发挥信贷调节作用 稳定农村货币流通

(一)在我国,信用集中于银行,货币投放与回笼都是通过银行信贷程序实现的,信贷活动调节着货币流通。从总量上看,信贷既是市场货币流通的“投放口”,又是货币流通的“回流阀”。银行增加贷款或减少存款,会直接或间接地增加货币流通量;反过来,控制贷款投放或大力组织存款,就会相应地减少市场货币流通量。从内部活动的范围、方向看,信贷活动左右着货币流通,例如,对农村贷款扩大,流向农村的货币也就随之增多;而投向农业生产     

2006年海南省货币信贷运行特征、存在问题和建议

2006年,海南省居民储蓄存款小幅增长,企业存款快速上升,存款总体稳定性下降,贷款适度增长但投放波动幅度大,中长期化趋势明显,信贷投放地区集中,基础设施和社会发展领域贷款增加较多,货币信贷运行总体平稳但信贷投放波动偏大、信贷结构的非均衡性更加突显.针对这些特征和存在的问题,笔者提出紧扣发展主题、加快产品和服务创新、开拓新业务增长点的建议.     

2010年1～9月国内金融形势评述

2010年前三季度,货币信贷市场平稳运行,金融体系持续稳定健康。主要特点是：货币增速总体呈回落态势;人民币贷款投放平稳,中长期贷款需求保持旺盛;企业存款和储蓄存款增速由降转升;银行间市场交易活跃,市场利率总体有所回升;人民币汇率弹性增强,9月末海外市场对人民币升值预期比上年末有所减弱。     

2010年8月国内金融形势评述

2010年8月,货币信贷市场平稳运行,金融体系持续稳定健康。主要特点是：广义货币M2增速有所回升,狭义货币M1增速继续回落;人民币贷款投放平稳,中长期贷款少增较多;企业存款和储蓄存款多增较多;银行间市场交易活跃,市场利率继续有所回落;人民币汇率弹性有所增强,海外市场对人民币升值预期稳定。     

2010年7月国内金融形势评述

7月份货币信贷平稳增长,金融体系持续稳定健康。主要特点是:广义货币M2和狭义货币M1增速继续回落,回落幅度有所减缓;人民币贷款投放平稳,中长期贷款占比上升较多;企业存款和储蓄存款净减少较多;银行间市场交易活跃,市场利率明显回落;人民币汇率运行平稳,海外市场对人民币升值预期有所减弱。     

把握信贷政策取向 促进国民经济进一步好转

1997年下半年以来，为拉动经济增长，促进宏观经济发展目标的实现，国家运用了降低利率、扩大基础货币、增加贷款等多种旨在激活社会总需求的货币信贷政策措施。各家银行积极贯彻落实中央政策意图，加大了信贷投放力度，整个国民经济正在不断向好的方向发展。本文拟结合现代货币信贷理论和当前我国国民经济运行的特性，对应如何正确定位信贷政策措施取向进行探讨。 　　一、正确把握信贷投向，发挥信贷对国民经济的支持作用 　　当前，从社会供求关系上看，一方面总体上社会总供给大于总需求，生产供给过剩；但另一方面在某些领域，仍存在短…     

2011年1月国内金融形势评述

2011年1月份,国内金融体系保持平稳运行,货币信贷继续向常态回归。主要特点是：广义货币M2和狭义货币M1增速双双回落,现金投放正常;贷款增量少于上年同期,中长期贷款少增较多;春节因素致使企业存款和储蓄存款增速呈现为＂一升一降＂态势;银行间市场交易保持活跃,市场利率明显上升;与上年末比,人民币汇率升值0.51%,海外市场对人民币升值预期明显减弱。     

2010年上半年国内金融形势评述

上半年货币信贷增速平稳回落,金融体系保持健康,有力地巩固了经济向好的局面。主要特点是：广义货币M2和狭义货币M1增速高位持续回落;人民币贷款同比少增较多,投放均衡性明显增强;企业存款增速明显减缓,储蓄存款由分流转为回流;银行间市场交易活跃,市场利率明显上升;人民币汇率运行平稳,海外市场对人民币升值预期比上年末有所减弱。     

