Compromise effect and consideration set size in consumer decision-making

The compromise effect dictates that a decision-maker chooses a middle option over an extreme one given a set of choice alternatives since choosing an intermediate option is easier to justify, less likely to be criticized, and is consistent with loss aversion. Our experiment is designed to identify whether the connection between the extremeness of the options and the size of the consideration sets is economically and statistically significant and thus would have important behavioural implications. Specifically, we compare decision-making under small and large consideration sets where the extremeness of the comprising choice options is high, as opposed to low. The results demonstrate that an increase in consideration set size leads to weaker compromise effect (i.e. boundary condition) but when composed of high extremeness, strengthens the compromise effect.     

The impact of offering two versus three alternatives in choice modelling experiments

Researchers designing choice modelling experiments have some latitude over the number of choice alternatives that can be offered in each choice set. There is some evidence that design dimensions, including the number of alternatives available in each choice set, can influence model outcomes. A key issue is whether referendum formats with binary options are preferable to choice sets with multiple alternatives.A choice modelling experiment was performed where questionnaires delivered to two split samples differed only according to whether two or three alternatives were offered to respondents in each choice set. The results indicate that more robust models could be constructed from the three-alternative split compared to the two-alternative split. One reason for the difference is that respondents tended to display serial non-participation in the two-alternative format, choosing an alternative consistently without regard for changes in the attributes. For practitioners of the CM technique, the results suggest that it may be preferable to offer more than two alternatives in a choice set that includes a status quo option.     

Accounting for Preference and Scale Heterogeneity in Establishing Whether it Matters Who is Interviewed to Reveal Household Automobile Purchase Preferences

The choice of automobile purchases in households often involves participation of more than one household member, each of which exerts some degree of influence on the final choice outcome. The influence of more than one agent has been recognised for many years, and yet the majority of automobile choice studies develop choice models as if a single agent is involved in the preference revelation process. What is not clear is whether it makes any substantive difference in preference revelation according to who is interviewed in a household. Using a generalised mixed logit framework that accounts for preference and scale heterogeneity, we estimate a series of models to investigate whether there are significant differences between the preferences of each individual in a household when assessed in isolation from other household members, as well as their joint preferences when expressing their preferences through a group choice task. The context is choosing amongst petrol, diesel and hybrid fuelled vehicles (associated with specific levels of fuel efficiency and engine capacity) when faced with a mix of vehicle prices, fuel prices, fixed annual registration fees, annual emission surcharges and vehicle kilometre emission surcharges. Using a stated choice experiment, we find that sampling a single individual as a representative of the household’s preferences is less appropriate than utilising preference information from the relevant group of decision makers in the household.     

Manipulation and the Pareto rule

This paper examines rules that map preference profiles into choice sets. There are no agendas other than the entire set of alternatives. A rule is said to be “manipulable” if there is a person i, and a preference profile, such that i prefers the choice set obtained when he is dishonest to the one obtained when he is honest. It is “nonmanipulable” if this can never happen. The paper indicates how preferences over choice sets might be sensibly derived from preferences over alternatives, and discusses seven different notions of manipulability associated with seven different assumptions about preferences over sets of alternatives. The paper has two sections of results. In the first I show that the Pareto rule, that is, the rule that maps preference profiles into corresponding sets of Pareto optima, is nonmanipulable in four of the seven senses of manipulability, and manipulable in three of them. In the second section, I examine this conjecture: If an arbitrary rule is nonmanipulable and nonimposed, and if indifference is disallowed, then every choice set must be contained in the set of Pareto optima. The conjecture is true under the strongest definition of nonmanipulability.     

Are lifecycle funds appropriate as default options in participant-directed retirement plans?

