Testing the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Through Vector Autoregressive Models: Results from the Euro Area*

This paper addresses the issue of testing the ‘hybrid’ New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) through vector autoregressive (VAR) systems and likelihood methods, giving special emphasis to the case where the variables are non‐stationary. The idea is to use a VAR for both the inflation rate and the explanatory variable(s) to approximate the dynamics of the system and derive testable restrictions. Attention is focused on the ‘inexact’ formulation of the NKPC. Empirical results over the period 1971–98 show that the NKPC is far from providing a ‘good first approximation’ of inflation dynamics in the Euro area.     

Testing the Structural Interpretation of the Price Puzzle with a Cost‐Channel Model*

We estimate a variety of small‐scale new‐Keynesian DSGE models with the cost channel to assess their ability to replicate the ‘price puzzle’, i.e. the inflationary impact of a monetary policy shock typically arising in vector autoregression (VAR) analysis. To correctly identify the monetary policy shock, we distinguish between a standard policy rate shifter and a shock to ‘trend inflation’, i.e. the time‐varying inflation target set by the Fed. Our estimated models predict a negative inflation reaction to a monetary policy tightening. We offer a discussion of the possible sources of mismatch between the VAR evidence and our own.     

The UK and the Eurozone: Sovereign Debt Management and Monetary Policy

Events in the wake of the ‘credit crunch’ can be understood only against institutional structures within which interdependent monetary and fiscal policy are administered. In the Eurozone, the attempt to keep a central monetary authority (together with its associated national central banks) independent from 17 diverse fiscal authorities was flawed. When sovereign debt approaches unmanageable levels, the Maastricht Treaty presents austerity as the single option. In the UK, the electorate has an opportunity to choose between monetary financing (inflation) and fiscal consolidation (austerity). Policy choices within the Eurozone and the UK are set against Keynes's focus on unemployment and more recent concerns to retain (or restore) price and/or financial stability.     

Fiscal and monetary interdependence

Where classical economics integrates the quantity theory of money with the concept of Ricardian equivalence, the tendency of recent macroeconomic presentations is to focus either upon money and inflation or upon taxation and debt. That neglect of classical monetary–fiscal integration is surprising, given an initiative by the International Monetary Fund that set credit, money, and fiscal policy within a single structure. This article places those ‘credit counterparts of broad money’ in the context of the Great Depression and the recent global financial crisis. The upshot is a set of conclusions: that, to counter the prospect of deflation, quantitative easing is a weak policy response; that fiscal deficits are better; and that cuts in taxation are preferable to increased government spending.     

Supply,Factor Shares and Inflation Persistence: Re‐examining Euro‐area New‐Keynesian Phillips Curves*

Using euro‐area data, we re‐examine the empirical success of New‐Keynesian Phillips curves (NKPCs). We re‐estimate with a suitably specified optimizing supply side (which attempts to treat non‐stationarity in factor income shares and mark‐ups) that allows us to derive estimates of technology parameters, marginal costs and ‘price gaps’. Our resulting estimates of the euro‐area NKPCs are robust, provide reasonable estimates for fixed‐price durations and discount rates and embody plausible dynamic properties. Our method for identifying the underlying determinants of NKPCs has general applicability to a wide set of countries as well as of use for sectoral studies.     

HAROLD WILSON'S DEVALUATION: A SALUTARY LESSON

The 1967 sterling devaluation opened the final act of the Keynesian epoch. The assurance ‘that the pound here in Britain, in your pocket or purse or in your bank’ had not been devalued, rests upon a ‘fixed price’ assumption invoked by John Maynard Keynes for the 1930s. It carried the implication that a currency revaluation is the only price change that is relevant to international competitiveness. That is nonsense. Devaluation succeeds in readjusting international payments only if it reduces the value of the pound in our pocket, purse or bank.     

Monetary Policy Indeterminacy and Identification Failures in the U.S.: Results from A Robust Test

