Policy Determinants of School Outcomes under Model Uncertainty: Evidence from South Africa

In this paper, we assess the determinants of secondary school outcomes in South Africa. We use Bayesian model averaging techniques to account for uncertainty in the set of underlying factors that are chosen among a very large pool of explanatory variables in order to identify the subset of explanatory variables most strongly associated with the dependent variable. Our analysis indicates that the socio‐economic background of pupils, demographic characteristics such as population groups (Black and White), as well as geographical locations account for a significant variation in pupils’ achievement levels. We also find that the most robust policy determinants of pupils’ test scores are the availability of a library at school, the use of IT in the classroom as well as school climate.     

Population Ageing and Saving Rates in China,Japan and Korea: A Panel Granger Causality Analysis

Abstract

The world is ageing fast and East Asia is not an exception. Among the three major East Asian countries, Japan features the eldest society in the world, while China and Korea also witness a dramatic demographic transformation. One important impact of population ageing is on saving rates. In this paper we seek to investigate the causal relationship between demographics and savings in those three countries by employing a panel of data-set and innovative econometric technique – panel Granger causality test. On balance there is evidence supporting the argument that a growing younger population causes an increase in national saving, albeit not necessarily in household saving. The results are robust against different estimation procedures and parameters.     

人口结构变迁与经常账目失衡

世界范围内持续多年的经常账目失衡并不鲜见,以往研究多关注汇率和净出口的关系,而忽视了经常账目余额的另外一种属性——本国在外国的储蓄。本文尝试从人口结构变迁的角度对这一问题给出新的解释。本文通过构建包括幼年抚养比和老年抚养比的世代交替模型,理论分析和预测了：幼年抚养比上升会降低储蓄率、增加投资率,从而减少经常账目余额;而老年抚养比下降会提高储蓄率,增加经常账目余额;试图填补人口结构对经常账目影响的理论空白。接下来,本文利用1990年至2011年全球110个国家的强平衡面板数据进行实证分析,在静态和动态模型下均得到了与理论预测相一致的稳健结果。根据实证结果进行定量分析,本文发现中国抚养比的变化可以解释1990年至2007年间经常账目余额占GDP比重16.6%的变动。     

Differences in corporate saving rates in China: Ownership,monopoly, and financial development

Using the data of the listed non-financial companies from 2003 to 2012, this paper conducts a firm-level empirical analysis to reveal the determinants that lead to differences in saving rates of different enterprises in China. Particularly, we explore the discrepancies in the Chinese enterprises' saving rates from the new perspectives of ownership type, monopoly status, and financial development. We find that only some financial indicators of a firm, including the size and the long-term solvency ability, have direct impact on its saving rate. Besides, the difference in the saving rates between private firms and state-owned firms is insignificant while monopolies have higher saving rates than non-monopolies. Most importantly, financial development generally reduces a firm's saving rate and the impact is independent on its ownership type and monopoly status. Moreover, financial development decreases the influence of a firm's short-term solvency and profitability on its saving rate.     

Cross-Country Private Saving Heterogeneity and Culture

Motivated by the dominant role of cross-country heterogeneity in private saving in the creation of Eurozone imbalances over the past decade, we empirically investigate the determinants of private saving for a sample of 30 OECD countries over the period 1990–2010. In addition to standard macroeconomic variables, we include three country-specific cultural indicators, derived from the World and European Value Surveys. We find these three variables—thrift, trust and religiosity—to significantly contribute to the explanation of cross country saving heterogeneity both for the OECD group at large and for the Eurozone countries separately.     

Household savings in China

The domestic saving rate in China is the highest in the world and it surpasses the investment share in GDP, which is also very high by international standards. This excessive saving results in a large current account surplus. Understanding why the Chinese save so much is a central issue in the debate on global imbalances. The goal of our paper is to analyse empirically Chinese household saving behaviour taking into account the disparities within the country, at the provincial level and between rural and urban households. We first show that, notwithstanding the rising contribution of government and firms to national savings the real peculiarity lies with Chinese families. We move from Modigliani and Cao's (2004) attempt to explain rising personal saving in China within the life cycle hypothesis and show how a more careful analysis indicates that life-cycle determinants do not suffice, especially in the most recent period. Once we consider regional differences and distinguish urban and rural households using provincial-level data, it becomes clear that additional explanations are needed and that precautionary motives and liquidity constraints are playing an important role. Our results suggest that in order to reduce the propensity to save of Chinese households it is necessary to improve social services provision and to facilitate the access to credit.     

