技能型技术进步、南北贸易与工资不平衡

本文试图将技能型技术进步与产业内贸易置于一个框架中对工资不平衡现象进行理论解释。自由贸易通过促使发达国家产品质量阶梯提升型的技术进步而加剧了该国的工资不平衡程度;同时,自由贸易通过促使发展中国家产品种类数增加型的技术进步而加剧了该国的工资不平衡程度。南北贸易在拉大相对工资差距的同时促进了技能型技术进步。     

Relative wages and trade-induced changes in technology

We develop a model where trade liberalization leads to skill-biased technological change, which in turn raises the relative return to skilled labor. When firms get access to a larger market, the relative profitability of different technologies changes in favor of the more skill-intensive technology. As the composition of firms changes to one with predominantly skill-intensive firms, the relative demand for skilled labor increases. This way, we establish a link between trade, technology and relative returns to skilled and unskilled labor.     

贸易自由化、有偏的学习效应与发展中国家的工资差异

本文构建了一个模型来研究贸易自由化对熟练劳动力与非熟练劳动力工资差异的影响,从而解释发展中国家工资差异之谜。在贸易自由化之后,发展中国家接触和学习到相对多的与熟练劳动力匹配的技术知识,因此,和生产与非熟练劳动力匹配的技术知识相比,生产与熟练劳动力匹配的技术知识的生产力水平上升相对较多。也就是说,学习效应是有偏的。因为技术知识的生产是熟练劳动力密集型的,所以学习效应会导致对熟练劳动力需求的增加,扩大工资差异。同时,有偏的学习效应会使技术进步更偏向于技能密集型,从而进一步导致对熟练劳动力需求的增加,扩大工资差异。     

New Technologies And The Demand For Heterogeneous Labor: Firm-Level Evidence For The German Business-Related Service Sector

This paper investigates the impact of modern information and communication technologies on the demand for heterogeneous labor. It starts with an interrelated factor demand system. The ‘desired’ level of employment which is needed in such models, is derived from a Generalized Leontief cost function with quasi-fixed factors. Firm-level, cross-sectional data taken from an innovation survey in the service sector are used in the empirical analysis. The model is estimated by a trivariate ordered probit model. Evidence in favor of skill-biased technological change in the fast-growing German business-related services sector is found. ‘Ibe paper suggests a new method of calculating skill-specific and firm-specific labor cost from information on total labor cost and the share of each skill group in total employment only.     

Patterns of Skill Premia

This paper develops a model to analyse how skill premia differ over time and across countries, and uses this model to study the impact of international trade on wage inequality. Skill premia are determined by technology, the relative supply of skills, and trade. Technology is itself endogenous, and responds to profit incentives. An increase in the relative supply of skills, holding technology constant, reduces the skill premium. But an increase in the supply of skills over time also induces a change in technology, increasing the demand for skills. The most important result of the paper is that increased international trade induces skill-biased technical change. As a result, trade opening can cause a rise in inequality both in the U.S. and the less developed countries, and thanks to the induced skill-biased technical change, this can happen without a rise in the relative prices of skill-intensive goods in the U.S., which is the usual intervening mechanism in the standard trade models.     

The Impact Of Technological Change On Employment: Evidence From A Firm-Level Survey Of Long Island Manufacturers

Recent studies of capital-skill complementarity suffer from several important empirical limitations and a theoretical framework that treats technological change as exogenous. This paper addresses some of these limitations using a new, detailed firm-level dataset on technology usage and labor composition. Based on two-stage estimation procedures, our results imply that technological change leads to a shift in labor composition and compensation in favor of white-collar workers.     

New technology and old institutions: An empirical analysis of the skill-biased demand for older workers in Europe

Using panel data from nine European countries over the period 1970 to 2007, we examine the impact of information and communication technology (ICT) on the demand for older workers (aged 50 and over). We find evidence of a decrease in demand for older workers in the 1970s and 1980s. It can be argued that the impact of ICT on demand for older workers is skill-biased. However, the skill-biased demand for older workers is mainly reflected in the skill-biased changes in employment shares rather than relative wages. There is some evidence of a gradual deskilling of older workers. We find that labour market institutions such as the national minimum wage, social pacts on wage issues and union density mostly benefit skilled older workers, while coordination of wage setting, extension of collective agreements, social pacts on pensions and centralisation of wage bargaining can alleviate the adverse effects of skill-biased technological change.     