We propose a novel identification‐robust test for the null hypothesis that an estimated New Keynesian model has a reduced form consistent with the unique stable solution against the alternative of sunspot‐driven multiple equilibria. Our strategy is designed to handle identification failures as well as the misspecification of the relevant propagation mechanisms. We invert a likelihood ratio test for the cross‐equation restrictions (CER) that the New Keynesian system places on its reduced‐form solution under determinacy. If the CER are not rejected, sunspot‐driven expectations can be ruled out from the model equilibrium and we accept the structural model. Otherwise, we move to a second‐step and invert an Anderson and Rubin‐type test for the orthogonality restrictions (OR) implied by the system of structural Euler equations. The hypothesis of indeterminacy and the structural model are accepted if the OR are not rejected. We investigate the finite‐sample performance of the suggested identification‐robust two‐step testing strategy by some Monte Carlo experiments and then apply it to a New Keynesian AD/AS model estimated with actual US data. In spite of some evidence of weak identification as for the ‘Great Moderation’ period, our results offer formal support to the hypothesis of a switch from indeterminacy to a scenario consistent with uniqueness occurring in the late 1970s. Our identification‐robust full‐information confidence set for the structural parameters computed on the ‘Great Moderation’ regime turns out to be more precise than the intervals previously reported in the literature through ‘limited‐information’ methods. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

THE ECONOMICS OF FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION

Abstract There is no complete overview or discussion of the literature of the economics of federalism and fiscal decentralization, even though scholarly interest in the topic has been increasing significantly over recent years. This paper provides a general, brief but comprehensive overview of the main insights from the literature on fiscal federalism and decentralization. In doing so, literature on fiscal federalism and decentralization is grouped into two main approaches: ‘first generation approach’ and ‘an emerging second generation approach’. The discussion generally covers the two notions of fiscal decentralization: ‘fiscal autonomy’ and ‘fiscal importance’ of subnational governments as the background of the most recently developed index of fiscal decentralization in Vo. The relevance of this discussion to any further development of a fiscal decentralization index is briefly noted.     

基于投入产出结构的中国经济总供给—总需求模型研究

鉴于一般的宏观经济预测模型中缺乏对历史数据反映供需失衡状态的分析,本文构建了一个基于投入产出(IO)分析原理的总供给—总需求(AS-AD)分析框架,以中国1987～2007年投入产出表为基础进行实证分析。结果表明:我国货币政策和财政政策对经济均衡产出水平的影响较小;减税能够改善就业和对外贸易状况,且对劳动者收入改善效果显著;劳动生产率提高是经济增长的有效途径,但需要改善就业和劳动者收入政策措施的配合。     

CRASS KEYNESIANISM

Keynesianism supports make-work schemes without regard for consumers' preferences. The impact of fiscal and monetary policy in corrupting the flow of inter-temporal production is entirely discounted. Where Keynes argued that long-term considerations should not obstruct the implementation of short-term palliatives for immediate problems, Keynesianism fosters belief in the judgement of the state across a wide range of expenditures. In effect, however, Keynesian concepts of aggregate demand and the income multiplier set no basis for sound economic policy.     

EVALUATING SUPPLY-SIDE AND DEMAND-SIDE SHOCKS FOR FISHERIES: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM (CGE) MODEL FOR ALASKA

This study used computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to investigate the economic effects of three exogenous shocks to Alaska fisheries: (1) reduction in pollock allowable catch (TAC); (2) increase in fuel price; and (3) reduction in demand for seafood. Two different model versions, ‘Keynesian’ and ‘neoclassical’, were used to estimate impacts on endogenous output, employment, value added, and household income. By using a CGE model, this study overcomes the limitations of fixed-price models (such as input–output models) including (1) inability to calculate welfare effects due to fixed prices; and (2) difficulty of addressing supply-side shocks. There are currently few examples of CGE studies addressing fisheries issues appearing in the literature. Among those, this study is unique in that it uses a relatively disaggregated sector scheme and examines both supply-side and demand-side shocks.     

New Keynesian monopolistic competition and objective demand

The New Keynesian model of monopolistic competition by Blanchard [Blanchard, O., Kiyotaki, N., 1987. Monopolistic competition and the effects of aggregate demand. American Economic Review 77 (4), 647–666] is reformulated according to an objective demand approach making the behavior of all agents fully rational. The revised model is compared with the original model in terms of prices, quantities and welfare. Working with the revised model enhances the validity of the menu-cost argument and, different from the original model, implies that price rigidity is increasing in market concentration.     

Income Distributive Effects in the Brazilian Economy

Studies aiming to evaluate the structural distribution of economic impacts usually treat consumption demand as an exogenous variable. In this case, the Leontief matrix multiplier lacks the multiplier process via the consumption function that one customarily finds in a Keynesian model. To regard the consumption as a fictitious production activity is not the appropriate procedure. Instead, the Keynesian consumption function is introduced at a disaggregated level. For that, a matrix multiplier was formulated in order to combine Leontief's propagation process with the Keynesian propagation process. This matrix includes the effects of endogenous changes in consumption demand. Based on the present production structure in Brazil, the results show how the propagation effect directs the induced income towards capitalists, depriving wage earners. The model also allows for evaluation of diverse effects of the propagation process according to income and consumption coefficients by sector.     

