Modeling the employment–oil price nexus: A non-linear cointegration analysis for the U.S. market

ABSTRACT

Theoretically, fluctuations in oil prices are expected to affect production costs and may force businesses to delay their investment decisions, triggering pressures on employment. Following these theoretical notions, this paper investigates the asymmetric impact of oil prices on employment (measured as total employment, male employment, and female employment), in a nonlinear cointegration structure for the U.S. market. In doing so, this paper adopts the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) model to shed light on such asymmetric association, as the NARDL model recently emerged as a new direction in examining nonlinear cointegration and asymmetry. The empirical findings document a long-run asymmetric effect in case of total employment and male employment only. Furthermore, the short-run asymmetric effect was detected for all three employment categories. As a final point, the Granger Causality test documents a unidirectional causality running from oil price decrease to both total employment and male employment.     

Migration Intermediaries and Codes of Conduct: Temporary Migrant Workers in Australian Horticulture

Over recent decades, developments in network governance have seen governments around the world cede considerable authority and responsibility to commercial migration intermediaries for recruiting and managing temporary migrant labour. Correspondingly, a by-product of network governance has been the emergence of soft employment regulation in which voluntary codes of conduct supplement hard (enforceable) legal employment standards. This paper explores these developments in the context of temporary migrant workers employed in Australian horticulture. First the paper analyses the growing use of temporary migrant labour in this industry. It then describes how different types of intermediaries interact with this workforce. The paper then outlines both hard and soft employment regulations, and contrasts them with actual employment conditions, questioning how a network governance approach has affected this vulnerable workforce. The paper concludes that changes in network governance of migration and employment relations have emasculated formal legal regulation, leaving market forces to operate without effective or ethical constraints at the expense of the public good.     

河北省高校毕业生就业供需匹配研究

毕业生就业实质是高校人才培养与社会需求匹配的过程。本文将河北省高校毕业生就业问题放在河北省产业结构优化升级的大环境中来进行阐述和分析,从河北省高校就业结构出发分析其就业结构偏离度。进而根据河北省高校毕业生就业专业相关性不高、主要集中在民营企业、灵活就业居多、就业稳定性差等就业现状,从市场需求出发,着眼于高校教育供给、毕业生就业能力培养和畅通就业市场人才流动三个方面,分析河北省高校毕业生培养类型、学历层次、学科专业、通用就业能力和劳动力市场分割等方面与市场需求之间存在的矛盾。基于此,从三个方面提出破解河北省高校毕业生就业市场供需矛盾的思路：一是对河北省高校毕业生培养方向进行调整,二是加强大学生就业能力培养,三是加快京津冀劳动力市场一体化建设进程。     

Firm size and employment determination in dutch manufacturing industries

This paper examines whether the determination of employment differs between large and small firms. An employment equation is estimated on panel data of 67 (35) three-digit industries in Dutch manufacturing (1974–1986). The conclusions are as follows. Firstly, employment adjustment appears to be faster in small firms than in large ones. Secondly, the elasticity of factor substitution and the real wage elasticity at constant output are nearly the same for large and small firms. Thirdly, the estimated output elasticities suggest constant returns to scale in large firms and increasing returns in small ones. Finally, the number of working hours has less impact on employment in small firms than in large ones.     

Lord Acton and Employment Doctrines: Absolute Power and the Spread of At-Will Employment

This study analyzes the at-will employment doctrine using a tool that encompasses the complementarity of results-based utilitarian ethics, rule-based duty ethics, and virtue-based character ethics. The paper begins with a discussion of the importance of the problem followed by its evolution and current status. After describing the method of analysis, the central section evaluates the employment at-will doctrine, and is informed by Lord Acton’s dictum, “power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” The conclusion explores the implications of the findings. This is a revised version of a paper presented at the World Ethics Forum, Oxford University, Oxford, UK April 9–12, 2006.     

Small and Medium Enterprises in Thailand: Recent Trends

This paper reviews the evolution of small and medium firms in Thailand in recent years. It shows that such firms did not preserve their share of total employment during the period 1987–96; indeed, their share fell from 60% to 52% over this period. Much of this decline was felt in the category of very small firms (with less than 10 workers). This aspect is explored further by looking at small firm employment shares in three sub-periods of varying overall economic growth rates. It is found that when overall economic growth is high, the share of small firms tends to contract possibly because many small firms become medium in size and others disband because their owners can find more remunerative employment in larger firms. In slower growth periods, the employment share of small firms appears to rise probably because larger firms may be taking in less new workers or even laying off workers. The paper also calculates productivity measures (technical efficiency and total factor productivity) and shows that different measures give different rankings by size of firm.     

