沪深股市周末效应实证分析

周末效应也可称作星期效应，是指证券市场一周中各交易日收益率的差异。周末效应包括两大子效应，即“收益率周末效应”和“波动性周末效应”。西方学者将周末效应与市盈率效应、市净率效应、小公司效应等称为市场异例现象。市场异例导致投资者可以凭借过去信息获得额外收益。投资者根据一周期内各日收益率的差别，在高收益日卖出，低收益日进，从而使有效市场假说（EMH）失效。     

中国股票市场投资者交易偏好及其对股价波动的影响

本文利用2005～2008年深圳A股市场的数据,对各类投资者的交易偏好及其差异、交易偏好与股价波动的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明：（1）机构投资者比个人投资者更偏向于交易大盘股、高价股、低市盈率股和非ST股。各类个人和机构之间的交易偏好存在显著的差异,其中月末平均持股市值在100万元以下的个人投资者对小盘股、低价股、高市盈率股、ST股的偏好程度比其他个人投资者高;（2）无论是按规模、价格、市盈率、是否ST股对股票进行分类后利用Panel固定效应模型,还是应用一般回归模型进行分析,结果都表明,个人交易偏好程度高的股票的波动大于偏好程度低的股票,而机构投资者则相反;在大部分同类型股票中,个人和机构交易量的增加均会强化股价波动,但机构投资者交易量变化对收益波动的影响系数远大于个人。个人投资者的交易偏好及其对波动的影响显示其面临的风险可能较大．加强投资者教育、培养专业化理财队伍并鼓励个人通过专业机构进行投资显得尤为重要。     

高管公平性偏好、私人控制权收益与公司价值——来自A股上市公司行业基准的经验证据

文章以2007-2011年我国A股上市公司为样本,探讨了高管将其私人控制权收益在同行业内做比较时所产生的公平性感受对公司价值的影响,揭示了高管公平性偏好的作用机理。研究发现:(1)相对于股权分散或者存在股权制衡的公司,股权集中公司高管控制权收益绝对额及控制权收益-公司价值敏感性较高,而额外控制权收益的分布情况却与之大相径庭。国有控股公司的高管控制权收益绝对额均值最大,但额外控制权收益均值较小;而家族控股公司的高管控制权收益绝对额均值最小,但额外控制权收益均值较大。(2)控制权收益绝对额与额外控制权收益的激励方向相反。相对于股权分散或者存在股权制衡的公司,股权集中公司高管控制权收益绝对额显著降低公司价值,而正向额外控制权收益显著提升公司价值,负向额外控制权收益则显著降低公司价值。     

异质性财富偏好和资产定价

Bakshi和Chen（1996）在代表性投资者经济中提出了基于财富偏好的资产定价模型。本文研究了在异质性投资者经济中财富偏好对资产定价的影响。如果风险资产的价格服从几何布朗运动，那么资产市场具有两基金分离现象。本文首先证明了基于风险基金的资产定价模型，然后使用该模型证明了如果定价的基准是单个的投资者的最优消费和财富时，那么基于财富偏好的资产定价模型成立。但是，当定价的基准是总消费和总财富时，基于财富偏好的资产定价模型不能成立。也就是，不能在异质投资者经济中将Breeden（1979）的经典CCAPM模型推广到包含财富偏好的资产定价模型。     

会计信息失真的原因及提高会计信息的对策

1．部分会计人员屈从领导的压力，被动造假，从而使会计信息失真。 企业产权中有政府、债权人、所有者、经营者和其他与企业相关的个体等几大主体。政府最关心税收的征缴；债权人最关注其债权是否有按时地收回本金和利息；所有者关心的是自己投入的资产能否保值和增值；经营者关心业绩的增加是否能为自己带来额外的经济收益；证券市场上的投资者关心股票的价值和公司的业绩。由于他们具有不同的行为目标和经济特征，存在着不同的利益驱动，     

科技型企业创业风险、堑壕效应与控制权配置

将创业者事后敲竹杠和创业成功后堑壕效应的前向延伸作为影响因素，构建模型对科技型企业创业过程中投资者和创业者之间风险分担、收益分配及控制权配置的影响进行分析。结果发现：完全信息下创业者最优努力水平和帕累托最优风险分担可以实现，投资者和创业者主要矛盾前移至创业开始前的收益分担；信息不对称下帕累托最优风险分担不可能实现，创业者有动机通过采取降低努力水平、事后敲竹杠和事前堑壕效应行为取得额外收益，以此分散人力资本风险；创业者首先倾向于选择后两种行为获取更高的控制权配置收益，失败时将倾向于回到降低努力水平选择上。因此，投资者适度分权可避免创业者出现降低努力水平的行为，从而提升创业成功概率。     

