市场占有率预测的好方法——马尔可夫预测法的实证分析

随着我国加入WTO，市场竞争日趋激烈，为在竞争中立于不败之地，各企业势必要预测本产品在市场上占有的份额。本文以实证法介绍了马尔可夫市场占有率预测方法的应用步骤。     

带输入的吸收马尔可夫链在经济预测中的应用

在日益激烈的企业竞争中,预测产品寿命和市场销售情况对企业进行科学的市场决策,使企业立于不败之地,起着举足轻重的作用。利用带输入的吸收马尔可夫理论建立了预测模型,对厂家的某一产品的寿命和市场销售情况进行有效的预测,从而为企业对产品的调整与销售情况分析提供了可靠的决策依据。     

对企业财务预测管理与创新的思考

随着社会经济的发展,现代企业经营与管理的环境发生了巨大变化。财务预测是财务管理的重要环节之一,也是财务管理的首要环节。鉴于财务管理工作环境的持续变化,需要企业财务管理者不断地更新财务管理的观念,提升财务管理的水平,使企业在竞争激烈的市场中始终处于不败之地。财务管理做为企业管理的核心,必须要适应形势的变化,进行全方位的创新。在当前充满竞争、风险和战略发展的市场环境中,企业建立、健全财务预测管理体系是提高和优化管理水平、实现企业长期战略发展目标的保证,同时也为财务管理其他环节的正确性奠定基础。     

基于马尔可夫模型的燃料油期货价格预测实证研究

我国是世界上第二大能源消费国,及时准确预测石油价格是我国政府与相关企业降低能源成本和风险控制的重要一环。本文通过建立预测燃料油期货价格的马尔可夫模型,对上海期货交易所的燃料油期货价格预测进行实证研究。研究结果表明,同市场价格对比后能够确定符合期货市场的模型参数,并且随着模拟数量的逐渐增大,价格产生的波动率逐渐减小。因此,经过修正的马尔可夫模型能够预测燃料油期货价格的长期走势,这将为我国政府、相关企业和投资者进行燃料油价格预测提供理论参考依据。     

石油期货价格预测研究

石油期货是依附于石油的一种衍生工具,其价格是市场对未来油价的预期,准确预测石油期货价格成为政府、企业和研究者关注的重要领域。文章综述了国内外关于石油期货价格预测的研究模式、方法与现状,并探讨了该领域进一步研究的方向。     

我国通货膨胀趋势预测

在社会主义经济运行中,一些产品价格政府部门规定其多年不变,或者在对较多产品实行价格管制的同时,又支付大量的价格补贴,使供给的名义货币量超过实际需要的货币量部分,不能被价格的上涨所吸收,从而使一部分供给过量的贷币则作为贷币的储存型通货膨胀沉淀下来。我们知道通货膨胀的基本形态有两种:     

基于BSG的生产计划系统结构的产品预测系统设计

本文通过企业竞争模拟的生产计划系统结构的初步分析，探讨了产品预测系统的过程，并提出了产品预测系统设计的要点。     

竞争导向与企业定价

近年来,面对激烈的市场竞争,为争夺市场份额,国内各企业围绕产品价格展开了激烈的厮杀。价格大战是猛剂,却未必是良方。面对激烈的竞争,如何保证企业定价策略的合理、有效 ?本文将从竞争导向定价的角度,探讨激烈市场竞争下企业价格策略取向的问题。 　　一、定价策略的竞争导向 　　成本、顾客、竞争是企业定价考虑的三个基本要素,也由此产生了企业价格策略的三种导向,即成本导向、顾客导向和竞争导向。成本导向定价是指企业以产品成本为基础,加上一个合理的利润额作为产品价格的定价思想。这种定价导向的缺陷是产品价格难以适应激…     

商业企业销售预测与决策系统开发

在竞争目益激烈的市场经济条件下，企业的销售预测和库存管理越来越成为商业企业重视的经营活动。由于销售活动所涉及的许多问题的复杂性和不确定性，所以需要研发有关企业销售决策系统来辅助制定销售决策。本文立足于此，主要阐述了如何实现商业企业销售预测与决策系统开发。     

清单计价模式下的成本预测

当今的建筑市场竞争非常激烈,建筑企业要获取更多的项目,项目成本预测则为一项十分关键的工作,成本预测不仅是投资决策的基础,还是后期项目成本管理的依据.新修订的2008版工程量清单计价规范进一步完善了建筑市场,规范了建筑市场参与各方的行为,对建筑企业进行项目成本预测也提出了更高的要求.从对成本预测的要求出发,归纳、总结了定量性成本预测常用的五种方法,提出了根据成本构成要素不同分别采用不同预测方法进行成本预测的思想,成本预测的程序.     

