我国外贸技术溢出效应的国别差异分析

技术溢出是发展中国家追赶发达国家的重要路径,溢出的渠道包括国际贸易、FDI、R＆D合作、国外R＆D投资等。我们运用经拓展后的Coe＆Helpman的贸易溢出计量模型,试图将我国从商品贸易以及FDI中所获得的技术溢出纳入同一模型中加以综合分析,并对贸易带来的技术溢出效应进行国别差异分析,以判断不同类型国家对我国吸收技术溢出效应的影响。并在此基础上,提出了相应的政策建议。     

On the Policy Implications of Endogenous Technological Progress

One of the most well-known empirical regularities in the R&D-productivity literature is the existence of substantial under-investment in R&D. This strongly suggests that government should actively promote research activities. However, the so-called 'quality-ladders' models of endogenous technological progress are inconsistent with this observation. In an extreme case, Grossman and Helpman (1991, Ch.4) suggest that R&D should always be taxed irrespective of the size of quality improvement. This paper attempts to reconcile these empirical and theoretical findings by showing that the normative results of Grossman and Helpman are not robust.     

The Long-run Growth Effects of Rent-extracting Contingent Tariffs

This paper examines the effects of rent-extracting contingent tariffs in a two-country model of R&D-driven growth without scale effects where firms engage in both horizontal and vertical R&D activities. Unlike a semi-endogenous growth model as Dinopoulos and Segerstrom (1999), government policies can have long-run growth effects. Indeed, a permanent increase in the contingent tariff rate permanently increases or decreases the long-run rate of economic growth. Our main results show that a weak form of tariff imposition comparing to Rivera-Batiz and Romer (1991) sufficiently retards the whole technological progress in the existing industries in the world. The results derived in this paper also parallel to and complement Dinopoulos and Segerstrom (1999).     

Product cycles among three regions with differential R&D abilities

I extend the North–South product cycle model of Grossman and Helpman [Grossman, G. and Helpman, E. (1991b), “Endogenous Product Cycles,” Economic Journal, 101, 1214–1229.] to a three-region model where the region Middle undertakes both innovating and imitating activities in a trading equilibrium. In contrast to Grossman and Helpman [Grossman, G. and Helpman, E. (1991b), “Endogenous Product Cycles,” Economic Journal, 101, 1214–1229.], I find that an expansion in the North's labor force or a rise in the productivity of the North's labor in the research sector incurs no effect on the rate of the South's imitation. Moreover, the long-run relative wage of a region can vary inversely with the size of that region.     

How to promote R&D-based growth? Public education expenditure on scientists and engineers versus R&D subsidies

This paper compares the positive and normative implications of two alternative measures to promote R&D-based growth: R&D subsidies to firms and publicly provided education targeted to the development of science and engineering (S&E) skills. The model accounts for the specificity of S&E skills, where individuals with heterogeneous ability choose their type of education. Although intertemporal knowledge spillovers are the only R&D externality, the analysis suggests that R&D subsidies may be detrimental to both productivity growth and welfare. Moreover, they raise earnings inequality. In contrast to R&D subsidies, publicly provided education targeted to S&E skills are found to be unambiguously growth-promoting and neutral with respect to the earnings distribution.     

A contribution to the theory and empirics of Schumpeterian growth with worldwide interactions

This paper proposes an integrated theoretical and methodological framework characterized by technological interactions to explain growth processes from a Schumpeterian perspective. Global interdependence implied by international R&D spillovers needs to be taken into account in both the theoretical and empirical models. For this task, spatial econometrics is the appropriate tool. The econometric model we propose includes the neoclassical growth model as a particular case. We can therefore explicitly test the role of R&D investment in the long-run growth process against the Solow growth model. Finally, the properties of our spatial econometric specification allow the explicit evaluation of the impact of home and foreign R&D spillovers.     

Agglomeration, innovation and international research mobility

This paper discusses a model of the New Economic Geography, in which the seminal core-periphery model of Krugman [Krugman, P., 1991, Increasing returns and economic geography, Journal of Political Economy 99, 483–499.] is extended by endogenous research activities. Beyond the common ‘anonymous’ consideration of R&D expenditures within fixed costs, this model introduces in an analytically tractable approach vertical product differentiation in combination with a de-integrated R&D sector. In the context of international factor mobility, the destabilizing effects of a mobile scientific workforce are analyzed. Based upon a simple welfare analysis, a consideration of R&D promoting policy instruments and their spatial implications, this paper makes a contribution to the brain-drain debate.     

Does Geographical Agglomeration Foster Economic Growth? And Who Gains and Loses from It?