社保基金持股上市公司的股权融资偏好

社会保险基金的投资行为在一定程度上可反映出国家政策走向,因此,受到市场投资者的关注。而社保基金的投资信息只能通过其持股上市公司的信息公布才得以披露。这些上市公司为增加机构投资者的持股比例,提前将信息泄露给其他机构投资者,公司股价会产生一个在信息披露之前反应的超额收益,损害了中小投资者利益。     

投资组合构建与优化：投资者偏好和遗传算法视角

投资组合构建过程可以分为资产选择和资金配置两个步骤。资产选择取决于投资者偏好，以及投资者获得的知识或信息，资金配置可以利用Markowitz投资组合理论和遗传算法等模型来确定。通过刻画A股市场上存在的特定投资者偏好，选出拟投资的股票组合，然后分别利用Markowitz均值-方差模型和遗传算法计算各个股票最佳的资金配置比例，并用历史数据回测不同资金配置比例下股票投资组合的收益，发现遗传算法下构建的最优组合在收益、风险、夏普比率、最大回撤等方面均优于均值-方差模型下构建的最优组合。     

中国商业银行竞争力实证分析

基于因子分析法对当前中国银行业竞争力态势所做的实证分析表明：（1）四大国有商业银行的盈利能力明显不如股份制商业银行；（2）四大国有商业银行在市场规模方面具有绝对优势；（3）四大国有商业银行的资本管理能力落后于已上市的股份制银行。由此得出四大国有商业银行的综合竞争力介于已上市股份制银行与未上市股份制银行之间。     

我国上市公司融资结构与公司治理

一、相关理论概述 （一）企业融资、资本结构、法人治理的必然逻辑关系 现代企业金融理论认为，企业的融资方式通过对企业各利益相关主体的激励行为以及企业发生破产概率的影响对企业的收益和价值产生影响；当企业内部的管理者和外部投资者之间在企业的现有资产价值和投资项目收益预期等方面存在信息不对称时，企业融资方式选择及资本结构的变化也就成为外部投资者预测企业业绩的一个指标，融资方式及资本结构的变化也会影响投资者对企业投资的信心，     

流动人口生育意愿、性别偏好及其决定因素——来自全国四个主要城市化地区12城市大样本调查的证据

基于课题组2009年进行的全国四个主要城市化地区12个大中小城市流动人口调查的微观数据,考察了流动人口的生育意愿和性别偏好,特别是研究了影响流动人口生育意愿的决定因素。流动人口同城市人口在生育数量偏好上已经不存在明显差距,但性别偏好观念上仍有显著差异;较农村人口,流动人口生育数量偏好明显要小,男孩偏好也要弱。流动人口的年龄、性别、婚姻状况、受教育程度、健康状况、工作类型和居住类型对生育意愿有显著影响。     

资产管理中客户偏好的研究——兼论考虑偏好条件下基金的评估

本文探讨了资产管理中确定客户偏好和根据客户偏好选择最适合客户的资产配置方案的方法 ;并给出一个资产管理中关于波动风险偏好的随机动态模型 ,推广了R .C .Merton( 1 970 )的模型。原模型是关于消费和投资组合的动态经济模型。笔者修改了效用函数和约束方程 ,去掉消费变量并加入波动风险偏好因素 ,得到风险资产的比例和客户波动风险偏好的关系 ,以及和时间偏好之间的关系。最后论述了在考虑投资者偏好条件下 ,证券投资基金的评估方法 ,以及实际案例。     

An Economic and Ethical Approach to Charity and to Charity Endowments

We examine how and why donors divide gifts between people in the present (across distance) and between the present and future (across time). US donors tend to give less to charities that benefit the poor and more to charities that benefit the non-poor (such as museums, universities, and arts organizations). Many of these wealthier charities have created endowments that benefit not only present persons, but also future persons. We develop a shorthand framework for linking time to distance in charitable allocations that incorporates a “proximity preference,” i.e., charity that prefers those who are nearer to us whether by reason of physical distance, psychic-identity, or temporal distance. Even though ethical considerations suggest that recipients' level of need should be the dominant factor in allocating gifts, donors also express preferences, ceteris paribus, for benefits arriving sooner rather than later, and for recipients who are ``closer'' rather than farther away.     

