Determinants of transaction activity in commercial real estate markets: evidence from European and Asia-Pacific countries

Variations in transaction activity between commercial real estate markets could have important implications for investment strategies and pricing. We consider why turnover rates, a common liquidity proxy, vary between countries and over time. We examine 38 countries in Europe and Asia-Pacific over the period 2000–2014. A conceptual framework is discussed prior to estimation of panel models that use turnover rates as the dependent variable. Our results indicate that the size and wealth of a country, the risk associated with that country and the performance of its commercial real estate market are significant factors that explain transaction activity. The quality of property rights is also an important factor.     

The role of task complexity in valuation errors analysis in a developing real estate market

The real estate valuation literature on sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) shows a growing concern over valuation errors, especially wide variation in valuations. Although there have been increased business and investment activities in the last decade or more in the region, these valuation errors pose a challenge to the maturity of SSA real estate markets as valuations promote transparency and support efficient operation of property markets. Based on archival and survey data, as well as insights from the task complexity discourse, this study examines the extent of variations in valuations and the effect of complex valuation tasks on the levels of the variations in Ghana. The study finds high levels of variations in valuation opinions of 33.6–63% for the archival and survey data, respectively. These levels of variations are substantially higher than have been reported in the literature for advanced markets suggesting that the concerns of valuation errors in SSA may be well grounded. Consistent with theory, it is further established that variations in valuation opinions may be more pronounced in comparatively more complex assignments. These findings have several implications including possible loss of confidence of market players in valuations, heightening of market uncertainty and increase in transaction costs.     

大连市房地产开发资金来源与价格波动关系研究

基于大连市当前快速上涨的房价问题,根据大连市2004-2012年房地产开发资金来源与房地产价格数据,在利用ADF法对各个时间序列数据进行检验的基础上,运用Granger因果关系检验模型对大连市房地产开发资金来源变动与房价变动之间的因果关系进行分析,并运用灰色关联度方法对与房价有显著Granger因果关系的资金来源之间的关联度进行实证研究。研究结果显示:利用外资与房价的变化并没有直接的因果关系,大连市房地产是以其他资金来源为主,国内贷款和自筹资金对总的资金开发来源的影响处于同一水平。     

Exploring sentiment-driven trading behaviour of different types of investors in the London office market

We investigates the sentiment-driven trading behaviour of the four types of investors in the London office market, i.e. UK institutional investors, UK private investors, UK listed real estate companies/Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT)s and overseas investors. In addition, we examine the relationship between investor sentiment and property performance. Related indices are calculated to examine the existence of herding behaviour of different investors. We find that UK private investors follow a contrarian strategy to UK institutional investors and listed real estate companies/REITs and enter/exit the market at different points of time. UK institutional investors tend to follow the sentiment of UK listed real estate companies/REITs and overseas investors with lags. There is no evidence that overseas investors rely upon the sentiment of UK specialised property investors in their decision-making. We find the sentiment of different investors is influenced differently by market fundamentals. Yield and rental growth rate have significant impact on trading activity of overseas investors, but not on other investors. The stock market return and securitised real estate return have significant impact on the trading activity of UK institutional investor and overseas investor, but have no significant influence on the trading behaviour of UK private investor and listed real estate company/REIT.     

How big is China’s real estate bubble and why hasn’t it burst yet?

This paper represents an international, comparative, empirical study of the relationship between financial crises and real estate development, with a focus on China. We review recent major crises around the world from 1980 to 2014.We then discuss the ways real estate crises develop into financial crises (considering that most recent financial crises actually trace their origins to real estate bubbles). We also look at China’s current economic situation, and identify potential threats to the country's economic development by comparing it with other countries’ historical experiences. A comprehensive analysis of the relationship between real estate and finance predicts an upcoming burst in China’s bubble economy. We explore the deep-seated underlying Chinese systemic causes and characteristics that explain why China’s economic bubble has yet to burst and the possible financial consequences of the real estate bubble in China. Our findings suggest that a financial crisis often emerges from a weak financial system which is too closely linked to the country’s real estate sector. These linkages allow real estate crises to mushroom into financial crises. In turn, these financial crises balloon into macroeconomic crises. China’s current situation is extremely alarming, though the country shows remarkable resilience to crisis as the government seems to possess the tools and capacity to avoid a hard landing. The findings of this research advance our understanding of the consequences of China’s real estate bubble and sound a clear warning to China’s policymakers.     

