Value at Risk and Economic Growth

The improvement of data statistics as well as the econometrician methods have facilitated the introduction the new variables and factors I the economic growth analysis. In this sense, real variables have mainly been considered in the economic growth studies, but not financial or risk management aspects. In this sense, it is interesting to analyze the relationship between economic growth and value at risk and the feed-back process. The goal of the paper is to analyze the relationship between economic growth and risk management and the feed-back process. We will consider economic variables, including economic growth, rule of law, human capital, fiscal policy and monetary policy, among others, in our analysis. We will analyze the theoretical relationships between these variables and risk and the effects of risk on economic growth. We will also develop an empirical analysis considering the case of 15 European Union countries.

The Influence of Socioeconomic Factors on Economic Growth

The main goal of this paper is to analyse the relationship between social capital and economic growth taking into account the role of fiscal policy from theoretical and empirical points of view. To achieve this goal, “Human Capital and Public Capital Effects on Economic Growth” is focused on the effects of two traditional factors: human capital and public capital effects on economic growth. “Social Capital Effects on Economic Growth” considers qualitative variables introducing some socioeconomic effects on economic growth process analysis. In this case, social capital the main variable will be considered. “Empirical Analysis,” an empirical analysis is developed considering the case of European countries prior to the EU enlargement. Finally, in Conclusions,” the main conclusions will be resumed.      

The non-linear impact of high and growing government external debt on economic growth: A Markov Regime-switching approach

Today, the major reason for external debt is to finance high public deficits. This study aims to examine the relationship between external indebtedness and growth variables. In this context, Markov-switching model is used because it allows the examination of unobservable variables in an observable model and provides steady algorithm to achieve robust optimization by iterations in a dynamic system, and is more flexible than prior models. This paper concentrates on the analysis of Turkey and utilizes the data set for the period of 1974 to 2009. Throughout the analyses, the relationship between growth and external borrowing is examined in terms of public and private external borrowing. Paper yields that, according to results of multivariate dynamic Markov-switching model, the main growth variables such as investment and human capital have positive impact on growth as expected. Findings can be summarized as follows; firstly, public and/or private external borrowing has negative impact on growth both in regime at zero and regime at one. Secondly, the negative impact of public borrowing on economic growth and development is higher than that of private borrowing on economic growth and development. Eventually, the conclusion reveals that the economic development and borrowing variables do not follow a linear path.     

The growth effect of trade openness on African countries: Evidence from using an instrumental variable panel smooth transition model

This paper assesses the relationship between trade openness and economic growth in Africa by accounting for the heterogeneity of African countries. In addition, the paper contributes to the literature on trade openness and economic growth nexus by applying the instrumental variable panel smooth transition regression, a methodology that accounts for nonlinearity and endogeneity in the relationship between the two variables. The results of the empirical analysis reveal that the investment ratio is a channel through which trade openness affects economic growth in the African continent. In addition, the relationship between trade openness and economic growth varies according to the degree of a country's development in Africa. The study finds a negative relationship between openness and growth in low-income countries. Conversely, for upper-income countries, the coefficients of trade indicators are positive and statistically significant. The results indicate that African countries are not homogeneous, especially concerning trade openness and economic growth nexus.     

我国经济增长与环境质量关系的再检验

建立了经济增长与环境质量的关系理论模型,利用1985—2008年全国时间序列数据,通过相关分析、协整分析分别建立了工业三废与经济增长之间的回归模型,对经济增长与环境质量之间的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明:我国环境质量与经济增长之间并不存在EKC"倒U"关系;经济增长、产业结构、技术要素和污染治理都是影响环境质量的重要因素。     

