城市住房价格空间差异研究——以南京市为例

城市内部各个区域会因不同的影响因素住房价格出现差异,而一般性研究中的住房平均价格往往会掩盖城市住房的真实价格。文章以南京市为例,在研究城市住房价格空间差异现象的基础上,对住房建设规划在空间布局引导住房价格作用方面进行了探讨。     

税收政策应该如何调控住房市场——住房问题笔谈之四

在中国,与住房直接相关的税收,严格意义上只有契税和房产税.虽然社会各界认为住房方面的税收多,但多数税种并非只针对住房.尽管与住房相关的大部分税种并不直接针对住房,但在房地产市场调控和治理住房价格过快上涨中,为服从调控目标,对这些税种的税率和征收范围调整以及松紧尺度,都作为一个重要的工具被运用,但只集中于住房的流转环节.住房税收政策的不完善,是住房价格飞涨、住房投资投机盛行的一个重要因素.     

关于房地产宏观调控的思考

一、房地产宏观调控对象的特殊性作为房地产宏观调控对象的住房既是生活必需品,也是一种投资品。当住房是生活必需品时,与一般商品相同,住房价格与其需求量之间存在反向变动的关系,即住房价格提高.     

低收入群体的住房保障与信贷支持——基于住房过滤理论的分析

近年来,我国城市住房价格持续上升.保障低收入群体的基本居住权已成为城市建设和房地产业发展所面临的重大问题.目前,各部门和各地区针对住房保障问题,从供给和需求两方面制定了诸多的保障政策.但对于市场化条件下住房保障体系的内在运行机理研究则较为滞后.而国外的相关研究表明,住房过滤模型理论可以从微观角度时住房市场的结构性问题进行定量分析,并对住房价格进行生命周期全过程分析,较真实地反映住房市场特别是住房保障体系的运行机理.因此本文尝试从住房过滤模型的角度分析国内住房保障政策与住房信贷政策的实施效果,并结合该模型的适用条件与面临的现实障碍,探索住房保障措施及住房信贷制度的优化途径.     

尴尬的北京二手房

“国六条”和“九部委《关于调整住房供应结构稳定住房价格的意见》”,对营业税的征收期限作了新的调整,从2年期限延长到5年。营业税的征收期限上调,政府目的一是为了抑制房地产的过热需求;二是希望通过抑制二手商品房的交易量,起到稳定房地产价格的目的。     

城区特征与商业银行住房抵押贷款决策

城区特征是商业银行住房抵押贷款决策的一个重要因素，它包括：1．人口特征，包括中位家庭收入、离婚率、失业率、年龄结构和受教育水平等；2．住房存量特征，包括住房价格波动率、住房交易规模、土地供给弹性、住房所有权比率、住房空置率、中位住房租金价格比、中位住房建筑周期和中位住房年龄等；3．公共服务特征，包括接受公共住房支持的家庭比例、学校质量、治安状况和拆迁改造等；     

鼓励和保护真实消费

近五个月，国家和本市出台的今年宏观调控房地产市场的政策措施已经基本明朗，土地供应、金融控贷、市场管理等一系列政策措施的效应开始显现于房地产市场。目前上海房地产市场呈现的“三增三落”(房地产投资量继续增长、商品住房供应量继续增长、市场交易量继续增长；商品住房价格涨幅明显回落、     

住房需求的三类分解及其调控思路

一、住房功能的讨论不足以解决实际问题本世纪第一个10年，尤其是后5年，关于住房功能的讨论兴起一轮热潮。其背景是，商品住房价格迅速高企。引致商品住房价格迅速高企的重要原因之一，是对于住房投机交易危害的认识不足和管理上的宽松或纵容。部分学者质疑这种情况，从理论上提出住房的功能应为居住，不赞成投资的功能。但部分学者看法不同，     

住房价格指数以及区位对住房价格的影响——北京市住房价格实证分析

根据北京市的1308个新建住宅项目数据,建立了Hedonic模型,着重分析了时间、距离、环线以及行政区等变量对住房价格的影响,构建了北京市住房Hedonic价格指数和住房价格的梯度曲线.     

国家计委 建设部 关于印发经济适用住房价格管理办法的通知

各省、自治区、直辖市计委、物价局、建设厅（局）：为规范经济适用住房价格管理，促进经济适用住房健康发展，根据《中华人民共和国价格法》和国务院关于经济适用住房建设的相关规定，我们制定了《经济适用住房价格管理办法》，现印发给你们，请按照执行。附：经济适用住房价格管理办法附件：经济适用住房价格管理办法第一条为规范经济适用住房价格管理，促进经济适用住房健康发展，根据《中华人民共和国价格法》和国务院关于经济适用住房建设的规定，制定本办法。第二条本办法适用于在城市规划区内经济适用住房的价格管理。第三条本办法所…     

House prices and consumer welfare

We develop a new approach to measuring changes in consumer welfare due to changes in the price of owner-occupied housing. In our approach, an agent's welfare adjustment is defined as the transfer required to keep expected discounted utility constant given a change in current house prices. We demonstrate that, up to a first-order approximation, there is no aggregate change in welfare due to price increases in the existing housing stock. This follows from a simple market clearing condition where capital gains experienced by sellers are exactly offset by welfare losses to buyers. We show that this result holds (approximately) even in a model that accounts for changes in consumption and investment plans prompted by current house price changes. There can, however, be changes in welfare due to additions to the stock of housing, or to changes in the price of renovating and upgrading the existing stock of housing. For the United States, we estimate the welfare cost of house price appreciation to be an average of $127 per household per year over the 1984–1998 period.     

