危机蔓延凸显全球金融体系缺位

二十一世纪初,美国为了拯救新经济危机而实施的宽松的货币政策,长期维持低利率发行的美元,通过全球化和金融自由化,制造了全球的流动性过剩,带来了国际石油价格、资产价格的大幅上涨,形成了全球资产价格泡沫和全球通胀。     

中国国际收支双顺差的成因、影响和再平衡机制研究

中国国际收支的双顺差问题由来已久。双顺差带来的外汇储备巨额累积形成人民币升值压力,同时造成流动性过剩,使得中国经济存在通货膨胀和资产价格泡沫预期,央行数量型紧缩货币政策并不能"封存"过剩流动性乃至消除流动性过剩带来的不良影响,需要实现国际收支的再平衡才能彻底消除流动性过剩的威胁。从双顺差的内涵和现状分析入手,研究双顺差的成因及其对中国经济利益的影响,并提出中国国际收支的再平衡机制和政策建议。     

樊纲：资产泡沫令人担忧

央行货币政策委员樊纲2月1日称,中国的通货膨胀问题和资产泡沫压力＂令人担忧＂,但居民消费价格指数（CPI）不会轻易大涨,资产泡沫是真正应担忧的问题。樊纲表示,中国是本轮危机中全球复苏最早、最快的国家,但目前流动性过剩是个问题，因此，流动性管理应该成为抑制资产泡沫的工具之一。     

美国应对资产泡沫的货币政策及其启示

本文分析了美联储应对20世纪90年代美国股市泡沫的货币政策,认为美联储成功之处在于泡沫破灭之后进行的强有力干预,其对资产价格给予的密切关注也得到普遍认可,但是美联储在泡沫形成时期奉行的不干预政策则一直饱受争议。本文进一步指出,由于美国和美元的特殊地位,美联储的政策不具有普适性。从美国应对资产泡沫的货币政策中,我国央行可以得到以下启示:除了要密切关注资产价格外,还需要对资产价格实行对称干预,同时干预手段要多样化,政策措施也要连续,只有这样才能成功地干预资产泡沫。     

美流动性“自然”减缩

尽管美联储议息会议仍维持现行低利率不变,但美联储货币政策支持力度正在减弱。就目前的情况来看,美元升势还将延续,这里强烈建议投资者关注美元升值可能对中国资产价格产生的影响。     

樊纲:资产泡沫令人担忧

央行货币政策委员樊纲2月1日称,中国的通货膨胀问题和资产泡沫压力令人担忧,但居民消费价格指数(CPI)不会轻易大涨,资产泡沫是真正应担忧的问题。樊纲表示,中国是本轮危机中全球复苏最早、最快的国家,但目前流动性过剩是个     

资产泡沫与美联储的货币政策

美联储为应对金融危机和经济衰退而采取的各种货币政策措施使其资产负债表快速膨胀,加之今年3月美联储宣布正式实施数量宽松政策,引起各界对未来资产价格是否会再次出现泡沫的讨论。本文认为美联储的货币政策对于上世纪90年代末的科技股泡沫和本世纪初的房地产泡沫的形成及膨胀提供了宽松的货币环境;而本次美联储为应对危机的各项货币政策措施将使利率保持较长期低水平的同时带来基础货币的大量投放,在美国经济结构和增长模式没有发生改变、美元的国际霸权地位没有动摇的背景下,全球资产泡沫可能会再次出现。     

次贷危机对我国商业银行的影响及启示

随着美国高科技经济泡沫的破裂和“9．11”事件的发生,美联储为改变经济增长放缓的局面,自2001年以来,实行了宽松的货币政策,连续降低联邦基准利率。增加了市场流动性,推动了房地产价格的上涨和房贷需求的膨胀．催生了次级住房抵押贷款的快速发展。同时．持续的低利率增加了金融市场高风险、高收益产品的需求．进一步促进了住房抵押贷款证券化产品的发展。这样就以消费者次贷为基础资产．在消费者、抵押贷款机构、投资银行、机构投资者之间形成了收益、风险转移和资金供给的链条,极大地提高了这些机构的杠杆比率．降低了风险承受能力．也造成了次贷的过度膨胀,产生了信用泡沫。2004年下半年．美联储开始提高基准利率．次贷消费者还款压力增大．同时市场流动性降低,房地产价格开始下跌．造成了次贷违约率急剧上升．以此为基础资产的证券化金融产品价值也急剧缩水,美国金融市场在宽松货币政策和市场流动性充足条件下形成的收益、风险转移和资金供给链条断开．维持高杠杆比率的机构出现流动性风险．2007年4月,美国次贷行业的第二大公司新世纪金融宣布倒闭．次贷危机开始．并逐渐影响到国际金融市场。     