Why Has China's Current Account Balance Converged after the Global Financial Crisis?

China's current account surplus declined significantly from its peak of nearly 10 percent of GDP in 2007 to less than 1 percent in 2018. The new pattern offered fresh evidence for our understanding of China's current account dynamics. In this paper, we used flow of funds data to gauge its underlying driving forces. Specifically, by employing index decomposition analysis, we decomposed the current account from the perspective of savings and investment into three sectors: the household, corporate, and government sectors. We found that the decline in China's current account ratio was first driven by cyclical factors, i.e. weak corporate saving growth induced by the economic slump in 2009 as well as the following massive corporate investment bolstered by the government stimulus plan. However, such cyclical factors quickly subsided, and the subsequent current account balance reduction was later supported by structural factors, i.e. household savings declined enduringly and the Chinese government switched to a more expansionary fiscal policy. There are three possible explanations for the structural movement: reduced precautionary saving due to higher social security coverage ratio, lower corporate profits as a result of economic slowdown, and a twin deficit due to the government's more relaxed fiscal stance. The new facts, however, were not consistent with other current account theories focusing on long‐term aspects of the saving–investment account puzzle, especially those relating to China's special demographic characteristics.     

The determinants and long-term projections of saving rates in Developing Asia

In this paper, we present data on trends over time in domestic saving rates in twelve economies in Developing Asia during the 1966–2007 period and analyze the determinants of these trends. We find that domestic saving rates in Developing Asia have, in general, been high and rising but that there have been substantial differences from economy to economy, that the main determinants of these trends appear to have been the age structure of the population (especially the aged dependency ratio), income levels, and the level of financial sector development, and that the impacts of income levels and the level of financial sector development have been nonlinear (convex and concave, respectively). We then project future trends in domestic saving rates in Developing Asia for the 2011–2030 period based on our estimation results and find that the domestic saving rate in Developing Asia as a whole will remain roughly constant during the next two decades despite rapid population aging in some economies in Developing Asia because population aging will occur much later in other economies and because the negative impact of population aging on the domestic saving rate will be largely offset by the positive impact of higher income levels.     

An examination of minimum tick sizes on the Tokyo Stock Exchange

In setting a minimum tick size, exchanges balance the competing objectives of lowering transaction costs and encouraging liquidity provision by minimizing stepping-ahead risk. We examine the trade-off between these two types of costs by examining the proportion of time that the quoted spread equals the minimum tick size (PTIMEMIN). We undertake this analysis on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, a market that sets nine different tick sizes based on stock price. PTIMEMIN varies markedly across stocks, ranging from almost 0 to almost 100 percent. We find that trade size, the number of trades, and price are the most important determinants of whether the minimum tick size is a binding constraint. In fact, trade size and number of trades are more significant determinants of tick size constraint than price. Consequently, we argue that tick size should be set based on trading activity and price, rather than price alone.     

日本储蓄率的变动及对中国的启示

日本曾经是世界储蓄率最高的国家之一,但从20世纪90年代开始,日本储蓄率发生了显著变化,呈下降趋势。日本储蓄率的变动不但会影响本国经济,还将影响世界经济。通过储蓄理论与最新经济数据分析得出日本储蓄率变动的最主要因素是:收入因素、人口因素及社会保障因素。研究日本储蓄率变动对中国调整高储蓄率有一些有益的启示。     

Saving Trends in Southeast Asia: A Cross-Country Analysis

This paper investigates the long-run pattern of private saving in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. These countries have not only maintained saving levels that are currently among the highest in the world, but have also experienced a sustained increase in their rate of private saving over the past twenty years. Using a cointegration approach, this paper empirically examines the economic determinants underlying the saving trends in this group and the extent to which these countries share a common experience with respect to the factors accounting for their strong saving performance. The findings suggest that demographic shifts and, to a somewhat lesser extent, rising per capita incomes have been important factors underlying regional saving trends, with broadly similar long-run impacts across countries. Limited evidence to support a significant and common relation between compulsory and total saving in Singapore and Malaysia is also found.     

