Mispricing of dual-class shares: Profit opportunities,arbitrage, and trading

This is the first paper to examine the microstructure of how mispricing is created and resolved. We study dual-class shares with equal cash flow rights and show that a simple trading strategy exploiting gaps between their prices appears to create abnormal profits after transactions costs. Trade and quote data show that investors shift their trading patterns to take advantage of gaps. Contrary to common perception, long–short arbitrage plays a minor part in eliminating gaps, and one-sided trades correct most of them. We also show that the more liquid share class is usually responsible for the price discrepancies.     

Wealth transfer through private placements: Evidence from China

We examine private issuance of public equity (PIPE) in China, and our results suggest that PIPE investors benefit from the price manipulation before and after issuance. These investors tend to cash out after lockup expiration and make large profits. We also find evidence that the trading of PIPE investors after lockup expiration is informed. Tests about the abnormal returns in the 3 years after lockup expiration suggest that at least part of the benefits PIPE investors receive come from wealth transfer from outside investors. Overall, PIPE issuers in China seem to use an opaque mechanism to compensate PIPE investors.     

Crushed by a rational stampede: Strategic share dumping and shareholder insurrections

In this paper, we develop a dynamic model of institutional share dumping surrounding control events. Institutional investors sometimes dump shares, despite trading losses, in order to manipulate share prices and trigger activism by “relationship” investors. These institutional investors are motivated to trade not only by trading profits but also by a desire to protect the value of their inventory and to disguise the quality of their own information. Relationship investor profit from targeting firms both by improving firm performance and by generating private information.     

Futures trading volume as a determinant of prices in different momentum phases

Recent studies contend that trading volume has predictive power for ex ante stock prices, particularly small stocks that do not react quickly to macroeconomic information. This study postulates that a significant amount of macro-information that flows on to stock markets is derived from derivative markets. We examine the impact of short-term futures trading volume and prices on cash stock prices using a case study of 15-min data from the Australian stock index futures market which reports actual trading volume. After applying vector error correction modelling (VECM), variance decomposition and impulse functions, we conclude that futures prices provide a short-term information lead to stock prices that dominates trading volume effects. We also observe asymmetric changes in the impact of trading volume between bull and bear price momentum phases and after large trading volume shocks. These results suggest that, in future, studies on trading volume should control for the cross-correlation impact from derivative prices and the differential impact of trading phases.     

Selling winners, holding losers: Effect on fund flows and survival of disposition-prone mutual funds

Recent studies suggest that presence of a disposition effect in a large subset of investors can create stock mispricings, which has serious implications for market efficiency. We examine whether US equity mutual funds are disposition-prone, how that effect influences performance, investor flows and fund survival, and whether the disposition orientation of mutual funds affects stock prices in a sustained manner.We find that about 30% of all funds exhibit some degree of disposition behavior and that such funds underperform funds that are not disposition-prone by 4-6% per year. Moreover, after controlling for performance, tax overhang and other factors that potentially affect flows, disposition-prone funds attract significantly smaller flows than other funds. The results suggest that mutual fund investors are smart enough to minimize investment in disposition-prone funds. Consequently, disposition-prone funds have significantly higher rates of failure than other funds, thereby reducing the impact of such trading behavior on security prices.     

Further evidence on analyst and investor misweighting of prior period cash flows and accruals

We empirically investigate three questions: (i) whether analysts and investors mis-estimate the persistence of operating cash flows, (ii) if so, is the cash flow effect distinct from the accrual effect in the sense that one effect holds after controlling for the other, and (iii) if these are distinct effects, which effect is stronger in magnitude? We find that prior period operating cash flows have a significant positive effect on forecast errors and stock returns consistent with analysts and investors underestimating the persistence of operating cash flows. Further, we find that not only is the operating cash flow effect distinct from the accrual (more specifically the working capital accrual) effect but it is also considerably larger in magnitude. To our knowledge, this is the first study that documents the relative magnitude of prior period cash flow and working capital accrual effects on forecast errors and stock returns. Our findings have several implications for future research and practice. First, the consistency of results across the two sets of users (analysts and investors) suggests that analyst-forecast inefficiencies are less likely to be driven by their incentives to promote stocks and more likely to be a manifestation of a broader phenomenon that has not been thoroughly investigated in prior studies. Second, for practitioners, our results suggest that a trading strategy based on prior period working capital accruals and cash flows would earn higher abnormal returns than a trading strategy based on accruals alone.     

