金融摩擦、收入风险与财富不平等

本文通过构建带有职业选择的两部门异质模型,探讨了个体面临的金融摩擦和收入风险对财富分配的作用机制。结果发现,经济中存在的金融摩擦会通过职业选择、自我保险和自融资来影响个人的财富积累,从而导致财富的集中和不平等。对模型模拟的结果表明:降低金融摩擦在总体上会降低财富不平等程度,但对不同财富阶层的影响不同,其在大幅减少前1%和前10%阶层财富份额的同时,虽然也会在一定程度上提升后50%阶层的财富份额,但提升幅度并不大,过高或过低的企业家收入风险,都会加大财富不平等程度,因而存在一个使经济中财富不平等程度最低的适度企业家收入风险水平;虽然金融摩擦和收入风险都会影响经济中的财富不平等,但收入风险本身对财富不平等程度的影响较小,其主要是通过金融摩擦放大了经济中财富不平等的程度。     

美国高收入阶层收入变动与股市关系的实证分析

美国收入分配自1980年代出现了加剧不平等的趋势,塞斯等人利用税收资料建立一个长期的高收入阶层的收入份额时间序列,利用其数据建立计量模型考察收入变动与股市指数的关系,发现股市是造成收入份额增长的一个因素,两者存在一定的正相关关系。同时,通过对不同收入组别与股指的相关系数的比较,发现收入阶层越高,其受股市影响程度越大,这也验证了收入越高其在股市中的投资比重越大,其收入增长来源越多地依赖于股市。通过时变参数模型度量了股指对收入份额的弹性系数的动态过程,发现自1981年开始弹性系数略有上升,其原因可能与税率下降及投资热情有关。     

金融改革对收入不平等的影响研究——理论解释与实证分析

采集55个新兴市场国家的非平衡面板数据,使用动态门限面板模型实证结果表明,金融改革与收入不平等间存在明显的门限效应,当金融改革水平低于门限值时,金融改革会扩大收入差距;当金融改革水平越过门限值时,金融改革有利于收入差距的缩小.多数新兴市场国家金融改革对降低收入不平等已经发挥正向效应,为缩小新兴市场国家收入差距,必须进一步深化金融改革.     

Heterogeneous Background Risks and Portfolio Choice: Evidence from Micro‐level Data

We construct a set of household‐level background risk variables to capture the covariance structure of three nonfinancial assets and two financial assets. These risks are in general statistically significant and economically important for a household's stock market participation and stockholdings. A one‐standard‐deviation increase in background risks reduces the participation probability by 11% and the stockholdings‐to‐wealth ratio by 4%. The volatilities of labor income, housing value, and business income reduce a household's participation and stockholdings. A household with labor income highly correlated with stock (bond) returns is less (more) likely to invest in stock.     

剩余收益模型与股票未来回报

本文采用Hou et al.(2012)公司基本面盈余预测模型并结合剩余收益模型对上市公司的内在价值进行估计,并分析内在价值与市价比率(V/P)与股票未来回报之间的关系。我们发现基于V/P分组的投资组合,在未来一至三年规模调整的持有超额回报套利分别达到15.2%、37.9%和55.9%;在控制了市账比等因素以后,V/P对股票未来回报仍然具有显著的预测作用。本文的研究克服了以往文献中运用证券分析师盈余预测进行剩余收益模型估值的内在局限,并提供了我国资本市场背景下切实可行的基于剩余收益模型估值的投资组合策略。     

A Study on the Effect of Financial Inclusion on the Relationship Between Income Inequality and Economic Growth

In this article, we attempt to estimate whether financial inclusion, expressed as financial accessibility, has a positive effect on reducing income inequality. Furthermore, we estimate the effect of such financial inclusion on economic growth by reducing income inequality. From the results of our empirical analysis, we can draw the following three conclusions. First, income inequality has a very negative effect on GDP growth. The negative relationship between income inequality and GDP growth is strong in low-income countries. In addition, income inequality has a stronger effect on reducing economic growth in high-fragility countries. Second, progressivity is not a major factor in reducing income inequality in low-income countries or in high-fragility countries. Finally, financial inclusion improves the relationship between income inequality and economic growth. The reduction in income inequality through financial inclusion changes the negative relationship between income inequality and economic growth into a positive relationship. This trend is stronger in high-fragility countries than in low-fragility countries.     

