我国企业养老金替代率的影响因素及改革路径

本文通过对我国养老金替代率的现状论述,运用计量经济学的方法,探究何种因素影响养老金替代率,并进一步提出我国应增强养老基金的运作及监测预警机制和基金回报率,构建多种方式的养老保险体系,推迟退休年龄、增加缴费年限,进一步放宽计划生育、适度提高生育率等建议。     

双模型下的养老金缺口测算与我国养老金融体系建设研究

我国自20世纪末初步入老龄化社会以来,老龄化进程不断加快,“未富先老”背景下,我国社会和家庭养老压力加重,养老金缺口持续扩大,亟须进行改革。本文从分析我国老龄化现状与趋势入手,采用模拟精算法和世代交叠模型,测算我国养老金缺口及未来三十年的变化趋势,探讨目前养老金体系的问题,并借鉴国际先进经验,提出我国养老金制度的改革建议。尝试设计适合我国市场的养老金融产品,从而提高我国养老金投资的回报率与持续性,增强我国养老金体系在老龄化加速之下的适应性。     

也说“养老金”入市

人口老龄化、养老金制度转轨成本"显化"等因素使得中国的养老金将面临支付缺口,"养老金入市"自去年年底作为一项解决对策,一经提出,引来了众多争论与评论,难免有失偏颇,文章通过中国养老金体系构成、支付危机与养老水平、养老基金投资目标与风险管理三个方面重新解读了"养老金"入市。     

英国养老金危机反思兼论中国养老金未来发展

养老金是资产管理市场重要的长期稳定资金来源，是跨周期投资模式的典型代表，是资本市场长期投资和价值投资的重要力量，有利于从根本上促进资本市场的健康发展。英国养老金危机，给全世界养老保险体系建设和发展敲响了警钟。目前中国正在发展多层次、多支柱养老保险体系，吸取国际经验教训，有利于中国养老金行稳致远。本文研究认为，中国养老保险体系要坚持政治性、人民性和系统性，避免出现“养老金危机—债务危机”的恶性循环；养老保险基金投资应以稳为主，增强基金可持续性；搭建养老金融生态圈，促进养老与金融良性循环。     

国外养老基金投资管理及其启示

人口老化正成为国际性的问题，养老基金主要关注累积的资产能保证它们的购买力，对养老基金的货币匹配规定是为了确保降低外汇风险。资本市场是养老金基金投资的最终归宿，但以我国资本市场目前的现状，养老金基金入市将承担很大的投资风险。     

年金基金投资组合权益仓位与资本市场走势关系研究

一、研究背景截至2020年末,我国老龄人口数量已突破2.5亿人。人口老龄化带来的养老体系建设问题愈发凸显。养老金三大支柱在我国多层次社会保障体系的建设中都起着不可或缺的作用。企业年金与职业年金作为养老第二支柱,投资业绩将直接影响到参保人员未来养老金账户收入水平。作为年金管理的第一责任人,受托人在年金投资运作中肩负着投管人选择、战略资产配置、投资监督和风险控制等重要任务,承担着维护委托人利益、保证年金基金长期保值增值的重要使命,是年金基金保值增值的守护者。     

中国养老基金投资组合分析

在中国既有的资本市场约束条件下，利用有限的投资工具和较低的回报率实现中国养老这部分基金的保值增值。是中国养老基金运作必须解决的一个基本问题。本文根据中国养老基金投资组合策略自身的特点，首先对一个简化的投资风险最优模型进行了分析；其次利用风险最优模型研究了养老基金的投资组合，并在此基础上针对中国养老基金的投资策略提出相关的看法。     

养老基金绿色投资组合分析与投资策略

绿色投资是兼顾经济、环境、社会三重盈余条件下实现经济、社会、环境可持续发展目标的投资活动。养老金制度与绿色经济可持续发展、绿色资产配置及其风险收益匹配特征、社会责任与道德伦理规范、法律监管要求是养老基金绿色投资的内在动因。实证分析表明,我国新能源指数投资还不能满足养老基金投资的风险与收益要求。我国养老基金绿色投资应坚持养老基金绿色投资导向,坚持浅绿投资为主,选择积极的资产配置策略,政府应培育养老基金绿色投资的良好条件,渐进实现养老金绿色投资和经济绿色增长的良性互动。     

年金基金的投资组合：理论、模型与实践

企业年金在我国处于变革和发展的关键时期，未来巨量资金的投资组合问题值得关注。本文回顾了西方养老基金投资领域的研究文献，无论是税收套利模型还是对养老金收益担保公司的看跌期权模型，都不能解释现实。国际经验研究表明，企业年金的投资组合和发起企业的经营活动现金收益率有密切关系。本文提出了一个考虑发起企业的经营活动现金回报率之后的年金组合理论模型，分析了当前我国行业年金、地方企业年金以及保险公司经办年金等三类年金的投资组合情况，并提出了相关政策建议。     