继续加强宏观控制千方百计吸收存款

今年上半年,我国国民经济在改革中稳步前进。各级银行认真贯彻国务院关于严格控制贷款规模和货币投放的指示,加强宏观控制,支持微观搞活,收到了一定效果,去年四季度出现的信贷投放过猛和货币投放过多的势头已经开始扭转。     

对欠发达地区金融机构贷款增量的调查与思考

贷款增量一直是当前政府评价当地金融机构对地方经济贡献大小的核心指标,也是企业和社会各界普遍关注的热点。本文在调查的基础上,分析了货币信贷投放中存在的主要问题,并就做好信贷增量投放工作提出了相应的政策建议。     

The effect of monetary policy on real estate price growth in China

Using quarterly data from 1998:Q1 to 2009:Q4 and monthly data from July 2005 to February 2010, this paper examines the impact of key monetary policy variables, including long-term benchmark bank loan rate, money supply growth, and mortgage credit policy indicator, on the real estate price growth dynamics in China. Empirical results consistently demonstrate that expansionary monetary policy tends to accelerate the subsequent home price growth, while restrictive monetary policy tends to decelerate the subsequent home price growth. These results suggest that Chinese monetary policy actions are the key driving forces behind the change of real estate price growth in China. We also show that hot money flow does not have a significant impact on the change of home price growth after controlling for the money supply growth. Finally, a bullish stock market tends to accelerate subsequent home price growth.     

The effect of monetary policy on real estate price growth in China

Using quarterly data from 1998:Q1 to 2009:Q4 and monthly data from July 2005 to February 2010, this paper examines the impact of key monetary policy variables, including long-term benchmark bank loan rate, money supply growth, and mortgage credit policy indicator, on the real estate price growth dynamics in China. Empirical results consistently demonstrate that expansionary monetary policy tends to accelerate the subsequent home price growth, while restrictive monetary policy tends to decelerate the subsequent home price growth. These results suggest that Chinese monetary policy actions are the key driving forces behind the change of real estate price growth in China. We also show that hot money flow does not have a significant impact on the change of home price growth after controlling for the money supply growth. Finally, a bullish stock market tends to accelerate subsequent home price growth.     

Interest rate and liquidity risk management and the European money supply process

The monetary setup of the European Central Bank (ECB) centers around short-term securities repurchase agreements (repos) which ensure the flexibility of its money market management. However, a flexible repo-based monetary policy exposes banks to both interest rate risk and liquidity risk. This paper investigates the consequences for the money supply process and the conduct of monetary policy. We develop a loan supply model with maturity transformation and show how banks respond when future monetary policy is expected to become tighter or more uncertain. Our results also shed light on the rationale behind the use of different pricing rules in the ECB's repo auctions.     

Identification of a loan supply function: A cross-country test for the existence of a bank lending channel

Using the theoretical predictions of the Bernanke–Blinder [Bernanke, B.S., Blinder, A.S., 1988. Is it money or credit or both or neither? Credit, money, and aggregate demand. American Economic Review 78, 435–459] model, we seek to examine the existence of a bank lending channel through the empirical identification of a loan supply function and to assess the impact of differential bank characteristics on banks’ ability to supply loans. To this end, we estimate a loan supply model and test for the restrictions implied by perfect substitutability between loans and bonds in bank portfolios. Estimations are carried out on bank panel data for six OECD countries, the results showing that a bank lending channel is at work in only two of them. Moreover, we find that the relevance of bank characteristics is hardly a decisive factor in the identification of a loan supply function.     

