Liquidity effects on price and return co-movements in commodity futures markets

Commodity price comovement is an important research area in finance, and previous studies have investigated the determinants of price comovement using low-frequency (monthly or quarterly) macroeconomic data. In comparison, our paper attempts to scrutinize the liquidity effect on commodity prices and return movements based on daily data. Our findings contribute to the literature in three ways. First, we find significant positively correlated price movements across different commodity markets on a daily basis, and such comovement is driven by the cross-sectional liquidity spillover effect. Second, we observe that a cointegration relationship between individual commodity prices and the global price index can be established only if the liquidity effect is controlled. Finally, instantaneous daily liquidity shocks (i.e., innovation) exert a negative impact on daily commodity returns. However, liquidity shocks do not have a significant impact on monthly returns. Our findings are robust and have significant implications for macroeconomic policymaking, such as managing inflation risk.     

What does futures market interest tell us about the macroeconomy and asset prices?

Economists have traditionally viewed futures prices as fully informative about future economic activity and asset prices. We argue that open interest could be more informative than futures prices in the presence of hedging demand and limited risk absorption capacity in futures markets. We find that movements in open interest are highly pro-cyclical, correlated with both macroeconomic activity and movements in asset prices. Movements in commodity market interest predict commodity returns, bond returns, and movements in the short rate even after controlling for other known predictors. To a lesser degree, movements in open interest predict returns in currency, bond, and stock markets.     

Empirical analysis of real and financial volatilities on stock excess returns: evidence from Taiwan industrial data

This paper tests the relation between stock excess returns and risk factors measured by volatility. The sources of the volatility are based on the volatility of macroeconomic factors and time-series volatility. To model the macroeconomic fundamentals, we divide the risk into real and financial volatilities pertinent to Taiwan's economic environment. By examining the data of indusry excess returns and market excess returns, we find evidence to reject the hypothesis that the stock excess returns are independent of the real and financial volatilities.     

Changes in the international comovement of stock returns and asymmetric macroeconomic shocks

We study whether asymmetric macroeconomic shocks help to explain changes in the international comovement of monthly stock returns in major industrialized countries over the period 1975–2004. Based on a time-varying parameter model, we trace out how the pattern of international comovement of stock returns changed over time. In order to identify asymmetric macroeconomic shocks, we estimate vector-autoregressive models. The results of estimating time-series regression models and panel-data models indicate that changes in the international comovement of stock returns are not systematically linked to macroeconomic shocks.     

Is idiosyncratic asymmetry priced in commodity futures?

In this article, we use a recently introduced asymmetry measure, IE, to measure the idiosyncratic asymmetry of commodity futures returns and find that idiosyncratic asymmetry negatively and significantly predicts commodity futures returns cross sectionally. Furthermore, we find that a long–short trading strategy based on idiosyncratic asymmetry generates significant abnormal returns, which cannot be explained by traditional risk factors in commodity futures and persists up to 12 months. Moreover, idiosyncratic asymmetry appears to be a priced factor in commodity futures with significant risk premium. Finally, we confirm that IE is better at capturing the pricing effect of idiosyncratic asymmetry than the traditional skewness measure.     

Estimating Oil Risk Factors Using Information from Equity and Derivatives Markets

We introduce a novel approach to estimating latent oil risk factors and establish their significance in pricing nonoil securities. Our model, which features four factors with simple economic interpretations, is estimated using both derivative prices and oil‐related equity returns. The fit is excellent in and out of sample. The extracted oil factors carry significant risk premia, and are significantly related to macroeconomic variables as well as portfolio returns sorted on characteristics and industry. The average nonoil portfolio exhibits a sensitivity to the oil factors amounting to a sixth (in magnitude) of that of the oil industry itself.     

The Relationship Between Energy Commodity Prices and Electricity and Market Index Performances: Evidence from an Emerging Market

We investigate the effect of energy commodity price movements on market and electricity index returns in Turkey for the periods before, during, and after the year 2008. Although the Turkish economy is highly reliant on oil, we find that oil price does not lead either electricity or market indexes. This might be attributable to sluggish integration of financial markets in Turkey compared to developed markets. Natural gas price leads electricity index in the pre-2008 period. Its significance is reduced following the decline in natural gas usage in electricity production. This suggests that commodity dependence may be driving the link between commodity and asset prices in related sectors.     