海外养老基金投资战略与制约因素

本文考察了海外养老基金投资决策中资产配置理念的发展趋势,从战略目标、策略选择、政府监管及舒生产品运用等方面分析了养老基金投资政策的制约因素,对我国养老金投资政策的建立与完善提供了经验借鉴。     

Bayesian Premium Rating with Latent Structure

We propose a fully Bayesian approach to non-life risk premium rating, based on hierarchical models with latent variables for both claim frequency and claim size. Inference is based on the joint posterior distribution and is performed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Rather than plug-in point estimates of all unknown parameters, we take into account all sources of uncertainty simultaneously when the model is used to predict claims and estimate risk premiums. Several models are fitted to both a simulated dataset and a small portfolio regarding theft from cars. We show that interaction among latent variables can improve predictions significantly. We also investigate when interaction is not necessary. We compare our results with those obtained under a standard generalized linear model and show through numerical simulation that geographically located and spatially interacting latent variables can successfully compensate for missing covariates. However, when applied to the real portfolio data, the proposed models are not better than standard models due to the lack of spatial structure in the data.     

The development of the group accounts disclosure system in Japan

The Japanese disclosure system of consolidated statements was introduced in 1977 and extensively revised in 1997. The role of the bureaucracy has been significant in these developments and seems to be part of Japan's closed culture. However, other explanations could also be applied. In particular, although Japanese firms opposed such disclosures on the basis of preparation costs, the Japanese government had to modernize the disclosure system, including consolidation, in order to develop the securities market regardless of an individual company's interests.     

Moments of Compound Mixed Poisson Distributions

Recursive formulae are derived for the evaluation of the moments and the descending factorial moments about a point n of mixed Poisson and compound mixed Poisson distributions, in the case where the derivative of the logarithm of the mixing density can be written as a ratio of polynomials. As byproduct, we also obtain recursive formulae for the evaluation of the moments about the origin, central moments, descending and ascending factorial moments of these distributions. Examples are also presented for a number of mixing densities.     

The designing of corporate accounting law in Japan after the Second World War

After the Second World War, during the neutralization of the controlled economy of wartime Japan, a design for a Corporate Accounting Law was elaborated by the Investigation Committee on the Business Accounting System. The Investigation Committee tried to establish not only new business accounting standards but also a central and independent administrative organ of corporate accounting regulation on the basis of the Corporate Accounting Law. The Corporate Accounting Law was expected to lay the legal foundation of the new corporate accounting regulation regime in Japan. Nevertheless, even though the original design of the fundamental accounting law was never realized, it should be considered the starting point for our understanding of external accounting history in post-war Japan.     

Disclosure of government financial information and the cost of local government’s debt financing——Empirical evidence from provincial investment bonds for urban construction

China’s slowing economic growth and rapid urbanization have made local government debt financing a significant issue.This study uses a sample of China’s provinc...     

Short-sale refinancing and price adjustment speed to bad news: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

Short selling may accelerate stock price adjustment to negative news. However, the literature provides mixed evidence for this prediction. Using short-sale refinancing and a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model, this paper explores the effect of short selling on stock price adjustment. Our results show that (1) short-sale refinancing improves the speed of stock price adjustment to negative news. This result holds after we control for endogeneity. (2) The positive relationship between short-sale refinancing and stock price adjustment speed is significant in subsamples of stocks with higher earnings management or lower accuracy of analyst forecasts, indicating that firms with more opaque information are more likely to be targeted by short sellers. In subsamples of stocks with a higher ownership concentration or lower ownership by institutional investors, short selling is more likely to increase the speed of stock price adjustment, indicating that ownership structure may influence negative news mining. (3) As short-sale refinancing exacerbates the absorption of bad news by stock prices, it increases crash risk. This study enriches the research on the economic consequences of short selling and provides empirical evidence supporting regulations on short selling in China.     

The deliberation around accounting techniques: accounting for depreciation and foreign exchange in an Indian jute company, 1870-1900

This paper examines the way two accounting techniques, namely depreciation and foreign exchange, were deliberated on, between 1870 and 1900, in an Indian jute company whose shareholders resided in the UK. The arena for these deliberations was the conflictual relationship between controlling and non-controlling shareholders as to how best to account for depreciation and foreign exchange especially when the particular accountings affected distributional issues such as the dividend decision. The purpose of this paper is to analyse and explain the processes by which a company's accounting practices emerge and develop as a contest between different interests. Accounting framed the parameters of the deliberations and provided the language of power and dissent. The paper uses a rich archive that includes narrative and accounting material.     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

【正】The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing ...     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

正The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing and corporate governance issues that relate to the greater China region.We welcome the submission of both theoretical and empirical research papers pertinent to researchers,regulators and practitioners.Authors should note: