金融脱媒：商业银行的策略选择

长期以来，间接融资是我国融资的主要渠道。但上世纪90年代以来，随着我国经济市场化水平不断提高和金融市场不断完善，非银行金融机构利用新的金融产品，不仅与商业银行争夺存款市场，而且还争夺银行的优质客户。一些优质客户凭借自己的信用直接绕过银行这个传统的信用媒介，通过发行股票和债券等方式从金融市场上取得较为便宜的资金，使得我国金融市场结构发生了变化：直接融资地位上升，间接融资地位下降，即出现了金融脱媒现象。这一融资非中介化行为将对我国商业银行未来经营产生重大的影响。     

对中国金融深化的分析

本文运用金融深化理论,讨论中国金融深化过程,中外金融深化的比较和中国金融深化的重点。文章认为中国金融改革促进了经济的货币化程度逐步提高,金融相关率逐渐增长;金融机构组织不断创新;金融市场健康发育成长;利率改革稳步推进。这个过程正是中国金融不断深化的过程。但与发达国家比较,中国的金融深化过程明显存在问题,就是中国金融资产构成畸偏;金融机构数量大量增加,但组织结构不完善;金融机构的资产规模大大增加,但资产负债结构失调;利率体系结构存在问题,利率缺乏弹性;金融市场发展不平衡,存在明显的“跛行”现象。因而我国金融深化的重点应该是,加快发展直接融资工具,增加直接融资比重;完善商业银行体制,提高资产质量,改善资产负债结构;平衡发展金融市场、规范和完善市场规则;建立有弹性的利率机制,实现利率市场化     

金融脱媒对我国资本配置效率的影响分析

与现有绝大部分文献不同的是,本文认为,金融脱媒不只是资金需求的去银行化,还包括资金供给的去银行化.在阐释相关理论的基础上,本文首先将非金融机构对金融机构的资产和负债进行了综合处理并得到了我国的金融脱媒指数,然后通过DEA法和Malmquist指数测算了我国的资本配置效率.接着,本文运用SVAR模型等计量方法实证研究了金融脱媒对我国资本配置效率的影响效果.结果表明:金融脱媒对配置效率的影响存在“期限结构效应”,即金融脱媒在短期内能显著促进我国配置效率的提高,但这种促进效应持续时间较短并在中期内转为抑制效应;长期来看,金融脱媒并未明显改进我国的资本配置效率.最后,本文分析了结论的形成原因并提出了相关政策建议.     

关于金融脱媒背景下的证券投融资分析

从长远看,金融脱媒将有利于资产证券化业务的发展.而资产证券化又进一步可使金融机构增强抵御风险的能力,充分发挥其金融中介作用,提高资本管理的效率.在这种背景下,本文首先概述了金融脱媒与资产证券化的相关理念,进而分析了金融脱媒背景下资产证券化的意义,最后给出了金融脱媒背景下证券投融资的建议.     

整顿金融秩序 要求金融创新另辟蹊径

<正>目前,社会上对整顿金融秩序看法不一.部分人片面地认为,整顿金融秩序影响了金融创新,影响了银行实现资产多元化的改革目标,因此,有必要澄清这种糊涂认识。 一、专业银行金融创新的现状 自去年我国确立社会主义市场经济体制以来,专业银行为了更好地发挥在服务市场经济中的作用,实现资产多元化.纷纷成立了信托投资公司、融贸公司、房地产公司、信息咨询公司等非银行性金融机构、并希望以此为突破口,达到金融创新的目的,但从这些通过创新而成立的非银行性金融机构来看,其目的并没有从根本上实现。首先.这些非银行性金融机构与专业银行业务类同,一方面,它们     

金融脱媒对我国货币政策传导机制的影响分析——基于STVAR模型

金融脱媒现象是金融市场发展到一定时期的产物。本文从我国的实际出发界定并度量了金融脱媒指标,采用平滑转换向量自回归(STVAR)模型分析金融脱媒对不同的货币政策传导机制效果的非对称性影响,用一种全新的方法对我国金融脱媒进行更深入的解读。得出结论:金融脱媒的出现弱化了货币政策的信贷传导渠道,却强化了利率传导渠道和资产价格传导渠道的作用,这为我国货币政策调控方式转变提供了借鉴意义。     

金融脱媒背景下中国商业银行发展策略研究

随着中国商业银行经营环境的变化,金融脱媒态势日益显现。金融脱媒在促进商业银行优化资本与公司治理结构的同时,也给商业银行风险管理带来了挑战。因此,商业银行应通过转变经营理念和转换业务经营模式、调整客户结构和资产负债结构、加大金融产品创新力度和加强商业银行与非银行金融机构的合作等措施,实现自身的健康持续发展。     

