我国的经济增长、收入不平等与贫困的变化分析

本文使用Datt(1998)提出的基于洛伦兹曲线的贫困度量方法,分析了世界银行公布的1981-2005年我国城乡收入宏观加总分组数据,并且采用夏普利(Shaley)分解方法研究了我国改革开放以来收入增长和分配变化对贫困变化的作用,考虑了不同的贫困度量指标、贫困线对实证结果的影响.分析结果表明,改革开放以来我国城乡居民减贫的成功主要归因于收入的高速增长,而在20世纪90年代后半期,农村和城市都经历了不平等的快速上升和收入增长放缓,因此这段时间减贫的速度下降甚至贫困有所增加,但进入21世纪后随着收入增速的提高和不平等的上升放缓,我国的减贫事业又有了新的发展.     

中国的经济增长、收入不平等与贫困的变动:1981——2001——基于城乡统一框架的分析

本文利用世界银行公布的我国城乡家计调查加总数据,通过Son(2003)提出的四要素贫困分解方法,在城乡统一的框架下实证分析了我国20世纪80年代以来城乡收入增长、收入分配的变化以及乡—城人口流动在我国总体贫困变动中的作用,并特别考虑了不同贫困线和贫困指数对于实证结果的影响。分析结果表明,除了城乡收入增长外,乡—城人口流动是减少贫困的主要动力;不平等程度的提高会降低经济增长的减贫效果,但乡—城人口流动在1990年代后期的减贫贡献趋于提高,在很大程度上弥补了不平等和城乡收入非均衡增长的负面效果。     

中国农村居民收入增长和分配与贫困减少——兼论农村内部收入不平等

文章采用模型分析和基尼系数分解方法,基于2000年以来分省的农村居民收入增长和分配及贫困减少数据,分析我国农村居民收入增长和分配的减贫效应,并探讨农村内部收入不平等状况及来源。发现2000年以来我国农村居民收入增长依然对农村贫困减少发挥着显著的促进作用,但是收入分配的恶化会部分抵消收入增长的减贫作用;农村内部收入不平等程度明显高于城镇,工资性收入是农村内部收入不平等的主要影响因素,家庭经营收入次之,财产性收入和转移性收入对收入不平等的贡献率则相对较低。     

经济增长、收入分配对农村贫困变动的影响

文章利用了基于Lorenz曲线进行贫困测度及其分解的方法,实证研究了1985～2003年中国农村的贫困变动,以及经济增长和收入分配对贫困变动的影响.结果表明,经济增长使农村居民收入增加,大幅度减少了贫困,但农村居民的收入差距逐渐拉大,收入不平等加剧部分地抵消了经济增长的减贫成效.     

收入增长与分配结构扭曲的农村减贫效应研究

减少农村贫困人口是"三农"问题中的主要内容。本文阐述了经济增长、收入分配与减贫之间关系的理论框架,然后定义一族新的洛伦兹曲线,构造我国农村家庭收入的分布密度函数,并对"贫困一增长一不平等"减贫效应分解方法进行修正。进而使用中国健康与营养调查(CHNS)中的农村家庭数据,对1991—2009年东部、中西部省份收入增长与分配结构扭曲的农村减贫效应进行实证分析。研究结果表明,收入增长使得贫困入口比例下降,但分配不公平降低了减贫速度,并导致低收入群体的收入份额不断萎缩。对比分析发现,中西部省份比东部沿海省份、2000年之后比之前的分配不公平程度更为严重。另外,基于Blinder-Oaxaca工资差异方程的分解结果表明,促进农户增收的个体层面影响因素依次为非农经济活动、受教育水平、地理位置和耕地面积,而现阶段贫困家庭非农经济活动参与率偏低和受教育水平增长缓慢是其收入增长的最大障碍。     

收入增长和分配对我国农村减贫的影响-方法、特征与证据

改革开放30年来,在农村居民收入水平快速增长的大背景下,农村减贫进程却表现出明显的波动性和不一致性。基于此,本文在贫困分解的基础上,运用贫困弹性的动态特征,从理论和实证的角度探讨了收入增长和收入分配对贫困减少的影响,解释上述问题。文章发现:(1)人均收入水平越高,贫困越有可能和收入不平等联系在一起;(2)收入不平等越严重的地区,贫困对收入不平等的反应越迟钝;(3)1998年是我国农村反贫困性质发生改变的拐点。文章建议,今后农村反贫困政策的重点应从以促进收入增长的开发式扶贫向以改善收入分配为重点的社会保护式扶贫政策转变。     

收入增长和分配对我国农村减贫的影响—方法、特征与证据

改革开放30年来,在农村居民收入水平快速增长的大背景下,农村减贫进程却表现出明显的波动性和不一致性。基于此,本文在贫困分解的基础上,运用贫困弹性的动态特征,从理论和实证的角度探讨了收入增长和收入分配对贫困减少的影响,解释上述问题。文章发现：（1）人均收入水平越高,贫困越有可能和收入不平等联系在一起;（2）收入不平等越严重的地区,贫困对收入不平等的反应越迟钝;（3）1998年是我国农村反贫困性质发生改变的拐点。文章建议,今后农村反贫困政策的重点应从以促进收入增长的开发式扶贫向以改善收入分配为重点的社会保护式扶贫政策转变。     

经济增长、收入分配的减贫效应探析——以新疆为例

运用FGT贫困指数,以新疆为例,基于Lorenz曲线对农村贫困变动进行测算。结果表明,经济增长具有明显的减贫作用,而收入分配不平等加剧则部分地抵消了经济增长的减贫作用。     

收入增长和收入分配对城市减贫的影响

本文基于对贫困的分解,运用贫困弹性的动态特征,选取《中国统计年鉴》相关年份城市住户分组数据,深入分析收入增长和收入分配因素对中国1991-2009年间城市绝对贫困和相对贫困的影响。结果表明:(1)高速的经济增长对我国城市绝对贫困率下降起决定性作用,但收入分配恶化对城市相对贫困率上升有显著影响。(2)收入水平越高,则收入因素对城市减贫的促进作用越强,且分配因素所引起的贫困变动越大;收入分配越不平等,则收入因素对城市减贫的促进作用越弱,且分配因素所引起的贫困变动越小。因此,我国今后的城市减贫,应在继续保持经济较快增长的同时,以改善收入分配不平等为重点。     

1996—2008年中国县级市减贫效应分解与空间差异分析

提出经济增长、收入分配与贫困线移动三因素减贫效应的分解方法,运用贫困增长曲线,分析1996—2008年中国四大区域县级市的经济增长模式、贫困水平和影响贫困三因素的减贫作用,并进行空间差异分析。实证结果表明:①西部地区的经济属于减贫增长,其他三大区域的经济属于涓滴式增长;②东北和东部的贫困状况普遍好于中西部地区;③经济增长始终起着减少贫困的作用,收入分配差距恶化起着增加贫困的作用,而分配差距改善可起到减贫作用;④使用变动的贫困线有助于独立分析经济增长和收入分配的减贫作用。     

The impact of growth and inequality on rural poverty in China

This paper analyzes the evolution of poverty in China from the late 1980s to the late 1990s, employing a version of Shapley decomposition tailored to unit-record household survey data. The changes in poverty trends are attributed to two proximate causes—income growth and shifts in income distribution. Different data sets, poverty lines, poverty measures, and equivalence scales are used to examine the robustness of the results. Potential biases arising from ignoring differential regional prices and inflation are also investigated. Notwithstanding some ambiguities in the results, it is consistently found that rural poverty increased in the second half of the 1990s and adverse distributional changes are the main cause. Journal of Comparative Economics 34 (4) (2006) 694–712.     

GROWTH, INEQUALITY, AND POVERTY: A CAUTIONARY NOTE

Economic growth had less impact on poverty rates in the 1980s than in the 1960s. Could this be explained by Locke Anderson's observation that the higher median income, the greater the amount of growth needed to achieve a percentage point fall in the poverty rate? No, higher poverty rates are due instead to the rise in income inequality. With higher inequality, however, trickle down could be as effective in the 1990s as it was in the late 1960s. More generally, assessments of anti-poverty policy must recognize that inequality is as vital to changes in the poverty rate as growth in mean income.     

GROWTH AND INCOME POVERTY IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: EVIDENCE FROM HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS

This paper provides evidence on growth and income poverty in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Results are obtained by processing microdata from household surveys of 18 LAC countries covering the 1990s and early 2000s. Over this period the LAC economies experienced heterogeneous patterns of growth and poverty changes. Most countries in the region had a rather meager performance in terms of poverty reduction. Episodes of positive, significant and unambiguously pro-poor income growth have been rare in Latin America.     

Not by growth alone: The role of the distribution of income in regional diversity in poverty reduction

This study examines the role of the distribution of income in determining the responsiveness of poverty to income growth and changes in income inequality using panel data of 58 developing countries for the period 1980-1998. We show that the large cross-regional variation in the capacity of income growth to reduce poverty, i.e. the income elasticity, is largely explained by differences in the initial distribution of income and present region and time specific estimates of the income and Gini elasticities of poverty. We find that the income elasticity of poverty in the mid-1990s equals −1.31 on average and ranges from −0.71 for Sub-Saharan Africa to −2.27 for the Middle East and North Africa, and that the Gini elasticity of poverty equals 0.80 on average and ranges from 0.01 in South Asia to 1.73 in Latin America. Furthermore we show that while differing income growth rates account for most of the regional diversity in poverty trends, the additional impact of differences across regions in rates of inequality change and income and inequality elasticities of poverty is almost always significant and far too large to be ignored, most notably so in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.     

