Pooling international tourism in Western Europe

This paper examines potential improvements in measures of international travel demand elasticities by pooling cross sections and time series of travel receipts. International travel receipts for 18 European countries are pooled and estimates of elasticities with respect to income, exchange rates, relative prices, transport costs, and number of terrorism events are computed. Indexes are developed for the purpose of measuring and aggregating transport costs and terrorism. The results show that the responses to changes in these variables are significantly different across countries. When the countries are constrained to have the same elasticities, but the constants are allowed to be different, it is found that all variables affect tourism in the expected direction and are statistically significant.     

Evaluation of demand: US tourists to Aruba

This study examines international tourism demand to Aruba from the United States. This is the first empirical attempt to estimate the income, price, and exchange rate elasticities on Aruban tourism. An accurate estimate, understanding, and forecasting of the demand based on appropriate analytical methods is important for both the government and private investors. Tourism demand estimates from either the linear and the double log linear models reveal that the effects of income dominate those of prices and exchange rates. In general, US tourists appeared to be highly sensitive to the income variable and inelastic with respect to price. The exchange rate variable was not significant.     

An international travel Demand model US Travel to Western Europe

This paper examines international travel demand between the United States and Western Europe. A complete system of demand equations is estimated to obtain expenditure and price elasticities of the demand for travel. The results allow the classification of regions of Western Europe as substitutes or complements according to the preferences of travelers. It is found that Americans view Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Spain, and Portugal as “luxury destinations” that might expect to receive an increasing share of the traveler's budget. The price elasticities are relatively low for France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg. France and the U.K eexhibited high price substitution effects as did France and Germany. Travel to most other countries might be classified as complementary with respect to travel to France and substitutes with respect to the U.K.     

Tourism in Tropical Africa A review of literature in English and research agenda

Literature on tourism in tropical Africa is reviewed to indicate the current and future roles of tourism in tropical African countries. Attention is then directed to research issues whose investigation may lead to the development of guidelines for the extension, regulation, and management of tourism. These issues are arranged under the following headings: inventory, demand, types of tourism, economic impacts, socio-cultural impacts, environmental impacts, infrastructure, regional patterns, international cooperation, and tourism futures.     

Decomposing seasonal concentration

The main purpose of this article is to analyze seasonal concentration in tourism demand series in three Spanish Mediterranean destinations by means of the Gini index, decomposing it into inequality between and within seasons. This method is applied to the monthly series of hotel nights, covering the period 1980–2001. The results suggest that the “between” seasons component is the most significant one. In the most mature destination this component is stabilized around 90% of the annual Gini index. In contrast, in the destination with the smallest Gini index, which offers a more diversified tourism product, the between component only rises to the 70% and is still decreasing.     

International tourism model for developing economies

This article considers international tourism as an open system consisting of four essential components: demand, marketing, transportation, and accomodation. It examines each component and its relationship to the system. The proposed international tourism model facilitates detection of positive and negative determinants of the system so that a relevant marketing strategy can be developed. The major strategies include a mass-marketing approach for public through tourism intermediaries, and a focused strategy requiring careful analysis of the target market and its needs for unique services. More specifically, the article suggests extensive market analysis with geographic concentration on present and potential tourist generating countries. The model is intended as a comprehensive frame for policy makers and practitioners to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of international tourism.     

Trouble in the travel account

For several years a small but growing group of economists has been interested in the balance-of-payments aspects of international tourism and the travel account. This paper examines the reliability and consistency of international travel data provided by government agencies. Travel data are usually constructed from survey questionnaires, bank transfers, and records of travel agents. Often the quality of the data is low. In fact, it is likely that some countries are not able to tell whether they have a surplus or deficit on travel accounts. An examination of the inconsistencies in travel data reported by different countries will aid researchers in the numerous international travel demand studies.     