The impact of scanning on employment in UK food stores: A preliminary analysis

New technology increasingly is being introduced into retailing at the operational level. One particular example is bar code scanning in food stores. By July 1986 there were 636 shops in the UK with operational scanning systems at point‐of‐sale, and of these 60 per cent were food stores. It has been suggested that scanning checkouts can cause change in employment structures and even job loss. This paper investigates some of the employment implications of laser scanning checkouts in a sample of food stores.     

Assessing the employment effectiveness of small business financing schemes: Some evidence from Israel

This paper presents an empirical assessment of the employment effects of two assistance schemes aimed at improving the accessibility of small businesses to capital. The first scheme is a revolving loan fund operating in two small towns. The second is a capital grant scheme aimed at promoting industrial activity in rural areas. Empirical data relating to the period 1986–89 is analysed for both schemes.The employment effectiveness of the loan fund is analysed via the estimation of cost-per-job indices and the estimation of the deadweight effect, i.e., employment that would have been created even in the absence of the financing scheme. For the grant scheme, the methodology implemented involves the use of regression techniques in order to isolate the effect of the financial assistance on employment generation. The results point to the cost-effectiveness of this form of assistance. From a public policy point of view, the need for targeting these type of schemes (both spatially and sectorally), is stressed.     

How Good are Small Firms are Predicting Employment?

This paper utilises some data from an interview survey of very small firms in the North of England to examine the relationship between actual and forecast employment in small firms over a twelve month period. The paper first provides some summary statistics on actual and forecast employment for the survey firms over the reference period. It then looks at how successful the firms are in their short term forecasts, and finds that there is systematic over-estimation. The causes of the systematic forecast error are investigated. It is suggested, tentatively, that the firms may in some way be incorrectly interpreting the information embodied in their own employment figures when making their forecasts. The paper concludes with a brief review of the results and possible policy implications. Avenues for future work are also proposed.     

我国就业结构与外资的Geweke因果关系分解检验

文章运用Geweke因果关系分解检验和协整理论,研究了1983-2006年间我国就业结构变动与实际利用外资间的长期和即时因果关系,以及外资对各产业内部就业比重变动的作用.结果表明:外资对我国就业结构变动具有单向因果关系,而就业结构变动对外资的影响不显著;其中,外资对第一产业就业比重存在负向影响,对二、三产业就业比重则具有正向影响;此外,第三产业的就业比重变动和外资闻存在即时因果关系,二者的变动具有一定程度的同步性.     

Analyzing the Link Between Real GDP and Employment: An Industry Sector Approach

This paper offers insight into the “jobless recovery” phenomenon recently experienced in the U.S. economy by examining industry-sector employment responsiveness to the long-term real GDP expansion occurring during 1991- 2001. Two employment models are specified—one using real GDP as the only explanatory variable and the other using real GDP, five additional macroeconomic performance variables, and a time trend as explanatory variables. Monthly data for April 1991–March 2001, and OLSQ regressions are used to derive industry-sector elasticities of employment with respect to real GDP. Empirical results highlight the importance of controlling for non-real GDP macro variables when determining relationships between employment and real GDP. The results identify five industries exhibiting “jobless recovery” characteristics (having negative employment elasticities) and a broad range of employment elasticities across industry categories. The findings may be helpful to business economists modeling their own industry employment and suggest that even during extended periods of real GDP expansion, there may be a case for using industry-specific labor market transition initiatives to assist employment growth. JEL Classification C82,R31     

Induced Discrimination and Firm Size: Information vs Incentive Effects

This paper characterizes the differences in incentives to respond adversely to the Civil Rights Act of 1991 CRA91 across firm size. I then empirically test the firm responses and compare them to the incentives. I find that responses across firm size match the incentive differences. Thus firms appear to be rational as well as fully informed. The most pronounced adverse response comes from large firms. Firms with more than 100 employees reversed a trend of increasing employment at a rate of 0.28 weeks worked per year prior to CRA91 to a trend of decreasing employment at a rate of −0.21 weeks per year. Since this group employs 63.7 of the workforce, this has a profound impact on opportunities for protected groups.     

Entry,Growth and Patenting in Industrial Clusters: A Study of the Aerospace Industry in the UK

This paper studies how firm performance is influenced by the strength of the industrial cluster (or industrial district) in which it is located. The paper presents estimates of firm-level employment and patent growth models for a range of '5-digit' aerospace industries in the UK. In these models, employment in the firm's own sector and employment in other sectors is taken as a measure of the strength of the cluster. Strong positive clustering effects are found in many sectors, but nevertheless some clustering effects are negative. Entry into clusters of this industry is also examined and some sectors are found to attract new entry while others are only attracted.     

Determinants of change in service employment in the United States 1998–2005: findings based on a new classification of industries

This paper uses a new classification of employment in the USA based on hierarchical cluster analysis to analyze trends in employment from 1998 to 2005. Measures of growth in employment at the state level are presented, along with selected analyses of correlates of employment change. Specialization in key clusters is related to state growth rates, and the markets of the clusters are identified through the use of input–output data. Shifting consumption patterns are examined for clusters with strong household markets.     