Trading imbalances,predictable reversals,and cross-stock price pressure

We test the implications of a multi-asset equilibrium model in which a finite number of risk-averse liquidity providers accommodate non-informational trading imbalances. These imbalances generate predictable reversals in stock returns. An imbalance in one stock also affects the prices of other stocks. The magnitude of the cross-stock price pressure depends on the correlations of the stocks’ underlying cash flows. The model implies that non-informational trading increases the volatility of stock returns. We confirm the model's implications using data from the Taiwan Stock Exchange.     

Learning from experience and trading volume

We build a model where trading allows inexperienced agents to discern useful information sources. Upon losing money by trading on invalid information sources, investors learn from their experience and switch to alternative sources. Such activity leads to initial expected losses but later profitable trades. Trading activity is found to be increasing in the mass of such agents. Volume is greatest in firms with uncertain cash flows. Further, a greater number of information sources implies greater volume. This is consistent with the explosive growth in volume accompanying the growth of the internet, which presumably increases the number of heterogeneous information sources.     

Unusual operating cash flows and stock returns

The current financial reporting of cash flows from operations does not present individual sources of these cash flows, making it difficult for investors to assess a firm’s future performance. I hand-collect individual cash flows from unusual operations and examine their characteristics for predicting future cash flows. The results show that the unusual individual cash flow items contain a significant incremental predictive ability for future cash flows. Additional return tests show that stock prices fail to fully reflect their predictive value, suggesting that the current reporting practice may mislead investor perceptions of a firm’s cash generating ability and investors could benefit from a more explicit presentation of cash flows from operations.     

Overstatement of Implied Variance in the Dollar/Yen Currency Option Market

This paper investigates the predictive power of implied variancesextracted from the dollar/yen option prices. Implied variances areestimated from transaction prices of currency options traded on PHLXusing the option pricing model of Garman and Kohlhagen (1983). Incontrast to recent findings on stock and stock index options, theout-of-sample tests indicate that the implied variance is an upwardbiased estimator of future variance; and that the variance forecastsfrom GARCH and historical models do not contain significantincremental information in predicting future variance. Tradingstrategies are also developed to exploit the observed overstatementof variance in the dollar/yen option market. Traders that can executethe delta-neutral trading strategies at the observed markettransaction prices could lock in a significant profits during theperiod examined. However, for investors that facing highertransaction costs, the magnitude of the profits is generally notlarge enough to allow for abnormal risk-adjusted profits.     

Determinants and economic consequences of cash flow restatements

The FASB, PCAOB, SEC, and AICPA have all acknowledged that the accounting field needs to revisit the statement of cash flows (SCF). While the overall number of restatements has held steady over the past five years, the percentage of cash flow restatements (CFRs) has risen from 8.7% of all restatements in 2009 to 20.2% of all restatements in 2014. We examine the determinants of CFRs, investors’ differential beliefs about CFRs, and the information content of CFRs by focusing on abnormal trading volume and price reactions to CFRs. We then examine whether the guidance the SEC/AICPA published in early 2006 changed the information content of CFRs. Finally, since the proper classification within the SCF is a current regulatory issue, we examine whether classification shifting within the SCFs impacts the market. The market finds CFRs to be informative with some investor disagreement as shown by higher abnormal trading volume. We also find an incremental volume reaction to changes in operating cash flows after the SEC allowance period. While the market responds negatively to CFRs, we find that the market does not differentiate between whether classification shifting occurs or does not occur with the CFR. This study has implications for policymakers, auditors, and investors since it is one of the first to examine the capital market consequences of CFRs.     

An analysis of commodity markets: What gain for investors?

In this paper we study whether the commodity futures market predicts the commodity spot market. Using historical daily data on four commodities—oil, gold, platinum, and silver—we find that they do. We then show how investors can use this information on the futures market to devise trading strategies and make profits. In particular, dynamic trading strategies based on a mean–variance investor framework produce somewhat different results compared with those based on technical trading rules. Dynamic trading strategies suggest that all commodities are profitable and profits are dependent on structural breaks. The most recent global financial crisis marked a period in which commodity profits were the weakest.     

The Size and Incidence of the Losses from Noise Trading

Recent empirical research has identified a significant amount of volatility in stock prices that cannot easily be explained by changes in fundamentals; one interpretation is that asset prices respond not only to news but also to irrational “noise trading.” We assess the welfare effects and incidence of such noice trading using an overlapping-generations model that gives investors short horizons. We find that the additional risk generated by noise trading can reduce the capital stock and consumption of the economy, and we show that part of that cost may be borne by rational investors. We conclude that the welfare costs of noise trading may be large if the magnitude of noise in aggregate stock prices is as large as suggested by some of the recent empirical litrature on the excess volatility of the market.     