This paper proposes a two-region model of endogenous growth, which is a natural combination of a core–periphery model à la Krugman and an endogenous growth model à la Grossman/Helpman/Romer. The innovation activity in the R&D sector involves knowledge externalities among skilled workers. Our analysis supports the idea that the additional growth spurred by agglomeration may lead to a Pareto-dominant outcome such that, when the economy moves from dispersion to agglomeration, innovation follws a much faster pace. As a consequence, even those who stay put in the periphery are better off than under dispersion, provided that the growth effect triggered by the agglomeration is strong enough.
JEL Classification Numbers: F43, O18, R11     

MIGRATION AND AGGLOMERATION WITH KNOWLEDGE SPILLOVERS*

In this paper, a Grossman–Helpman–Romer‐type endogenous growth model is developed that incorporates two regions and mobile workers. While the linkage between final goods firms and intermediate goods firms is strong, the linkage between innovation activities and manufacturing activities is weak in our paper. It is possible for the economy to reach either full agglomeration, partial agglomeration, or segmented agglomeration. We find that mobile workers acquire the highest welfare under full agglomeration. However, under segmented agglomeration, the welfare of skilled workers is not necessarily the lowest.     

R＆D、R＆D溢出、内生增长和内生收敛

根据强调知识与技术创新、知识与技术溢出重要性的当代内生增长理论，本文建立了一个将R＆D和R＆D溢出与资本积累之间、R＆D和R＆D溢出与总产出增长之间直接关联起来的动态模型。面板数据协整检验实证分析结果表明R＆D和R＆D溢出与资本积累之间、R＆D和R＆D溢出与总产出增长之间分别存在显著的正面长期协整关联。进一步的分析表明，R＆D与资本积累之间、R＆D与总产出增长之间分别存在显著的长期双向格兰杰因果关系。由此观知，R＆D乃长期经济增长源泉之所在。另一方面，尽管资本积累或总产出增长并不格兰杰导致R＆D溢出，证据表明R＆D溢出格兰杰导致资本积累和总产出增长。这种由R＆D溢出到资本积累和总产出增长的单向格兰杰因果关系意味着尽管知识与技术的跨国传播并非必然发生。其实为世界经济增长的重要动力。     

Welfare and growth impacts of innovation policies in a small, open economy; an applied general equilibrium analysis

We explore how innovation incentives in a small, open economy should be designed in order to achieve the highest welfare and growth. The computable general equilibrium model we develop for the purpose allows for research and development (R&D)-driven endogenous technological change embodied in varieties of capital. We study policy alternatives targeted towards R&D, capital varieties formation, and domestic investments in capital varieties. Subsidising domestic investments, thereby excluding stimuli to world market deliveries, generates less R&D, capital formation, economic growth, and welfare than do the other alternatives, reflecting that the domestic market for capital varieties is limited. In spite of breeding stronger economic growth, a higher number of patents, and a higher share of R&D in total production, direct R&D support generates slightly less welfare than subsidising formation of capital varieties. The costs in terms of welfare relates to a lower production within each variety firm, which in presence of mark-up pricing results in efficiency losses.     

Multinationals, Endogenous Growth, and Technological Spillovers: Theory and Evidence*

FDI has received surprisingly little attention in theoretical and empirical work on openness and growth. This paper presents a theoretical growth model where MNCs directly affect the endogenous growth rate via technological spillovers. This is novel since other endogenous growth models with MNCs, e.g. the Grossman–Helpman model, assume away the knowledge‐spillovers aspect of FDI. We also present econometric evidence (using industry‐level data from seven OECD nations) that broadly supports the model. Specifically, we find industry‐level scale effects and international knowledge spillovers that are unrelated to FDI, but we also find that bilateral spillovers are boosted by bilateral FDI.     

A dynamic model of R&D competition

This study considers a dynamic model of R&D competition in a situation of no uncertainty with identical firms in a perfect foresight. We are going to find out about the effects of firms' absorptive capacity on R&D strategies in the presence of technological spillovers. The conditions for the existence and uniqueness of a feedback–Nash equilibrium on firms' R&D expense will be also discussed. Numerical simulations will show as the introduction of the absorptive capacity reduces the impact of spillovers degree on firms' R&D strategies.     

Collective learning,innovation and growth in a boundedly rational,evolutionary world

We formulate a simple multiagent evolutionary scheme as a model of collective learning, i.e. a situation in which firms experiment, interact, and learn from each other. This scheme is then applied to a stylized endogenous growth economy in which firms have to determine how much to invest in R&D, where innovations are the stochastic product of their R&D activity, spillovers occur, but technological advantages are only relative and temporary and innovations actually diffuse, both at the intra and interfirm levels. The model demonstrates both the existence of a unique long-run growth attractor (in the linear case) and distinct growth phases on the road to that attractor. We also compare the long-run growth patterns for a linear and a logistic innovation function, and produce some evidence for a bifurcation in the latter case.     

