%. Kraft accounts for 45% of national brands, but price increases for Kraft brands led to a sizeable price gap between its brands and private labels. This gap helped to stimulate growth of private labels. Marketing managers seek to capitalize on both growing cheese sales and price gaps for brands. Relevant information for marketing managers is consumer sensitivity to price changes. This study uses 69 weeks of scanner data, with consumers segmented by income levels to derive price elasticities for both lower-and higher-income consumers. Results show lower-income consumers to be more price sensitive. If large price gaps are maintained, the results suggest continued growth of private labels. Yet, meta-analyses for this study suggest that Kraft could lower the price gap and regain market share.     

Assessing the relationship between the user-based market share and unit sales-based market share for pirated software brands in competitive markets

This article argues that in a competitive software market, in the presence of differential piracy and brand switching among the various brands within a software product category (e.g., spreadsheets), there may be no relationship between market estimates based on unit sales and the user base of a software brand (e.g., Lotus 1-2-3). Hence, marketing strategies developed for the software brand based on unit sales-based market share may be misleading. To support our argument and to quantify the relationship between unit sales-based market share and the user-based market share, we first extend a diffusion modeling approach for pirated software product categories to model the legal and illegal adoption dynamics of a software brand within a software product category. Second, to examine empirically the relationship between the user-based market share and the unit sales-based market share for a brand, we consider the diffusion of the major brands of two types of software product categories, spreadsheets and word processors, in the United Kingdom. Results indicate that in the product category of spreadsheets, for Lotus 1-2-3, the user-based market share was always less than the unit sales-based market share. On the other hand, in the product category of word processing software, the user-based market share for WordPerfect was always greater than the unit sales-based market share. Marketing implications of these results for Lotus spreadsheets, Novell WordPerfect, and the software industry are discussed.     

Market share dynamics in a duopoly model with word-of-mouth communication

We analyze dynamic price competition in a homogeneous goods duopoly, where consumers exchange information via word-of-mouth communication. A fraction of consumers, who do not learn any new information, remain locked-in at their previous supplier in each period. We analyze Markov perfect equilibria in which firms use mixed pricing strategies. Market share dynamics are driven by the endogenous price dispersion. Depending on the parameters, we obtain different ‘classes’ of dynamics. When firms are impatient, there is a tendency towards equal market shares. When firms are patient, there are extended intervals of market dominance, interrupted by sudden changes in the leadership position.     

AN EQUILIBRIUM SEARCH MODEL OF SYNCHRONIZED SALES*

We demonstrate the existence of periodic nonstationary equilibria with self‐generating cycles in a simple model of random search. Our results provide a theory of synchronized sales based on product market search by heterogeneous consumers. That is, our model explains how it can be optimal for all sellers to follow a repeated pattern of posting a high price for several periods and then posting a low price for one period.     

A technology replacement model with variable market potential — An empirical study of CRT and LCD TV

The rapidly changing economic environment and increasingly fierce competition indicate that companies must innovate in both their products and marketing strategies if they are to continue to flourish. Specifically, the ability to accurately predict the demand for products is crucial when firms decide to allocate their resources, especially in the fast moving high technology industries, where there is very high investment in R&D and production facilities. This study establishes a forecast model for technology replacement based on the diffusion model with population growth used for the variable market potential. The proposed model is then applied to investigate the CRT and LCD TV market.The results suggest that the new model is more accurate than the constant market potential model in fitting and forecasting performance. Consumers who purchase a TV for the first time are likely more attracted to LCD TV rather than CRT TV. As for those individuals who already own a CRT TV, the attraction is not strong enough to encourage them to replace their current CRT TV with a new LCD TV. Moreover, it is noted that the falling price of LCD TV is an essential factor in encouraging purchases.     

Empirical Analysis of Brands: A Survey

In this paper, we survey the empirical analysis of brands. The difficulty in this area of research is that even though a brand is easily identifiable, its economic roles are not directly observable. We first discuss methods where the effect of a brand is measured as the unobservable component of sales or price of a product, which researchers recover as a residual of the sales or price regression. We then describe the approaches to estimate the various roles of brands, such as providing information and increasing the utility of consumption. Finally, we provide examples of research that highlight the role of brands in exploiting the irrationality of consumers for profit.     