Feedback Effects and Asset Prices

Feedback effects from asset prices to firm cash flows have been empirically documented. This finding raises a question for asset pricing: How are asset prices determined if price affects fundamental value, which in turn affects price? In this environment, by buying assets that others are buying, investors ensure high future cash flows for the firm and subsequent high returns for themselves. Hence, investors have an incentive to coordinate, which may generate self‐fulfilling beliefs and multiple equilibria. Using insights from global games, we pin down investors' beliefs, analyze equilibrium prices, and show that strong feedback leads to higher excess volatility.     

Futures Manipulation with “Cash Settlement”

This paper investigates the susceptibility of futures markets to price manipulation in a two-period model with asymmetric information and “cash settlement” futures contracts. Without “physical delivery,” strategies based on “corners” or “squeezes” are infeasible. However, uninformed investors still earn positive expected profits by establishing a futures position and then trading in the spot market to manipulate the spot price used to compute the cash settlement at delivery. We also show that as the number of manipulators grows, profits from manipulation fall to zero. However, even in the limit, manipulation still has a nontrivial impact on market liquidity. More broadly, we interpret manipulation as a form of endogenous “noise trading” which can arise in multiperiod security markets.     

Cash Flow Volatility, Prices and Price Volatility: An Experimental Study

The value of an asset is equal to the present value of its expected future cash flows. It is affected by the magnitude, timing and riskiness, or volatility, of the cash flows. We hypothesize that if the expected values of two assets?? cash flows are equal, the value of the asset with more volatile cash flows will be lower. Furthermore, we examine the impact of the volatility of cash flows on the volatility of prices. We consider a simple experimental environment where subjects trade in an asset which provides dividends from a known probability distribution. The expected value of the dividends is identical in all experimental treatments. The treatments vary with respect to the volatility of dividends. We find that when dividends are more volatile, transaction prices are lower. We also find that the volatility of prices is lower in the treatment with highly volatile dividends. In addition, as expected, trading volume is lower when cash flows are less volatile.     

Is “voting with your feet” an effective mutual fund governance mechanism?

Investors in open-end mutual funds can vote with their feet by withdrawing assets from or adding assets to these funds. This paper assesses the effectiveness of this market discipline mechanism by investigating whether voting with the feet prevents the abusive practices that led to the 2003-2004 trading scandals. The research results indicate that funds with higher flow sensitivity—that is, a higher density of vigilant clients—have lower arbitrage potential and fewer abnormal flows, which in turn implies less opportunistic trading. As a result, these funds have a lower probability of being implicated in scandals. These findings suggest that investor ability to withdraw assets from or add assets to the funds is an effective mutual fund governance mechanism. In funds with less sophisticated investors who cannot use this option, other means of governance are especially important.     

The accrual anomaly: Australian evidence

This paper investigates whether there is evidence of the accrual anomaly ( Sloan, 1996 ) in Australia, whereby investors overestimate the impact of accruals on the persistence of earnings. While our results provide general support for the existence of the anomaly in Australia, there are a number of idiosyncrasies. First, there is evidence of Australian investors underestimating the persistence of earnings. Second, there is evidence of investors incorrectly assessing the implications of accruals and cash flows for the persistence of earnings (i.e. an accrual anomaly and a cash‐flow anomaly). Third, returns to a hedged portfolio trading strategy based on reported accruals are decreasing over the three‐year period subsequent to portfolio formation. Furthermore, they are statistically significant only in the first year. Additional analysis of the hedge portfolio results indicates that these results are primarily attributable to a limited number of firm‐year observations in the extreme positive tail of returns.     

Neglected risks,financial innovation,and financial fragility

We present a standard model of financial innovation, in which intermediaries engineer securities with cash flows that investors seek, but modify two assumptions. First, investors (and possibly intermediaries) neglect certain unlikely risks. Second, investors demand securities with safe cash flows. Financial intermediaries cater to these preferences and beliefs by engineering securities perceived to be safe but exposed to neglected risks. Because the risks are neglected, security issuance is excessive. As investors eventually recognize these risks, they fly back to the safety of traditional securities and markets become fragile, even without leverage, precisely because the volume of new claims is excessive.     

The Predictive Value of Expenses Excluded from Pro Forma Earnings

We investigate the informational properties of pro forma earnings. This increasingly popular measure of earnings excludes certain expenses that the company deems non-recurring, non-cash, or otherwise unimportant for understanding the future value of the firm. We find, however, that these expenses are far from unimportant. Higher levels of exclusions lead to predictably lower future cash flows. We also find that investors do not fully appreciate the lower cash flow implications at the time of the earnings announcement. A trading strategy based on the excluded expenses yields a large positive abnormal return in the years following the announcement, and persists after controlling for various risk factors and other anomalies.