中国式"荷兰病"与中国收入分配问题研究

本文从来源于入世后外向型劳动力密集型产业繁荣的中国式"荷兰病"理论出发,对中国式荷兰病通过体制惰性效应、人民币汇率效应、资源转移效应等对中国收入分配问题的诸多影响进行了深入细致的实证分析.分析发现,在"体制惰性效应"等影响下,中国"国富民穷"、东西部差距以及城乡差距问题日益恶化;但在"人民币汇率效应"作用下,东西部差距存在明显减缓趋势.文章最后建议加快城乡统筹发展步伐,积极推行改善民生和扩大内需的财政税收体制改革,适时扩大人民币汇率浮动区间,从而确保中国经济增长方式顺利转变,以及社会经济健康、协调与可持续发展.     

独立董事的现金薪酬与盈余管理的关系研究

独立董事履行监管职能的同时享有着公司的薪酬补偿,包括股票补偿和现金薪酬。独立董事的现金薪酬具有"激励效应"和"共谋效应"。利用2002—2015年我国上市公司的数据实证分析发现,独立董事现金薪酬影响公司的盈余管理水平,呈现显著正相关关系;独立董事现金薪酬的"共谋效应"占据主导,"激励效应"未能较好地体现,随着独立董事现金薪酬的提高,公司的盈余管理水平也相应提高。同时,引入工具变量进行进一步的稳健性检验,结果支持实证结论。     

房价上涨对企业投资的“抵押效应”和“挤出效应”——来自中国上市公司的证据

本文以Iacoviello(2005)模型为框架,探讨了房价上涨产生的"抵押效应"和"挤出效应",并利用2007-2014年中国上市公司的数据进行经验验证。结论表明:对于融资约束较强的民营企业而言,随着房价上涨,抵押品的价值会增加,使其更容易获得贷款从而扩大投资,即"抵押效应";而对于融资约束较弱的国有企业而言,一方面"抵押效应"并不明显,另一方面由于民营企业的投资增加提高了资本品的价格,从而挤压了国有企业的投资规模,即"挤出效应"。这些结论带来以下政策启示:避免房价的大幅震荡有利于经济的平稳发展;降低企业的融资约束可以降低经济对房地产的依赖;抑制投机需求有利于防止房价过快上涨。     

名义利率与通货膨胀:对我国"费雪效应"的再检验——基于门限回归模型分析

本文利用我国1990年1月至2007年2月的月度数据,通过建立门限模型考察我国是否存在"费雪效应".实证研究的结果发现,模型具有显著的门限效应,且门限数目为2.进一步的分析表明:在不同的通胀水平下,名义利率与通胀之间的关系并不一致.温和通胀状态下,存在部分"费雪效应",通胀率上升1%,名义利率将提高0.43%;高通胀状态下,也存在部分"费雪效应",通胀率上升1%,名义利率仅提高0.23%;而在通货紧缩状态下,"费雪效应"完全不存在,此时名义利率与通胀之间没有显著关系.     

农村劳动力转移效应和谐化研究——基于陕西省的实证分析

利用陕西省农村劳动力转移效应的调研数据,分析当地农村劳动力转移效应不和谐化的表现,结果发现,经济效应不和谐化主要表现为,催生"妇老农业",农业后继者不足;社会效应不和谐化主要表现为,转移劳动力难以融入输入地和转移劳动力家庭和谐度低;环境效应不和谐化主要表现为,输入地"大城市病"的出现和输出地化肥、农药污染严重。为此应采取以下措施:重视农业、农民贡献,培养农业后继者;加快体制改革,消除转移效应和谐化的制度障碍;开展农村社会工作,促进转移家庭和谐;提高城市承载力,加强农村环境保护。     

重构青啤竞争力

<正>在结构优势基础上的青啤开始重新追求规模化效应,强大的盈利能力辅以规模效应,青啤的重新扩张将爆发力十足"消费者是‘佛’。"这是青啤董事长金志国五年前就亮出来的观点。他在青啤"品牌与战略"讲座上的讲话时说了这样一段言辞恳切的话:"青啤以前是信仰自己:我是‘佛’,我做的啤酒是最好的啤酒,你们都应该来     

优秀企业家为何不能“长寿”?