Since the enactment of Pension Protection Act of 2006, lifecycle funds that reduce exposure to stocks with age have rapidly replaced money market funds as the most commonly nominated default investment options for participant-directed retirement plans. We examine their appropriateness in meeting a threshold level of retirement wealth required by plan participants. Using a utility function motivated by prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979), we show that whilst lifecycle funds are vastly superior to money market funds (except for very low thresholds), they rank below balanced funds that maintain constant exposure to equities over time. As thresholds increase, lifecycle funds are also dominated by funds that switch assets conditional to prior investment performance. Even in the absence of a minimum threshold wealth level, lifecycle funds do not emerge as the most preferred choice among the investment options considered by our paper.     

Individual account investment options and portfolio choice: Behavioral lessons from 401(k) plans

This paper examines how the menu of investment options made available to workers in defined contribution plans influences portfolio choice. Using unique panel data of 401(k) plans in the U.S., we present three principle findings. First, we show that the share of investment options in a particular asset class (i.e., company stock, equities, fixed income, and balanced funds) has a significant effect on aggregate participant portfolio allocations across these asset classes. Second, we document that the vast majority of the new funds added to 401(k) plans are high-cost actively-managed equity funds, as opposed to lower-cost equity index funds. Third, because the average share of assets invested in low-cost equity index funds declines with an increase in the number of options, average portfolio expenses increase and average portfolio performance is thus depressed. All of these findings are obtained from a panel data set, enabling us to control for heterogeneity in the investment preferences of workers across firms and across time.     

Determinants of pension plan fees in Spain

Pension plans and funds represent a substantial part of the welfare systems in both Europe and Spain. One of the most important factors in the choice of a plan or fund is the performance it obtains. In view of the influence that fees have on performance, the objective of this study is to analyse the variables that determine the management and custodial fees of individual pension plans. The Spanish market for pension plans and funds sets legal caps on these fees, and at the same time the majority of them are commercialized and managed by financial institutions, which can in turn generate a conflict of interests. In this article, we estimate models with censured variables and our findings show how the average investment per plan, the legal status and the size of the management company to which the plan belongs, and the style of the plan are all relevant determinants of the management fee. In turn, the custodial fee is determined by the legal status of the custodial company, the size, the return and the type of plan.     

The adequacy of investment choices offered by 401(k) plans

The choices made by 401(k) participants are the product of two different decisions: what is offered and what is chosen. While there have been a number of studies of the decisions made by participants in 401(k) plans, there have been no studies of the adequacy of the full set of choices offered to 401(k) participants. This paper analyzes the adequacy and characteristics of the choices offered to 401(k)-plan participants for over 400 plans. We find that only 53% of the plans offer an adequate set of options and that over a 20-year period offering inadequate options makes a difference in terminal wealth of over 53%. We find that funds included in the plans are riskier, but have a slightly higher return, than the general population of funds in the same categories. However, we find that the return difference is roughly equal to the difference in expenses between funds selected by plans and randomly selected funds. We study the characteristics of plans that are associated with adequate investment choices, including an analysis of the use of company stock, plan size, and the use of sophisticated strategies.     

Choice Certainty and Consistency in Repeated Choice Experiments

The main objective of this study is to examine how repeated choice affects preference learning in stated preference experiments. We test different hypotheses related to preference learning by analyzing response patterns and asking respondents in a choice experiment to report their experienced certainty when going through the choice tasks. In a split-sample test, we show that follow-up choice certainty questions are procedural invariant. The self-reported certainty results indicate that learning occurs, but econometric testing procedures do not identify any significant impact of learning effects on parameter estimates or variance across choice tasks. Additional tests of choice consistency suggest that preferences in the choice experiment are stable and coherent.     

Revealed smooth nontransitive preferences

In the present paper, we are concerned with the behavioural consequences of consumers having nontransitive preference relations. Data sets consist of finitely many observations of price vectors and consumption bundles. A preference relation rationalizes a data set provided that for every observed consumption bundle, all strictly preferred bundles are more expensive than the observed bundle. Our main result is that data sets can be rationalized by a smooth nontransitive preference relation if and only if prices can normalized such that the law of demand is satisfied. Market data sets consist of finitely many observations of price vectors, lists of individual incomes and aggregate demands. We apply our main result to characterize market data sets consistent with equilibrium behaviour of pure-exchange economies with smooth nontransitive consumers.     