金融机构票据融资发展问题探析及建议

近几年,我国票据市场的票据签发量和贴现量均大幅增加,整体呈现快速发展趋势。但票据量及价格的大幅、频繁波动,也影响了票据融资功能的正常发挥。本文通过实证分析发现,贴现余额增量与实际信贷余额增量以及货币供应量M1余额增量均呈反向变化趋势,表明贴现量变化对货币供应量的调控产生了一定的负面影响。其主要原因在于,信贷考核指标中包含了票据贴现数量,票据贴现成为贷款数量调节器。为此,文章就如何完善金融机构票据管理,进而促进票据市场健康发展提出了相关建议。     

基于“六月货币荒”现象的反思与启示

自2008年爆发国际金融危机以来,对于金融市场的货币供给而言,中央银行先后实施适度宽松和稳健的货币政策,保证了银行体系流动性的充分供给;商业银行保持着低不良贷款率和正常杠杆率,也不会明显削弱其贷款创造能力以及货币供给水平;个人偏好和支付便利导致公众在特定时段更多地持有通货的行为,即使有削弱货币乘数的作用,其影响也是极其轻微和短暂的.因此可以断定,“六月货币荒”并非真实的货币荒,而是某些货币表象的欺骗性所致.“六月货币荒”现象的重要启示是,中央银行的货币政策意向要更加透明,商业银行要加强流动性风险管理和资产负债管理,公众要权衡个人偏好和支付便利与持有通货的货币性成本等诸多因素.这是消除货币表象的欺骗性,避免类似“六月货币荒”现象的出现,以及防止道德风险和逆向选择的基本要求.     

货币因素、供给冲击与中国通胀动态特征

本文将以货币供应量和汇率为代表的货币因素、供给因素以及需求因素引入菲利普斯曲线建立了新凯恩斯混合菲利普斯曲线,并利用1995年第1季度～2013年第2季度的数据来实证分析不同因素对于我国通货膨胀动态衍化的影响。研究表明：前瞻性预期与通货膨胀惯性对于我国通货膨胀的影响同时存在,但是前瞻性预期对于我国通货膨胀的影响较大;其次,货币供应量变动对于我国通货膨胀率影响具有最重要的作用,而代表需求因素的产出缺口以及代表供给冲击的原油价格对于我国通货膨胀的影响很小;最后,人民币实际汇率升值对通货膨胀可以产生一定的抑制作用,但作用不大。     

关于中国货币流通速度对通胀影响的几个事实的研究

该文比较研究了中国、美国和欧元区不同时期货币流通速度的变动特征。研究发现：货币流通速度在经济和金融危机期间急剧下降,使得巨量的货币供给在短期内并不会带来严重通货膨胀;货币流通速度通常会受到资产价格上升的抑制,在一定条件下,资产价格上升与通货膨胀之间存在替代关系;货币流通速度在长期（10年以上）呈U型,中国可能已经进入货币流通速度的上升期,等量的货币供应可能对应更高的通胀水平。     

银行损失、资本缓冲与货币政策效果

基于中国银行业1998-2010年面板数据,本文检验银行的损失对贷款供给的影响,并分析资本缓冲(buffer)和货币政策态势(stance)在这种影响中的作用,以进一步考察货币政策效果。经验结果表明:银行损失会导致贷款供给减少,这种影响在银行资本缓冲较少或货币政策紧缩时更明显,在危机时期这种影响也更明显;当资本缓冲较高时,货币政策紧缩使得贷款增长下降较多;货币政策对维护银行业稳定具有重要的作用。     

Banking and interest rates in monetary policy analysis: A quantitative exploration

The paper reconsiders the role of money and banking in monetary policy analysis by including a banking sector and money in an optimizing model otherwise of a standard type. The model is implemented quantitatively, with a calibration based on US data. It is reasonably successful in providing an endogenous explanation for substantial steady-state differentials between the interbank policy rate and (i) the collateralized loan rate, (ii) the uncollateralized loan rate, (iii) the T-bill rate, (iv) the net marginal product of capital, and (v) a pure intertemporal rate. We find a differential of over 3% p.a. between (iii) and (iv), thereby contributing to resolution of the equity premium puzzle. Dynamic impulse response functions imply pro- or counter-cyclical movements in an external finance premium that can be of quantitative significance. In addition, they suggest that a central bank that fails to recognize the distinction between interbank and other short rates could miss its appropriate settings by as much as 4% p.a. Also, shocks to banking productivity or collateral effectiveness call for large responses in the policy rate.