信息不对称与非逆向选择

信息不对称引致逆向选择是信息经济学的重要观点。然而,实证研究对此提出挑战,学者们仅在部分保险市场发现逆向选择,还有大量市场出现正向选择或不相关选择。非逆向选择现象引起学界对传统信息不对称理论的反思,通过修正理论假设重新审视保险市场运行。学界研究表明,在双向信息优势、多维异质性和不完全风险分类假设下,保险市场可能出现逆向选择、正向选择或不相关选择。非逆向选择问题研究形成对传统信息不对称理论的拓展与完善,同时得到大量实证研究支持。     

逆向选择环境下电子商务市场研究——基于信息经济学的视角

当人们为电子商务所带来的种种便利和高效而欢欣鼓舞时,却又不得不同时面对这样一个事实:由于网络摆脱了时空的限制,造就了网络交易的虚拟性,由网上交易中的信息非对称性所引致的逆向选择问题也可能因为这样的外在原因而有恶化的趋势.设法减少存在于网络市场中的逆向选择问题,是我们提高电子商务市场效率的必然要求.笔者基于诺贝尔经济学奖获得者Akerlof的经典理论,构造了电子商务市场逆向选择模型和双市场(传统市场与电子商务市场)逆向选择模型,试图揭示出电子商务市场逆向选择存在的学理根源,并得出逆向选择环境下市场均衡和市场细分的条件.笔者还基于淘宝网的数据,实证性地探讨了中国电子商务市场逆向选择问题的本土特征和存在的问题,并就消除或减少网络逆向选择提出策略建议.     

企业接受网络低价的数学分析及对策

本文就同一产品的网络市场价格低于传统市场价格的现象,给出了造成这一现象的根本原因,即网络市场比传统市场存在更严重的逆向选择;并对该根本原因进行了简要的定性分析:先从传统市场存在逆向选择现象开始,进而延伸并分析说明网络市场不仅存在逆向选择现象并且比传统市场更严重;接着在相应的科学假设的基础上从数学分析的角度证明了企业为什么能够接受网络市场低价;最后在传统市场已经采用的对策基础上又提出了针对网络市场特点的对策来消除逆向选择,并最终使网络市场价格等于传统市场价格.     

我国房地产市场泡沫的测度及成因分析——基于行为金融理论的视角

房地产泡沫近年来一直是经济学界的研究热点。本文以行为金融理论为基础,从房地产市场微观主体行为的新视角出发,萃取了逆向选择、羊群效应和蓬齐对策三个因子并根据其概念的本质分析形成对各因子的计算公式,在构建房地产市场局部均衡模型测算我国房地产泡沫度的基础上,通过多元回归实证分析了三个因子对1997—2011年我国房地产泡沫的解释度。研究发现,逆向选择、羊群效应和蓬齐对策对我国房地产泡沫具有良好的解释能力,其中,逆向选择的解释效力最强。当前我国房地产泡沫产生的主要原因包括需求的不合理、信贷资金的大量进入、房地产市场主体心理预期的过分乐观以及土地和财政制度的缺陷等。     

我国农村信贷市场信息不对称问题及对策研究

在我国农村信贷市场上,信息不对称现象广泛存在,而信息不对称造成的逆向选择和道德风险则是不良贷款发生、农村金融抑制的重要原因.本文主要分析逆向选择和道德风险产生的原因,并提出了相关的对策,力求解决农村信贷市场上的信息不对称问题.     

信贷市场的经济学分析

文章针对目前信贷市场所存在的问题 ,利用经济博弈理论中的信息非对称原理 ,通过建立经济学模型对信息非对称条件导致的信贷市场中的逆向选择和道德风险进行了理论分析 ,在此基础上提出了银行如何防范信息非对称条件下信贷市场的逆向选择和道德风险思路 ,并对信息非对称条件下信货市场中不同市场参与者之间存在的信息差异提出建议     

消费品市场进化趋势研究

本文利用已有的进化博弈理论及极限理论的相关知识,在相应的前提假设下,给出了影响市场交易走向的两个模型,分析了市场的进化趋势。首次将“正向选择”一词用于分析市场交易问题,探讨了市场何时朝着正向选择趋势发展,何时朝着逆向选择趋势发展,Pareto改进交易最终能否实现,为相关市场管理部门提供了客观的决策依据。     

房地产价格与通货膨胀预期

文章通过构建房地产均衡市场模型,在风险中性的假设前提下,利用无套利均衡定价原理,发展了从房地产价格波动中分离出市场通货膨胀预期的新方法.在此基础上,通过对中国房地产市场的实证研究发现,房地产预期收益率与通货膨胀预期之间确实存在稳定的函数关系.最后,文章提出将房地产价格纳入到居住类消费价格指数中去以减少货币政策认识时滞的政策建议.     

