浙江省FDI对外贸易效应的国别差异研究——基于贸易引力模型的实证分析

本文基于浙江省1995-2008年的相关面板数据,采用贸易引力模型,实证分析了10个主要投资国对浙江省的直接投资与双边贸易的关系。实证结果表明,FDI促进了浙江省对外贸易的发展,它对贸易的贡献度为0.084;各投资国的投资对双边贸易的影响存在显著的国别差异,环太平洋地区的国家或地区的投资属于贸易创造型投资,其中以美国的投资贸易促进效应最为显著,它的边际贸易倾向为0.277;英国、法国两欧洲国家的投资属于贸易替代型投资,但意大利的投资促进了双边贸易的发展。     

中国向非洲直接投资的贸易效应实证研究--基于2003-2011年面板数据

基于2003—2011年的面板数据,运用引力模型实证分析中国对非洲39个国家直接投资对中非双边贸易的影响,结果表明：中国对非洲直接投资对中非双边贸易具有显著的促进效应,东道国GDP的规模对中非进出口贸易有正向促进作用,国家间的地理距离对双边贸易不形成阻碍,但双边投资协定对进出口贸易的影响程度不一。     

最优一篮子货币选择问题研究

本文基于实证分析结果中对人民币影响显著的六种货币,设计了由六种货币组成的人民币货币篮子,分别考虑了三种不同权重结构:由双边贸易比重和双边贸易的汇率弹性决定的货币篮子,由双边贸易比重和贸易中使用的计价货币结构决定的货币篮子,以及中国对外直接投资和吸收外国直接投资的目的地与来源国结构决定的货币篮子,并发现由双边贸易比重和贸易中计价货币结构决定的货币篮子价值波动最小.     

浅析外国直接投资对我国外贸收益的影响

国际直接投资是一国融八全球化的主要渠道之一,也是企业国际化经营的一种重要模式.从理论角度来看,国际直接投资的贸易效应主要有替代效应和互补效应,即国际直接投资可能减少(替代)贸易,也可能增加(互补)贸易.扩大出口,促进贸易增长,是我国吸引外国直接投资的主要政策目标之一.本文分析了外国直接投资对我国外贸收益的影响效应,并提出相应的政策建议.     

外国直接投资与我国进出口贸易的关系——基于不同贸易方式的实证分析

本文运用协整方法和误差修正模型,根据我国1981-2004年的统计数据,考察了我国吸收的外国直接投资对不同贸易方式下的对外贸易产生的不同影响。结果表明:从长期看,外国直接投资与加工贸易进出口之间存在长期均衡关系,而与一般贸易进出口之间不存在长期均衡关系;从短期看,外国直接投资对加工贸易进出口都具有促进作用,而一般贸易进出口对外国直接投资的变动反应不敏感。     

我国FDI与进出口贸易是否相互促进——以1995到2015年相关数据为基础

利用中国统计局网站公布的自1995年到2015年实际使用外商直接投资总额、进口贸易总额和出口贸易总额,通过计量方法进行回归分析,对外国直接投资对我国进出口贸易规模的影响进行实证研究。结果表明:FDI对我国进出口贸易在一定程度上具有明显的促进作用,带动我国外贸规模的不断扩大与深入发展,同时,进出口商品的贸易还与上期的进出口贸易存在一定的相关关系。此外,进出口贸易也对外国直接投资的流入呈现出显著的促进作用,其作用较外国直接投资流入对进出口贸易的影响更加明显。     

美国、日本与两岸的经贸关系对两岸贸易发展的影响研究

本文在经济全球化背景下,分别考察美国、日本与两岸之间的贸易、投资关系对两岸贸易发展的影响。计量结果表明,美国通过贸易途径,即美国增加与台湾地区的出口贸易可以促进两岸贸易的发展;而美国对祖国大陆的直接投资和双边贸易对两岸贸易的影响则不显著。日本则通过投资途径,即日本对大陆的直接投资增加会减缓两岸贸易的发展;同时,两岸贸易还反向影响日本对台湾地区的直接投资以及出口贸易。本文还从理论和实践上对其进行了解释。     

外国直接投资的国际贸易效应:基于我国行业数据的分析

本文在Rybczynski定理的基础上考察了外国直接投资与国际贸易之间替代和互补的关系。在理论分析部分,建立了一个简化的要素特定模型,分析了特定部门初始贸易状态与部门产出以及外国直接投资的关系。在实证分析部分,用我国各行业外国直接投资和贸易的数据对其进行了检验,结果发现外国直接投资对我国各行业贸易的影响都很显著,但是具体的替代和互补关系却因时期不同而不同。     

