基于灰色遗传BP神经网络的铁路货运量预测

铁路货运量受限于社会建设、投资和政策调控等多方面的影响.为了给货运系统提供更好的调配支撑,基于铁路货运量影响因素,加强BP预测性能,提出灰色遗传BP神经网络的铁路货运量预测模型(GR_GA_BP),对铁路货运量进行灰色关联分析,找出与铁路货运量关联程度较高的指标作为GR_GA_BP预测模型的输入对货运量进行预测.通过MAPE、RMSE和MAE对比GR_GA_BP模型与其他模型,实验结果表明,GR_GA_BP模型优于其他模型,可以作为新方法预测和研究铁路货运能力.     

综合交通运输体系构建与困境摆脱:铁路行业例证

十一五时期以来,我国增加了对铁路建设的投资,加快铁路发展建设。铁路客运由于地域差异,货运量规模也体现出区域差异,铁路客运在时间上表现出季节性供给不足。解决客运难、货运难的问题,除加速铁路里程建设,还要重点加强跨区域的铁路建设并合理组织铁路的运营、构建和谐的综合交通运输体系。     

铁路货运量预测过程中的关键技术分析

可靠的铁路货运量预测对铁路部门计划、建设、运营等决策具有重要意义。主要影响因素筛选、预测方法选取等是预测过程中的关键技术问题,对预测质量有重要影响。基于已有研究成果,首先分析了预测机理,探讨了影响因素的界定方法;接着提出了主要影响因素的识别原则和策略;然后归纳出各主要预测方法的优缺点;最后给出相关建议,以期更加科学合理地预测铁路货运量。     

基于GM（1,1）模型群的重庆货运量预测研究

货运量是货运市场体系中的重要统计指标,预测货运量发展趋势是制定货运发展战略的前提和基础。文章根据重庆市货运发展状况,收集了重庆2001-2011年货运量的数据,采用GM(1,1)模型群对重庆市货运量进行模拟、预测。经过模型精度检验,最后选择等维灰数递补GM(1,1)模型对未来四年内的重庆货运量进行预测。     

论中国铁路的技术发展规律及技术创新轨迹

从技术经济学的角度论述铁路这种运输方式的发展历程,根据该运输方式的过去和现状,推测铁路将来的发展趋势,即客运高速化、货运重载化、牵引动力现代化、货物运输集装化和集中化、运营管理信息网络化,并总结铁路运输在发展历程中的技术发展规律和技术创新轨迹。     

到2010年欧洲与亚太国家间通过西伯利亚大铁路运送的货流将增加30％

俄罗斯交通部的官员透露，到2010年欧洲与亚太国家问通过西伯利亚大铁路完成的集装箱货运量将增加30％，达到90万—105万t。2003年欧洲与亚太国家间通过西伯利亚大铁路的集装箱货运量为67．6万t，是集装箱货运业务开展以来情况最好的一年。     

铁路货运现代物流运营模式研究

随着我国铁路货运供给侧改革的不断推进,尤其是党的十九大报告提出要大力发展现代物流产业,因此作为支撑运输业的铁路运输部门必须要积极构建以现代物流体系的运营管理模式,实现集约化、系统化、智能化以及现代化的服务。本文结合多年的工作实践就铁路货运现代物流运营模式进行深入剖析,以此推动铁路货运企业的可持续发展。     

俄中铁路客货运输量增长迅速

从2000年开始,俄罗斯与中国间的货运量已超过2900万吨。俄罗斯交通部副部长哈·扎比洛夫说,铁路运输在俄中货运总量中所占的比例已经达到95％。自2000年以来,铁路部门参与完成的俄中货运总量已经增长了55％。2002年铁路直接运送的货物已接近1800万吨,比2000年增长了70％。与此同时,海上货运量增长了34％。     

满洲里口岸进出口货运量突破2800万吨

据内蒙古自治区满洲里市口岸委最新统计数据显示,2012年,满洲里口岸进出口货运量突破2800万吨,同比增长5.9%;口岸进出境人员累计168.8万人次,同比增长20.1%。2011年,满洲里铁路口岸进口原油被取消,形成约900万吨的口岸货运缺口,口岸货运形势十分严峻。面对困难和挑战,满洲里口岸联检联运部门千方百计采取措施,通过新增煤炭进口品类、增加大宗货物进口运量,实现了口岸货运量逐步增长。2012年,木材进口890.1万立方米(712.1万吨),同比下降12.4%。受宏观经济形势和国家对房地产业严格调控的影响,国内木材市场需求不振,而且自8月23日开始,俄罗斯对中国出口原     

吉林铁路货运站转型物流中心的设想

吉林市铁路物流的业务量主要以吉林车务段为依托,通过对铁路货运站运营情况的分析,勾划出建设吉林铁路物流中心的宏伟蓝图。目前吉林车务段货运站运营虽面临的一些困难,存在一些问题,但针对问题进行分析,对吉林车务段货运发展物流进行规划,同时对吉林市物流中心选址方案进行比选,对建立吉林区域物流中心提供理论依据。     