Urban planning in office markets: A methodological approach

This article stresses the importance of urban planning interventions on real estate office markets in an environment increasingly characterized by globalization processes and progress of information and communication technologies, leaving behind the traditional influence of more market-related variables spread abroad vast literature. It contends that a better indirect control exerted by municipal authorities may launch the performance and characteristics of these markets. Within this scope, an innovative methodology and model are proposed, aimed at assisting municipal decisions in the definition of strategic policies concerning location or relocation of offices, and respective influences over rents. This methodology and this model have a flexible ongoing character that fits the anytime concrete features of local office markets. They are applied, as a case study, to the office market of Oporto city (Portugal). Implications for urban policy are inferred and generalized from this analysis.     

Government intervention in city development of China: A tool of land supply

There has been continuous debate on whether the state can support market-based activities in the land market. It is widely recognized that land markets do not function by themselves, mainly because they are inherently imperfect; this imperfection provides foundation for state intervention. Under the Land Use Rights System of China, land supply is a powerful tool for intervening into land markets, and proceeds from land supply greatly contribute to local revenue and financing of infrastructure construction. The state, however, is not an impartial entity. Its desire to increase local revenue through land leasing has led to the oversupply of land and housing affordability problems in real estate markets. This paper, using evidence from Guangzhou, argues that land supply intervention is a two-edged sword in Chinese city development. It further claims that the state intervention is becoming gradually professional after the real estate market bubble in the early 1990s. Problems, such as structure imbalance in land supply, however, still have negative impacts on the sustainable development of Chinese cities.     

历史遗留项目不动产登记的实证方案与规范选择

研究目的：针对由于开发企业未办理首次登记,导致已经支付价款的新建商品房买受人无法办理转移登记取得物权的不动产登记历史遗留问题,梳理实证解决方案,提出规范路径选择,反思现行登记制度,助益不动产登记立法进程。研究方法：通过功能主义分析视角,展开实证案例研究、规范法教义学研究。研究结果：历史遗留项目的处理方案包括突破连续登记、代位申请登记、要件等效替代、交房即时办证等形式。研究结论：应当保护已经履行合同义务无过错购房人的财产权利,对于质量安全的登记客体,不宜因为开发企业欠缴土地出让金等公法义务未完成不予首次登记。建议明确不动产连续登记原则,增设代位申请制度。     

Refining the real estate pricing model

Investment theory dictates that capitalisation (cap) rates for freehold real estate should be determined by the risk-free nominal rate of return plus the risk premium (RP) less the expected growth rate, with an allowance for depreciation. However, importing the concept of the RP from the capital markets fails to guide investors through the complexities of the asset, or enable exploration of purchaser preferences and behaviour. A refined pricing model for real estate is proposed, based on a concept termed a risk scale, to distinguish between macro (market) and micro (stock) determinants of risk and growth within the RP. This pricing model is estimated for a major global investment market, using a cross-sectional inter-temporal framework, with a data-set of 497 transactions in the London office sector over 2010 Q2–2012 Q3. Average cap rates are estimated at just over 5%, with asset-specific attributes dominating yield determination, with submarket quality and tenant covenant most important; and unexpired term insignificant, surprising during the ‘flight to safety’ characterising the period. International investors bought at lower cap rates, despite the ongoing economic and financial instability of the study period. Improving understanding of pricing behaviour and market transparency is important and may be advanced through the pricing model.     