Revealing Differences in Willingness to Pay due to the Dimensionality of Stated Choice Designs: An Initial Assessment

Stated choice (SC) methods are now a widely accepted data paradigm in the study of the choice responses of agents. Their popularity has spawned an industry of applications in fields as diverse as transportation, environmental science, health economics and policy, marketing, political science and econometrics. With rare exception, empirical studies have used a single SC design, in which the numbers of attributes, alternatives, choice sets, attribute levels and ranges have been fixed across the entire design. As a consequence the opportunity to investigate the influence of design dimensionality on behavioural response has been denied. Accumulated wisdom has promoted a large number of positions on what design features are specifically challenging for respondents; and although a number of studies have assessed the influence of subsets of design dimensions, there exists no single study (that we are aware of) that has systematically varied all of the main dimensions of SC experiments. This paper reports some initial findings on what influences, in aggregate, specific design configurations have on the mean willingness to pay for specific attributes using a Design of Designs (DoD) SC experiment in which the ‘attributes’ of the design are the design dimensions themselves. The design dimensions that are varied are the number of choice sets presented, the number of alternatives in each choice set, the number of attributes per alternative, the number of levels of each attribute and the range of attribute levels. The empirical evidence, using a sample of respondents in Sydney choosing amongst trip attribute bundles for their car commuting trip, suggests that, within the boundaries of design dimensionality investigated, mean estimates of WTP for travel time savings in the aggregate cover a range that is appropriate for reporting a global mean and a set of meaningful values for sensitivity testing in project appraisal and demand prediction. When these aggregated mean estimates are conditioned on all design dimensions we do not find any systematic differences due to specific design dimensions; however when each design dimension is assessed without controlling for the other dimensions we find evidence to support differences in aggregate mean WTP attributable to the number of attributes per alternative and the number of alternatives in a choice set. Research funded under the Australian Research Council Large Grants Scheme, Grant A00103962.     

Salience and social choice

The axioms of expected utility and discounted utility theory have been tested extensively. In contrast, the axioms of social welfare functions have only been tested in a few questionnaire studies involving choices between hypothetical income distributions. In a controlled experiment with 100 subjects placed in the role of social planners, we test five fundamental properties of social welfare functions to determine the efficacy of traditional social choice models in predicting social planner allocations when presented with choice sets designed to test the axioms of the theory. We find that three properties of the standard social welfare functions tested are systematically violated, producing an Allais paradox, a common ratio effect, and a framing effect in social choice. We find support for scale invariance and a preference for tail-increasing transfers. Our experiment also enables us to test a model of salience-based social choice which predicts the systematic deviations and highlights the close relationship between these anomalies and the classical paradoxes for risk and time.

     

Endogenous tastes and stable long-run choice

Suppose that short-run preferences depend upon consumption one period earlier. Then there is an acyclic long-run strict preference relation iff, for every finite set, every conservative choice sequence converges. If long-run preferences are acyclic, then a unique long-run choice from a compact set is globally stable. If the long-run choice set includes multiple choices, there is a weaker stability property. Under special assumptions these results are extended to cases when the short-run consumption set is endogenous, and when more previous periods affect the present.     

Preference for flexibility in the absence of learning: the risk attitude effect

Individuals’ preferences over opportunity sets may display “preference for flexibility” which prescribes to gradually eliminate alternatives from a given set until a final choice is made. One rationale for this preference for flexibility is individuals’ incentive to postpone the final choice in order to better learn their underlying preferences over basic alternatives. In this paper we show that even in the absence of learning, preference for flexibility arises if individuals are risk-averse or, at least, are not very risk-seeking. Thus, individual’s attitude towards risk provides yet another rationale for preference for flexibility. One of our results is that in the absence of learning, risk-neutral as well as risk-averse individuals display the same, maximal preference for flexibility. We thank Han Bleichrodt, Robert Dur, Chaim Fershtman, Maarten Janssen, Peran van Reeven, Peter Wakker, and Timothy van Zandt for helpful comments to and inspiring discussions. We are very grateful to the anonymous referee for very constructive comments and suggestions.     