A closer look at financial development and income distribution

This paper analyzes the under-investigated relationship uniting financial development and income distribution. We use a novel approach taking into account for the first time the specific channels linking banks, capital markets and income inequality, the time-varying nature of the relationship, and reciprocal causality. We construct a set of annual indicators of banking and capital market size, robustness, efficiency and international integration. We then estimate the determinants of income distribution using a panel Bayesian structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, for a set of 49 countries over the 1994-2002 period. We uncover a significant causality running from financial sector development to income distribution. In addition, the banking sector seems to exert a stronger impact on inequality. Finally, the relationship appears to depend on the characteristics of the financial sector, rather than on its size.     

东亚国家金融结构与经济增长的实证研究

文章首先通过构造衡量金融结构的不同指标,运用金融结构与经济增长的动态面板数据模型,并用广义矩估计法进行估计,得出了在人均GDP高的国家,股票市场比重也高的结论;为验证其显著性,文章把东亚国家分成银行主导型和市场主导型两组分别回归,结论是股票市场比重的提高与人均GDP有显著的关系, 因此, 东亚国家应积极发展股票市场,提高银行体系和股票市场的效率。     

美国个人股票持有结构分析

二战后,美国个人的金融资产结构发生了显著变化,直接持有股票的比重降低而机构性资产的份额大幅度上升。从微观家户层面角度,美国家庭的直接股票持有与家庭收入呈明显的正向关系,低收入家庭群体直接持股比例低,而收入越高的家庭群体直接持股的比例也越高。基于美联储的消费者金融调查数据,我们从户主年龄、户主受教育程度、户主就业状况以及住房状况等方面详细分析了美国的家庭收入分布状况与直接持有股票状况,也印证了上述结论。借鉴美国的发展经验,笔者对我国个人金融资产结构的改善提出若干建议。     

我国证券市场税收政策浅析

我国现行以证券交易印花税为主体的证券税制,在组织财政收入、调节证券市场、抑制过度投机等方面发挥了一定作用,但还存在一些不足之处。建议:进一步调整证券交易印花税的征收办法;建立一套系统、健全的证券税制;消除对公司和股东个人股、红利的重复征税;统一上市公司的企业所得税政策。     

Value Relevance of Comprehensive Income for the Canadian Market*

The value relevance of comprehensive income (CI) compared to net income (NI) remains unresolved. We look at this issue in the Canadian market, using association methods to determine the value relevance of reporting CI and other comprehensive income (OCI) components for stock prices and returns. The sample consists of all the firms in the S&P/TSX Composite Index that prepared their financial statements according to Canadian standards or International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) over the 2008–2016 period. Although we find no evidence that CI is more value relevant than NI for stock prices and returns, we note that some OCI components are incrementally value relevant beyond NI for both amounts. In addition, financial services firms differ from other companies in terms of the relationships between some of their OCI components and prices or returns, with such firms even driving some relationships. Relationships between OCI components and prices or returns are also affected when data from the financial crisis period are excluded, with some relationships even changing after IFRS adoption. These results inform Canadian standard setters and financial statement users that OCI components are decision useful for the Canadian market.     

Stock returns and income inequality: Asymmetric evidence from state level data in the U.S.

We assess the impact of stock returns on income inequality in the U.S. using linear and nonlinear models. When we use income inequality data from the U.S. as a whole, we only find un-equalizing effects of stock returns in the short run. However, when we estimate the models for each state individually, the linear model yields significant short-run effects in 38 states that last into the long run in 17 states. The numbers increase to 42 and 24, respectively, when we estimate the nonlinear model. In the most affected states, we find that positive stock returns have un-equalizing effects on income inequality and negative returns have equalizing effects.     

发达国家金融结构演变的新趋势及其借鉴意义

本文使用全部私人市场资本化总量与全部私人信贷总量之比和股票市场资本化总量与存款货币银行信贷总量之比两大指标,来描述发达国家的金融结构;用金融发展总水平这一指标来描述发达国家金融发展的水平。无论从对23个样本国家时间序列数据的分析还是从结合金融发展的分析来看,发达国家金融结构演变都显示出了股票市场主导的金融市场融资比重增加和银行主导的金融中介融资比重下降的趋势。其中,少数发达国家出现了由中介为主体到由市场为主体逆转的趋势,和／或者出现了由银行为主导到由股票市场为主导逆转的趋势。作者还提出了这一新趋势对我国金融结构转变的借鉴意义。     

The risk of financial crises: Is there a role for income inequality?

