数字

发改委官员：预计今年CPI涨幅4．6％GDP增幅8％；2007年吸收外资747亿美元外企缴纳税逾9900亿。     

人民币升值对于通货膨胀的影响

今年7月,全国的居民消费价格指数(CPI)达到了6.4%,一般说来当CPI涨幅>3%的增幅时,我们称为通货膨胀;而当CPI涨幅>5%的增幅时,我们把他称为严重的通货膨胀。我们现在的CPI达到了6.4%的水平,通货膨胀已经相当严重。与此同时,由于美国的主权信用评级的降低,美元汇率的不断走低,人民币还在持续的升值中,     

对今年经济和价格工作的几点建议

今年以来,我国经济适度增长,增速总体稳中有落,二季度可能降至8%以下,全年GDP增幅在8%～8.5%之间。同时,预计今年全年CPI涨幅将在3%-3.5%之间,其中二、三季度价格涨幅总体趋降,四季度会略有反弹。从目前情况看,今年价格上涨的压力将明显减小,但也应看到,今年我国居民生活成本以及经济运行中劳动力成本的刚性增加,对后期价格总水平会产生一定的压力。特别是资源     

滞胀风险

国家统计局发布的2012年一季度的经济数据显示,GDP同比增长8.1%,连续第5个季度增幅下降。而此前发布的CPI数据显示,受食品价格上涨因素推动,3月全国CPI同比上涨3.6%。     

浅析短期CPI变化

本文首先分析了与宏观经济指数CPI有关的几个经济指标,如PPI、M2、GDP、PMI等,分别介绍了这些指数单独以及同时作用后对CPI的影响。然后考虑季节因素,基于2008年1月至2011年12月这些指数的月度数据进行调整,并运用回归分析与数学建模的方法,建立与CPI有关的数学模型,预测短期CPI的变化,分析我国政府采取的货币政策对宏观经济的影响。     

房价涨幅与CPI涨幅的关系研究

人们感觉房价涨跌与CPI涨跌幅度不一致的主要原因,是CPI计算过程中没有直接包括房价因素。实质上房价涨幅与CPI涨幅之间既相互促进又相互制约,二者通过居住类因素的价格变动来实现相互促进,通过政府采取的"抑制通货膨胀"、"防范金融危机"措施来实现相互制约。目前既要调整CPI计算方案,又要建立房价涨幅与CPI涨幅的组合控制标准。     

高盛：预计2011年GDP同比增长10％

高盛最新研究报告表示,政策收紧对增长的影响可能在2011年3月显现,中国经济增速在2011年二季度可能面临一些下行风险,预计2011年GDP同比增长10％,CPI同比增幅分别为4．3％。报告预计,2010年中国经济波动较大,一季度面临过热压力,二季度增长因政策介入而明显放缓、三季度强劲反弹,而四季度过热压力可能再度显现。全年GDP同比增幅有望实现10．1％。     

万象

社科院：明年中国GDP增长率将达9% 中国社会科学院在2009年12月7日发布的2010年《经济蓝皮书》中预测,2010年中国GDP增长率将回升到9％左右,CPI涨幅在3％以内,不会出现明显通胀。蓝皮书预计,2070年,固定资产投资仍将保持较高增速,预计名义增长率为23．9％,固定资产投资占GDP的比重可能超过70％。     

点击

4月全国居民消费价格上涨3%今年CPI涨幅首度回落国家统计局14日发布的数据显示,4月份我国居民消费价格总水平(CPI)同比上涨3.0%,涨幅比3月份回落0.3个百分点。这是今年以来我国CPI同比涨幅的首度回落。1     

2010年我国GDP增长率9．5％左右

近日，中国社科院在京发布2010年《经济蓝皮书》。蓝皮书指出，2010年我国经济有望全面复苏，GDP（国内生产总值）的增长将稳步回升到9％，经济不会出现明显通胀，CPI（居民消费价格指数）涨幅在3％以内。     

Forecasting the UK economy with a medium-scale Bayesian VAR

We estimate a Bayesian VAR (BVAR) for the UK economy and assess its performance in forecasting GDP growth and CPI inflation in real time relative to forecasts from COMPASS, the Bank of England’s DSGE model, and other benchmarks. We find that the BVAR outperformed COMPASS when forecasting both GDP and its expenditure components. In contrast, their performances when forecasting CPI were similar. We also find that the BVAR density forecasts outperformed those of COMPASS, despite under-predicting inflation at most forecast horizons. Both models over-predicted GDP growth at all forecast horizons, but the issue was less pronounced in the BVAR. The BVAR’s point and density forecast performances are also comparable to those of a Bank of England in-house statistical suite for both GDP and CPI inflation, as well as to the official Inflation Report projections. Our results are broadly consistent with the findings of similar studies for other advanced economies.     