从内生货币到内生金融:后凯恩斯主义货币金融理论的发展与启示

后凯恩斯主义从反向因果关系和金融创新两个维度诠释了货币内生的机理和过程,但却由于把关注焦点集中于传统商业银行而受到Palley的批评,后者提出用内生金融概念取代内生货币以涵盖非银行金融机构的流动性创造.尽管非银行金融机构创造的负债可以代替货币执行交易媒介的职能,然而其流动性终究是虚拟的,离不开商业银行"真正"流动性的参与和支持.现实生活中,商业银行和非银行金融机构之间的界限日益模糊,整个金融体系在带来远大于内生货币理论描述的金融弹性的同时,也导致更大的金融不稳定性.后凯恩斯主义从内生货币到内生金融理论的发展,丰富了我们对货币金融本质和规律的认识,为走出中国特色金融发展之路提供了参考和借鉴.     

信息、非正规金融与中小企业融资

各种形式的非正规金融在发展中国家和地区广泛存在。本文认为,由于中小企业信息不透明,且常常不能提供充分的担保或抵押,正规金融机构难以有效克服信息不对称造成的逆向选择问题,而非正规金融则在收集关于中小企业的“软信息”方面具有优势。这种信息优势是非正规金融广泛存在的根本性原因,金融抑制只是一个强化因素,同时非正规金融市场的各种特征也都源于其存在的根本逻辑。本文构建了一个包括异质的中小企业借款者和异质的贷款者(具有不同信息结构的非正规金融和正规金融部门)的金融市场模型,证明非正规金融的存在能够改进整个信贷市场的资金配置效率。     

金融脱媒对商业银行的影响及策略

银行脱媒化,指资金融通逐渐与传统意义上的商业银行相分离,更多地通过证券市场和保险市场进行。金融中介理论认为当信息不对称性和交易成本降低,金融中介将被金融市场替代。“金融脱媒”理论认为银行脱媒的一个重要表现是银行受到股票市场、票据市场以及投资银行的排挤,银行的信贷功能主要是聚集资金的功能被弱化,银行的混业经营将成为未来发展的趋势。     

Liberalisation,Financial Risk,and Formal Financial Participation in Pakistan: Hyperinflationary Microeconomic Responses to Moderate Volatility in a Developing Economy

With formal financial inclusion much lower than its neighbours, Pakistan has been the focus of intensive efforts to ‘bank’ the ‘unbanked’. Yet, after a drop in deposits in the wake of Pakistan’s 2008 crisis, deposits are still struggling to return to their mid-1990s’ levels. Focusing on distortions in the banking sector, the Central Bank attributes this to ‘crowding out’ amidst a steep rise in the propensity to consume. This study draws on extensive fieldwork, identifying heightened financial risk driven by multifaceted monetary instability since the liberalisation of the rupee and of Pakistani markets. It proposes that heightened monetary risk has translated into a broad-based shift out of the rupee akin to hyperinflationary responses, but revealed in relatively moderate monetary conditions. It argues that, exposed to global markets, national currency itself has become a risky asset, pushing store-of-value and transactional holdings into unconventional liquid assets. This suggests that monetary stability, expressed in the currency itself and in broader pricing patterns in the economy, is key to the uptake of financial intermediation. The issue at the root of disintermediation in Pakistan, it is argued, is less one of ‘crowding out’ than of disruption to the role of national currency as money itself.     

基于金融脱媒机理的商业银行业务转型

随着经济金融体制改革向纵深推进和金融领域的全面对外开放，中国商业银行正经历着前所未有的经营环境巨变，脱媒趋势日益显现。金融脱媒只是经济发展到一定阶段对银行传统中介功能提出的挑战，中国商业银行可从开展零售银行业务、拓展中间业务、开拓网络银行业务、推动商业银行的综合经营等方面进行业务转型来应对脱媒。     

Which Vested Interests Do Central Banks Really Serve? Understanding Central Bank Policy Since the Global Financial Crisis

Inspired by Thorstein Veblen’s ideas, I analyze the behavior of central banks from the perspective of how institutions are captured by vested interests. Since the global financial crisis in 2008, there has been a shift in the conduct of monetary policy. Much like the behavior of asset holders themselves, who, in times of crisis, sought to trade off lower returns with more stable asset values, monetary policy changed from a de facto policy of stabilizing rentier income to one of preserving asset prices or rentier wealth. I analyze this particularly through the lenses of what happened with quantitative easing (QE) in the US, which coincided with a collapse of real interest rates, while asset prices were stabilized. This can also be seen in the way the banking sector was supported by QE where the market for mortgage-backed securities was sustained even as it actually meant a lower profitability for the overall U.S. banking sector during the QE interventions.     