On the Major Transformation of the Asia-Pacific Regional Structure北大核心CSSCISSCI

Recent years have witnessedsignificant changes in the Asia-Pacific regionalstructure featuring the shift in power balance among related countries as well as adjust-ments in their respective regional strategies. So what is the prevailing trend in thistransformation and what kind of regional order will likely emerge in the future？ To an-swer these questions, the paper tries to explore the following dimensions： the evolvingregional context, shift in power balance and power conversion, geo-political and geo-e-conomic developments and interactions between them, and evolving regional order. Asthe study shows, the broadening of regional geographical scope, the rise in the numberof actors involved, as well as changesin the relations among them, have combined tocast a pluralistic and complex flavor to the regional structure. While the power balanceamong China, the United States and Japan shifts, and power conversion is also occur-ring. China and Japan are paying increasing attention to their security roles, whereasthe United States under the Obama administration laid more stress on expanding itsgeo-economic clout. In spite of the intensifying geopolitical competition among China,the United States and Japan in recent years, a Sino-US strategic compromise-whichholds the key to regional geopolitics-isother front, some kind of geo-economicmore likely to take place in the future. On thecooperation will probably emerge. In the longerterm, it will be the geo-economic trend thatwill prevail over the geopolitical trend inthe region. Finally, the future evolution of regional order wiI1 mainly follow the eco-nomic logic, accompanied by the dilutionof its hegemonic and hierarchical nature.Hence, a pluralistic and complex regional community will emerge.     

The German Hanse and Bergen – new perspectives on an old subject

Abstract

The Hanseatic League and her kontors (trading posts) were an integral part of the medieval trade system in Northern Europe. Hanse merchants dominated many markets in this region and managed to maintain a monopoly-like role in towns like Novgorod and Bergen for many centuries. Consequently, one focus of historical research about the Hanseatic League lay on the mechanisms that enabled the Hanse merchants to keep that strong of a position for such a long time.

This article is part of the discussion about this topic. Based on Lübeck merchants with business interest in the Norwegian town of Bergen, the so-called Bergenfahrers (Bergen travellers), it will give new insights into the Hansards' economical and social organization. The three main points are (a) the integration of the Bergen market in the Hanseatic trade network as an intermediary trading place on the vivid East–West route of Hanse trade; (b) the importance of the Bergenfahrers within the Hanse merchants' economical, social and political networks; and (c) the structure of the Bergenfahrers network patterns in the late Middle Ages.

In addition to new insights into the important role of Bergen and the Bergenfahrers within Lübeck's and the other Wendish Hanse towns' trading system, this articles provides further proof for the usefulness of the methods of Social Network Analysis in medieval economic research.     

Organization and incentives in the age of sail

The British Navy in the age of sail was the most successful bureaucracy of its time. Its organization and incentive structures differed importantly from contemporaneous private sailing ventures, but closely resembled those of today’s large corporations. To induce efficient effort, the navy used a hierarchical tournament, in which sailors competed for higher pay that came with promotions based on relative performance. Promotion probabilities, the option value of future promotions, and the higher effort required of men in higher ranks and on larger vessels, combined to yield a highly skewed pay structure.     

Financial Reporting and Trade Credit: Evidence from Mandatory IFRS Adoption*

We investigate the effect of mandatory IFRS adoption on trade credit. We document that firms in countries that adopt IFRS receive more trade credit from their suppliers, consistent with improved financial reporting quality and comparability playing a role in facilitating informal financing. This increase is larger for countries with a low level of societal trust, a poor pre‐IFRS‐adoption information environment, and stronger legal enforcement. These cross‐sectional results suggest that the conditions under which higher‐quality information is made publicly available affect suppliers' decisions to provide trade credit. This increase is also larger for firms with greater exposure to foreign markets, a finding that highlights the importance of more comparable international financial reporting standards in facilitating cross‐country trade credit. We also find that IFRS adoption has a stronger positive effect on trade credit for firms with greater liquidity needs. Finally, we find that firms in countries that adopt IFRS also extend more trade credit to their customers. Overall, our results support the notion that financial reporting can have a causal effect on trade credit.     

区域工业产业竞争力指标体系的构建及其评价方法研究

文章通过建立省级区域工业产业竞争力评价指标体系,设计竞争力模型,利用SPSS统计软件,对各省工业产业竞争力进行了评价测定。     

中俄经济技术合作面临新机遇

中俄在十年内把各自的GDP翻一番的目标,为发展中俄经济技术合作提供了机遇.仅仅依靠商品贸易的增长很难大幅度提升中俄经贸关系,需要全面开展经济技术合作,特别是加强在自然资源开发、跨国投资、军工技术和产品贸易领域的合作.     

INFRASTRUCTURE POLICY IN INDONESIA, 1965–2015: A SURVEY

This survey, first, provides an overview of the main developments in the infrastructure sector in Indonesia during the past five decades and, second, considers what the main policy and management bottlenecks in infrastructure appear to be. The overview of main developments indicates that, in broad terms, most parts of the sector have expanded considerably but that the needs remain acute for further expansion and for attention to the maintenance of existing facilities. Demand for infrastructure is high, especially since the regulated prices set for infrastructure services are often low. Access is often difficult, however, because of shortages of infrastructure, and quality is often unsatisfactory because of poor maintenance and indifferent management. These problems of access are exacerbated by the regulation of prices. This overview also points to the markedly different performances of industries in which pro-competitive policies have been applied and those in which more traditional policies of close regulation have restricted the operation of markets.