上海市入境旅游市场影响因素分析与预测——以德国、法国、英国、美国与泰国客源国为例

入境旅游是衡量一个国家知名度、影响力和旅游发展水平的主要因素,也是赚取外汇和旅游收入的重要路径。上海是外国游客入境重要的目的地,也是中国最大的入境游客中转站。文章分析了德国、法国、英国、美国、泰国五个上海主要入境旅游客源国2004年第一季度至2018年第三季度的数据,运用计量经济学方法建模,并实证分析了上海入境旅游需求的影响因素。研究表明,口碑效应、客源地的收入水平与上海入境旅游需求正相关;上海入境旅游具有较大的季节波动特点,冬夏两季入境游客数量减少;世博会对上海入境旅游拉动作用较大。同时,对德国、法国、泰国三大市场未来十年的旅游季度需求进行了预测,预测发现,德国、法国、泰国三大市场未来十年都有较大增长,特别是泰国市场的年均增长率达到4%。     

旅游权内涵解析及其保险保障机制探讨

公民旅游权是基本人权的重要延伸,是一种综合性权利,可分为基础性旅游权和消费性旅游权两大类,旅游保障权、旅游自由权、旅游平等权、旅游资源共享权、旅游发展共享权、旅游消费权和出入境旅游权等七项权利。在我国旅游发展与旅游者权益保护亟待加强的情况下,建议通过相关制度设计构建全面广泛的公民旅游权保障体系,完善我国旅游业持续健康发展的制度基础。在保险制度方面的保障措施主要包括:借助强制保险和商业保险提供公民旅游休闲保障,完善保险制度安排,加强旅游资源保护,进行保险创新,保障公民旅游自由权,加强保险国际合作保障,公民出入境旅游权等。     

Health care and tourism: Evidence from Singapore

This research note analyses the role of the health care sector in international tourism and the impact of international tourism on the state of health care in Singapore. The results suggest that there is a long-run unidirectional causality from health care to international tourism. The effect of health care on international tourism is positive. However, in the short-run, the results also indicate that there is no causality between these two variables. It is concluded that the current efforts of the Singaporean government to establish Singapore as a leading medical hub will attract more inbound tourists in the long-run.     

Investigating tourists' risk information processing

During the last two decades, inbound tourism has rapidly increased in Japan. The country is prone to several natural hazards which create risk for tourists. Previous studies highlight a low level of disaster preparedness among tourists suggesting the need for developing effective disaster-specific communication strategies. Informed by psychology, consumer behavior, and decision-making theories, we test the Risk Information Seeking and Processing (RISP) Model on international tourists in Japan. This study finds differences in risk information seeking and processing across the inbound tourists from mainland China and United States. Results highlight the need for tailor-made risk communication strategies taking in consideration cross-country behavioral differences of international travelers. Limitations and opportunities for further research are also provided.     

Evaluation of the impact of the tourism nation promotion project on inbound tourists in Japan: a difference-in-differences approach

This study quantitatively evaluates the impact of the Tourism Nation Promotion Project on tourism demand. Data were obtained from Japan Tourism Agency’s quarterly survey from 2010Q2 to 2015Q4. Cox and zero-truncated negative binomial models and difference-in-differences approach were applied to analyze tourism demand and the project’s impact on inbound tourists’ length of stay and expenditure in Japan. Empirical results showed a positive and significant average treatment effect on length of stay and expenditure for tourists from Australia, China, Russia, and Thailand. These findings indicate that the Japanese government should use differentiated strategies considering different nationalities’ characteristics to attract foreign tourists.     