逆向外包与技能偏向性技术进步

经济新常态和新工业革命背景下,中国经济迫切需要通过技术创新,尤其是技能偏向性技术进步的创新来实现经济增长方式的转变和产业结构的升级。文章根据后金融危机时期中国企业加快海外并购等典型事实,基于李嘉图框架构建了包含逆向外包的一般均衡模型,从理论上论证了逆向外包作为一种后发国家集聚全球创新资源的新方式,能够弥补后发国家高技能劳动力的不足,诱导企业采用更加偏向技能劳动力的生产技术,进而对后发国家的技能偏向性技术进步产生促进作用。利用制造业16个细分行业2003－2011年样本数据的实证检验表明,本土制造业企业主导的逆向外包显著促进了制造业的技能偏向性技术进步,FD I和人力资本供给的增加加速了技能偏向性技术进步的形成和发展。文章的研究不仅丰富了现有的关于技能偏向性技术进步和逆向外包的全球化理论,对中国制造创新方式的转变和经济结构的调整也具有重要的启示。     

Creative Destruction and the Rise of Inequality

Common wisdom interprets the rise in inequality of the last two decades as the result of a skill-biased labor demand shift. This explanation does not account for two important observations: (i) within-group inequality has also markedly risen, and (ii) the rise of inequality has been accompanied by a rise of the volatility of earnings. This paper argues that a dual labor market structure, where some workers are paid efficiency-wages can account for the empirical regularities, in the absence of skilled biased technological change. The analysis demonstrates that an unbiased innovation, as well as North–South trade, can contribute to the efficiency wage premium, and thus to wage inequality, by increasing labor turnover.     

Theory-driven facts and the growth in earnings inequality

It is widely accepted that the rise in U.S. wage inequality can be explained by skill-biased technological change: workplace computerization produced demand shifts that worked with a simply supply and demand “vision” of the labor market than with direct statistical evidence, which is remarkably limited. Indeed, the dominance of this elementary textbook vision has led, I argue, to a conflation between statistical facts and “theory-driven” facts—those statements about reality that are selected, interpreted, or simply created to confirm a vision of the way things work. The paper concludes by outlining an alternative explanation of the growth in wage inequality based on a sharply different, Gordonian, vision of the labor market.     

技术变化、要素替代和贸易对能源强度影响的实证研究

本文运用1981—2005年的投入产出时间序列数据,采用超越对数生产成本函数估计了我国制造业20个部门能源、非能源、资本以及劳动的份额方程,对我国制造业20个部门的技术变化、要素替代以及贸易和能源强度之间的关系作了实证研究。计量检验的结果表明,技术变化、要素替代、贸易、一次能源结构和部门结构变化是引起能源强度变化的重要因素。     

有偏技术进步、要素替代与创新溢出效应——2000—2017年中国工业经验分析

在要素替代框架下，构建一个有偏技术进步的超越对数成本函数模型，利用2000—2017年中国工业面板数据估计有偏技术进步对创新溢出效应的影响。结果发现：资本和能源有偏技术进步对创新溢出存在显著负向效应，劳动有偏技术进步对创新溢出存在显著正向效应，而中间品有偏技术进步对创新溢出的正向效应不显著。进一步将要素替代弹性变量纳入模型后发现，当资本、劳动、能源和中间品替代弹性临界阈值分别高于2.864 0、5.234 1、6.453 2及4.163 9时，有偏技术进步对创新溢出具有显著正向效应。上述发现表明，技术进步遵循具有比较优势的创新资源，本质上有利于提升创新溢出效应。     

Trade,Wages, and Specific Factors*

In this paper, we use a multisector specific‐factors model with sector‐specific capital and two mobile factors, skilled and unskilled labor, to examine the effects of trade, technology, and factor endowments on the skill premium in US manufacturing industries. Based on this model and data for the US manufacturing sector from 1958–96, we calculate changes in the skill premium and then carry out a decomposition to identify the changes caused by product price changes (trade), technological progress, labor, and capital endowment changes. The decomposition reveals that trade effects, working through product price changes, caused the skill premium to increase moderately. Changes in capital endowments (new investments) had a positive effect on the skill premium, with the strongest impact during the 1980s, while the effect of technological change on the skill premium varied over time. Finally, changes in relative labor endowments had a negative effect on the skill premium.     

Trade,skill-biased technical change and wages in Mexican manufacturing

This article looks at the relative importance of competing stories, particularly trade liberalization and skill-biased technical change, to explain changes in the skill premium and the real wages of unskilled and skilled workers in Mexican manufacturing using plant-level data. The channel through which technical change is observed is changes in the domestic price of machinery and equipment due to the availability of new and cheaper machines. The analysis also looks at trade-induced skill-biased technical change by taking into account changes in the price of machinery and equipment caused by changes in the tariff rate specific to machinery and equipment. Instrumental variables, including the price of machinery and equipment in the United States, are used to determine causality between the above effects and wages. Thus, the article provides evidence for some recent findings in the literature that link trade liberalization, skill-biased technical change occurring through technology embodied in machines and increases in the skill premium.     