Dynamical analysis of the R&D-based growth model with a regime switch

Several empirical studies suggest that advanced economies experience a growth regime switch from factor accumulation to knowledge accumulation. To investigate the mechanism of such a regime switch, this study develops a concise and flexible dynamic model based on Romer (J Polit Econ 98:S71–S102, 1990) by introducing two types of endogenously supplied R&D input capital. The model replicates the growth patterns of developed and underdeveloped nations, clarifies the important role that capital plays in the difference between them, and presents several implications for interest-rate subsidies and official development assistance. Further, it shows that if a country enjoying long-run growth has little initial capital, its initial economic development will be based on capital accumulation. When the capital stock becomes sufficient for supporting R&D, the economy will achieve long-run growth through R&D.     

North–South Trade, Income Distribution, and Welfare Effects of R&D Policy

The paper considers an extension of the Flam and Helpman model of North–South trade in which the government of South organizes and pays for R&D activity to reduce the production cost of quality-differentiated products. The main conclusions are the following: South has a welfare incentive to initiate R&D activity under some conditions on effectiveness of R&D in improving the technology. By doing so, South can increase the production of higher-quality differentiated products. North suffers a welfare loss from this R&D except in the case where the effectiveness of South's R&D activity is unusually high.     

Too Much of a Good Thing? The Economics of Investment in R&D

Research and development is a key determinant of long-run productivity and welfare. A central issue is whether a decentralized economy undertakes too little or too much R&D. We develop an endogenous growth model that incorporates parametrically four important distortions to R&D: the surplus appropriability problem, knowledge spillovers, creative destruction, and duplication externalities. Calibrating the model, we find that the decentralized economy typically underinvests in R&D relative to what is socially optimal. The only exceptions to this conclusion occur when the duplication externality is strong and the equilibrium real interest rate is simultaneously high.     

A “Managerial” trade union and economic growth

By setting up a simple Romer-type [Romer, P.M., 1989. Capital accumulation in the theory of long-run growth. In: Barro, R.J. (Ed.), Modern Business Cycle Theory. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA] endogenous growth model embodying a political trade union (rather than the traditional economic labor union), this paper explores the effects of unionization on unemployment, growth and welfare by highlighting the essence of internal conflict within the union. It is shown that the conflicting interests between the leadership and membership within the union play a decisive role in the unemployment, growth and welfare effects of unionization. Given the fact that taxation is another potential candidate besides unions in explaining the poor performance of a macro-economy, we re-examine the taxation effects within the growth model with equilibrium unemployment caused by the presence of the trade union and compare our findings with those for the traditional full-employment growth model. In general, we find that the taxation effects of income and consumption crucially depend not only on the institutional arrangements for taxing unemployment benefits, but also on the way the government budget is balanced.     

International spillovers of R&D and marginal social returns

This study analyzes marginal social and private returns of R&D investment through the impact of international spillovers of R&D stocks. We compare the marginal social with marginal private returns using data of 27 OECD and EU countries from 1995 to 2008. We consider two channels of R&D spillovers: embodied in trade flows and disembodied by bilateral technological proximity. We find that marginal social returns on R&D are much larger than the marginal private returns for R&D‐intensive countries, in the embodied spillover channel. We also find that the embodied spillover channel through import flows is more important than the disembodied channel.     

International R&D spillovers and institutions

The empirical analysis in “International R&D Spillovers” [Coe, D., Helpman, E., 1995. International R&D Spillovers. European Economic Review, 39, 859-887] is first revisited on an expanded data set that we have constructed for the purpose of this study. The new estimates confirm the key results reported in Coe and Helpman about the impact of domestic and foreign R&D capital stocks on TFP. In addition, we show that domestic and foreign R&D capital stocks have measurable impacts on TFP even after controlling for the impact of human capital. Furthermore, we extend the analysis to include institutional variables. Our results suggest that institutional differences are important determinants of TFP and that they impact the degree of R&D spillovers. Countries where the ease of doing business and the quality of tertiary education systems are relatively high tend to benefit more from their own R&D efforts, from international R&D spillovers, and from human capital formation. Strong patent protection is associated with higher levels of total factor productivity, higher returns to domestic R&D, and larger international R&D spillovers. Finally, countries whose legal systems are based on French and, to a lesser extent, Scandinavian law benefit less from their own and foreign R&D capital than countries whose legal origins are based on English or German law.