流动性冲击、货币政策失误与金融危机——对美国金融危机的反思

本文认为:(1)流动性冲击主要通过资产负债表渠道和资产价格渠道来影响金融市场,正是这两种渠道才使得流动性在金融危机爆发及传导的过程中扮演了重要角色。借款人的资产负债表效应导致损失螺旋和保证金螺旋的产生,造成资产的折价销售,推动了资产价格的下跌和进一步的银根紧缩;(2)房地产泡沫的形成与美联储的货币政策失误、金融市场结构变化、新布雷顿森林体系以及投资者的羊群行为等有关,房地产泡沫破灭是美国金融危机的导火索;(3)金融危机爆发后,美联储通过调整中央银行的资产负债表,推出各种形式的金融创新工具,向金融市场注入流动性,有效地降低了金融市场崩溃的概率。论文最后从流动性管理的角度,对美国金融危机进行了反思。     

全球流动性与大宗商品价格探析

过去几年,全球流动性问题成为各界研究热议的焦点,很多学者对全球流动性及过剩问题给予了定义和解释,尽管还存在很多分歧,但就形成全球流动性过剩的根源却基本达成一致:即发达国家以低利率为特征的宽松货币政策和新兴市场国家外汇储备增加导致基础货币发行增加是导致全球流动性过剩的基本原因。     

美联储“量化宽松”货币政策的原因、影响与启示

为应对全球金融危机,美联储实施了非常时期的量化宽松货币政策。本文对美联储实施该政策的原因、积极和消极影响进行了深入分析。同时,美联储未雨绸缪,提出该政策的退出机制,对我国今后一段时期如何在经济逐步启稳后把握恰当的时机和节奏实现适度宽松货币政策的及时转向,防范通货膨胀和资产泡沫风险具有非常重要的启示。     

A Model of Monetary Policy Shocks for Financial Crises and Normal Conditions

Deteriorating economic conditions in late 2008 led the Federal Reserve to lower the target federal funds rate to near zero, inject liquidity through novel facilities, and engage in large‐scale asset purchases. The combination of conventional and unconventional policy measures prevents using the effective federal funds rate to assess the effects of monetary policy beyond 2008. We employ a broad monetary aggregate to elicit the effects of monetary policy shocks both before and after 2008. Our estimates align well with major changes in the Fed's asset purchase programs and yield responses that are free from price, output, and liquidity puzzles that plague other approaches.     

美国货币政策溢出效应、中国资产价格波动与资本账户管理

本文以2016年美国加息事件为背景,研究美国货币政策对中国资本流动、资产价格和宏观经济的影响。基于小国开放动态随机一般均衡模型,本文梳理了美国货币政策溢出效应的具体传导渠道,发现国外利率升高后,资本流动具有外部性,导致国内资产价格下跌,其通过金融加速器进一步使国内投资下降、资产价格进一步下跌,从而使得国内资产预期回报进一步下降,加剧资本外流。基于政策和福利分析,本文发现资本账户管理可以有效缓解国外利率冲击对经济波动的影响,同时会提高货币政策的独立性,但也会影响国民财富的最优配置。因此,最优的资本账户管理应同时兼顾宏观审慎和效率两个方面。     

Analyzing Federal Reserve asset purchases: From whom does the Fed buy?