<正> 在决定企业发展和成长的五大因素中,"企业家"是最重要的因素。企业家是市场"创新"和生产要素"新组合"的"灵魂",是人力资本中最关键、最核心的因素。然而——一、第几个"M"最重要?有人把影响企业发展的主要因素归结为五个"M":第一个"M"是 Money(即钱、货币)。中国俗语说:"有钱能使鬼推磨"、"巧妇难为     

东西部用工拉锯战折射产业升级之难

<正>新年之后,各地"用工荒"再度如期而至,东西部用工拉锯战再启。一方面是东部、南部企业用工缺口较大,招人越来越困难;另一方面是中部、西部企业用工需求扩大,农民工开始"回流"中西部,河南、重庆等传统劳动转移大省,不仅省内转移超过省外,而且转移就业差额进一步扩大。正因为争夺的是同一批劳动力,所以才出现了"用工荒"、"招聘难"。争夺同一批劳动力,又说明东部、南部的企业与中部、西部企业还处于同一竞争水平。虽然中部、西部在产业链方面还不如东部、     

资本积累视角下城市郊区化机制及效应探析

试图从资本积累的新视角来分析郊区化产生的动力机制,即郊区化土地"融资"满足资本积累要求;土地"溢出"加速郊区化进度;土地"补贴"吸引产业投入。研究发现,我国与西方郊区化机制上存在明显差异:其一,它反映了资本缺乏和市场不完善条件下的土地"融资"行为,其二,强化郊区化空间生产,同时注重产业的增长。最后,分析了推动郊区化的具体策略,以及由此所产生的空间特征和负面影响。     

“退出权”的制度功能:农业实践与问题讨论

农业产业的落后在我国经济和社会结构中具有典型性,发展现代农业具有全局性意义。本文以"退出权"思路谋求农业发展的直接指向,是形成农民个人土地所有权、农民集体土地所有权和国家土地所有权并存的土地产权结构。"退出权"的农业实践面临一系列理论问题和实践问题,这些问题的甄别有助于人们从纷繁的争论中理清思绪。由此,提出几点操作性构想:迈开新步,准许"试错";用"结构视野"对待土地所有权问题;农民拥有退出其个人土地所有权的权力;以"多样性"格局和"渐进性"路径调整土地所有权结构;土地增值收益的分配是未来土地制度变革的一个重要变量。     

Fake news

This analysis uses Twitter stock and options prices sampled at a 30 s frequency around the fake news announcement, of a bid for a controlling stake in Twitter stock, to investigate how noise trading and informed trading is disseminated into equity and option markets. We find reaction to the fake news occurred in the equity market, and the option market reacted with a delay. This differs from many analyses of actual news events, which found informed traders prefer the options market, and information from their trades then leaks into the equity market. We conclude uninformed traders, and those aware of the hoax, prefer to trade in equity over option markets. This result has implications for isolating informed trading around actual news events.     

Press freedom and jumps in stock prices

Press freedom varies substantially across countries. In a free environment, any news immediately becomes public knowledge through mediums including various electronic media and published materials. However, in an unfree environment, (economic) agents would have more discretionary powers to disclose good news immediately, while hiding bad news or releasing bad news slowly. We argue that this discretion affects stock prices and that stock markets in countries with a free press should be better processors of economic information. Using an equilibrium asset-pricing model in an economy under jump diffusion, we decompose the moments of the returns of international stock markets into a diffusive risk and a jump risk part. Using stock market data for a balanced panel of 50 countries, our results suggest that in countries with a free press, the better processing of bad news leads to more frequent negative jumps in stock prices. As a result, stock markets in those countries are characterized by higher volatility, driven by higher jump risk and more negative return asymmetry. The results are robust to the inclusion of various controls for governance and other country- or market-specific characteristics. We interpret these as good stock market characteristics because a free press improves welfare and increases economic growth.     

Fiscal policy and stock market efficiency: Evidence for the United States

This paper examines the extent to which fiscal policy actions affect the stock market's behavior for the US during 1968–2005. The findings are consistent with the hypothesis that past budget deficits negatively affect current stock returns thus suggesting that the market is inefficient with respect to information about future fiscal policy actions. One interpretation of this ‘disturbing’ result is that market participants do not place much faith on news about the budget deficits as they do not believe that deficits could adversely impact the stock market. Instead, what the market considers most important is news about monetary policy.     

公司风险视角下上市国企管理层股权激励研究

在允许国有控股上市公司实施股权激励的背景下,考察了其不同种类风险与经营者股权激励强度的关系。先界定了风险的类型,再通过构建基于风险的两种股权激励模型,并进一步推导得出：若国有上市企业的管理层不能（可以）买卖公司以外的市场证券组合时,其最优股权激励强度与公司特别性风险成反向变化关系,而与公司整体性风险的相关关系不确定（无关）,这为正在实践中摸索的国有上市企业管理层股权激励合同的设计提供了进一步的理论建议。     

沪深股市在牛市和熊市阶段的波动非对称效应实证分析

本文分别采用EGARCH-M、TGARCH-M模型对沪深股市在牛市和熊市阶段的非对称波动效应进行了分析,这两个模型得出了相同的结论,在牛市阶段利好消息引起股市更大的波动,在熊市阶段利空消息引起股市更大的波动,而且这两个模型同时也说明了我国股市风险和收益的正相关关系,并从我国股票市场交易者构成和交易机制两方面说明了波动非对称的原因。     