碳排放与出口贸易和经济增长之间的关系研究——对山东省1984～2008年数据的计量分析

根据对数均值迪氏分解法计算出了山东省1984～2008年的碳排放量,然后实证分析了经济增长、出口贸易与碳排放之间的动态关系。结论显示:3个变量之间存在长期协整关系;出口贸易是山东省碳排放和经济增长的格兰杰因,而经济增长不是碳排放的原因。出口带动经济增长假说在山东省成立,山东省也是碳污染的天堂和转移排放的对象,但山东省的经济增长和环境关系符合环境库兹涅茨曲线高收入阶段的情况,环境质量随着收入的增加而得到改善。山东省可通过发展减排和贸易减排的方式实现经济的可持续发展和环境友好型社会的建设。     

国际油价波动对经济增长的影响——基于中国的实证分析

基于1990年1月至2009年3月的月度数据,本文实证分析了我国经济增长与国际石油价格之间的长期变动关系,其特点在于,采用稳健性较强的T-Y因果检验来分析油价与经济增长的Granger因果关系,同时,运用非对称协整技术以考察油价与经济增长之间的非线性关系。研究发现：①长期中油价是我国经济增长的单向Granger原因;②油价与我国经济增长之间存在非对称协整关系,油价上涨对经济活动的负面影响大于油价下跌的积极影响。基于中国经济运行的实际,本文还分析了实证结果背后的原因,并提出当前国际金融危机背景下,油价呈下跌趋势,需抓住有利时机,动用外汇储备,大力购入石油资源,建立起石油战略储备;在经济复苏、油价上涨时,可以启动石油战略储备来减少石油供应冲击,从而有助于及时保证我国经济平稳快速增长的政策建议。     

经济政策不确定性是否驱动制造业企业的“脱实向虚”*——基于中介效应及调节效应识别

当前，实体经济投资回报率低，制造业企业逐渐显现出“脱实向虚”的特征，主要表现为制造业企业金融化程度较为明显。本文使用2009—2019年中国A股制造业上市公司数据，研究了经济政策不确定性对制造业企业“脱实向虚”的影响。本文基于现金持有、实物期权和委托代理理论，进一步识别了两者关系的中介效应及调节效应，通过实证分析发现：（1）经济政策不确定性增加了制造业企业的“脱实向虚”程度；（2）融资约束对于经济政策不确定性和制造业企业“脱实向虚”之间的关系具有中介效应；（3）企业的股权集中度、客户集中度、银行监督程度均减弱了经济政策不确定性对制造业企业“脱实向虚”的正向影响。通过替换核心变量，本文在考虑所有制和规模异质性、政府补助的影响后，其主要结论仍然稳健。本文针对监管部门政策实施、流动性支持、资金流向监管等方面，提出了有针对性的建议。     

Does too much government spending depress the economic development of transition economies? Evidences from dynamic panel threshold analysis

This paper investigates the relationship between government size and economic growth and determines the optimal level of government spending to maximize economic growth. The paper applies a dynamic panel data analysis based upon a threshold model to test the threshold effect of government spending in 26 transition economies over the period spanning 1993–2016. According to the analysis results, government expenditures have a threshold effect on economic growth, and there is a non-linear relationship depicted as an Armey curve in these transition economies. The findings indicate that a government size above the threshold government spending level adversely affects economic growth, while a government size below the threshold level has a positive effect. Furthermore, there is a statistically significant relationship between the two variables above and below that optimal level, even if we divide the sample into developed and developing countries. Our findings suggest that governments in transition economies should consider optimal government size at around the estimated threshold level to support sustainable economic growth.     

Heterogeneous technology and panel data: The case of the agricultural production function

Economic growth involves reallocating resources from traditional to new techniques of production, creating new relationships between particular resources and productivity. The paper analyzes the implications of this process on the estimation of agricultural production functions using a panel of countries. The data includes a measure of capital in agriculture absent from most studies. We employ a heterogeneous technology framework where implemented technology is chosen jointly with inputs to interpret information obtained in the empirical analysis of panel data. In this framework, estimates depend upon the economic environment, which is represented by state variables. It turns out that the old problem of identifying the production function cannot be resolved through the use of instrumental variables, but can be resolved using the allocation error. The paper discusses the scope for replacing country and time effects by observed state variables. The empirical results differ from those reported in the literature for cross-country studies, largely in augmenting the elasticities of capital and land and reducing those of fertilizer and labor. The evaluation of the marginal value productivity accounts for the flow of capital and fertilizer to agriculture and the flow of labor to other sectors, thereby contributing to overall economic growth.     

