论20世纪90年代日本的景气刺激对策

日本泡沫经济崩溃以后，政府为了刺激经济景气在1992至2000年期间，曾10次推行刺激对策，追加了130多万亿日元的公共投资，但由于种种原因，投资乘数效果降低，经济长期处于低迷，景气刺激对策及其效果值得研究和深思。     

浅析积极财政政策中的投资乘数效应

现行积极财政政策的主要问题不是挤出效应和通货膨胀风险,而是如何通过强化投资决定和提高投资质量,来作大投资乘数,提高政策效率。     

对投资乘数概念表述及表示式的修正

投资乘数是宏观经济学中的一个重要概念。本文首先分析了造一概念的现行表述的缺陷：一是将营业收入全部计入国民收入中，而未扣除其中的原材料消耗和折旧两大项支出；二是储蓄未转化为新增投资；然後借助控制论的框图表示法封投资乘数的概念及表示方式作了修正，指出投资乘数是一定量的非存货投资变动所能最终导致国民收入变动量的比例系数。在修正投资乘数概念後，给出了修正投资乘数的表示方式，并指出，传统投资乘数仅仅是本文修正投资乘数公式的一个特例。     

两种乘数效应之比较:公共型投资与民工回流创业

为了拉动经济发展,我国自1999年以来采取了以积极增加政府主导下投资为主要内容的扩大内需政策。这种公共型投资,有其正面的影响但极易产生"挤出效应",加之我国经济的市场化程度低和没有配套有效的政策应对,使得投资乘数效应没有得到应有的发挥,且产生了一些非经济效果。而回流民工创业,从投资主体的形成和创业的效果来看,都在很大程度上克服了公共型投资产生的弊端。它符合和满足了乘数作用的机理及其基本约束条件,从而大大提高了投资的乘数效应。     

对“投资乘数失灵”的思索

本文从投资乘数入手 ,着重分析了我国近两年来在实行扩张性财政政策的过程中投资效应仍不理想的内在原因。指出在当前我国经济回升乏力 ,投资波及效应、带动效应不理想的形势下 ,为坚持扩大内需启动经济 ,有必要进一步实行扩张性的财政政策 ,并将此政策的运用同启动社会民间投     

基于投入产出表和社会核算矩阵的水利投资乘数效应测算

利用投入产出表和其他数据编制完成的水利投入产出表和水利社会核算矩阵可以用来分析水利投资的乘数效应。经测算表明:与IO乘数分析法相比,SAM乘数分析法在评价水利投资的后向经济效应时可以提供更为全面的信息;水利投资将大幅增加居民收入并对国民经济产生积极的影响;不同水利部门的投资乘数存在较大的差异,了解这种差异有利于水利投资结构的优化;在IO乘数模型中水利投资的GDP乘数为1.022,而在SAM乘数模型中这一乘数为1.238,两者的结果均表明受影响较大的主要是一些重工业、能源与农业部门。     

投资乘数

物理学上的三极管具有放大电讯信号的作用，在经济生活中，也有如此具有因果关系的扩展效应出现在投资、信贷等领域，被称为乘数原理。我们先来认识一下投资乘数。     

武器装备建设投资对地区经济的乘数效应研究

武器装备建设投资作为宏观经济行为中的重要组成部分,通过产生地区乘数效应,刺激当地的产品消费和需求,引起当地经济总量的变化的一系列反应。基于武器装备建设投资对地区经济的"注入"和"漏出"两角度,分析武器装备建设投资地区乘数效应作用途径以及影响因素,并由此得出几点启示。     

年度“投资乘数”测算——以西藏自治区为例

投资乘数是西方经济理论的一个重要概念,反映投资效益的一个重要指标,投资乘数的测算一般有三种方法:固定资产投资法、资本形成法、资本形成总额法。本文分别列出这三种测算方法,并以1993-2014年西藏年度数据为对象,用这三种测算方法,分别以当年价和1993年价为基准测算西藏的年度投资乘数,最后,将得出的结果进行比较分析。     

关于一种投资乘数新算法的探讨——基于CGE的模拟分析

以往计算投资乘数主要采用两种方法,或是建立计量模型并根据乘数的定义来计算从而得到总量的结果,或是利用改进后的投入产出分析法得到结构化的结果.本文尝试利用CGE模型的新算法计算了我国分类居民的投资乘数,得到的结果是城镇居民的投资乘数为2.83,而农村居民的投资乘数为1.35.     