中国金融资产结构演进:1991—2007

1996年本文第一作者曾分析了以间接融资为主的中国金融资产结构给经济带来的一系列问题。经过十余年的金融改革,中国的金融资产结构是否有所改善?目前中国的金融资产结构是否能适应并促进中国经济的发展?本文以中国货币市场和资本市场发展为主线,在重新度量中国金融资产总量的基础上,对以上问题进行了讨论。本文研究表明,在金融改革过程中,中国金融资产结构有了明显改善,但也产生了一些新问题,需要继续完善货币市场和资本市场,以促进金融资产结构调整。未来十年,我国金融市场发展的最佳路径是市场的双向开放。     

The effect of financial liberalization on banking sector stability

Several studies indicate that financial liberalization increases likelihood of a financial crisis without distinguishing between a normal period, unstable period preceding the onset of banking panics and crisis/post period. We explain in this paper the relationship between financial liberalization and banking sector vulnerability. Then, we argue that banking sector turmoil is most likely to occur after an intermediate degree of liberalization. Using a recently updated dataset for financial reforms, we find an inverted U-shaped relationship between liberalization and the likelihood of banking crisis for a sample of 49 countries between 1980 and 2010. We used a multinomial logit model in order to take into account what is called the ‘post crisis bias’. We ask whether the relationship remains when institutional characteristics of countries and dynamic effects of liberalization are considered. The empirical results indicate that the relationship between liberalization and banking sector stability depends strongly on the strength of capital regulation and supervision. With very weak regulation and supervision, the probability of banking crises is increasing with liberalization but this relationship is reversed as regulation and supervision become significant. The most important type of liberalization in relation to banking crises seems to be operational. A policy implication is that positive growth effects of liberalization can be achieved without increasing the risk of a banking fragility if appropriate institutions are developed.     

存量视角下的中国金融中介比率测度:1992-2006年

对1992-2006年中国金融中介存量比率的实证分析发现,尽管非金融部门外部融资中银行信贷的高度垄断地位被逐渐削弱,但仍表现出高度依赖银行体系的贷款状况;而政府外部融资的来源则发生了结构性改变,市场中介融资已经成为政府融资最主要的来源,并由此导致金融中介在政府外部融资中的地位不降反升。此外,尽管非银行金融中介机构有了长足发展,但从相对资金融通的视角着眼,它还远远无法和银行抗衡。制约变迁约束下各部门经济行为的变化对融资机制有着重要影响。     

Banks,Financial Markets and International Consumption Risk Sharing

In this article, we explore how characteristics of the domestic financial system influence the international allocation of consumption risk in a sample of OECD countries. Our results show that the extent of risk sharing achieved does not depend on the overall development of the domestic financial system per se. Rather, it depends on how the financial system is organized. Countries characterized by developed financial markets are less exposed to idiosyncratic risk, whereas the development of the banking sector contributes little to the international diversification of consumption risk.     

Bank efficiency and industry growth during financial crises

Financial crises pose many problems for growth, and in this time of increasing financial instability it is important to fully understand why this happens. Many papers have analyzed the relationship between growth and a country's level of financial development using private credit, which leads to several unexpected problems. However, very few have used bank efficiency to gauge the development of the financial sector. The aim of this paper is to analyze the effect of bank efficiency on value-added growth of industries that were most dependent on external financing during the financial crisis. Specifically, it uses the data envelopment analysis (DEA) method to measure the efficiency of the banking sector across countries, according to the empirical strategy offered by Rajan and Zingales (1998). Our main result shows that bank efficiency relaxed credit constraints and increased the growth rate for financially dependent industries during the crisis. This finding shows the great but overlooked importance of bank efficiency in mitigating the negative effects of financial crises on growth for industries that are most dependent on external financing.     

Real estate prices and systemic banking crises

The collapse of real estate prices has historically jeopardized banking stability and triggered systemic banking crises. This paper studies risk contagion in a banking system in real estate price shock by adopting complex network theory. Modelling the real estate-related asset as a common exposure of banks to the real estate market, we propose a model that incorporates two main risk contagion channels, i.e., the financial network and asset fire sales, and reveal how the real estate price shock is transmitted and propagated across banks. We demonstrate that banking stability is highly sensitive to the real estate price shock. Moreover, due to the particularly low liquidity of the real estate market, the asset fire-sales of real estate assets overwhelms the financial network, playing the dominant role in risk contagion. Our model can be adopted by regulators to conduct stress testing and to forge effective risk management strategies.     

Sudden stops, banking crises and investment collapses in emerging markets

We evaluate whether financial openness leaves emerging market economies vulnerable to the adverse effects of capital reversals (“sudden stops”) on domestic investment. We investigate this claim in a broad sample of emerging markets during the period 1976–2002. If the banking sector does not experience a systemic crisis, sudden stop events fail to have a significant impact on investment. Bank crises, on the other hand, have a significant negative effect on investment even in the absence of a contemporaneous sudden stop crisis. We also find that openness to capital flows worsens the adverse impact of banking crises on investment. Our results provide statistical support for the policy view that a strong banking sector which can withstand the negative fallout of capital flight is essential for countries that open their economies to international financial flows.