Housing Price Forecastability: A Factor Analysis

We examine U.S. housing price forecastability using principal component analysis (PCA), partial least squares (PLS) and sparse PLS (SPLS). We incorporate information from a large panel of 128 economic time series and show that macroeconomic fundamentals have strong predictive power for future movements in housing prices. We find that (S)PLS models systematically dominate PCA models. (S)PLS models also generate significant out‐of‐sample predictive power over and above the predictive power contained by the price–rent ratio, autoregressive benchmarks and regression models based on small datasets.     

A Semiparametric Method for Estimating Local House Price Indices

Spatial autoregressive hedonic models utilize house prices lagged in space and time to produce local house price indices, for example, the spatial and temporal autoregressive (STAR) model might be used this way. This paper complements these models with a semiparametric approach, the Local Regression Model (LRM). The greater flexibility of the LRM may allow it to identify space–time asymmetries missed by other models. The LRM is fitted to 49,511 sales from 1972Q1 to 1991Q2 in Fairfax County, Virginia. The local price indices display plausible and significant variations over space and time. The LRM price indices in selected neighborhoods are shown to differ significantly from those in some other neighborhoods. A new method for estimating standard errors addresses an overlooked problem common to all local price indices: how to evaluate the amount of noise in the estimates. Out-of-sample prediction errors demonstrate that LRM adds significant information to the hedonic model.     

A Metropolitan Transaction-Based Commercial Price Index: A Time-Varying Parameter Approach

This study examines the usefulness of time-varying parameter techniques for constructing reliable transaction-based commercial price indices for metropolitan areas. Time-varying parameter techniques allow the implicit prices of differing quality characteristics to vary intertemporally, overcoming the potential bias imposed by holding implicit prices fixed and simply interpreting time dummy variables as in a conventional hedonic approach. This paper empirically investigates three time-varying parameter methods (Chained, Laspeyres, and Paasche) and considers the potential for sample selection bias. Precision measures are constructed to examine the reliability of the respective indices.     

Assessing the Forecasting Performance of Regime-Switching, ARIMA and GARCH Models of House Prices

While price changes on any particular home are difficult to predict, aggregate home price changes are forecastable. In this context, this paper compares the forecasting performance of three types of univariate time series models: ARIMA, GARCH and regime-switching. The underlying intuition behind regime-switching models is that the series of interest behaves differently depending on the realization of an unobservable regime variable. Regime-switching models are a compelling choice for real estate markets that have historically displayed boom and bust cycles. However, we find that, while regime-switching models can perform better in-sample, simple ARIMA models generally perform better in out-of-sample forecasting.     

中国上海燃料油期货定价模型研究

采用协整理论及基于VAR的Grange因果关系检验与冲击反应函数方法对中国上海期货交易所燃料油期货价格作建模分析。单位根检验显示，选取的样本序列均为I（1）。Granger因果关系检验显示：美原油期货价格，新加坡180燃料油现货价格变量为燃料油期价的Granger原因；上海燃料油期货价格是黄埔现货价格的单向的Granger原因，期货价格对现货价格具有发现作用。最终作出的长期协整方程显示：美原油期货价格，新加坡180燃料油现货价格、欧元汇率与上海燃料油现货价构成长期显著的均衡关系。美原油期货价格对沪燃料油期价的弹性为0．85；新加坡180燃料油现货价格对沪燃料油期价的弹性为0．78；欧元汇率对沪燃料油期价的弹性为1．04。从最终建立动态模型来看，模型有较好的拟合及预测精度。因此，该模型对沪燃料油期价风险控制具有较好的参考作用。     

Berechnung des Xgen unter Verwendung von Regressionsmethoden

The “CPI-X” regulation allows a dynamic adjustment of the revenue cap. The general X factors is a correction term for the consumer price index (CPI), since the CPI does not represent the development of the efficient costs in the network sector. This article shows how the general X factor can be calculated using regression analysis and discusses its applicability in the German regulation context. The results show that the general X factor can be calculated using suitable panel methods, but also shows the practical limits of this approach: panel models often do not converge in short time series. In addition, regression analysis can only provide a prognosis for the future general X factor if stable economic and regulation conditions can be assumed. This is currently not the case in the German regulatory context.     