资金转移、关联交易与盈余管理——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

本文采用沪深两市1999～2006年上市公司的数据,用逻辑回归以及结构方程三阶段回归方法,对超额现金流、关联交易和盈余管理三者之间的关系进行了实证检验。结果表明,现金是大股东通过关联交易对上市公司进行资源转移的标的之一,并且在上市公司超额现金较低时,关联交易对上市公司的掏空行为转为以担保和抵押为主,从而实现了不同类别关联交易行为对上市公司进行资金掏空的相互替代。为了掩饰关联交易掏空的负面影响,上市公司有进行向上盈余管理的行为。当以资金流入型的关联交易对本文结论进一步检验时,没有发现关联交易在资金支持上的证据,同时,资金流入型的关联交易对盈余管理的影响亦不明显,因此,正反两方面证据支持了本文结论。     

自由现金流量和债务控制假说检验--来自中国上市公司审计费用的经验证据

本研究在控制相关变量下,采用oLs经验检查自由现金流量和审计费用之问的关系,从审计费用视角检验自由现金流量假说和债务控制假说。本研究提供的经验证据表明：（1）自由现金流量和审计费用显著正相关．验证了自由现金流量假说。（2）债务控制效应在中国没有发挥应有的作用,我们从中国的制度角度对这一现象进行了解释;（3）行业特征、公司规模、公司业务复杂性、资产流动性是影响审计费用的重要因素。（4）速动比率和盈利能力对审计费用的影响不显著。     

Does corruption impede economic growth in Pakistan?

The present study reinvestigates the impact of corruption on economic growth by incorporating financial development and trade openness in growth model in case of Pakistan. We have used time series data over the period of 1987–2009. We have applied structural break unit root test to test the integrating order of the variables. The structural break cointegration has also been applied to examine the long run relationship between the variables.The long run relationship between the variables is validated in case of Pakistan. We find that corruption impedes economic growth. Financial development adds in economic growth. Trade openness stimulates economic growth. The causality analysis has exposed the feedback effect between corruption and economic growth and same inference is drawn for trade openness and corruption. Trade openness and economic growth are interdependent. Financial development Granger causes economic growth implying supply-side hypothesis in case of Pakistan.     

Modelling the nonlinear relationship between CO2 emissions from oil and economic growth

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from oil and GDP, using panel data from 1971 to 2007 of 98 countries. Previous studies have discussed the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis, but little attention has been paid to the existence of a nonlinear relationship between these two variables. We argue that there exists a threshold effect between the two variables: different levels of economic growth bear different impacts on oil CO2 emissions. Our empirical results do not support the EKC hypothesis. Additionally, the results of short-term analyses of static and dynamic panel threshold estimations suggest the efficacy of a double-threshold (three-regime) model. In the low economic growth regime, economic growth negatively affects oil CO2 emissions growth; in the medium economic growth regime, however, economic growth positively impacts oil CO2 emissions growth; and in the high economic growth regime, the impact of economic growth is insignificant.     

高管报酬和公司业绩关系的实证研究

高管报酬和公司业绩之间的关系一直是研究的热点问题,不同的学者采用了不同的公司业绩评价指标进行研究,因而所得的结论也不尽相同。本文使用因子分析的方法对以往研究所使用的公司业绩指标进行了分析,并引入了和公司增加值相关的指标(EVA、MVA、FGV),最终从这些指标中提取出三个因子,分别从传统指标、增加值指标和现金流指标的角度反映原有变量的特征。     

