服务联系成本、基础设施建设和东亚垂直分工:1992～2006

东亚因其迅速发展的国际生产网络而受到经济学界的广泛关注。本文从基础设施建设和服务联系成本的角度对东亚生产网络的成因展开研究。作者拓展了Limao和Venables的基础设施指数,并利用联合国贸易统计面板数据,在区分零部件和最终品贸易的情况下建立增广引力模型,对服务联系成本的影响进行细致梳理和量化分析。结果显示,基础设施的建设及服务联系成本的降低对东亚垂直分工体系的建立起到了巨大的促进作用。从促进出口的意义上看,基础设施建设有助于推动中国深入参与区域分工体系,并对未来恢复贸易增长产生积极效果。     

Sectoral FDI cycles in South and East Asia

This study aims to analyze how sectoral foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in South and East Asian economies respond to changes in the business cycles of the host countries, as measured by their output gaps. We focus on 15 economies during the period 1980–2011 and examine inflows of FDI in extractive industries, manufacturing and services in addition to aggregate FDI by using a dynamic panel Blundell–Bond GMM methodology. We find evidence of countercyclical behavior of services FDI and acyclical behavior of both extractive industries FDI and manufacturing FDI. The coutercyclical behavior of services FDI in South and East Asia has important policy implications.     

Intra- and Inter-industry Externalities from Foreign Direct Investment in the Mexican Manufacturing Sector: New Evidence from Mexican Regions

This paper presents new empirical evidence on externalities from Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in several Mexican regions in the early 1990s. The main findings are threefold. First, the presence of FDI creates negative externalities within industries and positive externalities between industries through backward linkages. Second, FDI-externalities are stimulated by large technological differences between FDI and Mexican firms and by geographic concentration of industries. Third, we identify a substantial level of regional heterogeneity of the externality impact of FDI, in line with the notion that FDI may have contributed to processes of changing regional prosperity under trade liberalization. The findings also imply that maquiladora firms in the border states are generating positive externalities.     

Vertical intra-industry trade and foreign direct investment in East Asia

As economic integration in East Asia progresses, trade patterns within the region are displaying an ever-greater complexity: Though inter-industry trade still accounts for the majority, its share in overall trade is declining. Instead, intra-industry trade (IIT), which can be further divided into horizontal IIT (HIIT) and vertical IIT (VIIT), is growing in importance.In this paper, we set out to measure and examine vertical intra-industry trade patterns in the East Asian region and compare these with the results of previous studies focusing on the EU, to which such analyses so far have been confined. Based on the supposition that VIIT is closely related to offshore production by multinational enterprises, we then develop a model to capture the main determinants of VIIT that explicitly includes the role of FDI. The model is tested empirically using data from the electrical machinery industry. The findings support our hypothesis, showing that FDI plays a significant role in the rapid increase in VIIT in East Asia seen in recent years. J. Japanese Int. Economies 17 (4) (2003) 468–506.     

Ties Binding Asia,Europe and the USA

We investigate changes in Asia's regional and global trade linkages and their influence on macroeconomic relationships among Asia, Europe and the USA. We first document changes in tripartite trade patterns and discuss stylized facts about East Asia's trade structure, with particular focus on the role of China. China plays a critical role in the rapidly expanding intra‐Asian trade as an assembly and production center that supplies final goods for the advanced economies. However, China's trade shares in final goods with East Asia and in parts and components with Europe and the USA are rising, suggesting that the region's production chains are becoming increasingly integrated into the global business network. Empirical results from a panel vector autoregression model generally confirm increasingly mutual macroeconomic interdependence among East Asia, Europe and the USA. The findings suggest a future role for Asia as an important trade partner and balancing power in the world economy.     

Assessment of the effects of infrastructure investment under the belt and road initiative

Based on the estimated effect of infrastructure investment on total factor productivity (TFP) enhancing and trade costs reducing, this paper uses the data from Asian Development Bank to numerically assess the effects of Asian nations' infrastructure investment under the Belt and Road Initiative within the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, and the results show that most countries or regions' economic growth, welfare, foreign trade, and trade terms are promoted in varying degrees. However, some countries (regions) have suffered. Additionally, the existing division of labor and trade patterns between developed economies and developing countries somehow consolidated because of changes in trade. In addition, China's industrial transformation and upgrading will benefit from the infrastructure investment under the Belt and Road Initiative, namely, the traditional industries slowdown or decline and high-tech manufacturing and service industries speed up, along with the optimization of factor allocation among industries.     

Asian trade: long‐term patterns and key policy issues

Fragmentation‐based specialisation has become an integral part of the economic landscape of East Asia. Dependence on this new form of international specialisation is proportionately larger in East Asia, in particular in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, than in North America and Europe. In this regard, an important recent development has been the rapid integration of China into regional production networks. This development is a counterpoint to the popular belief that China's global integration would crowd out other countries' opportunities for international specialisation. The rise of product fragmentation has strengthened the case for a global, rather than a regional, approach to trade and investment policymaking. Given the global orientation of the region's economies, we question whether there would be a significant benefit from current efforts to promote regional cooperation, unless the principle of ‘open regionalism’ is recognised. With both the Doha Round and APEC floundering, this is one of the major multilateral policy challenges of our time.     