Measuring the interrelationships between concentration and price cost margins

The interrelationship between concentration (CR) and price cost margins (PCMs) are measured to test whether changes in structure (as measured by CR) occur prior to changes in performance (as measured by PCMs), or whether changes in PCMs occur prior to changes in CRs. The former relationship is consistent with the market power “doctrine,” while the latter is consistent with the “interventionist” view of the monopoly problem. A sample of 41 four-digit SICs having relevant product markets and consistent concentration ratios were collected for the intercensus periods from 1947–1977. Two generalized least square models were estimated, each containing a lead, concurrent and lagged independent variable for two functional forms: CRs as a function of: PCMs and PCMs as a function of CRs. The introduction of the lead variable in both functional forms or equations to the corresponding unrestricted model added significantly to explaining variations in the dependent variables. This result implied that a bidirection relationship existed between concentration and profits and that both the price elevation and cost reduction hypothesis have wilidity. This same time series approach could be applied to individual industrles or a dominnt firm within a industry. If a single hypothesia beat deacribed the firm’s altructure and performunce, evidence used in anlltrual euforcement could be simplified considerably.     

Can Tightness in the Housing Market Help Predict Subsequent Home Price Appreciation? Evidence from the United States and the Netherlands

This article assesses the predictive power of variables that measure market tightness, such as seller's bargaining power and sale probabilities, on future home prices. Theoretical insights from a stylized search‐and‐matching model illustrate that such indicators can be associated with subsequent home price appreciation. The empirical analysis employs listings data on residential units offered for sale through a real estate broker in the Netherlands and for certain U.S. regions. Individual records are used to construct quarterly home price indices, an index that measures seller's bargaining power and (quality‐adjusted) home sale probabilities. Using conventional time‐series models we show that current sale probabilities and bargaining power can significantly reduce home price appreciation forecast errors and help to predict turning points in local area housing markets. The measures and approaches in this article help to demonstrate ways in which researchers and practitioners can leverage listings data to gain knowledge about the current and future state of the housing market.     

U.S. Office Market Values During the Past Decade: How Distorted Have Appraisals Been?

The leading time series of real estate returns is the Russell-NCREIF (RN) Property Index. The RN series tracks returns, cash flow plus appraised capital gains, for multiple property types. To evaluate the accuracy of the capital-gains component of the office-market return series, this paper constructs two benchmark measures for the present value of projectable office-market cash flows from 1982 to 1991 and compares these with a real value series based on the RN capital-gain component. The RN-based series runs 30% above the highest of the benchmarks throughout the 1986–1989 period. While this overstatement is consistent with the development of a price bubble, failure of the bubble to burst until 1990–1991 is implausible. Real estate experts recognized overvaluation in assessments as early as the spring of 1986.
The RN Office-Market Index was slow to register price declines when the markets first weakened and then overstated the rate of decline once the market began to bottom out. This pattern likely reflects incentives for appraisers to smooth potentially temporary price volatility and for investment managers to maintain appraised values in declining markets. It traces as well as to systematic differences in the character and condition of the properties that lend to trade at different stages of the real estate cycle. These incentives and differences provide reason to believe that other RN indexes were similarly distorted.     

资产价格波动与实体经济稳定研究

资产价格波动影响实体经济的程度与机制,一直备受关注。与国内其他相关研究相比,本文在样本选择上突出了资产价格波动影响消费和投资的针对性。通过构建引入资产价格的局部均衡分析模型和IS-LM扩展模型,本文采用现代时间序列分析的ADF检验、Granger因果检验、Johansen协整检验、VECM检验、脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解等多种方法进行研究,揭示了我国资产价格波动与实体经济稳定之间的相关性、因果关系、影响程度、影响过程和影响机制。     

The impact of corporate size and strategy on competitive pricing

Larger firms are often hypothesized to have higher prices than smaller competitors because of their market power or implicit collusion on prices. Advertising is often suggested as another cause of price elevation due to its ability to differentiate products of equivalent or inferior quality. This study examines the effect of these and other factors on prices in the major home appliance industry. The most interesting result is the strong corporate effect on prices, which permeates pricing strategies across categories, models and time. Contrary to the hypotheses listed above, larger corporations have lower prices, and advertised products are not higher priced. Strategic and policy implications are discussed.     