Forecasting real estate prices in Germany: the role of consumer confidence

The aim of the paper is to analyse the forecasting ability of various potential predictors for real estate prices in Germany over the short term. In the wake of the financial crisis, real estate prices in Germany started to increase markedly and still did so by the end of 2013. Despite a number of fundamental reasons, e.g. favourable lending conditions and Germany’s rapid return to economic growth, this provoked a discussion on whether consumers have too gloomy expectations regarding real estate prices in future. To capture the role of expectations for predicting real estate prices, in our forecast evaluation, we put special emphasis on various components of consumer confidence. Using single indicator models, we find that households’ perceived financial situations as well as their intended consumption/saving plans serve as valuable real estate price predictors.     

中德不动产登记效力比较研究 ——以统一不动产登记效力体系构建为视角

研究目的:对中德不动产登记效力进行比较研究,为制定统一的不动产登记法提供理论支撑。研究方法:比较分析法、规范分析法、案例分析法。研究结果:与中国不动产登记相比,德国不动产登记在区分原则与公示原则的基础上具有统一的物权变动效力;具有明确、统一的权利顺位效力,能够在意思自治原则的基础上准确地解决多项不动产权利之间的冲突;具有以公信原则为基础的权利推定效力与公信力,与无因性原则一道构成了交易安全保护的铁壁铜墙;对于登记错误则赋予权利人以更正登记请求权等完善救济措施。研究结论:中国不动产登记法须从四方面完善不动产登记的效力体系:通过将登记对抗的物权变动统一于登记要件原则之下以进一步统一不动产登记的权利变动效力;强化不动产登记薄的权利推定效力与公信力;构建不动产登记薄的权利顺位效力;增设权利人的不动产登记更正请求权。     

供求关系对大都市商品住宅价格作用机理的分析--以南京市为例

研究目的以商品住宅价格水平及涨幅较为典型的南京市为例,探讨供求关系对商品住宅价格作用的机理.研究方法理论分析和实证分析相结合.研究结果土地供给、商品住宅投资与竣工面积等因素形成的商品住宅供给,与新增人口、城市拆改和改善居住条件等形成的商品住宅自住性需求和投资性需求比为0.48,供求矛盾是拉动南京市商品住宅价格上涨的根源.研究结论供求关系是房价变化的主要因素和决定因素,房地产价格形成主要遵循非价值价格理论,生产成本(地价等)只是房地产价格的构成要素,对房地产价格的作用是有限的.     

Hybridization of valuation procedures as a medicine supporting the real estate market and sustainable land use development during the covid-19 pandemic and afterwards

Currently we are facing the pandemic situation that occur all over the world. Regardless the country or even the region, the negative consequences that are expected could be very big and the level of crisis is not predictable. This situation is the challenge for the real estate market as well. Due to this fact, the authors believe that there is the time when deep transformation of approaches, procedures and awareness related to valuation domain becomes. Today, due to the fact of the global COVID-19 and pandemic restrictions is the best time to implement the automated models and advanced technological solutions to the valuation world.The authors proposed the hybrid approach that is the way to reconcile the participants on the property market. Hybrid approach is understanding as the synergy in combining aspects of new (automated solutions) and traditional components that are developed in the agile mode system creation. The proposed solutions can be treated as a cure for some symptoms of the real estate market infection but also as a vaccine, which should to a large extent prevent restrictions and nuisance in real estate valuation in case of repeated infection.     

The 4% rule: Does real estate make a difference?

This paper examines the wealth maximisation and preservation effects of including commercial real estate in retirement-phase portfolio management. Prior research addresses the role of real estate during the wealth-accumulation phase of the investor lifecycle; however, little is known about the contribution of real estate during the invest-and-spend, or decumulation, phase. To address this issue, we estimate short-fall risk based on the widely known 4% Rule. We use pricing data for multiple asset classes and simulation techniques, combined with a robust correlation structure, to examine: short-fall risk sensitivity to alternative spending rules; the impact of public vs. private real estate allocations; wealth preservation as an investment objective; and the effect of real estate on upside, or wealth maximisation, potential. We find short-fall risk in a decumulation portfolio decreases with substantial allocations to real estate. This result holds for a portfolio including either public or private real estate. Additionally, and under most conditions, the best performing decumulation-phase portfolios include a real estate allocation with both public and private real estate exposure. These results have significant implications for investors, whether they be retirees, plan administrators or endowments, as well as financial economists studying the lifecycle of investment decisions.     