Analysis of the effects of settlement of interfirm lawsuits

This study examines the effects of news on settlement of interfirm lawsuits. We hypothesize that the defendant firms suffer damaged reputation as news on the interfirm lawsuit remains in the ‘public eye’, as such ending the litigation process through settlement is good news for the defendant firms. Thus, the stock market will react positively to the defendants when news of a settlement is announced. On the other hand, settlements end the free publicity that the plaintiffs enjoy. In addition the plaintiffs settle for less money than they initially seek. Thus, the implication of a reduced cash flow expectations that the announcement of settlements brings to the plaintiffs will cancel out the positive reputation effect. Therefore, there will be no significant stock market reaction to the plaintiffs when a settlement is announced. Furthermore, the stock market will show no significant reaction to the defendants who have been the subject of more than one lawsuit in a relatively short period of time prior to a settlement because their reputation is too severely damaged to be remedied through removal of their name from the limelight. The results of our analysis support the hypotheses and offer some insight for strategy development. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Relationship Between Stock Market Returns and Technical Efficiency Innovations: Evidence from the US Airline Industry

This paper analyzes the association between two firm performance measures: stock market returns and relative technical efficiency. Using linear programming techniques (Data Envelopment Analysis and Free Disposal Hull), technical efficiencies are calculated for a panel of eleven US airlines observed quarterly from 1970–1990. A relationship, between efficiency news in a quarter and stock market performance in the following two months, is found. A risky arbitrage portfolio strategy, of buying firms with the most positive efficiency news and short-selling those with the worst news during this time frame, results in zero beta risk yet yields annual returns of 17% and 18% for the two methodologies.     

Shifts in volatility driven by large stock market shocks

This paper presents an extension of the stochastic volatility model which allows for level shifts in volatility of stock market returns, known as structural breaks. These shifts are endogenously driven by large return shocks (innovations), reflecting large pieces of market news. These shocks are identified from the data as being bigger in absolute terms than the values of two threshold parameters of the model: one for the negative shocks and one for the positive shocks. The model can be employed to investigate different sources of stock market volatility shifts driven by market news, without relying on exogenous information. In addition to this, it has a number of interesting features which enable us to study the effects of large return shocks on future levels of market volatility. The above properties of the model are shown based on a study for the US stock market volatility.     

Risk reporting and stock return in the UK: Does market competition Matter?

This study examines the extent to which market competition influences risk reporting practice. It also explores how market competition affects the usefulness of risk reporting. The automated textual analysis measures the level of risk reporting [how much to report] and its tone [how it is reported] of UK FTSE 350 firms. The abnormal stock return is used as a proxy for the usefulness of risk reporting. In contrast to the proprietary cost hypothesis, our results indicate that the level of risk reporting is a positive function of market competition. Besides, UK firms are likely to disseminate more (less) negative (positive) news about their risks when market competition increases. However, after examining the informativeness of this reporting, we provide evidence that the level of reported risk information does not significantly enhance the abnormal stock returns of UK firms. Nevertheless, the tone of the reported risks carries incremental information indicative of a firm’s abnormal stock return, especially when market competition decreases. The findings suggest that firms are likely to alleviate their proprietary costs by framing their reporting of risk information in a way that deters potential competitors from entering their market and that market competition diminishes the perceived informativeness of such reporting. The results provide implications for investors as they should not acknowledge the disclosure of higher risk information when asking for more corporate transparency, as it lacks informativeness. Besides, policymakers may impose extra compulsory requirements on the UK firms to avoid reporting overly optimistic risk news to protect investors and avoid the adverse effects of this reporting.     

The Effects of Conservative Reporting on Investor Disagreement

We examine whether the level of a firm's conditional conservatism affects investor disagreement around earnings announcement dates. Investor disagreement is relevant for its repercussions on stock market efficiency. However, the literature related to the effect of firms’ reporting policies on disagreement is scant. Prior research suggests that conservatism, by requiring higher verifiability of profits, constrains earnings overstatements and encourages more complete revelations of losses, thus improving the information environment. In this paper, we further hypothesize that these effects of conservatism enhance news credibility and decrease information asymmetry, particularly for bad news announcements. This results in a lower disagreement and improved interpretation of earnings news. We consistently find that conservatism measures are negatively associated with proxies of announcement-time investor disagreement and that this effect is stronger when the firm is reporting bad news. Additional analyses indicate that the impact of conservatism is stronger when market surprise to the announcement is greater, while it is weaker in the presence of frequent and precise voluntary disclosure that preempts the earnings announcement. Finally, we show that a higher percentage of institutional investors’ ownership and a higher level of commitment to conservatism reinforce the impact of the latter.