Japan's FDI drivers in a time of financial uncertainty. New evidence based on Bayesian Model Averaging

In this paper we analyse the determinants of Japanese outward FDI stock for the period 1996–2017. This period is especially relevant as it covers a process of increasing economic globalization and two financial crises. To this aim, we consider a large set of candidate variables based on the theory as well as on previous empirical analysis. Our sample includes a total of 27 host countries. We select the covariates using a data-driven methodology, the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) analysis. Moreover, we also analyse whether these determinants change depending on the degree of development (emerging vs developed) or the geographical areas (EU vs East Asia) of the countries considered. We find that Japan's FDI can be explained by a wide variety of variables, that include not only the typical gravitational ones but also institutional and macroeconomic variables, including those that measure financial development. Moreover, Japanese FDI can be explained by both horizontal and vertical FDI motives in the groups of countries analysed. However, in developed, and more precisely, EU countries, horizontal FDI strategies are predominant, whereas for East Asian and emerging countries, there is more evidence in favour of vertical FDI.     

EU enlargement and its impacts on East Asia

Ten countries—most completing their transition from socialist-based economies to market economies—are slated to join the European Union (EU) in 2004 and four additional countries are expected to become members at some future dates. Despite the relatively small economic size of the accession countries, this type of deep integration can have non-negligible effects on countries outside of the preferential zone as the reduction in barriers across partners leads to a re-orientation of trade. In this paper, we evaluate the extent of trade adjustments and the economic impacts it will have on the East Asian economies using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The overall macroeconomic effects on East Asia are small. There is some trade diversion, but there may be an opportunity to increase market penetration in some sectors of the expanding EU for which East Asia has a marked comparative advantage. The paper also assesses the relative importance of linking trade openness to productivity and lowering trade costs between the accession countries and the EU-15.     

China＇s FDI Net Inflow and Deterioration of Terms of Trade： Paradox and Explanation

Starting from the contradiction between China's sustained growth in foreign direct investment (FDI) net inflow and deterioration of the terms of trade, this paper analyzes the characteristics of FDI sectoral structure since the 1990. Moreover, considering the international market competitive environment, this paper gives a concrete analysis of the influence mechanism and concludes that the flowing of FDI into labor‐intensive export sectors caused the deterioration of China's terms of trade. To improve its terms of trade, China needs to direct FDI inflow into capital‐ and technology‐intensive sectors and service sectors. (Edited by Xiaoming Feng)     

Broadband use and trade facilitation: Impacts on bilateral trade of sub-Saharan countries

This paper investigates the direct and combined impacts of trade facilitation and information and communication technology (ICT) on bilateral flows of 25 sub-Saharan countries. For that purpose, we select time to export and import as specific trade facilitation indicators and broadband use to study ICT impacts. Our sample covers a total of 93 countries over the period 2004–2018. By preprocessing data analysis, we impute time costs missing values, an essential shortcoming of the available databases, to study trade facilitation over time. Lastly, we employ a gravity model and implement a Bonus Vetus Estimation. Our results show that broadband use exerts a positive and significant effect on trade, especially relevant for intra-African trade flows. Furthermore, the combined effects indicate that broadband also modulates the negative impacts of time to export and time to import in the case of intra-SSA countries' trade. The more significant result is found for time to export. Our results also confirm that time costs are not only particularly harmful to intra-African trade but also negatively impact trade flows from SSA countries to the rest of the world. These outcomes show the importance of coordinating trade facilitation and digital transformation policies, particularly those devoted to digitally transforming African customs.     

China's Belt and Road Initiative: Can Europe Expect Trade Gains?

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aims to improve cross‐border infrastructure to reduce transportation costs across a massive geographical area between China and Europe. We estimate how much trade might be created among Belt and Road (B&R) countries as a consequence of the reduction in transportation costs (both railway and maritime) and find that European Union countries, especially landlocked countries, will benefit considerably. This is also true for Eastern Europe and Central Asia and, to a lesser extent, South‐East Asia. In contrast, if China were to seek to establish a free trade area within the B&R region, EU member states would benefit less, while Asia would benefit more. Xi Jinping's current vision for the B&R, centered on improving transport infrastructure, is advantageous for Europe as far as trade creation is concerned.     

Openness,Regional Trade Agreements and Growth: Evidence from Asia*

This paper assesses the relationship between regional trade agreements, trade integration and economic growth in 21 South and South‐East Asian countries over the period from 1980 to 2004. We aim to answer the following questions. First, how does the trade policy of a given country (and countries within the same region) affect a nation's domestic growth? Second, should developing economies in South and South‐East Asia engage in regional trade agreements (RTA) or move towards broad liberalization? Our results show that openness of either a single country or of its neighbors does not affect a nation's growth and that the impacts of RTA are unclear (if not detrimental to growth in some cases, once endogeneity is accounted for). Panel Granger‐causality tests running from openness to growth yield mixed results and some conclusions depend on the particular subsample under scrutiny.     