Dwelling Age Heteroskedasticity in Repeat Sales House Price Equations

Several authors have attributed the heteroskedasticity observed in repeat sales house price equations to the length of time between sales. Recently, Goodman and Thibodeau (1995) developed a theoretical model that relates heteroskedasticity in hedonic house price equations to dwelling age. Using data for nearly 2,000 repeat sales in Dallas, Texas, this research examines whether repeat sales heteroskedasticity is related to dwelling age, to the length of time between sales, or to both. An iterative generalized least squares procedure that explicitly models the residual variance is used to obtain robust parameter estimates and to increase the efficiency of the usual repeat sales price indices.     

The impact of different fibre access network technologies on cost,competition and welfare

Using a novel approach to the evaluation of new network technologies that combines an engineering cost model with a differentiated multi-player oligopoly model with wholesale access regulation this article evaluates the choice among different Fibre-to-the-Home (FTTH) architectures. The cost modelling relies upon an engineering bottom-up approach that feeds into a competition model. For addressing competition the pyramid model was chosen, which is an extension of the Hotelling model to multiple firms/services. The paper solves for price setting Nash equilibria between an incumbent, wholesale-access-based entrants and cable as an additional fully integrated network competitor. Welfare tradeoffs are highlighted with respect to cost differences and QoS differences between the various FTTH architectures and between the modes of regulation. According to the analysis architectures that can be unbundled (and that allow for greater speeds) outperform, from a social welfare perspective, architectures that (realistically) allow only for bitstream access.     

我国商品房市场量价关系的实证分析

目前对房地产市场的研究主要集中于房价,而对量价关系的研究较少。鉴于此,文章利用1998～2008年的全国商品房季度数据,对我国商品房市场量价关系进行实证研究,并得出以下结论：从长期来看,我国商品房市场的交易量与价格之间存在协整关系;因果检验显示交易量是价格的格兰杰原因,反之则不成立;通过脉冲响应函数发现外界冲击导致了量价的一致波动且交易量对外界冲击的响应比房价更敏感。     

An Arbitrage-Free Estimate of Prepayment Option Prices in Fixed-Rate GNMA Mortgage-Backed Securities

In an efficient market, the no-arbitrage condition implies that the price difference between any two assets must be the market value of all differences in their cash flows. We use this logic to deduce the price of the prepayment option embedded in fixed-rate Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA) mortgage-backed securities. The option price equals the difference between an observed GNMA price and the cost of a synthetic, nonprepayable GNMA constructed from the least expensive portfolio of Treasury securities that exactly replicates the promised GNMA cash flow stream, assuming prepayment is precluded. We regress the option prices on variables found significant in previous prepayment studies, finding that five key regressors explain more than 90% of the prepayment option value in pooled time-series cross-sectional analysis. We also show that the time value of the prepayment option calculated by our method displays a pattern similar to that produced by the Black-Scholes (1973) option pricing model. An additional empirical result is the existence of negative option prices and negative time value of the option prices. We attribute these to the fact that homeowners sometimes exercise their prepayment options when they are out-of-the-money, and to refinancing transaction costs. Our method is independent of assumptions regarding interest rate processes and the homeowner's prepayment behavior, and it provides a benchmark for testing theoretical prepayment models.     