浅析贫困、经济增长与脱贫时间——基于中国城镇居民调查数据的分析

20世纪90年代以来，经济增长和收入分配不平等对于城镇人口脱贫时间产生了消极影响。研究发现，城镇贫困在1997年达到高峰，然后逐渐缓和；贫困人口的收入增长在初期能使脱贫时间迅速减少，但边际效果是递减的；贫困人口之间的收入分配不平等延长了脱贫时间，如果贫困人口的初始收入增加，则会明显缩短脱贫时间。     

Poverty, inequality, and growth in urban China, 1986–2000

Although urban China has experienced spectacular income growth over the last two decades, increases in inequality, reduction in social welfare provision, deregulation of grain prices, and increases in income uncertainty in the 1990s have increased urban poverty. Using a large repeated cross section household survey from 1986 to 2000, this study maps the changes in income, inequality, and poverty over the fifteen-year period and investigates the determinants of poverty. We find that the increase in poverty in the 1990s is associated with the increase in the relative food price and the need to purchase items that were previously provided free or at highly subsidized prices by the state, i.e., education, housing and medical care. In addition, the increased saving rate of poor households, which is due to an increase in income uncertainty, contributes significantly to the increase in poverty measured in terms of expenditure. Journal of Comparative Economics 33 (4) (2005) 710–729.     

All About the Giants: Probing the Influences on World Growth and Income Inequality at the End of the 20th Century

This paper presents estimates of world output growth from 1970to 2000, the distribution of income among countries and personsfor the years 1980, 1990 and 2000, and world income povertyrates for the same years. It also presents the results of aseries of simulation exercises that attempt to isolate the effectof particular country and regional experiences on world outputgrowth and changes in global income inequality and poverty. The authors find that rapid growth in China (despite a downwardadjustment of official growth estimates) had a powerful impacton the growth of world output in both the 1980s and 1990s, butthat negative economic growth in Eastern Europe more than offsetthat effect in the 1990s. With respect to the distribution ofworld income between countries, the impressive growth performancesof the worlds most populous countries, China and India, ensureddecreasing levels of inequality during both the 1980s and 1990s.When the distribution of world income between persons is measured,the equalizing effect of China's rapid growth remains dominantthrough both the 1980s and 1990s, despite the contradictoryimpact of increasing domestic inequality. Only India's influenceremained substantial by comparison. Other identifiable eventsof the period, such as the economic contraction in Eastern Europeand continued economic decline in Africa, had little statisticalimpact. However, when the combined influence of China and India'sabove-average growth rates is removed, or their size effectdampened, the improving global distribution of (inter-countryand inter-personal) income suggested by all statistical measuresbecomes one of sharply worsening inequality. The impact of thesetwo countries is similarly critical with respect to global povertyreduction. (JEL F0, I3, O4)     

Growth,inequality, and poverty reduction in developing countries: Recent global evidence

The study presents comparative global evidence on the transformation of economic growth to poverty reduction in developing countries, with emphasis on the role of income inequality. The focus is on the period since the early-mid-1990s when growth in these countries as a group has been relatively strong, surpassing that of the advanced economies. Both regional and country-specific data are analyzed for the $1.25 and $2.50-level poverty headcount ratios using World Bank Povcalnet data. The study finds that on average income growth has been the major driving force behind both the declines and increases in poverty. The study, however, documents substantial regional and country differences that are masked by this ‘average’ dominant-growth story. While in the majority of countries, growth was the major factor behind falling or increasing poverty, inequality, nevertheless, played the crucial role in poverty behavior in a large number of countries. And, even in those countries where growth has been the main driver of poverty-reduction, further progress could have occurred under relatively favorable income distribution. For more efficient policymaking, therefore, idiosyncratic attributes of countries should be emphasized. In general, high initial levels of inequality limit the effectiveness of growth in reducing poverty while growing inequality increases poverty directly for a given level of growth. It would seem judicious, therefore, to accord special attention to reducing inequality in certain countries where income distribution is especially unfavorable. Unfortunately, the present study also points to the limited effects of growth and inequality-reducing policies in low-income countries.     

我国农村低收入群体贫困变动及其影响因素——基于福建省农村居民收入分组数据的分析

旨在考察一个较长的时间序列内农村低收入人口贫困状况的动态变化,探明经济增长和收入分配等宏观层面影响因素与贫困指数之间的定量关系与内在联系。基于GQ模型和（模型,选取具备可分解性的FGT指数,采用1990—2006年福建省农村居民收入分组面板数据,分别运用4条低收入标准线对低收入群体的H指数、PG指数、SPG指数和贫困弹性进行模拟。实证结果表明,福建省的经济增长有效减少了绝对低收入人口数量,而收入分配差距的扩大却降低了低收入群体的潜在福利,从而影响农村相对贫困的减少效果。