Asset purchases have become an important monetary policy tool of the Federal Reserve in recent years. To date, most studies of the Federal Reserve’s asset purchases have tried to measure the interest rate effects of the purchases, and several provide evidence that these purchases do have important effects on longer-term market interest rates. The theory of how asset purchases work, however, is less well developed. Some of the empirical studies point to “preferred habitat” models in which investors do not have the same objectives, and therefore prefer to hold different types and maturities of securities. To study this more closely, we exploit Flow of Funds data to assess the types of investors that are selling to the Federal Reserve and their portfolio adjustment after these sales, which could provide a view to the plausibility of preferred habitat models and the transmission of unconventional monetary policy across asset markets. We find that the Federal Reserve is ultimately buying from only a handful of investor types, primarily households (which includes hedge funds), with a different reaction to changes in Federal Reserve holdings of longer-term versus shorter-term assets. Although not evident for all investors, the key participants are shown to rebalance their portfolios toward more risky assets during this period. These results can be interpreted as supporting, at least in part, the preferred habit theory and the view that the monetary policy transmission is working across asset markets.     

量化宽松政策影响中国房产泡沫传导机制研究(英文)

美联储在2010年11月4日实施了第二轮量化宽松政策,这使得中国境内货币流动性大大增加。激增的美元数量给人民币升值带来了巨大压力。本文基于对后续连锁效应的分析,探索并总结了其影响中国房价泡沫的可能传到机制。最后给出了相关政策建议。     

美联储如何制定货币政策?

编者按:不管是否情愿,我们已经身处金融全球化的潮流之中.远在美国的次级债危机不仅重创了号称成熟的资本市场--中国香港股市,就连受资本项目防火墙保护的中国A股市场也随之暴跌不止,这使我们感受到了金融全球化带来的风险全球化的"寒流".     

Monetary policy,bond returns and debt dynamics

Using the government׳s intertemporal budget constraint, we quantify the contribution of returns paid on the U.S. government׳s debt portfolio to the evolution of the debt-to-GDP ratio. We show that announcements of unconventional monetary policy measures by the Federal Reserve between 2008.IV and 2012, as a part of macroeconomic stabilization, were associated with a sizable increase in returns and debt-to-GDP ratios and contributed to fiscal imbalances. We use the Federal Reserve׳s portfolio composition as a proxy for unconventional monetary policy measures and show that it is significantly related to future bond returns and fiscal balances.     

次贷危机后美国货币政策对我国溢出效应研究

次贷危机爆发后美国经济遭受重创,国内经济萎靡。为此美联储采取了一系列宽松的货币政策。随着全球经济一体化的发展,一国货币政策的实施必然会对其他国家的经济产生溢出效应。本文通过建立向量自回归模型研究次贷危机后美国货币政策对我国的溢出效应。研究结果表明：消费者价格指数、工业增加值、联邦基金利率和广义货币供应量之间存在一个长期的协整关系。美国扩张性货币政策引起我国输入性通货膨胀,且对我国产出有一个负向的影响。     

Central bank announcements of asset purchases and the impact on global financial and commodity markets

We present evidence on the effects of large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England since 2008. We show that announcements about these purchases led to lower long-term interest rates and depreciations of the U.S. dollar and the British pound on announcement days, while commodity prices generally declined despite this more stimulative financial environment. We suggest that LSAP announcements likely involved signaling effects about future growth that led investors to downgrade their U.S. growth forecasts lowering long-term US yields, depreciating the value of the U.S. dollar, and triggering a decline in commodity prices. Moreover, our analysis illustrates the importance of controlling for market expectations when assessing these effects. We find that positive U.S. monetary surprises led to declines in commodity prices, even as long-term interest rates fell and the U.S. dollar depreciated. In contrast, on days of negative U.S. monetary surprises, i.e. when markets evidently believed that monetary policy was less stimulatory than expected, long-term yields, the value of the dollar, and commodity prices all tended to increase.     

Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy Uncertainty

We document that a trading strategy that is short the U.S. dollar and long other currencies exhibits significantly larger excess returns on days with scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements. We show that these excess returns (i) are higher for currencies with higher interest rate differentials vis‐à‐vis the United States, (ii) increase with uncertainty about monetary policy, and (iii) increase further when the Federal Reserve adopts a policy of monetary easing. We interpret these excess returns as compensation for monetary policy uncertainty within a parsimonious model of constrained financiers who intermediate global demand for currencies.