我国房地产泡沫形成的原因及对策分析

改革开放以来,中国的房地产业得到了迅猛的发展。目前,房地产业成为整个社会财富的重要构成,成为推动工业化和城镇化的重要力量,但房地产市场的蓬勃发展与急剧转型,出现了房地产市场泡沫经济现象。基于实证研究结论,通过分析我国房地产发展现状及我国房地产市场泡沫的成因,以典型城市的房地产市场泡沫数据为依托,从银行的角度,针对防范房地产泡沫提出了实行紧缩的房地产信贷政策,调整房地产信贷结构,加强房地产信贷监管等对策和建议。     

Understanding property market operations from a dual institutional perspective: The case of Lagos,Nigeria

This paper examines the Nigeria Land Use Act and considers how provisions of the Act inform and influence traditional landholding systems, the operation of the commercial real estate market, and the activities of the “omo-onile.” The research adopts a qualitative strategy and combines analysis of legal statute with in-depth, semi-structured interviews with market participants active in different capacities within the land and property markets of Lagos, Nigeria.The paper identifies a number of inconsistencies in the provisions of the Act and concludes that the recognition given to the traditional landholding system by the Act has not been effective in tackling informality and illegality in Lagos land and property markets.The paper provides insight into how informal institutions of norms, culture, and conventions of a real estate market characterize property ownership and affect transaction processes. This study shows how informal institutions may be used to circumvent formal institutions of a market when formal rights to property are poorly delineated and assigned. In these conditions market actors will incur higher transaction costs in the process of policing transactions and enforcing contractual agreements.     

An examination of the seasonality in industrial real estate construction

Summary

Though some work has been done to identify variables affecting seasonal variation in detached housing, almost nothing has been done to identify the factors affecting seasonal variations in industrial real estate construction. This paper attempts to identify some of these seasonal factors and their influence on industrial real estate construction. A Chow Test shows that there is a significant difference in the relationship between the amount of industrial real estate put in place and specific economic variables.     

现金流视角下中国房地产行业偿债能力分析——以136家上市公司为例

偿债能力作为房地产行业平稳发展的关键,其管理至关重要。本文在现有现金流偿债指标的基础上,构建偿债能力综合分析框架,并选取沪深A股136家房地产上市企业为样本,分析我国房地产行业的偿债能力现状。研究发现,偿债能力短期波动较大,长期后继无力,资产创造经营性现金流的能力总体偏低。     

Real estate market efficiency

Summary

The application of modern portfolio theory to the investment in shares and bonds is integrally connected with the efficient market hypothesis. The requirement of multivariate normality of security returns is a sufficient condition for equilibrium asset pricing models such as the capital asset pricing model to theoretical work. Nevertheless the empirical relevance in decision making is firmly based on the efficiency of the capital market. If real estate investors are to avail themselves of these techniques it is first necessary to ensure the requirements of the efficient market hypothesis are satisfied in the context of the property market. This paper reports the results of such an inquiry into the British and Australian real estate markets.     

基于主成分分析和德尔菲法的房地产投资环境综合评价体系

研究目的：选用22个主要省会城市的统计数据,确定合理的房地产投资环境评价指标,构建房地产投资环境综合评价体系。研究方法：主成分分析法和德尔菲法。研究结果：从城市宏观经济、房地产市场、基础设施和区位条件4方面初选房地产投资环境评价指标,利用主成分分析法对样本城市的投资环境优劣进行分析,剔除导致排序结果偏差的指标,避免了评价指标选择的盲目性;采用德尔菲法确定各指标权重,建立房地产投资环境的多指标综合评价公式,以此计算22个城市房地产投资环境的综合得分,其排名符合实际情况。研究结论：所构建的房地产投资环境综合评价体系具有较强的逻辑性,评价方法简洁高效,具有良好的应用价值。