Early-Life Circumstances Predict Measures of Trust among Adults: Evidence from Hunger Episodes in Post-War Germany

Can a major shock in childhood permanently shape trust? We consider a hunger episode in Germany after World War II, and we construct a measure of hunger exposure from official data on caloric rations set monthly by the occupying forces, providing regional and temporal variations. We correlate hunger exposure with measures of trust using data from a nationally representative sample of the German population. We show that individuals exposed to low caloric rations in childhood have significantly lower levels of trust as adults. This finding highlights that early-life experiences can have long-term effects in domains other than health, where such effects are well documented.     

Environmental Risk and Averting Behavior: Predictive Validity of Jointly Estimated Revealed and Stated Behavior Data

We conduct predictive validity tests using revealed and stated behavior data from a panel survey of North Carolina coastal households. The application is to hurricane evacuation behavior. Data was initially collected after Hurricane Bonnie led to hurricane evacuations in North Carolina in 1998. Respondents were asked for their behavioral intentions if a hurricane threatened the North Carolina coast during the 1999 hurricane season. Following Hurricanes Dennis and Floyd in 1999, a follow-up survey was conducted to see if respondents behaved as they intended. A jointly estimated revealed and stated behavior model indicates that the hypothetical and real evacuation behavior is based on the same choice process. Using predictions from this model with a hypothetical bias correction, we find that it predicts actual evacuation behavior with a small forecast error. These results suggest that stated behavior data has some degree of predictive validity.     

我国农民市民化的经济学思考

从成本和效益出发,从政府和农民偏好、外部性等角度对农民市民化过程中的供需进行分析,得出了供需双向不足、政府偏好主导农民市民化、农民偏好不彻底市民化、外部性没有得到约束或激励等结论,并在总结的基础上提出了相应的对策建议.     

Preference Anomalies,Preference Elicitation and the Discovered Preference Hypothesis

There is wide-ranging evidence, much of it deriving from economics experiments, of ‘anomalies’ in behaviour that challenge standard preference theories. This paper explores the implications of these anomalies for preference elicitation methods. Because methods that are used to inform public policy, such as contingent valuation, are based on standard preference theories, their validity may be called into question by the anomaly data. However, on a new interpretation, these anomalies do not contradict standard theory but are errors in stated preference that can be expected to disappear as people become more experienced in relevant decision environments. We explore the evidence for this interpretation and what implications follow for preference elicitation methodology. JEL classifications: C91, D01, D60, D81, D83, H40     

Revealed stochastic preference: a synthesis

Summary. The problem of revealed stochastic preference is whether probability distributions of observed choices in a population for various choice situations are consistent with a hypothesis of maximization of preference preorders by members of the population. This is a population analog of the classical revealed preference problem in economic consumer theory. This paper synthesizes the solutions to this problem that have been obtained by Marcel K. Richter and the author, and by J. C. Falmagne, in the case of finite sets of alternatives, and utilizes unpublished research of Richter and the author to give results for the non-finite choice sets encountered in economic consumer theory.Received: 13 March 2003, Revised: 11 February 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D1, C6.The preparation of this paper was supported by the E. Morris Cox endowment at the University of California, Berkeley. I am indebted to Robert Anderson, Salvador Barbara, Werner Hildenbrand, Rosa L. Matzkin, and Aviv Nevo for useful suggestions and comments. I am especially indebted to Marcel K. Richter, who was the source of many of the ideas and arguments contained in this paper.     

Choices, situations, and happiness

This article explores some conceptual issues in the study of well-being using the traditional economic approach of inferring preferences solely from choice behavior. We argue that choice behavior alone can never reveal which situations make people better off, even with unlimited data and under the maintained hypothesis of 100% rational choice. Ancillary assumptions or additional forms of data such as happiness measures are always needed. With such ancillary assumptions and additional data, however, the use of revealed preference to study well-being can be significantly improved, so that the choices people make can jointly identify preferences, mistakes, and well-being.     

基于普惠型与特惠型物品分类的 政府筹资方式选择

我国财政支出增长与居民享有的政府提供的物品或服务之间，未能实现共生式发展的矛盾越来越突出。本文认为根源在于政府筹资方式与政府提供的物品或服务的性质不相称。政府提供的物品或服务性质不同，理应采用不同的筹资方式，否则会引起政府提供的物品或服务过多或过少，缺乏效率与公平。具体来说，普惠型物品应该采用一般税筹资，而特惠型物品应该采用收费筹资。