我国经济与物价的中长期发展前景

在国内宏观调控政策保持相对稳定、美欧日经济平稳增长的情况下,2011年我国经济增速将回调到9.7%左右,2012～2015年将保持10%左右的较快增长状态。2011年和2012年我国通货膨胀压力较大,CPI涨幅将超过5%。2012年以后食品价格和CPI涨幅趋于下降,但非食品价格仍将保持较快上涨态势,内在通胀压力依然存在。可通过适度控制交易性货币供给增速和工资上涨幅度、加大人民币升值幅度等措施缓解物价上涨压力,但需要处理好抑制物价上涨和稳定经济增长的关系。     

中国新一轮通货膨胀成因浅析——结合统计指标及近年国内外宏观调控政策的分析

近期中国出现了新一轮的通货膨胀态势,CPI自2010年5月较上月增长超过3%以来连续走高,2010年10月CPI较上月增加4.4%,11月这一数字达到了5.1%。持续上涨的物价给居民生活带来了极大的压力,物价满意度创11年来新低。通货膨胀的成因主要有需求拉上型、成本推动型和输入型三大类,每一类又有其不同的构成部分。那么,究其原因,我国新一轮的通货膨胀是受哪种类型的影响,近年或内外经济形势以及应对其采取的措施对中国最近的通胀现象又有何影响。文章将以统计指标为依据结合文献资料通过对3种原因的论述分析阐述观点,得出个人看法与结论。     

通货膨胀传导机制研究——基于货币供给和经济增长的视角

通货膨胀管理是宏观经济的重要内容,通货膨胀、货币供给和经济增长之间互相影响、互相制约。本文利用中国2005年1月～2010年3月度数据构建模型分析,得出结论:(1)短期影响消费者物价指数的因素主要是国内生产总值增长率,长期控制消费者物价指数上涨的要素主要是货币的供给;(2)宏观经济形势稳定条件下通货膨胀、货币供给和经济增长之间具有长期协整关系;(3)消费者物价指数对自身的波动具有较强的累积效果,经济增长贡献了消费者物价指数波动的55%,而广义货币的这一比例仅为18%;(4)中国货币收入的真实需求弹性为1.152,这一数据远高于发达国家的水平。文章最后给出了相应的政策性建议。     

中国CPI权重调整问题探析

近年来,CPI权重调整问题备受各方关注。一方面,CPI的权重调整会影响对CPI的测度;另一方面,中国CPI调整的详细信息远非充分透明,不利于对CPI及相关经济变量的深度研究。鉴于此,本文从统计学和经济学两个角度阐述了CPI指数高层加总的原理和意义,并借助Divisia指数方法对CPI进行解构,找出了消费支出构成比与大类商品权重的契合点,剥离出消费支出构成变动的实时性与权重调整的滞后性这对矛盾导致的技术错位因素,对解构出来的因素进行再分析,为CPI权重调整工作提出了有针对性的建议。     

The relative size of exchange rate and interest rate responses to news: An empirical investigation

This paper examines the relative size of the effects of macroeconomic news on the spot exchange rate, and interest rate differentials (2- and 5-year swap rate differentials), and the synthetic forward exchange rate schedule, for the high-frequency New Zealand data. We find that the spot exchange rate and 5-year swap rates respond by a similar magnitude to monetary surprises, implying there is little response of the forward exchange rate to this type of news. In contrast, the spot exchange rate responds by nearly three times as much as 5-year interest rates to CPI and GDP surprises, implying that forward rates appreciate to higher than expected CPI or GDP news. This is in contrast to standard theoretical models and US evidence. Lastly, we show that exchange rates but not interest rates respond to current account news. The implications of these results for monetary policy are considered.     

A SURVEY OF MEASUREMENT BIASES IN PRICE INDEXES

Abstract. This paper reviews the literature on measurement error in the major US price indexes—the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (RPI), and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) deflators. We take as our point of departure Triplett's, 1975, survey and focus on the studies of measurement error that have appeared since then. We review the problems of substitution bias, quality bias, new goods bias, and outlet substitution bias that are generally considered to be the main sources of error in price indexes. The bulk of the paper is devoted to problems in the CPI and PPI, as the GDP deflators tend to be based mainly on the components of these series. We find that there has been surprisingly little work on the problem of overall measurement error in any of these price indexes, and we conclude that there is very little scientific basis for the commonly accepted notion that measured inflation at 2 to 3 percent a year is consistent with price stability.     

Estimation of the most influential science and technology factors for economic growth forecasting by soft computing technique

Economic growth may be developed on the basis on combination of different factors. In this investigation was analyzed the economic growth forecasting based on the different factors. The main goal was to analyze the influence of science and technology factors on the economic growth. Gross domestic product (GDP) was used as economic growth indicator. The method of adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was applied to the data in order to select the most influential factors for the GDP growth rate forecasting. Ten inputs are considered: research and development (R&D) expenditure in GDP, scientific and technical journal articles, patent applications for nonresidents, patent applications for residents, trademark applications for nonresidents, trademark applications for residents, total trademark applications, researchers in R&D, technicians in R&D and high-technology exports. The ANFIS process for variable selection was also implemented in order to detect the predominant factors affecting the forecasting of GDP growth rate.     

On the simultaneity problem in the aid and growth debate

This paper shows that foreign aid has a significant positive average effect on real per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth if, and only if, the quantitatively large negative reverse causal effect of per capita GDP growth on foreign aid is adjusted for in the growth regression. Instrumental variables estimates show that a 1 percentage point increase in GDP per capita growth decreased foreign aid by over 4%. Adjusting for this quantitatively large, negative reverse causal effect of economic growth on foreign aid shows that a 1% increase in foreign aid increased real per capita GDP growth by around 0.1 percentage points. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.