日本财政危机的走势及根源分析

自泡沫经济崩溃以来,日本财政赤字危机日渐严重,虽然2006年稍事好转,却于全球金融危机中,再次深陷财政危机的泥沼。2011年,日本政府为东海岸地震而额外增加的财政支出又使日本雪上加霜。日本陷入财政危机困境的原因主要在于:经济景气、人口老龄化、制度因素、欧美反衬因素、公共投资乘数下降以及维持庞大公共支出规模等6个方面。文末预测日本在今后的几年中,仍无法阻止国债余额的增长,赤字财政危机状况令人担忧。     

Impact of financial development on domestic investment: Evidence from West African countries

This paper investigates the effect of financial development on domestic investment in West African countries. The study uses data from 1985 to 2019 and employs the pooled mean group technique. The main finding of the study is that financial development has a positive effect on domestic investment in the long run but an insignificant effect in the short run. Furthermore, remittances, real GDP per capita and trade openness increase investment rate. The results of causality tests support the view that investment is a channel through which financial development stimulates economic growth. Therefore, it is reasonable for the selected countries to formulate policies that promote domestic credit to the private sector in order to ease liquidity constraints and increase investment and economic growth.     

Investment challenges in the hotel industry in Kigali,Rwanda: Hotel managers' perspectives

Developing countries today compete to attract foreign direct investment to their local hotel industry. Many have therefore already changed their policies on foreign investment in order to compete effectively. Recovering from the 1990s genocide, the Rwandan Government has created an environment conducive to investment, to attract both local and foreign investment finance. This paper discusses the tourism investment policy context in Rwanda. It describes a survey of Kigali hotel managers' perceptions and opinions on challenges for investment in the country's hotel industry. The survey found that the perceived weaknesses of investing in the hotel sector are closely related to problems faced by the Rwandan tourism sector in general, such as the perception that Rwanda is not a safe tourism destination, the lack of skilled labour in tourism services, the lack of finances in the form of loans to potential investors and the lack of adequate tourism infrastructure.     

运行机理、政策依据与农村投行未来

分析定向放贷的农村投行模式运行机理、与农户融资相适宜的动态均衡作用机制、设计机理以及农村金融发展逻辑,以期为农村金融机构创新,提供先行先试的蓝本。寻求合适的金融供给模式,解决农户融资困境,特别是融资困境引起的投资乘数瓶颈,突破现有政策创新的局限及金融机构创新可持续发展的资金约束,探寻农村金融创新的可行性与适应性问题。     

Giving Credit where it's Due: Promoting Financial Inclusion through Quality Credit Unions

Early in 2005, HM Treasury established a Financial Inclusion Task Fund to support initiatives to tackle financial exclusion. It envisages that a substantial proportion of this funding will be allocated to third sector lenders such as credit unions operating in low-income areas. During the 1980s and early 1990s, public investment in credit unions was misdirected. This resulted in community credit unions remaining small and having only marginal impact within financially excluded communities. Since 1999, significant transformation has taken place in the credit union sector, which has resulted in credit unions developing as market-oriented and commercial social enterprises with a capacity to tackle financial exclusion both imaginatively and effectively at a borough wide, city-wide and sometimes county wide level.     

Fund Mobilization and Investment Behavior in Thai Manufacturing Firms in the Early 1990s*

This paper investigates capital structure and investment behavior in Thailand in the early 1990s. Various features of financial markets are considered, and the possibility of applying the ‘pecking order hypothesis’ to developing countries is discussed. By estimating the determinants of the capital structure and the investment functions, three major results are obtained. First, the lower debt ratio of listed firms is realized by an increase in the capital surplus gained by initial public offering. Second, firms’ participation in the securities market accommodates agency costs both in the equity and bank‐loan markets. Third, ‘financial conglomerate’ firms are inactive investors and are dependent upon informal financial transactions, whereas foreign firms borrow less and invest more.     

我国农村基础设施建设对农村经济发展的作用分析与思考

通过对1990年以来我国政府对农村地区基础设施建设财政投入量与农村地区经济发展的增加额的协整分析,本文发现我国对于农村地区基础设施建设的投资对农村地区经济发展具有明显而有效的促进作用,并且在这种促进作用中,基建性的实物投资对于农村地区经济发展的刺激作用会优于货币性的财政补贴支出。基于该分析结果,本文结合我国农村地区的基础设施建设投资现状和农村地区政府部门的运作特点,对我国政府如何更加优化地进行农村基础设施建设投资提出了相应的建议,从而有助于我国农村基础设计建设投资政策的优化和调整。     

Crossing Borders: Foreign Investment and Sentiment in Korea

This study examines the effect of global investor sentiment on capital inflows in the Korean stock and bond markets using textual analysis. First, we conclude that global investor sentiment about Korea causes fluctuations in capital inflows to the Korean stock market. Second, global investor sentiment about Korea causes foreign investors to modify their investments but not by enough to cause drastic changes. Third, positive sentiment about Asia-Pacific countries results in more foreign investment in Korea. The results suggest that research on global investor sentiment provides insight into the determinants of capital flows and has implications for capital flow management policies.