中国大宗商品期货市场定价机制研究

大宗商品期货市场是我国资本市场的重要组成部分,其定价有效性关系到投资者套期保值和价格发现等功能的实现。本文对国际前沿研究中常用的定价因子进行全面系统梳理,并对这些因子对我国商品期货合约收益率的解释和预测能力进行检验。在此基础上,本文构建了适用于我国大宗商品期货市场的包含市场、基差以及基差动量的三因子定价模型。进一步研究表明,基于大宗商品存储理论和现货存货数据构建的投资组合收益率可以被本文三因子模型有效解释,验证了经典的存储理论在我国的适用性。此外,本文对基差与基差动量两个重要因子的经济学意义进行了阐释。本文研究为进一步厘清大宗商品期货市场定价机制提供了一定参考。     

原油价格与经济政策不确定性对大宗商品市场非对称冲击效应研究

利用面板分位回归模型,考量不同市场环境下原油价格与经济政策不确定性对大宗商品市场非对称性冲击效应。结果表明：油价冲击对中国大宗商品收益的影响具有非对称性,正负油价冲击对其均有促进作用,但随着市场环境好转,正油价冲击的作用逐渐增强,负油价冲击则逐渐减弱;政策不确定性对大宗商品收益有促进作用,但在牛市环境下有抑制作用;且危机前后,油价冲击对大宗商品收益的影响存在非对称性效应。     

Regime Change and the Role of International Markets on the Stock Returns of Small Open Economies

We examine the influence of US, UK and German macroeconomic and financial variables on the stock returns of two relatively small, open European economies, Ireland and Denmark. Within a nonlinear framework, we allow for time variation via regime switching using a smooth transition regression (STR) model. We find that US (global) and UK and German (regional) stock returns are significant determinants of returns in both markets. Further, global information represented by oil and US asset price movements drive changes between states in each market. Significantly, the role of country‐specific domestic variables is typically confined to a single state while global and regional variables pervade all states.     

The predictability of aggregate returns on commodity futures

This paper provides evidence that aggregate returns on commodity futures (without the returns on collateral) are predictable, both in-sample and out-of-sample, by various lagged variables from the stock market, bond market, macroeconomics, and the commodity market. Out of the 32 candidate predictors we consider, we find that investor sentiment is the best in-sample predictor of short-horizon returns, whereas the level and slope of the yield curve have much in-sample predictive power for long-horizon returns. We find that it is possible to forecast aggregate returns on commodity futures out-of-sample through several combination forecasts (the out-of-sample return forecasting R² is up to 1.65% at the monthly frequency).     

Market States and Momentum

We test overreaction theories of short-run momentum and long-run reversal in the cross section of stock returns. Momentum profits depend on the state of the market, as predicted. From 1929 to 1995, the mean monthly momentum profit following positive market returns is 0.93%, whereas the mean profit following negative market returns is −0.37%. The up-market momentum reverses in the long-run. Our results are robust to the conditioning information in macroeconomic factors. Moreover, we find that macroeconomic factors are unable to explain momentum profits after simple methodological adjustments to take account of microstructure concerns.     

Business cycle,storage, and energy prices

This study examines the effect of the state of the economy and inventory on interest-adjusted bases and expected returns for five energy commodities. We find that interest-adjusted bases and returns have a business cycle pattern. Consistent with the theory of storage, demand shocks near business cycle peaks generate negative interest-adjusted bases and positive returns. In recessions, the bases become positive, and the average returns are negative. Our regression results also show that the interest-adjusted bases of energy commodities are counter-cyclical and the expected returns are pro-cyclical. For petroleum commodities, inventory has a significant effect on interest-adjusted bases at low levels of inventory, whereas at high inventory levels the effect of inventory on the bases is weak. Finally, we find that the bases and economic conditions predict spot returns in energy commodity markets.     

Commodity financialization and sector ETFs: Evidence from crude oil futures

We investigate the diversification benefits of energy assets in the setting of commodity financialization using data on crude oil futures and Sector ETFs (SPDRs). Correlations between commodities and financial assets increased during the post-Commodity Futures Modernization Act (CFMA)/commodity bull cycle period, resulting in lower benefits of diversification. However, we find that conditional correlations between crude oil futures and sector ETFs meaningfully increased only since the 2008–09 financial crisis. The results therefore suggest that the financial crisis, rather than CFMA regulation, explains changes in the diversification benefits of commodities. Moreover, we find that oil futures returns are less correlated with SPDRs than with the S&P index. Thus, energy futures, and crude oil in particular, offer the potential for diversification benefits in sector-style investing.     