信息不对称、逆向选择和市场均衡

几乎所有研究信息不对称与逆向选择问题的文献都隐含着一家厂商在同一时刻只能提供单一质量水平产品的假设。本文在厂商可以同时提供高质量产品和低质量产品的假设基础上,通过建立模型来探讨信息不对称与逆向选择的关系。研究结论表明,当考虑到这一前提条件时,信息不对称所导致的逆向选择程度可能并不像先前的研究者所认为的那么严重,甚至可能不存在。此外,模型也指出,消费者所拥有的财富数量将严重地影响到逆向选择的程度,财富数量与逆向选择的严重程度存在着负相关关系。这个结论可以很好地解释在发展中国家假冒伪劣现象十分普遍的原因。最后,拟以浙江省龙井茶市场为例来验证本文所发展的理论。     

网络市场中数字产品交易的逆向选择问题分析

与传统市场相比,网络市场有较低的进入障碍、较低的交易费用和容易获取市场信息三方面优势,但这并不意味着网络市场不存在信息不对称及逆向选择问题。对网络市场数字产品交易过程产生逆向选择问题的原因进行分析,并构建“柠檬市场”模型,提出解决网络市场逆向选择问题的建议。     

市场结构理论分析范式演进研究

通过系统地梳理市场结构理论从SCP框架到厂商策略性行为研究的演变历程,并结合分析经济实践变迁,本文发现,推动市场结构理论分析范式演进的两个主要动因是方法论创新和理论范畴拓展。前者导致了结构主义SCP范式的确立和行为主义的兴起;后者催生了以交易费用为核心概念的新制度主义产业组织理论。展望市场结构理论未来的发展趋势,本文认为,从方法论创新上,博弈论将研究重点转向了企业策略性行为;从范畴拓展上,品牌经济学将开创对消费者行为研究的新领域。     

电力市场复杂特性及其演化规律的实证研究

复杂系统研究的基本问题是,大量个体(包括有生命和无生命的)所组成的复杂系统,在没有中心控制、非完全信息、仅仅存在局域相互作用的条件下,如何通过个体之间的非线性相互作用,在宏观层次上涌现出一定的有序结构和功能。本文基于复杂系统理论,对电力市场的复杂特性及其演化规律进行了分析,并以美国加州电力市场和PJM电力市场为例进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:电力市场作为一种经济系统,是一个包括多因素、多层次,涉及多环节的复杂系统,也因此具有了复杂系统的一切特征和性质。美国加州电力市场的电价分布具有自相似性,反映出竞争性电力市场具有复杂分形结构,即具有了复杂系统的涌现性特征;美国PJM电力市场的电价服从幂律分布,验证了竞争性电力市场自组织临界性的演化规律。本文结论为电力市场研究提供了新的思路和角度。     

中国汽车工业市场结构变迁及其成因

为揭示我国汽车工业的结构演进过程，以更好地引导发展，本文运用产业组织理论对我国汽车工业市场结构变迁及其成因进行了梳理。研究表明，我国汽车工业发展史可分为五个阶段，各阶段的市场结构特点、成因、竞争程度均有很大差异，其中政府和市场影响呈现此消彼长的局面，但政府角色更关键。政府一系列行为旨在塑造由国营车企主导的高集中度市场结构，但行政主导式的高集中寡占型市场结构由于缺乏有效市场竞争，因而市场结构始终与较强的市场势力和不完全竞争相联系。此外，本文还运用博弈论探讨了现阶段“多角联盟”下的企业行为，分析表明该结构下的价格合谋更具稳态性。     

On the Endogeneity of Market Power in Emissions Markets

Previous approaches on market power in emissions trading markets rely on the existence of a subset of competitive players. In this paper, I relax this assumption and treat market power as an endogenous concept which depends on the initial allocation of allowances. All parties realize their potential influence on the market price. This approach allows a clear comparative statics analysis of the impact of the allowance allocation on the efficiency of markets. I provide specific examples that illustrate the implications that stem from the proposed modeling approach relative to previous models.     