皖江城市文化资本财政投入对经济增长的影响——基于面板数据实证研究

皖江城市是国家级承接产业转移示范区,产业承接涉及到方方面面,文化通过文化资本在产业承接中发挥重要作用,促进经济增长。文章构建了文化资本的经济增长模型,并在面板数据分析过程中对模型选择和变量间协整关系进行检验,在此基础上建立带有回归的个体固定效应模型。实证分析结果表明两种文化资本财政投入对经济增长贡献率较高并且相当。进而对皖江城市文化资本投资提出一些建议。     

EXPORTS,EXPORT COMPOSITION AND GROWTH: A SIMULTANEOUS ERROR-CORRECTION MODEL FOR TUNISIA

The export-economic growth relationship has been dealt with in several empirical studies concerning cross-section and time series data. Although this research has contributed to measure the impact of exports on economic growth, it still has three main drawbacks. First, the studies on cross-section data suppose homogeneous production techniques for the countries involved. Second, most of the research introduces a bias in the estimation of the export impact on economic growth since it neglects all effects of simultaneity between these two variables. Finally, most of the estimated regressions in these studies may constitute ‘spurious‘ regressions since the analysis of the stationarity of the variables is missing. This paper considers the Tunisian case and tries to study the dynamics between growth and exports through a simultaneous error correction model. The study shows the presence of a positive and significant relationship between exports and economic growth driven by manufactured exports rather than food-processing exports and international tourism. The measurement of such a relationship is understated if the simultaneity between export expansion and G.D.P growth is ignored. [C 32, C 51, C 52, F 43]     

基于证券投资的资本流动与经济增长：理论与实证

资本流动的经济效应是金融自由化进程中争论的焦点之一。本文概述了资本流动与经济增长关系的最新研究进展。在国际收支框架内，利用证券投资项下的资本流动的1991—2007年的季度时间序列数据，发现我国证券投资项下资本流动与经济增长具有较高相关关系和双向因果关系。采用四种不同的资本流动口径对人均GDP进行协整分析，结果表明，证券投资项下的资本流量与长期经济增长呈显著正相关，并提出了相应的政策建议。     

ALTERNATIVE BID VARIABLES AS INSTRUMENTS OF OCS LEASING POLICY

Prior to 1979, a cash bonus was used almost exclusively as the bid variable at outer continental shelf (OCS) lease auctions. Criticisms of the cash bonus as a bid variable led to the OCS Lands Act Amendments of 1978 which stipulated that alternative bid variables be employed on a portion of the leases issued over a five-year trial period. The alternative bid variables include net profit share, royalty rate, and work commitment
Each of these bid variables is analyzed to determine the extent to which it (a) promotes economic efficiency, (b) returns fair market value to the government, (c) identifies and selects the most efficient firm to operate the lease, (d) promotes optimal risk sharing between the lessee and the government, and (e) minimizes administrative costs
This analysis has led the authors to conclude that while no bid variable is perfect, the traditional cash bonus is preferred     

Do Financial and Institutional Variables Enhance the Impact of Remittances on Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean? A Panel Cointegration Analysis

Using recently developed panel unit root and panel cointegration tests and the Fully-Modified OLS methodology (FMOLS), this paper estimates the impact of remittances on the economic growth of selected upper and lower income Latin American & Caribbean (LAC) countries over the 1990–2007 period. Despite the large flow of remittances to the region, there have been relatively few empirical studies assessing the impact of remittances on economic growth in LAC. Panel unit root tests suggest that several of the macro variables included in the model exhibit unit roots, yet, at the same time, Pedroni’s panel cointegration test determined that there is a cointegrating relationship among the variables in the estimated model. The FMOLS estimates suggest that remittances have a positive and significant effect on economic growth in both groups of countries. The estimates also indicate that both the degree of economic freedom and credit provided by the banking system have a positive and significant effect on economic growth in upper (middle) income LAC countries. The sign of the interaction term between remittances and the credit (and EFI) variables suggest that remittances act as substitutes for these variables. Finally, the effect of remittances on both sets of countries is stronger in the presence of a financial (credit) variable.