A study of the method using search traffic to analyze new technology adoption

Various types of indices have been developed and applied for the purpose of identifying emergent technologies and forecasting their adoption. Recently, researchers have proposed search traffic analysis as a new method for tracking changes among consumers and utilizing this information to conduct further market research. Now with the onset of big data era, various attempts are being made to analyze the immense body of information made available by hidden traces left behind by consumers. In the same vein, our present study seeks to draw attention to the analytical advantages of utilizing search traffic. In this study, we use search traffic to analyze the adoption process of a new technology, in this case the technology of hybrid cars, for the purpose of verifying the potential value of conducting adoption analysis based on search traffic and we also propose a more refined method of analysis. First, we undertook to examine the keyword unit used in the searches, in order to refine our analysis of search traffic and thereby obtain greater practical utility. This was accomplished by comparing technology searches that specified the technology name with searches that specified the brand name. For each respective case, we also performed comparative analyses examining instances in which consumers simultaneously included the representative attributes of a product in their search.Our research found that the traffic of searches that specify a product's brand name was significant for explaining sales. Therefore, in the conclusion of this paper we argue that if the unit of search is properly refined, search traffic can indeed serve as an extremely useful method for analyzing or forecasting sales volume. Notably, brand-focused search traffic exhibited a superior ability to forecast sales volume compared to macro-indicators such as GDP growth or WTI prices that had been used to forecast car demand in preceding studies. Forecasting based on search traffic was even superior to forecasts using other bibliometric indices such as patent applications or news coverage.     

VERTICAL DIFFERENTIATION AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME

The paper analyses the effects of income concentration on the behaviour of a duopoly with vertical product differentiation and uncovered market. By using a trapezoid distribution, we solve explicitly for market equilibrium as a function of a mean preserving spread of the income distribution. We show that overall more concentrated incomes imply stronger product differentiation, as the presence of a large share of middle‐income consumers stimulates a price competition, whose effects are dampened through an enlargement of the quality spread. While the high‐quality advantage and market coverage increase unambiguously in the degree of income concentration, the behaviour of prices is non‐monotone in the distribution parameter.     

A choice-based multi-product diffusion model incorporating replacement demand

This study proposes an integrated forecasting model that incorporates both first purchase diffusion and replacement component of sales in predicting multi-product diffusion patterns. The model consists of a two-stage procedure that customers undertake during purchase occasions according to a diffusion process or replacement process, and at each occasion, they make purchase incidence decisions and product choices according to a choice model. By incorporating various exogenous factors in the choice model, the model can identify the impact of each factor on customers' purchase incidence decisions and choice decisions among various product sub-categories. This approach enables us to understand the overall process of customers' purchasing behavior and to separate total sales amount into sales to three consumer segments: first-time buyers, customers who repurchase the same product category and customers who change their previous product category. We applied the proposed model in the forecasting multi-product framework; forecasting sub-category level automobile sales and brand level mobile terminal sales in the South Korean market. The results of the empirical studies showed that incorporating the replacement components into the multi-product diffusion framework is useful not only in understanding the demand interaction among automobile categories and among mobile handset brands, but also in producing more accurate long-term sales forecasts compared to previous multi-product diffusion models.     

基于联合分析的新产品市场占有率预测——学生笔记本电脑市场的实证分析

市场竞争日趋激烈,企业要想在市场竞争中立于不败之地,在开发一种新产品时,势必要预测新产品在市场上的份额,本文在简述联合分析基本原理的基础上,以开发学生笔记本电脑市场的新产品为例,采用联合分析方法中的最大效用值法来预测新产品的市场占有率。     

Low prices cum selective distribution versus high prices: how best to signal quality?

We investigate the best signalling strategy for a monopoly introducing a new product with unobservable quality when second-period sales are linked to first-period ones and the firm may tailor its distribution network to exclude some consumers. When producing a high quality product rather than a low quality one is relatively costly with respect to the increase in quality, optimal signalling is by price alone. But when the cost differential is lower, it will be optimal to set a low first-period price, not to serve all would-be consumers at this price (selective distribution) and raise the price afterwards. Paradoxically, this strategy allows a larger customer base to be reached than in the case of pure price signalling.     

Demographic processes in a model of innovation diffusion with dynamic market

In this paper we study a binomial innovation diffusion model for a variable size market by modelling the demographic process of entrance-exit from each market compartment. We examine from a theoretical point of view the effect of the simultaneous presence of economic and demographic parameters under the exponential market growth hypothesis, by presenting some general results on the adoptions and sales time path. We also enlighten the relevance of considering these variables in relative terms and show how, in presence of a dynamic, the diffusion process never saturates the market. Finally, we test our model on a data set for cellular phones market in different countries.