No End to the Consensus in Macroeconomic Theory? A Methodological Inquiry

After the acrimonious debates between the New Classical and New Keynesian economists in the 1980s and 1990s, a consensus developed, namely, the New Neoclassical Synthesis. However, the 2007 credit crunch exposed the severe limitations of this approach. This article presents a methodological analysis of the New Neoclassical Synthesis and how the paradigmatic heuristic of the representative agent, namely, market clearing subject to sticky prices, excluded the Keynesian notion of involuntary unemployment arising from lack of effective demand. It shows these models may be modified to produce Keynesian results, but are ruled out of consideration by proponents of the New Neoclassical approach by weak incommensurability. It concludes that because of this the New Neoclassical Synthesis, in spite of its failure to explain the sub‐prime crisis, is likely to resist successfully the resurgence in Keynesian economics.     

THE CHINA MODEL: IS IT A GOLDEN FORMULA?

The economic crisis is an opportunity for governments to face the fact that Keynesian interventionist policies are not the path to success. However, support for such policies is being sustained by misperceptions of China's remarkable economic progress in recent years. Its success is commonly attributed to government‐led initiatives, labelled as ‘The China Model’, which divert credit away from the true source of growth: its experience of the free market. This article examines the development of the free market in China and explains why the government's recent behaviour threatens to undermine the gains of recent decades.     

Partial fiscal decentralization and demand responsiveness of the local public sector: Theory and evidence from Norway

This paper provides an empirical test of a principal tenet of fiscal federalism: that spending discretion, when granted to localities, allows public-good levels to adjust to suit local demands. The test is based on a simple model of partial fiscal decentralization, under which earmarking of central transfers for particular uses is eliminated, allowing funds to be spent according to local tastes. The greater role of local demand determinants following partial decentralization is confirmed by the paper’s empirical results, which show the effects of the 1986 Norwegian reform.     

MILTON FRIEDMAN ON THE INEFFECTIVENESS OF FISCAL POLICY

This article examines the evolution of the views of Milton Friedman on the (lack of) effectiveness of fiscal policy as compared with monetary policy. Though his views changed, it would not be accurate to say that he began as a naïve Keynesian. The empirical evidence bears out Friedman's later views.     

Weak Identification of Forward‐looking Models in Monetary Economics*

Recently, single‐equation estimation by the generalized method of moments (GMM) has become popular in the monetary economics literature, for estimating forward‐looking models with rational expectations. We discuss a method for analysing the empirical identification of such models that exploits their dynamic structure and the assumption of rational expectations. This allows us to judge the reliability of the resulting GMM estimation and inference and reveals the potential sources of weak identification. With reference to the New Keynesian Phillips curve of Galí and Gertler [Journal of Monetary Economics (1999) Vol. 44, 195] and the forward‐looking Taylor rules of Clarida, Galí and Gertler [Quarterly Journal of Economics (2000) Vol. 115, 147], we demonstrate that the usual ‘weak instruments’ problem can arise naturally, when the predictable variation in inflation is small relative to unpredictable future shocks (news). Hence, we conclude that those models are less reliably estimated over periods when inflation has been under effective policy control.     

Energy intensity and directed fiscal policy

This paper assesses the effects of fiscal policy on economy-wide energy intensity within an endogenous growth framework. To this end, we first develop a two-sector (investment good and consumption good) augmented AK model by integrating the Uzawa model with Rebelo’s AK model, and assume that a non-renewable resource is one of the factors of production. Using this framework, we solve the model for the short and long run, identifying the sufficient parameter conditions that ensure higher energy intensity in the investment goods sector. We then introduce a balanced budget government, whose objective is to decrease the economy-wide energy intensity by levying tax on the energy-intensive investment goods sector and subsidizing the consumption goods sector. Contrary to our expectations, we find that this fiscal policy design increases economy-wide energy intensity as it leads to a decline in real GDP without changing total energy consumption. On the basis of this model, we propose the concept of a ‘directed fiscal policy’, which connotes a reduction of the economy-wide energy intensity by following a heterogeneous taxation policy across sectors.     

凯恩斯假设下AD-AS模型的比较静态分析

在凯恩斯假设下的AD-AS模型是一个静态分析模型,文章在假设下,讨论了财政政策和货币政策对产出和价格、利率和投资的影响,分析结果表明:财政政策和货币政策对产出水平和劳动力市场的失业率具有直接的影响,结果同的假设下的分析结果相同,不过变动幅度同以上不同。