出行须知“天气预报”—介绍“假日旅游信息预报系统”

也许是人们对1999年国庆期间的旅游狂潮记忆犹新：10月3日的泰山游客达到6万人;青岛崂山旅游的车辆堵塞10余公里……又或许是2000年“五一”那极富中国特色的全民大出游和人满为患的旅游景区让人们如此印象深刻。相比较之下,2000年国庆的情况就让人们更加始料不及：据估算,四川12个主要景区接待游客只达到最大接待量的30％;全国其他一些著名景点的游客量均不到最大客容量的一半。“贴钱出团”让施行社将气都出在了“黄金周旅游预报系统”这个“新生儿”身上。其实这是冤枉了旅游信息预报系统,该的产生应该说是由多方面因素造成的的。     

基于最优组合预测模型的港口集装箱吞吐量预测

根据港口集装箱吞吐量非线性增长等特点,建立了三次指数平滑预测模型、灰色系统预测模型及BP神经网络预测模型等单项预测模型。鉴于单项预测模型的局限性,提出了以测试数据的预测误差绝对值加权和最小为最优化准则的最优组合预测模型,采用线性规划的方法确定最优组合的权系数。最后,给出一个实例进行应用和分析。     

Forecasting welding technology

The case for multinational is described. The experience of the CMEA countries in the field is original from the point of view of (a) a general procedure of the forecasters' interaction developed in the permanent system in the followup of trends and the forecasting of welding science and technology; (b) complex use of different kinds of information (expert estimation, patents, publications, etc.); (c) the relation to decision-making in international technological policy.     

Forecasting broadband provision

The provision of broadband telecommunication services in the United States is spatially heterogeneous. Previous studies find that urban locales typically have a larger selection of access platforms and providers when compared to rural or remote areas. Therefore, the ability to forecast broadband provision is important to understanding regional trends in telecommunications competition and availability. This paper provides a comparative analysis of cross-sectional and spatial econometric forecasts of broadband provision, with results suggesting that the integration of spatially referenced demand-side variables significantly improve the accuracy of short and mid-range forecasts.     

On Forecasting Discontinuities

Too much has been written about forecasting trends via “envelope curves.” To plot a straight line on log-paper is a no-brainer. The special phenomenology of phase changes, catastrophes, or “crashes,” and their key evolutionary role is the subject of this article. There is no unique way of forecasting such events, but one indicator is an apparent inconsistency between two or more extrapolations with each other. Alternatively, a catastrophe may be signalled when a trend extrapolation encounters a natural limit. A number of possible discontinuity scenarios are sketched, although overall, the article laments the lack of theorization in forecasting disconuities.     

Forecasting first births

This study is concerned with one aspect of the family cycle, namely, the transition from young married to young married with small children. The focus is on developing models to forecast entries into this latter stage for the purpose of marketing research. "Using ordinary least squares, forecasting models were estimated for (1) total number of first births, (2) number of white first births, and (3) number of nonwhite first births." Models are estimated for both the United States and California using data from official sources.     

Forecasting and Futurology

The Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research has published forecasts of the Australian economy since the late 1960s. These forecasts (usually 12 to 18 months ahead) have been dominated by short-term macroeconomic factors. Compared with when the IAESR commenced its forecasting, there are now many forecasters who concentrate on the performance of the Australian economy over the short term. There is, however, a dearth of regular commentary which focuses on policy options for the medium to long term. This article is the first of many which will aim to fill this perceived gap. In so doing we shall adopt a wider concept of forecasting called futurology. In this approach, many constraints of traditional forecasting are relaxed. In particular, we allow responses by economic agents to policy changes. This will suggest plausible situations in which different outcomes are possible. Our purpose is not to suggest what the future will be, but what it might be under different scenarios. Here, we put together some necessary ingredients to facilitate futurology. We review recent Australian economic performance, consider the implications of meeting a goal of five per cent unemployment by the year 2000 and outline some important influences on likely future growth. We suggest that new growth theory may provide a policy framework to achieve both high growth and low unemployment, noting the constraints imposed by increasing globalisation. In subsequent articles, we shall employ these ingredients to write out plausible timepaths setting out how desirable end-points (including the reduction of unemployment) may be achieved.     

A New Economy Forecasting Method Based on Data Barycentre Forecasting Method

A new and useful method of technology economics, parameter estimation method, was presented in light of the stability of gravity center of object in this paper. This method could deal with the fitting and forecasting of economy volume and could greatly decrease the errors of the fitting and forecasting results. Moreover, the strict hypothetical conditions in least squares method were not necessary in the method presented in this paper, which overcame the shortcomings of least squares method and expanded the application of data barycentre method. Application to the steel consumption volume forecasting was presented in this paper. It was shown that the result of fitting and forecasting was satisfactory. From the comparison between data barycentre forecasting method and least squares method, we could conclude that the fitting and forecasting results using data barycentre method were more stable than those of using least squares regression forecasting method, and the computation of data barycentre forecasting method was simpler than that of least squares method. As a result, the data barycentre method was convenient to use in technical economy.     

业绩预告状况

<正> 上市公司业绩预告制度的变迁过程回顾上市公司对业绩的异常变化情况作出预告有助于提高市场信息获取的公正性,增强上市公司的信息透明度,保护投资者的知情权。2000年12月14日上海