FDI的利润汇出、出口创汇能力对我国国际收支的影响及趋势分析

本文运用1985-2006年的相关数据,通过区分和考虑不同类型外国直接投资对国际收支的影响渠道,分析了外国直接投资的利润汇出和出口创汇能力对我国国际收支特别是经常账户差额的影响。结果表明,外国直接投资是形成我国当前双顺差的主要因素。但是未来这种趋势将会发生变化。本文以2006年为基期进行预测,未来10年内,外国直接投资的出口创汇能力将由于外国直接投资从出口导向型更多地转向市场寻求型而下降,而利润汇出趋势将增强。因而,应加强对外国直接投资的动态监管,减少外国直接投资对我国国际收支的负面影响,避免可能由外国直接投资引起的经常账户危机。     

美在华直接投资对中美贸易的影响研究

中美建交以来,美在华直接投资规模和中美双边贸易总额逐年增加,中美贸易顺差也逐年扩大。本文通过对美在华直接投资和中美双边贸易的发展和现状进行分析,认为这两者均表现出鲜明的行业特点。同时,美在华直接投资通过贸易创造效应和贸易替代效应两种方式影响中美双边贸易,加剧了中美贸易失衡。因此,适当调整中国的外资政策有利于降低中美贸易顺差、减少中美贸易摩擦。     

Modes of Foreign Direct Investment and Patterns of Trade: An Alternative Empirical Approach

Modes of FDI can be clarified by analysing the changing patterns of trade among host, home and third countries. However, most empirical experiments of foreign direct investment (FDI) determinants have been confined to general characteristics of host countries and multinational enterprises' outward investment activities. This may not clearly characterise the specific characteristics of inward FDI in regard to the host country. Thus, we introduce an alternative approach to clarify modes of FDI by investigating the link between patterns of trade and inward FDI. To empirically test whether our approach is applicable, we choose China during the period 1998–2007. We construct a modified gravity equation of bilateral trade while considering spatially lagged interdependence between host, home and third countries. The problem of endogeneity is controlled by applying the system generalised method of moments (GMM) estimation technique. Our findings are consistent with results in existing studies on modes of outward FDI to China and prove that our approach in dealing with the link between patterns of trade and inward FDI has wide applicability to all modes of FDI. We discover there is strong evidence for statistically significant complementarity between bilateral trade and inward FDI within the aggregate trade data. As we decompose the aggregate trade data into final and intermediate goods, we find the motivation concerning export‐platform and complex vertical FDI is very significant. In addition, as we separate the bilateral partners into developing partners and developed partners, we find both bilateral and multilateral linkages are much stronger with developing partners.     

中国与日、韩、俄经贸关系对经济的贡献比较

本文分析了中国与日、韩、俄三国之间外贸依存度对相关国家经济的贡献程度,并运用贸易乘数比较了双边贸易对相关国家经济的贡献度(贸易所得);从(直接)投资依存度的角度分析了中国与三国间相互投资对经济的贡献程度,并运用投资收益率比较了相互投资对相关国家经济的贡献度(投资所得);综合贸易所得和投资所得,估算了双边经贸关系对相关国家经济的贡献度;最后,就如何深化中国与三国的经贸关系进行了若干思考。     

长江三角洲地区外商直接投资的对外贸易效应

本文由长三角地区(16城市)FDI与对外贸易的简单数量关系,构筑了地区层面的对外贸易模型,运用面板数据(PanelData)方法对长三角地区FDI的对外贸易效应及FDI在上海双边贸易中的作用进行了分析。结果表明,FDI对长三角地区的对外贸易及上海的双边贸易均起到了显著的正向推动作用,长三角地区FDI与对外贸易之间存在互补关系。     

The Impact of Bilateral Free Trade Agreements on Bilateral Foreign Direct Investment among Developed Countries

Previous studies find that a trade treaty positively impacts foreign direct investment (FDI). But does a trade treaty always have positive effects on FDI? What is the effect of bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) on bilateral FDI among developed countries? Based on the Knowledge‐Capital model, I hypothesize that bilateral FTA has negative effects on bilateral FDI in developed–developed country pairs, but positive effects in developed–developing country pairs. To test this hypothesis empirically, I conduct the within estimator, the Difference‐in‐Difference estimator and the Arellano–Bond estimator with panel data of bilateral FTA and outward FDI in 30 OECD countries and 32 non‐OECD countries between 1982 and 2005. The result supports the hypothesis. The existence of bilateral FTA decreases bilateral FDI in the OECD–OECD country pairs but increases bilateral outward FDI in the OECD–non‐OECD country pairs. The finding of negative effects of bilateral FTA on FDI is robust to different country classifications by gross national income (GNI) per capita and secondary school enrolment. Hence, the results are consistent with what Carr et al. (2001) predicts about the effects of trade cost on FDI in developed–developed country pairs and in developed–developing country pairs.     

Trade Protection During the Crisis: Does it Deter Foreign Direct Investment?