Trade facilitation promoted the inbound tourism efficiency in Japan

This study explores the intrinsic correlation between trade facilitation and the inbound tourism efficiency in Japan based on the data from 2011 to 2019. According to the data from JNTO, Japan's inbound tourism showed a strong dependence on the Asian market, the growth rate of inbound tourists in Europe, America and Oceania increased in recent years. The COVID-19 seriously hindered the Japan's inbound tourism development. The fixed-effect regression indicates that trade facilitation promoted inbound tourism efficiency in markets of different types. The positive effect of trade facilitation on sightseeing market was most significant in Asia. While in Europe, America and Oceania, the inbound business market benefited most from trade facilitation. Trade facilitation amplified the positive effect of Japan's air transportation capacity, international tourism income and visa-free policy on the inbound tourism efficiency, and effectively buffered the negative impact of natural disasters. With regard to the estimated results of sub-indicators of trade facilitation, the improvement of infrastructure, government efficiency, customs environment and technological level all contributed to the increase in Japan's inbound tourism efficiency.     

中国入境游客旅游消费变动的实证分析

本文采用1996-2005年入境游客旅游消费数据,对我国入境游客旅游消费变动进行了实证分析.结果表明,在过去10年,入境旅游总体消费水平有显著增加,但仍属于滞后性消费.因此,塑造和完善旅游消费体系和保障体系,营造宽松的旅游消费环境,通过旅游产品供给结构优化调整来促进旅游消费质量的提档升级,将是实现入境旅游消费水平与入境旅游同步发展,入境旅游发展由数量扩张型向质量效益型转变的关键所在.     

The symbolism of international tourism in national identity

Drawing on symbolic interactionism, this paper explores the nexus between tourism and national identity in China. Unlike current research's focus on the role of inbound heritage tourism sites in fostering national identity, this study uses symbolic interactionism to frame an analysis of how Chinese national identity is expressed and affirmed as a phenomenon of experiential consumption through the act of international outbound tourism. A multi-method approach guided the data collection from 28 Chinese tourists in two groups. Data analysis follows a constructivist grounded theory approach that is expressly suited to symbolic interactionism. The findings revealed that international tourism offers a platform on which to affirm and express Chinese national identity through the symbolic interaction between Chinese tourists and the world outside of China.     

THE TAIPEI MRT (MASS RAPID TRANSIT) TOURISM ATTRACTION ANALYSIS FROM THE INBOUND TOURISTS' PERSPECTIVES

Of all cities in Taiwan, Taipei is fully internationalized and best‐equipped with a completed metro public transit system. Taipei MRT Company is trying to increase the number of inbound tourists by providing a better travel experience and design different marketing strategies to increase better MRT tourism attraction. The study purposes are to investigate inbound tourists' considerations for choosing public means of transportation during their travel in Taipei City, conduct the tourism attraction analysis of Taipei MRT system from the perspectives of inbound tourists, and identify how inbound tourists' traveling behavior influence their perceptions of Taipei MRT tourism attractions. The study sampled 312 inbound tourists in August and September of 2006 by using a closed‐ended questionnaire. Factor analysis revealed five factors that can be attractive to inbound tourists: holistic, service, information, tourism image, and location attraction. The study result also indicated that inbound tourists with different socio‐economic characteristics, traveling behaviors, and different MRT experience have statistically different perceptions of Taipei MRT Tourism attractions.     

Evaluating impact of air pollution on China’s inbound tourism industry: a spatial econometric approach

Despite widespread concern about China’s air pollution crisis, very few studies have quantitatively explored its impact on China’s inbound tourism industry. From a spatial econometric perspective, this paper has quantified the direct, indirect and total effects of air pollution on international tourists visiting China, using panel data on 31 Chinese provinces during the period 2001–2013. The results confirm that air pollution has a significant direct negative effect on international tourists visiting China. There exists apparent spatial autocorrelation for provincial-level air pollution in China. Spatial Durbin model shows evidence that air pollution in the neighbouring provinces has a significant negative impact on international tourist arrivals in the local province. The spillover effect is even larger than the direct effect. When air pollution in the neighbouring provinces becomes serious, international tourists are unlikely to travel to the local province. The findings of this study have implications for local governments to strengthen inter-governmental environmental management to invigorate tourism market.     