Forecasting international tourism trends to 2010

Modifications of earlier versions of forecasting models make it possible to trace the effects of changes in income and prices emanating from each individual country considered in this paper. At the theoretical level, it examines the assumptions underlying partial demand models and points out the implications of these assumptions in the context of those relating to international tourism. The new model is used to generate forecasts of tourism imports and exports for 20 countries for the period up to 2010. It allows a more realistic simulation of the impact of political events such as the introduction of the Euro and of changes in framework conditions.     

The impacts of governance and institutions on inbound tourism demand: evidence from a dynamic panel data study

This study explores the impact of governance and institutions on inbound tourism demand in Malaysia using a dynamic panel data approach for 45 tourism source countries over the period 2005–2015. The results show that institutions play a very important role in explaining the behaviour of inbound tourism demand. To obtain a better picture, we investigate the response of international tourists to disaggregated institutional quality. We find that international tourists are more concerned about political stability, governmental effectiveness, regulations, laws, and corruption than voice and accountability. Therefore, policymakers should focus on ways to improve institutional quality to significantly increase international tourist arrivals.     

Transport infrastructure and tourism development

This paper investigates the significance of transport infrastructure as a factor in destination development, showing it to be part of the classical demand for international tourism functions. An application involving the island of Mauritius is presented, whereby total tourist arrivals are modeled. The findings show that tourists from Europe/America and Asia are particularly sensitive to the island’s transport infrastructure. Those from Europe/America are also sensitive to its nontransport infrastructure. Both types of infrastructure, as well as income of tourists, distance, and relative prices are important ingredients in their own respect in the tourism demand equation. Mauritius is an expanding destination, with the European and American markets being most promising.     

Nonconstant reputation effect in a dynamic tourism demand model for Spain

Following the ideas of the Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC) theory, we propose a dynamic econometric model for tourism demand where the reputation effect (the effect of the lagged demand on the current tourism demand) is not constant, but dependent on congestion. We test the model using panel data from Spanish regions during the period 2000–2013. Two estimations are performed depending on whether the tourists' origin is domestic or international. The results show that the reputation effect is not constant in both estimates, supporting the idea that tourism congestion influences tourist arrivals in Spain.     

Multicity trip patterns: Tourists to the United States

This study examines international tourists’ multicity trip patterns within the United States. Actual and perceived distance from the country of origin to the destination is assumed to affect the likelihood of multicity tourism behavior. In addition, higher opportunity costs for first-time tourists are expected to lead to increased multicity patterns. An analysis of the trips of international tourists to US metropolitan areas confirmed that multicity patterns differ for groups of tourists with different origins and varying levels of familiarity with the destination. Differences lie in the directionality of flows as well as the extent and nature of multicity tourism behavior.     

Modelling and forecasting the demand for Hong Kong tourism

The main objectives of this paper are to identify the factors which contribute to the demand for Hong Kong tourism with the aid of econometric models and to generate forecasts of international tourism arrivals to Hong Kong for the period 2001–2008. The general-to-specific modelling approach is followed to model and forecast the demand for Hong Kong tourism by residents from the 16 major origin countries/regions and the empirical results reveal that the most important factors that determine the demand for Hong Kong tourism are the costs of tourism in Hong Kong, the economic condition (measured by the income level) in the origin countries/regions, the costs of tourism in the competing destinations and the ‘word of mouth’ effect. The demand elasticities and forecasts of tourism arrivals obtained from the demand models form the basis of policy formulations for the tourism industry in Hong Kong.     