湖北省城乡居民收入偏低的结构性原因及调整

人均收入偏低构成当前湖北省提高消费支出比重和转变经济发展方式的＂瓶颈＂。基于经济结构决定就业结构进而决定收入水平的逻辑,湖北省城乡居民收入偏低的结构性原因在于：创业环境不佳造成了创业和就业的畸轻畸重;产业结构偏重工业化制约了社会就业总量扩大;所有制结构偏国有制拉大了部门间的工资差距;城镇化水平不高阻碍了城乡居民的收入协调增长。因此,提高湖北省城乡居民收入需要进一步调整经济结构：营造良好的创业环境,提高经营性收入比重;调整产业结构,提高非重工业部门的就业总量;调整所有制结构,提高非国有部门的工资水平;发展农业产业化经营,提高农民经营性收入;消除城镇化的体制和政策障碍,提高城镇化水平。     

政府就业补贴、劳动保护政策的就业促进效应——基于沪深A股上市企业数据的分析

就业是民生之本,关乎人民生活福祉和社会稳定。为了让企业吸纳更多就业,政府对企业进行了大量补贴。基于沪深A股上市企业数据,本文聚焦政府就业补贴、劳动保护政策与就业这个主题进行探讨。研究表明,政府补贴有助于推动企业吸纳更多就业,劳动保护能够协同政府补贴促进就业,政府补贴通过“政治许诺效应”和“融资效应”影响就业,地方人力资本积累强化了政府补贴对就业的正向影响;与资本密集型企业相比,劳动密集型企业的政府补贴强化就业的效应更明显;政府补贴增加了企业产生冗余雇员的可能性,冗余雇员在政府补贴对企业生产率的负向影响中发挥了部分中介作用。     

Quantile estimates of the impact of R&D intensity on firm performance

This paper investigates the relationship between initial research and development (R&D) intensity and firm growth using a unique data set for firms with R&D activities in Austria during the period 1995–2006. Results based on the least absolute deviation (LAD) estimator show that initial R&D intensity has a positive and significant impact on both employment and sales growth in the subsequent 2 years. Quantile regressions for each cross-section reveal that the impact of R&D intensity is significant from 0.3 to the highest quantile of the conditional distribution of employment growth. Furthermore, the elasticity of employment growth with respect to R&D intensity is highest for firms at or slightly below the median of the distribution of firm growth. Finally, we find that the impact of R&D decreases significantly over time.     

Employment Creation in Small Technological and Design Innovators in the U.K. during the 1980s

This paper provides rare empirical evidence on employment creation by innovative small firms in the U.K. over the eleven years between 1980 and 1991. Drawing on a database of firms which were recognised as having introduced important innovations, the paper examines the extent of employment growth in these companies and compares their growth with that discovered by other studies of small firms in the U.K. This shows that the innovative firms have grown at a significantly faster average rate than small firms generally. Some of the factors associated with employment change in small firms are assessed. This shows that the initial size, age, sector of activity and type of innovation introduced by the firms were all associated with differences in their average rate of growth. The employment created was, however, highly concentrated in a few firms, but even the fastest growing of these companies (directly) created hundreds rather than thousands of new jobs over the period of analysis.     

Extent and distribution of unregistered employment in the service industries in Europe

ABSTRACT

Although a voluminous literature exists on the prevalence of the informal economy, few studies evaluate unregistered employment and none its prevalence and distribution across the service industries. This paper fills that gap. Reporting a 2015 European Working Conditions Survey based on 43,850 face-to-face interviews, the finding is that 7% (1 in 14) of service industry employees have no written contract of employment across the 35 European countries surveyed, although this varies from 34% in Cyprus to 1% in Sweden. A logistic regression analysis at the European level reveals significant associations between the propensity to work with no contract and various individual-, household- and firm-related characteristics, with unregistered employment more prevalent among women, younger people, those with fewer years in education, migrants, those living in households unable to make ends meet, those working in smaller businesses, and the hospitality and household service sectors. The theoretical and policy implications are then discussed.     

再就业劳动力市场中的人力资本效用——来自成都市下岗女工的调查

以成都市下岗女工为研究对象,分析了人力资本在再就业劳动力市场上的作用机制.(1)在下岗女工群体中,教育的作用是显著的,教育收益率在再就业过程中得到了提高;(2)代表工作经历的工龄失去了人力资本积累的意义;(3)在国有集体企业实现再就业的下岗女工中,是否担任过职务会影响到预期的收入,但是这一点在私营部门没有得到体现.再就业劳动力市场有助于人力资本的合理配置,但是也存在明显的体制性分割.