DVD高技术企业市场决策中的专利博弈分析

在高技术领域中，跨国公司运用专利武器主导着整个市场，国内厂商除需要合理地进行技术和市场的定位外，更重要的途径是技术引进、消化、吸收与创新。本文以DVD行业为例，进行了完全信息条件下的博弈分析，得出一些具有启发性的结论。     

Early Evolution of the Assumption of Non-satiation

The paper explores the mostly tacit transmission of the assumption of non-satiation from the outset of classical political economy to the advent of marginal analysis in Great Britain. The evolution of the assumption is traced back to contributions to the philosophy of mind in the early British enlightenment, which provided scientific ground not only to the economic agent's insatiable nature but also to a delusional dynamic of association that challenges the causality between acquisitiveness and pleasure. The paper claims that, because there is evidence that such delusional aspect was known to the early political economists, the assumption of non-satiation might have become a mainstay in economics not only for its scientific status but also as a result of a strategic choice that can only be explained within the political, cultural, and social context in which it was made. Had this been the case, the exportability of the assumption through time and space must be further questioned. The consistent inclusion of non-satiation in economic theories, policies, and institutions may have had extraordinary consequences, and may have nurtured rational behaviors that in fact fulfill the assumption itself.     

Technological Change, Market Rivalry, and the Evolution of the Capitalist Engine of Growth

In the early stages of Western industrialization, innovation was the domain of individuals who devoted their entrepreneurial talents to the development of a new product or process, typically setting up a new firm in order to take the innovation to the market. Today, commercial R&;D is almost exclusively carried out by corporate laboratories affiliated with manufacturing firms. The corporate R&;D lab, however, did not exist in its modern form until the late nineteenth century. The history of Western industrialization, thus, suggests that a fundamental change in the structure of incentives, and consequently in the nature and the organization of the R&;D process, occurred around the turn of the century. Three questions arise. What is the nature of this change? What economic forces caused it? What are its implications? To answer these questions, I construct a model where this change is endogenous to the evolution of the economy toward industrial maturity. The change in the locus of innovation—from R&;D undertaken by intventor-entrepreneurs, to R&;D undertaken within established firms in close proximity to the production line—results from the interaction of market structure and technological change. This interaction captures the essence of the evolution of the capitalist engine of growth and provides an economic explanation of a “stylized fact” that has received no attention in the theoretical literature. The endogenous market structure generates dynamic feedbacks that shape the growth path of the economy and determine the structural change it undergoes, including the endogenous formation of corporate R&;D labs. The evolution of market rivalry explains when and how established firms become the major locus of R&;D activity.     

期货市场价格操纵行为与监管——基于演化博弈理论

从演化博弈理论的视角,基于微分方程的稳定性理论,通过分析中间参数的变化对博弈系统的最终演化均衡的影响,论证了期货市场联合操纵行为演化的方向和路径,并结合"有限理性"个体的假设进行模拟。最后,对期货市场价格操纵行为的监管提出了相关建议。     

Technological Forecasting at the Stock Market

Under the assumption that competition (Darwinian in nature) reigns in the stock market, we analyze the behavior of company stocks as if they were species competing for investors' resources. The approach requires the study of dollar values and share volumes, daily exchanged in the stock market, via logistic growth functions. These two variables, in contrast to prices, obey the law of natural growth in competition, which like every natural law, is endowed with predictability. A number of unexpected insights about the stock market emerge. The forecasts indicate that whereas there is no looming crash in the near future, no significant growth should be expected either. The DJIA is to hover around 9500 depicting large erratic excursions above and below this level for a few years. The use of Volterra-Lotka equations demonstrates that the 1987 crash altered the stock-bond interaction from a symbiotic to a predator-prey relationship with stocks acting as predators. This research work has lead to the publication of the book An S-Shaped Trail to Wall Street by T. Modis, (Growth Dynamics, Geneva, 1999).     

Evolutionary Product Differentiation And Market Creation In Turbulent Economic Environments ∗

The assumption of given consumer tastes and production, loses ground very rapidly in information-intensive economic systems, where the ability to design products and services combinations for increasingly specific needs and skills is a key variable to competition. This article presents a search-oriented conceptual framework and proposes a schematic representation of endogenous product differentiation. The evolution of users' and producers' discriminating capabilities is shown to govern their interaction leading to product definition. Patterns of sub-market creation or standardization provide a central building block to market creation analysis.