Double Marginalization and Privatization in Liquor Retailing

The purpose of this paper is to examine the price andstore count predictions of the spatial and non-spatialmodels of vertical integration between an upstreammonopolist and a downstream monopolisticallycompetitive retail industry using data from Alberta'srecently privatized liquor retailing industry. Thisindustry, which had been a government owned monopoly,became monopolistically competitive underprivatization. The models predict that verticaldisintegration will lead to higher retail prices andan increase in the store count in markets that cansupport multiple stores. Both predictions aresupported by liquor store count and price data.     

Brokerage commissions and margin requirements: With special reference to Japan

In Japan, brokerage commissions and margin requirements are currently regulated by the Ministry of Finance. However, commissions may soon be deregulated. This paper examines several economic factors which determine commissions and margins in a deregulated environment. The analysis is motivated by the observations that for Japan's securities companies, 1) brokerage commissions constitute a large component of their revenues; 2) margin transactions account for a significant proportion of their trading volume; 3) their gross income exhibits a great deal of volatility; 4) income tax is one of their two largest expenses; and 5) they face a significant tax asymmetry.While executing an unmargined long transaction for a customer is a riskless activity, executing either a margined long or a short transaction exposes the firm to some risk and possibly negative profits. While the commission charged by a brokerage firm for executing a riskless (unmargined) long transaction is simply equal to the marginal cost of producing the firm's total number of transactions, it is demonstrated that the gross commission charged for executing either a margined long or a short transaction includes two other components. The first additional component is a risk/tax premium that is determined by the brokerage firm's tax rate and degree of tax asymmetry, the security's volatility, and the customer's margin deposit. The second additional component is the premium required for the implicit put option associated with a margined long transaction, or for the implicit call option associated with a short transaction. The option falls in-the-money if the security's price changes significantly, so that it is optimal for the customer to default on his contract with the brokerage firm.The determinants of the customer's optimal margin, for both long and short transactions, are also examined. The benefit to the customer of depositing a higher margin is that his commission cost declines. For example, with short transactions a higher margin increases the exercise price of the implicit call option, causing both the risk/tax premium and the implicit option premium to decline. However, a higher margin may increase the customer's opportunity cost of capital. Consequently, the optimal margin increases with the firm's tax rate and degree of tax asymmetry, and decreases with the customer's opportunity cost of capital. An increase in the security's volatility has an ambiguous impact on the optimal margin.The authors are from York University, Canada and International University of Japan, respectively. Part of this paper was written while the first author was on leave at Kyoto University, Japan. We acknowledge helpful comments by Richard Arnott, Lawrence Harris, Hiromitsu Ishi, Eliakim Katz, Johannes Raaballe and Lim Kian Guan (the editor).     

A Conjoint-based Product Designing Procedure Incorporating Price Competition

Conjoint analysis has become a major tool in the process of designing and concept testing consumer packaged goods and industrial products. In most applications, however, product concepts are tested against existing sets of competing brands without considering potential competitive reactions. Although many researchers have recognized the need for models to incorporate competitive reactions, few methodological developments have been published thus far. Instead of what-if analysis, which depends heavily on the managers' intuition about the competitors' reactions, S. Chan Choi and Wayne DeSarbo propose a game theoretic approach that models competing firms' reactions in price. This price reaction model is incorporated in the conjoint simulator for evaluating product concepts against competing brands. They illustrate the methodology using a commercial data set previously collected.     

Optimal dynamic volume-based price regulation

We consider a model of optimal price regulation in markets where demand is sluggish and asymmetric providers compete on quality. Using a spatial model, which is suitable to investigate the health care and education sector, we analyse within a dynamic set-up the scope for price premiums or penalties on volume. Under the assumption of symmetric cost information, we show that the socially optimal time path of quality provision off the steady state can be replicated by a simple dynamic pricing rule where the dynamic part of the rule is ex-ante non-discriminatory in the sense that the price premium or penalty on volume is common across providers, despite their differing production costs. Whether the price schedule involves a penalty or a premium on volume relates to two concerns regarding production costs and consumer benefits, which go in opposite directions. Price adjustments over time occur only through the price penalty or premium, not time directly, which highlights the simplicity and thus applicability of this regulation scheme.