Drivers of holding period firm-level returns in private equity-backed buyouts

We extend the research on the drivers of holding period firm-level returns in private equity (PE)-backed buyouts by examining deal-, industry-, and macroeconomic-level drivers and their interaction. To conduct our study, we use a comprehensive and hand-collected dataset covering exited buyouts in the UK between 1995–2004, and we control for sample selection and investment risk. Our study shows that governance variables generally have a limited role in driving value creation but that use of a ratchet is positively related to both equity and enterprise value returns; we also find that leverage has a positive impact on median and top-quartile equity returns. Moreover, returns are driven by the size of the buyout and the acquisitions made during the holding period. With respect to macroeconomic and industry level factors, industry growth particularly drives buyout returns. However, the effect of industry growth is not uniform; its influence is particularly strong in insider-driven and divisional buyouts, in addition to top-quartile transactions.     

Are there common factors in individual commodity futures returns?

We explore whether there are common factors in the cross-section of individual commodity futures returns. We test various asset pricing models which have been employed for the equities market as well as models motivated by commodity pricing theories. The use of these families of models allows us also to test whether the commodities and equities market are integrated. In addition, we employ principal components factor models which do not require à priori specification of factors. We find that none of the models is successful. Our results imply that commodity markets are segmented from the equities market and they are considerably heterogeneous per se.     

The joint response of stock and foreign exchange markets to macroeconomic surprises: Using US and Japanese data

This paper investigates the joint response of stock and foreign exchange (FX) market returns to macroeconomic surprises, employing a system method of estimation that allows for the cross-country and cross-market interaction for asset returns and risk premia. Using US and Japanese data, we find that US stock markets are asymmetrically responsive to domestic developments in output growth and interest rates but are not influenced by macroeconomic surprises from Japan. The surprise in the FX market seems to affect stock markets in the US and Japan, respectively. In particular, we find that the interest rate surprise in the US and inflation surprise in Japan tend to overstate the impact that these surprises would have on the respective stock market. The impact of the surprises would appear smaller if macroeconomic developments induced by the FX market were incorporated into the model.     

Macroeconomic risk and hedge fund returns

This paper estimates hedge fund and mutual fund exposure to newly proposed measures of macroeconomic risk that are interpreted as measures of economic uncertainty. We find that the resulting uncertainty betas explain a significant proportion of the cross-sectional dispersion in hedge fund returns. However, the same is not true for mutual funds, for which there is no significant relationship. After controlling for a large set of fund characteristics and risk factors, the positive relation between uncertainty betas and future hedge fund returns remains economically and statistically significant. Hence, we argue that macroeconomic risk is a powerful determinant of cross-sectional differences in hedge fund returns.     

Return and volatility co-movement in commodity futures markets: the effects of liquidity risk

Commodity markets are a widely researched topic in the field of finance. In this paper, we investigate the co-movement of return and volatility measures in different commodity futures markets and how these measures are affected by liquidity risk. First, we find that commodity returns display co-movement and that liquidity risk plays a key role in shaping asset return patterns. Moreover, we show that the volatilities of commodity returns co-move, and we demonstrate the role of liquidity risk in this joint pattern. We also find that the commodity markets we investigated share a common volatility factor that determines their joint volatility co-movement. Because liquidity risk affects both commodity returns and volatility shocks, it might be interpreted as the common causal factor driving both measures simultaneously. Therefore, we affirm the view that liquidity shocks are firmly related to two residual risks originating from both market return and market volatility. Finally, we also show that liquidity spillovers can significantly drive cross-sectional correlation dynamics.     

Size,value, and momentum in developed country equity returns: Macroeconomic and liquidity exposures

The paper investigates value and momentum factors in 23 developed international stock markets. We find that typically value and momentum premia are smaller and more negatively correlated for large market capitalization stocks relative to small. Momentum factors are more highly correlated internationally relative to value. We provide international evidence on three sets of risk exposures of value and momentum returns: macroeconomic risk, funding liquidity risk, and stock market liquidity risk. We find that value returns are typically lower prior to a recession while momentum returns often exhibit little sensitivity. Value returns are typically lower in times of poor funding liquidity, whereas, with notable exceptions, momentum returns are typically unaffected. Lastly, for almost all countries, value returns are high in poor stock market liquidity conditions.