Could macroeconomic factors such as income inequality be the real root cause of financial crises? We explore a broad variety of financial and macroeconomic variables and employ a general-to-specific model selection process to find the most reliable predictors of financial crises in developed countries over a period of more than 100 years. Our in-sample results indicate that income inequality has predictive power beyond loan growth and several other financial variables. Out-of-sample forecasts for individual predictors show that their predictive power tends to vary considerably over time, but income inequality has predictive power in each forecasting period.     

人口结构转变与金融市场发展

文章分析了人口结构变动、居民财富增长和金融市场发展间的关系,通过实证研究,文章认为,在中国人口老龄化这一结构变动趋势下,未来股票市场可能面临下行压力,而固定收益类产品,尤其是债券市场将迎来发展机遇,但长期利率可能面临下行压力。     

Capital account liberalization and income inequality

This article makes both a theoretical and an empirical contribution to the literature on financial liberalization and income inequality. In the first part, we develop a tractable model that features agents with varying investment abilities and a banking sector. There are two possible interventions to liberalize the banking sector: first, a reduction in reserve requirements, and, second, an increase in the amount of foreign funds that can be used to finance domestic loans. Financial liberalization leads to enhanced banking sector efficiency and adjustments in interest rates affecting income of investors and savers, and, therefore, income inequality. Theoretically, the impact of financial liberalization on income inequality is ambiguous. Yet, the model suggests that financial liberalization will improve income distribution in countries where financial depth is high. Our empirical estimates confirm this conditional effect. More precisely, the estimates suggest that capital account liberalization only tends to lower income inequality if the level of financial depth, as measured by private credit over GDP, exceeds 25 percent.     

Inequality,stock market participation,and the equity premium

The last 30 years saw substantial increases in wealth inequality and stock market participation, smaller increases in consumption inequality and the fraction of indebted households, a decline in interest rates and the expected equity premium, as well as a prolonged stock market boom. In an incomplete markets, overlapping generations model I jointly explain these trends by the observed rise in wage inequality, decrease in participation costs, and loosening of borrowing constraints. After accounting for these changes, I show that the stock market played a major role in increasing wealth inequality. Crucially, these phenomena must be considered jointly; studying one independently leads to counterfactual predictions about others.     

Does Financial Openness Matter in the Relationship Between Financial Development and Income Distribution in Latin America?

This article examines the effect of financial development on income distribution by analyzing a sample of Latin American countries according to their degree of financial openness for the 1990–2011 period. The period includes the time before and after financial liberalization for most of the countries in the region. As the literature provides inconclusive results regarding the relationship between financial development and income inequality, we aim to determine whether financial openness plays a role in this relationship. Our results provide an explanation for why some countries regardless of their degree of financial openness cannot achieve a reduction in income inequality.     

中国股市羊群效应的区制转移时变性研究

传统研究采用静态CCK模型检验股票市场的羊群效应,但无法描述羊群行为的动态变化以及市场可能受到的外部影响。本文基于中国股市日频交易数据,在静态CCK模型中引入参数的区制转移性质识别股市在不同状态间的转换,并分析中国股市羊群效应和交叉羊群效应的时变特征。研究表明,中国股市运行周期可被划分为两个区制,分别呈现低波动和高波动的行情特征;羊群效应的程度随区制转移而变化,具有区制依存性。其中,沪深股市在高(低)波动区制中,羊群效应更强(弱),相应区制持续时间较短(长);中国台湾股市仅在高波动区制中出现羊群效应,相应区制持续时间较短;中国香港股市无论在低波动区制或是高波动区制中,均不存在羊群效应。此外,沪深A股在低波动区制中对美国股市和中国香港股市存在交叉羊群效应。     

全球股票市场间风险传染的测度、监管及预警

近年来,伴随金融一体化程度的加深,全球各股票市场间风险传染的动态复杂性加剧,其准确测度、高效监管及实时预警已成为优先事项。本研究选取全球21个代表性股票市场作为分析样本,首先基于广义向量自回归模型的滚动估计准确测度其间风险动态传染的高维网络序列,进一步借由矩阵值因子模型来稳健收缩上述序列,以探究其潜在动态核心结构,从而实现高效监管。最后,通过向量自回归模型的预测功能实现对全球股票市场间风险传染的实时预警。研究表明,全球股票市场间风险传染具有时变性,其监管与预警可通过少数与地理区域高度相关的风险区域间的动态传染关系及内部的市场构成来刻画。与此同时,我们发现中国内地等新兴市场的重要地位逐渐凸显。本文研究结论可为有效防范与化解金融风险提供有益参考。