基于DFSR模型房地产税收政策对房价影响研究——以上海市为例

以上海市为研究区域,构建包含驱动力、状态、响应指标的DFSR模型来分析房地产税收政策对房价响应的评价体系,其中利用主成份分析法确定驱动力指标综合得分,再根据量化的各项指标,明确房地产税收政策在房价影响中的地位。研究结果表明,房地产税收政策的调整呈明显的周期性变化,在政策调控力度强的情况下,政策对房价的影响是非常明显的。同时房地产税收政策调控具有时滞性,政策的调控力度与房价的变化并不完全同步。最后提出相应的改革措施,为优化房地产税收政策提供建议与参考。     

The determinants of homebuilder stock price exposure to lumber: Production cost versus housing demand

We study the economic linkage between homebuilder stock market performance and commodity futures market information on a major component of building materials—lumber. The price of lumber plays a dual role in determining homebuilder profits: it represents a production input cost and serves as a future housing demand indicator. Using all US publicly listed homebuilder stocks, we show that the housing demand effect dominates the builder–lumber relationship. This effect is robust even after we control for the Federal Housing Finance Association (FHFA) housing price index (HPI). Our results further indicate that the slope of the lumber futures curve serves as a cross-market signal of future housing demand and thus of homebuilder stock market performance.     

Testing the efficiency of the Norwegian housing market

The question of whether or not the housing market is efficient is posed by an increasing number of economists, policymakers, homebuyers, and homesellers. This article tests the efficiency hypothesis on data from the housing market in Oslo over the period 1991–2002, employing the Case–Shiller time-structure test on a repeat-sales house price index and returns to housing. We demonstrate that both the repeat-sales house price index and returns contain time structure and that the housing market is characterized by inefficiencies. We also find, surprisingly, that the housing market consistently yields higher appreciation at lower volatility than the stock market over the period.     

The lag structure of option price

The price of common stock warrants do not adjust immediately to changes in common stock prices. This lag is inconsistent with the ‘efficient market’ hypothesis. Based on daily closing prices this lag was measured and found to be a combination of the adjustment to stock price and to the adjustment of ‘other’ variables, i.e., positive serially correlated disturbance terms. A single equation model simultaneously estimating the parameters of the serial correlation and the coefficients of the lagged stock price indicate a substantial deviation from efficiency. Various simple strategies designed to exploit this lag are then tested.     

我国新建住宅长期供给价格弹性估算——基于35个大中城市的实证研究

大多数住宅模型和政策分析,都直接或间接依赖于住宅供给价格弹性的估计值：为了应对市场需求冲击,是多供给住房还是提高住宅价格？基于Mayo（1981）构建的模型,估算了我国35个主要大中型城市的新建住宅供给价格弹性。根据流量模型,2000-2007年我国的新建住宅价格弹性系数在4-11之间,2008到2013年的价格弹性在5-13之间。而存量调整模型得到了截然不同的估算结果：2008-2013年我国的新建住宅供给价格弹性在1-6之间,更精确的估算出了我国新建住宅供给市场的价格弹性。     

The price responsiveness of housing supply in OECD countries

The responsiveness of housing supply to changes in prices bears important implications for the evolution of housing prices and the speed of adjustment of housing markets. Based on a stock-flow model of the housing market estimated within an error correction framework, this paper estimates the long-run price elasticity of new housing supply in 21 OECD countries. Estimates suggest that the responsiveness of housing supply to price changes varies substantially across countries. It is relatively more flexible in North America and some Nordic countries, while it is more rigid in continental European countries and in the United Kingdom. The responsiveness of housing supply depends not only on national geographical and urban characteristics but also on policies, such as land use and planning regulations.     

Risk shocks and housing supply: A quantitative analysis

This paper analyzes the role of stochastic uncertainty in a multi-sector housing model with financial frictions. We include time varying uncertainty (i.e. risk shocks) in the technology shocks that affect housing production and provide estimates of the time-series properties of risk shocks by using firm level productivity data. The analysis demonstrates that risk shocks to the housing production sector are a quantitatively important impulse mechanism for understanding housing price movements. Specifically, the model can match the volatility of housing prices observed in the data. It is also demonstrated that adjustment costs are important in replicating the contemporaneous correlation of housing prices with GDP and residential investment. Critically, bankruptcy costs act as an endogenous markup factor in housing prices and are an important determinant of house price volatility. However, in comparison to housing demand shocks, risk shocks have low explanatory power for real quantities.     

The effects of uncertainty on investment and the expected long-run capital stock

This paper examines the effects of output price uncertainty on the optimal investment behavior of a risk-neutral competitive firm with a constant returns to scale production function. In the presence of convex costs of adjustment, investment is an increasing function of q, the shadow price of capital. Given the current price of output, we find that increased uncertainty will raise the current rate of investment. Increased uncertainty will also increase the expected long-run capital stock if the price of output is serially uncorrelated. However, if the price of output is serially correlated, then the direction of the effect of increased uncertainty on the expected long-run capital stock depends on the curvature of the marginal adjustment cost function. In this case, we obtain results which are directly opposite of the results in the literature and we locate the flaw in the existing analysis.     

股票交易印花税对股票价格影响研究——以上海股市为例

本文利用Umlauf(1993)方法和事件研究法研究了我国三次印花税调整对上海股票市场价格水平的影响,证明了印花税下调会使股价水平上升、印花税上调会使股价水平下跌这一理论假说,并且就我国股市价格水平对印花税调整所表现出来的反应模式,提出了印花税作为财政政策工具在运用时的一些指导原则。