东亚双边出口贸易流量与潜力:贸易引力模型的实证研究

本文利用东亚1995-2004年面板数据建立东亚贸易引力模型,对东亚区域内出口贸易流量的影响因素和潜力进行研究。研究显示,经济规模、中国-中国香港地区更紧密经贸关系(CEPA)、中国-东盟自由贸易区(ACFTA)、经济制度、经济发展水平差距、国际直接投资、国家间地理距离和金融危机是东亚双边出口贸易流量的主要影响因素。     

Foreign Investment in East Asia: A Survey

This article updates the May 1989 literature survey on foreign direct investment (FDI) in the East Asian region published in this journal. Following an overview of trends of FDI in the 1990s, it focuses on three key issues: the impact of the recent Asian economic crisis on FDI inflow relative to other forms of capital inflows; the link between FDI and trade; and technology transfer and adaptation. It is too early to discern the implications of the crisis for host-country policies and investment decisions of multinational corporations, but the indications are that FDI will continue to play a pivotal role in economic transformation, and in regional and global economic integration.     

The Determinants and Motivations of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment: A Spatial Gravity Model Approach

Abstract

The study attempts to investigate the features and determinants of China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) into 138 countries and Chinese firms' investment strategies over the 2003–2009 period using an augmented gravity model with spatial linkages. The respective evaluations of China's OFDI are indicative of the important role played by non-financial OFDI. At the same time, Chinese firms prefer to invest in high-tech industries in developed countries while also focusing on the extraction of natural resources around the world. The empirical findings show that the host country's economic size has a significantly positive effect in terms of promoting Chinese OFDI. Chinese firms favour a complex-vertical platform in the developed countries while they prefer a market potential foreign direct investment (FDI) surrounding the host developing countries and an export-platform FDI in the petroleum exporting countries based on the surrounding market potential effect and spatial effect. The fuel extraction motive plays a key role in China's OFDI in line with the realities of Chinese FDI strategies in recent years.     

Has China Crowded out Foreign Direct Investment from Its Developing East Asian Neighbors？

This paper applies a gravity model to investigate the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in East Asia. Economic fundamentals, such as market size, per capita income and country risk indicators, economic and cultural ties, exchange rate volatilities and information asymmetry are found to be important determinants for FDI. Globally, the inward FDI among high-income OECD economies declined significantly on average over the period of 1990-2003, whereas the inward FDI of the high-income OECD economies in emerging market economies gained substantially. In the East Asian region, the ASEAN-4 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand) received above-average inward FDI from the high-income OECD economies after controlling for their economic fundamentals. By contrast, China's FDI from the high-income OECD economies is below average relative to its economic fundamentals. Therefore, it is difficult to establish that China has crowded out FDI from its developing ASEAN neighbors.     

Assessing the trade impacts of the ASEAN + 6 FTA for Lao PDR

Using an unbalanced panel dataset of bilateral exports from 1992 to 2009, we assess the potential trade impacts of the expansion of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to ASEAN + 3 and ASEAN + 6 on the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). It is found that bilateral exports are positively related to overall bilateral country size and similarity in country size but inversely related to the factor endowment differences, transportation costs, and import tariffs. Simulation results show that the formation of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) between ASEAN and the Plus‐6 economies (the People's Republic of China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea in East Asia; and the other three economies of Australia, India, and New Zealand) could increase bilateral trade between the Lao PDR and ASEAN + 6 by US$1 billion, and ASEAN + 3 by US$981 million. Nonetheless, the trade balance of the Lao PDR is likely to worsen in both the ASEAN + 3 and ASEAN + 6 PTAs because they stimulate more imports than exports.     

Impacts of Sequential Free Trade Agreements in East Asia: A CGE and Political Economy Analysis

Abstract

This paper estimates the economic impacts of the various sequential liberalization scenarios in East Asia, emphasizing the significance of the “sequence” of the liberalization process in computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis. The major findings are as follows: (1) “Sequence” matters in measuring the economic impacts of free trade agreement (FTA) scenarios in the region; (2) Scenario 1 (Korea-China FTA → Korea-Japan FTA → China-Japan FTA) is the sequence maximizing Korea's economic gains, whereas Scenario 3 (Korea-China-Japan FTA) is the one most preferred economically by China and Japan; (3) Korea's FTAs with the United States (US) and European Union (EU) can be evaluated as a preemptive strategic move, causing changes in FTA preferences of Korea and Japan; (4) the prediction of Bond and Baldwin (adjustment cost and juggernaut effect) and that of Evenett et al. (trade diversion effect) are supported by the empirical results that Korea's (China's) expected gains from northeast Asian FTA sequences increase (decrease) after Korea's FTAs with the US and EU are made; (5) predictions about the International Political Economy (IPE) theories (power consideration and domestic politics) upon the sequential FTA formations in East Asia are consistent with the findings above.