基于人工神经网络的国际入境旅游需求的定量分析与预测--以日本对香港的国际旅游需求分析为例

旅游需求预测研究研究一直是旅游学研究的一个重要课题。本文尝试用人工神经网络模型的的3层BP模型来仿真模拟国际入境旅游需求，并以日本对香港的国际旅游需求为例进行模型验证。其输入层结点为SP、FR、POP、GDE、AH、MK，旅客量为输出节点，得出3层前馈反向传播神经网络模型。最后将模拟结果与目前常用的几种模型利用相同的数据源进行对比，最后发现人工神经网络模型模拟结果与目前常用的几种模型利用相同的数据源进行模拟的结果进行对比，最后发现人工神经网络模型的模拟结果与实际情况最为逼近。     

The resort cycle and second homes

Second homes are a major feature of tourism in much of North America and Western Europe. Unfortunately, many models are not applicable to the unique aspects of cottage tourism. This article examines a widely accepted resort cycle concept in order to determine its applicability to second homes. The study area of Sauble Beach (Ontario, Canada) at first appears to be a clear example of the stagnation and decline stages of the resort cycle. However, the inclusion of the growth of residential development and cottage conversions reveals that despite its substantial decline in conventional tourism, the area is actually experiencing a revival. Consequently, a refinement to the resort cycle is proposed whereby a decline in tourism is counteracted by a stabilization reaction. The stage is portrayed graphically using a proposed associated cycle of the average length of stay by visitors and residents.     

Examining the link between meetings,incentive, exhibitions,and conventions (MICE) and tourism demand using generalized methods of moments (GMM): the case of Singapore

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the impact of meetings, incentive, exhibitions, and conventions (MICE) on tourism demand in Singapore over a period of 10 years (2003–2012). Past studies have shown that MICE matters a great deal to host destinations but researchers have rarely conducted any empirical research to verify the significance of this sector to tourism demand. Our study intends to fill the gap by using Difference and System generalized methods of moments (GMM) estimators for dynamic panel models. Tourism demand is measured by tourist arrivals from the top 30 origins, and the influence of real income of the tourist generating country and real exchange rate is also examined. The GMM results show a significant positive relationship between tourism demand and MICE (with international meetings as proxies). Additionally, the findings reveal that tourism demand growth is significantly positive (negative) with respect to changes in income (relative prices). The coefficient of lagged tourist arrivals indicates a high level of habit persistence and revisiting.     

Backpacker ethnography

This paper presents an ethnographic study of the travel culture of international backpackers. Their sociodemographic characteristics are described, the contours of a concept of tourism culture are delineated, and on that basis, that of backpackers is outlined, with particular focus on the key phenomenon of road status. The analysis of backpacker tourism as a culture furthers the comprehension of change within the phenomenon. Examples of factors of change include the guidebooks, the short-term backpackers, and in particular the internet. This study demonstrates the merit of a dynamic concept of culture where culture takes place whenever activated by social circumstances.     

Stated preferences for two Cretan heritage attractions

The paper utilizes discrete choice modeling methodology to evaluate preferences of tourists for hypothetical managerial initiatives for two heritage attractions in Crete, Greece. The results show that they are willing to contribute a significant amount of money for improvements in the quality of information for both sites. Receiving information will substantially improve their satisfaction and thus their chances of visiting. Tourists also make reference to demand management issues, arguing that deterioration in congestion levels in both attractions will negatively affect satisfaction levels. The paper draws attention to future policies designed to improve the quality of the heritage experience, such as the introduction of audiovisual material to complement the presentation of exhibits.     

Do expectations of future wealth increase outbound tourism? Evidence from Korea

As international tourism is generally considered a luxury good, models to date have shared an understanding that demand is dependent on discretionary income. However, consumption theories predict that a shift in demand can be induced without changes in actual earnings when expectations for future income are adjusted. This presumes demand for international tourism can be influenced by “wealth effects” from real estate and financial assets. This study tested for the wealth effect on Korean outbound travelers during the 20 years between 1989 and 2009. Korea is a unique place to examine in that Korean households possess housing assets and financial assets that are traded actively in markets. The results of this study favored the possibility of a significant wealth effect from housing on outbound travel demand, but not from financial assets. This may be explained by data sensitivity and the relative importance of financial assets in the Korean people's wealth portfolios. Implications and suggestions for future research are provided along with the findings of the study.