基于IOWHA算子的组合预测在中国入境旅游中的应用分析

为提高中国入境旅游人数月度数据序列预测精度,文章选择了目前相对最优单项预测模型——TRAMO/SEATS短记忆预测模型和ARFIMA长记忆预测模型,并根据中国入境旅游人数月度数据序列特点,采用非常适合中国入境旅游人数月度数据序列预测并具有高预测精度的传统线性回归预测模型,然后将各个单项预测模型进行基于IOWHA算子的组合。研究发现：基于IOWHA算子的组合预测模型,达到了目前为止中国入境旅游人数月度数据序列预测的最高精度。最后,根据中国入境旅游人数实际值和组合模型预测值的比较,定量分析世界金融危机等事件对中国入境旅游的影响程度和影响时滞,并探究中国入境旅游未来的发展趋势。     

Dental tourism: Examining tourist profiles,motivation and satisfaction

Despite the overwhelming interest in medical tourism research, knowledge in dental tourism, which is its subspecialty, remains limited. This study is the first to measure tourist profiles, travel motivation and satisfaction among inbound dental tourists in Malaysia. We purposely sampled twelve selected private dental clinics in Kuala Lumpur, Selangor, Melaka and Penang; and distributed the questionnaires to their inbound dental tourists. A total of 196 inbound tourists responded to the questionnaire, mainly from Southeast Asia, Australia, New Zealand and Europe. In order of importance, the main motivation factors were dental care quality, dental care information access, and cost-savings. Tourists were extremely satisfied with dental care services received in the country. While dental care quality, dental care information access and supporting services positively influenced tourist satisfaction; cost-savings and cultural similarities had negative influences. Based on the research findings, we propose some managerial and marketing recommendations.     

基于旅游流转移视角的云南入境旅游发展历程分析

云南旅游业自成功举办"世博会"以来取得了迅速的发展,但其入境游客市场中有46.69%是从长三角、京津冀、珠三角三大入境旅游发达区转移而来.但三大区域入境旅游流向云南扩散转移的发展历程各不相同,研究发现:京津冀是云南最大入境旅游中转地,但年际变动较大;长三角排名第二,其入境旅游流转移保持较快增长;珠三角向云南转移数量最少,且近些年不增反减.云南旅游在拓展三大入境旅游中转地客源市场方面还需要进一步努力.     

云南省边境口岸入境旅游和边境贸易互动关系研究

文章以云南省边境口岸作为研究对象,选取2000~2017年边境口岸入境旅游与进出口贸易相关数据,应用单位根检验、协整检验等方法,研究两者之间的互动关系和协调发展。研究发现:云南省边境口岸入境旅游人数和进出口贸易总额在协整检验之后显示出两者之间存在长期稳定关系;在短期内边境口岸入境旅游人数的变动与进出口贸易总额变动之间是一种单向Granger因果关系;入境旅游发展与进出口贸易两者之间的互动影响是长期的,并且边境口岸进出口贸易总额对入境旅游人数的贡献度远小于边境口岸入境旅游人数对进出口贸易总额的贡献度。鉴于此,提出了推进云南省边境口岸地区入境旅游与边境贸易协调发展的相关建议。     

Tourism's vulnerability and resilience to terrorism

Personal security is a major concern for tourists. Most tourists will seek safe and secure destinations and avoid those that have been plagued by terrorism. This research quantifies the relationship between terrorism and tourism in 95 different countries and territories using international tourism demand models. After controlling for income, we find there is no long run effect of terrorism on international tourism demand and the short run effect is quite limited from a global perspective using panel data models. Only nine countries out of the 95 show a long run impact of terrorism on tourism and 25 countries out of the 95 show a short run impact using time series models, implying that international tourism is resilient to terrorism. The influence of terrorism is diverse in destinations with different political instability, income levels and tourism intensities.     