This paper looks empirically at the implications that protectionist measures implemented during the current crisis may have had for a country’s ability to attract foreign direct investment. The research utilises data on such measures that are available from Global Trade Alert, combined with bilateral FDI data between OECD countries and a large number of partner countries for 2006 to 2009. This allows us to examine the short‐run effect that protectionist measures may have had on bilateral FDI flows. The verdict from this analysis is clear: a country that implements new protectionist measures may expect that this may result in lower foreign direct investment inflows into the economy. The point estimates from our preferred specifications suggest that, depending on the empirical model, the implementation of a trade protection measure is associated with about 40 to 80 per cent lower FDI inflows. Trade protection does not appear to have any implications for the country’s FDI outflows, however. The negative effect on FDI inflows does not appear to be due to direct investment measures but rather to actions related to intellectual property rights protection and other more trade‐related measures.     

国际贸易与国际直接投资理论融合研究路径及其拓展

国际贸易与国际直接投资从理论到实践表现出日益明显的相互融合趋向,特别是贸易投资一体化现象的出现和不断发展使得传统的理论解释体系亟待创新。现有的理论研究工作可分为对两者相互关系研究的阶段和对贸易投资一体化论证解释的阶段。根据两种不同理论阶段的划分,概述对贸易投资互动关系的理论研究和实证分析,归纳对新的贸易投资一体化现象的理论研究思路,从而制定出基于复杂动态系统模拟的新的研究路径。     

Determinants of Bilateral Trade Flows in OECD Countries: Evidence from Gravity Panel Data Models

This paper aims to identify the main causes of bilateral trade flows in OECD countries. The specific features of the study include the explicit introduction of R&D and FDI as the two important explanatory variables, conduct of unit root tests in the panel data framework and careful consideration of endogeneity. The main findings are that the levels and similarities of market size, domestic R&D stock and inward FDI stock are positively related to bilateral trade, while the distance, measured by both geographical distance and relative factor endowment, between trade partner countries has a negative impact. These findings lend support to new trade, FDI and new growth theories.     

How trade and investment agreements affect bilateral foreign direct investment: Results from a structural gravity model

We employ a structural gravity approach to analyse the impact of preferential trade agreements (PTAs), bilateral investment treaties (BITs) and other policies on bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI). We use the UNCTAD global database on bilateral FDI stocks and flows. To control for the heterogeneous nature of PTAs, we employ two different indicators of PTA depth. We find that on average signing a PTA increases bilateral FDI stocks by around 30%. Nevertheless, we also find that ‘deeper’ or comprehensive PTAs (e.g., including provisions on investment, public procurement and intellectual property rights provisions) do not have a significantly different impact than signing regular PTAs. Belonging to the EU single market, on the other hand, has a strong impact and increases bilateral FDI by around 135%, and signing a BIT has an effect that is comparable to signing a PTA.     

The Role of Geography in Financial and Economic Integration: A Comparative Analysis of Foreign Direct Investment,Trade and Portfolio Investment Flows

The objective of this paper is to examine the role of geography in explaining the patterns of financial and economic integration among both developed and developing countries. Using a gravity model, we compare North‐North, North‐South and South‐North FDI, trade and portfolio investment flows to examine how geographical factors influence these bilateral flows. The results indicate that the impact of geography variables on FDI and portfolio are similar to their effect on trade. Geography variables have a statistically significant effect both on FDI and portfolio investment, but FDI is more sensitive to distance. We interpret the negative effect of distance as the existence of information costs in financial flows. Also bilateral FDI, trade and portfolio investment flows react to macroeconomic fundamentals in the same way, however, with different degrees of sensitivity. There are significant differences between North‐North and North‐South flows. Our results find support for the argument that most FDI among industrial countries are horizontal, whereas most FDI investment in developing countries is vertical. The fact that the significance of geographical variables on financial flows still remained even after controlling for the macroeconomic fundamentals, is in contrast with the standard capital market model. The results can, however, be reconciled if geographical factors can proxy for information costs, which may in turn explain why country portfolios are still home‐biased. The significant effect of distance on financial flows may also explain how idiosyn cratic shocks are spread (i.e. contagion) to other countries in the same region. Ultimately, the geographical location of a country may determine its economic and financial integration into the world economy.     

美在华直接投资对中美贸易不平衡的影响

本文利用美在华直接投资和中美贸易的相关数据通过协整检验并构建误差修正模型,较为清晰地说明中美贸易不平衡问题在很大程度上是由美在华直接投资所引致并扩大,这种引致过程主要通过美在华投资企业加工贸易返销美国造成。实质上体现了国际产业结构演进的必然结果,中美贸易不平衡的局面会作为投资贸易一体化趋势下的全球各国经济关系中的重要现象而长期存在。同时,这种贸易不平衡局面会在中国经济各方面快速发展的一个相对长期的过程中趋于平衡。