The macroeconomic impact of foreign labour influx into the industrialized nation state and the complementary policies

This paper makes a numerical assessment on the macroeconomic impact of foreign labor influx into the industrialized nation state allowing free trade in goods but imposing an immigration quota on labor, and then explores the complementary policies for the impact of foreign labor influx. One of the main findings is that immigration itself brings welfare gains only if prices are flexible, but a skill-biased intake policy can bring a much larger welfare gain. The complementary policy options to boost welfare gains by immigration increase are monetary expansion, adopting foreign components more, and influencing foreign demand for intermediate goods indirectly by inviting foreign direct investment. For these policies to cope, the destination country should try to correct the market structure so that prices can be flexible.     

产业规模与比较优势发展战略:一个理论框架

本文根据经典的国际贸易理论发现,对于发展中国家,实行自由贸易的结果是两大产业的技术水平都上升,但劳动密集产业的规模扩张,而资本密集产业的规模收缩.因此,主要从产业规模角度、同时结合技术角度的分析,在理论上更为全面,政策上也更具可行性.据此,文章着重在比较优势的框架内探讨了产业规模、就业与技术三者间的相互影响机制,提出了在战略选择上的两个"两难选择",并认为比较优势发展战略能够较好地解决这两个"两难选择".     

Effects of North–South trade on wage inequality and on human-capital accumulation

This paper develops an endogenous growth model with technological knowledge directed towards high- versus low-skilled labour, augmented with North–South international trade of intermediate goods and with human-capital accumulation, to analyse how trade affects wage inequality and the inter-country human-capital gap. Trade is a vehicle for inter-country technological-knowledge diffusion and human-capital accumulation interacts with the intra-country direction of technological knowledge arising from trade. In contrast with the market-size effect, stressed in the skill-biased technological change literature, the operation of the price channel following openness to trade predicts, in line with the recent trends in developed and developing countries, an increasing technological-knowledge bias towards high-skilled human capital. This, in turn, decreases inter-country gaps of technological knowledge and human capital and increases intra-country wage inequality. Also in line with recent empirical evidence, inter-country wage convergence is induced by the trade-opening level effect.     

The macroeconomics of the quiet revolution: Understanding the implications of the rise in women’s participation for economic growth and inequality

We study the impact of the rise in female labor supply on the economic performance of the United States over the period 1967–2002 through the lens of a calibrated structural model. The model features all the key forces behind the increase in female participation (the “Quiet Revolution”): (1) the decline in marriage rates, (2) the narrowing gender wage gap, (3) the preference (or cultural) shift towards market work, and (4) the change in women’s bargaining power within the household. We find that preference shifts and the rise in relative wages of women were the most important driving forces behind rising women’s participation, while changes in marriage patterns have also had a sizeable effect. We conclude that half of the growth in US earnings per capita over this period can be traced to growth in female labor supply. We also find that the rise in female labor supply has had offsetting effects on income inequality and, therefore, its overall role has been negligible relative to skill-biased demand shifts and rising residual wage volatility.     

Education,sectoral composition,and growth

Growth accounting exercises using standard human capital measures are limited in their ability to attribute causal effects and to explain growth. This paper develops a model of growth and schooling consistent with these decompositions but with less unexplained growth. The theory distinguishes between three different sources of education gains: (1) supply shifts, (2) skill-biased technical change increasing demand within industries/occupations, and (3) skill-biased technical change caused by the introduction of new skill-intensive industries/occupations. The third source leads to the large sectoral shifts and the largest growth effects. Quantitatively, schooling contributions account for 24 percent of wage growth, with both the direct (i.e., supply driven) causal contribution of schooling and the indirect causal (i.e., technology induced) contribution playing substantial roles.     

Trade Liberalization and Wage Inequality: Evidence from the U.S. States

This paper examines the relationship between trade liberalization and wage inequality for 50 U.S. states during the period from 1999 to 2008. The Difference-in-Differences and fixed effects methods are employed to evaluate the effect of trade liberalization on wage inequality in the U.S. states. Empirical results reveal that trade liberalization and de-unionization do increase the wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers. Evidence shows skill-biased technological change has no significant impact on rising wage inequality. As Difference-in-Differences estimation on time-series cross sectional data involves many years, the conventional standard errors often understate the standard deviation of the estimators. This paper employs the standard bootstrapping procedure and the clustering error procedure to correct the problem, and all sign patterns still hold.