Coalitional manipulation and the Pareto rule

This paper examines aggregation procedures that map profiles of individual preferences into choice sets. An aggregation procedure is said to be “manipulable by a coalition” if there is a group of individuals, and a preference profile, such that every member of the group prefers the choice set obtained when they are misrepresenting their preferences, to the one obtained when they are honest. We show that the Pareto rule, which is an aggregation procedure that maps profiles of individual preferences into corresponding sets of Pareto optima, is not manipulable by any coalition of individuals under various behavioural assumptions which relate preferences over choice sets to preferences over alternatives. The non-manipulability of the Pareto rule by a single individual follows as a special case under these behavioural assumptions.     

Improved Mutual Fund Investment Choice Architecture

Two choice architecture interventions were explored to debias investors' irrational preference for mutual funds with high past returns rather than funds with low fees. A simple choice task was used involving a direct trade-off between maximizing past returns and minimizing fees. In the first intervention, warning investors that “Some people invest based on past performance, but funds with low fees have the highest future results” was more effective than 3 other disclosure statements, including the U.S. financial regulator's, “Past performance does not guarantee future results.” The second intervention involved converting mutual fund annual percentage fees into a 10-year dollar cost equivalent. This intervention also improved investors' fee sensitivity, and remained effective even as past returns increased. Financially literate participants were surprisingly more likely to irrationally maximize past returns in their investment choices.     

Should all Choices Count? Using the Cut-Offs Approach to Edit Responses in a Choice Experiment

Should we give equal weight to all responses in a choice experiment? Previous Choice Modelling papers have considered the issue of the internal consistency of choices—such as the extent to which strictly-dominated options are chosen. In this paper, a different focus is employed, namely the extent to which people choose options which violate their stated upper or lower limits for the acceptable levels for individual attributes. Since hypothetical over-statement of WTP has been a focus in stated preference studies, we concentrate on violations of stated upper limits of WTP, and explore the effects of “editing” such choices using a variable censoring rule and alternative approaches to re-classifying choices. The empirical case study is a choice experiment on eco-tourists in Rwanda. Our main conclusion is that the suggested approach offers a useful way of imposing consistency on choices, and that editing choices in this manner has an appreciable impact on estimated willingness to pay. However, issues remain with regard to explaining why people apparently violate their stated maximum willingness to pay.     

How Much is Too Much?

In a split sample design, we examine how the number of choice sets, design of the first choice set (context dependence), and the choice of attribute levels in the cost attribute affect the precision in the elicited preferences in otherwise completely identical choice experiment surveys. These issues are investigated for Swedish households’ marginal willingness to pay to reduce power outages. Our results indicate that neither the number of choice sets nor the design of the first choice set has a significant impact on estimated marginal willingness to pay, while the effect was significant for the additive scaling of the cost vector. At the end of the article we discuss the implications of our results on future developments and applications of choice experiments.      

On nonparametric estimation of the Schumpeterian link between innovation and firm size: Evidence from Belgium,France, and Germany

This paper analyses the Schumpeterian link between innovative activity and firm size by means of the nonparametric Nadaraya-Watson estimator and of the partially linear approach by Speckman. Four data sets referring to the manufacturing industries of three European countries are available for the analysis. We demonstrate how nonparametric methods can produce more reliable conclusions than conventional methods. For this purpose, the roles of bandwidth choice, wild bootstrap, density estimation and trimming are studied. For the German data set of 1984 and for the French data set we find that small firms and large firms are more innovative than firms of intermediate size while the relation is rather hump-shaped for Germany 1989 and decreasing for Belgium. Including an additional parametric component into the estimations based on the French data contributes considerably to the explanation of innovative activity without affecting the U-shaped link between innovation and firm size.