大国优势与中国旅游业的高速持续增长

本文从四个方面分析了大国优势与中国旅游业的持续高速增长,分别是:国土面积辽阔、邻国众多,具有发展国际旅游得天独厚的地缘环境;历史悠久、地域辽阔,高品位旅游资源景点丰富,为发展入境旅游提供了丰富而多样的旅游资源;人口众多、分布广泛,港澳台胞是稳定的客源市场;经济高速增长、规模巨大,日益增长的国际贸易促进了入境旅游的发展.作者认为,上述四大优势为我国旅游业的持续高速增长提供了增长潜力和发展后劲,同时,要将这种潜能和优势变成现实,还需在制度设计、景点开发、设施建设、服务质量提高等方面下大工夫.     

1994～2008年西部入境旅游典型省份客流集散时空动态研究——以陕西、四川、云南为例

文章构建了入境游客转移数量模型、入境旅游流空间集中指数模型、入境旅游流转移态矩阵,基于1994～2008年入境旅游统计数据和入境游客抽样调查数据,定量测评陕西、四川、云南三省入境旅游流集聚指数与扩散指数、入境旅游流集聚态指数与扩散态指数;通过时间序列对比,揭示西部三省入境旅游流的空间集散特征与动态变化过程;通过西部三省之间的对比,分析其入境旅游流空间集散的地域差异性。研究表明：四川省入境旅游客流集散能力最强,云南省居中,陕西省最弱;中国入境旅游客流系统是一个＂东部引领西部,西部反作用于东部＂的时空地域格局复杂的动态平衡系统。文章结合历时性分析方法和共时性分析方法,选取西部三省开展入境旅游客流集散时空动态研究,旨在为探索中国西部入境旅游客流集散的时空演变特征与潜在机理提供典型案例。     

我国入境旅游人次月度指数预测模型比较研究

需求预测是旅游产业经营决策的基本依据,但产业的广泛关联性与各类突发事件使旅游需求预测尤其是中短期预测较为困难.本文采用X12-ARIMA模型、TRAMO/SEATS模型、ARMA模型与GARCH模型,对异常数据点采用附加的外部冲击调整,利用7种估计方法估计了我国入境旅游人次的月度指数并进行了预测比较,发现采用外部冲击检测的TRAMO/SEATS模型由于能有效提取序列数据的信息,对预测我国入境旅游人次最为有效.     

旅游发展对我国投资、消费和出口需求的拉动效应研究

传统观念认为,旅游业能有力拉动国民消费需求。其实,旅游业发展也会引致多方面的投资需求,如景区开发、基础设施建设等。因此,旅游业发展对国民经济增长具有综合性的拉动作用。文章依据宏观经济学理论,构建了入境旅游与国内旅游对投资、消费和出口增长分析的理论框架,并利用1982~2010年相关数据,分析了旅游"两大部门"对中国经济增长"三大驱动力"的影响。研究发现:(1)发展入境旅游与国内旅游,因景区开发和旅游基础设施建设,对扩大投资有一定的正效应;(2)作为综合消费和最终消费,旅游业对扩大消费有着显著的正效应,其中,国内旅游的作用远高于入境旅游;(3)比较而言,入境旅游对出口贸易具有积极的拉动作用,而国内旅游对出口的拉动效应则不明显。因此,积极贯彻实施旅游产业发展政策,大力发展国内旅游和入境旅游,是中国当前保增长、扩内需的重要途径。     

中国出境旅游高速增长的负面影响探析

旅游业是相当于我国GDP近6%的重要产业.国际旅游是旅游者的跨国界流动,是旅游者的消费能力从客源国转移到东道国的释放,被称为无形贸易和"风景资源的就地出口".20世纪90年代以前我国的国际旅游以入境旅游为主要形式,它曾是我国创汇的重要渠道."九五"以来,我国出境旅游持续快速发展.事实上,出境旅游的超高速增长正使我国旅游业面临由创汇产业向耗汇产业的过渡.本文拟从经济社会的宏观角度,将当前我国旅游业的发展看成是我国特定经济社会条件下的产物,从这个角度分析出境旅游的超常发展是否在"适度"的范围,探讨出境旅游发展对宏观经济、国际收支平衡和和谐社会的影响;并基于这种形势判断和负面影响分析,提出相应的政策调控构想.