Exchange-Rate Coordination for Surmounting the East Asian Currency Crises

This paper investigates the long-run pattern of private saving in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. These countries have not only maintained saving levels that are currently among the highest in the world, but have also experienced a sustained increase in their rate of private saving over the past twenty years. Using a cointegration approach, this paper empirically examines the economic determinants underlying the saving trends in this group and the extent to which these countries share a common experience with respect to the factors accounting for their strong saving performance. The findings suggest that demographic shifts and, to a somewhat lesser extent, rising per capita incomes have been important factors underlying regional saving trends, with broadly similar long-run impacts across countries. Limited evidence to support a significant and common relation between compulsory and total saving in Singapore and Malaysia is also found.     

Determinants of Current Account Imbalances in 16 OECD Countries: An Out-Of-Sample Perspective

We employ panel data as well as country-specific models to uncover empirically the determinants of current account imbalances. We find evidence of slope heterogeneity likely rendering the fixed-effect estimator inconsistent. Mean group estimation is followed to overcome the latter difficulty. Both estimation techniques are evaluated by means of in- and out-of-sample criteria. The mean group estimator outperforms the fixed-effect approach and, moreover, only three economic variables are found to impact on the current account balance significantly. These are the government budget balance, the domestic output gap and the changes of the terms of trade. We finally propose a parsimonious dynamic model of the current account, including only these variables and illustrate that it has similar predictive accuracy as country-specific benchmark models. JEL no. F32, C23, C53     

Demographic destiny, per-capita consumption and the Japanese saving-investment balance

In this paper, we revisit the issue of the impact of demographicchange on the Japanese saving investment balance. Using updatedgovernment projections, we show that the ageing of the populationunder way will steadily lower Japan's saving rate from 31 percent of GDP today to 20 per cent of GDP in 2040. Japan's investmentrate will remain close to its current level of 29 per cent.Thus, Japan's saving investment balance, or current account,will steadily decrease from its current level and will turnnegative in 2025. In addition, we project the impact of demographicchange on the evolution of Japanese consumption per capita,or 'living standards'. Despite the population ageing, we projectthat per-capita consumption will grow until 2010. However, undercertain scenarios, consumption per capita falls in most yearsafter 2010.     

Analysis on Balance Gap between Saving and Credit Account in China

In China, the balance gap of credit and saving account emerged in 1995, and its amount enlarged since then. By the end of Dec. 2005, with 28.7 trillion RMB saving balance and 19.5 trillion RMB gross credit account balance, the gap between saving and credit account was as large as 9.2 trillion RMB, which indicated a 67.8% of credit/saving ratio. Some believed this phenomenon was resulted from on one hand, the rapid growth of saving account; and on the other hand, relatively slower expanding of credit account. Some believed cooling down cash demand was behind the gap, while others claimed the balance gap caused dead capital and inefficiency service of saving account. In fact, the balance gap between credit and saving account might not necessarily relate to dead bank capital. And the phenomenon itself could not indicate the down-tendency of finance power that underlay economy. Nevertheless, it was liquidity not the balance gap should be regarded an index of capital situation in financial organizations. Therefore the balance gap between saving account and credit account could not be viewed as criteria against liquidity position. Solution of this problem should lay in boosting financial innovation among commercial banks, expending capital market and encouraging or permitting commercial banks as well as state-owed funds to enter share market and so on.     

Intra-industry trade by types: What can we learn from Portuguese data?

We provide evidence on intra-industry trade (IIT) in the Portuguese case from 1994 onwards by disentangling vertical from horizontal IIT with two different indexes—the Grubel-Lloyd and the so-called CEPII index- and analyse the determinants of both IIT types. Distinct explanatory factors are identified for each IIT type and we confirm the comparative advantage explanation in the vertical case. The regression results are robust to different estimation methods and to alternative IIT indexes. Nonetheless, sensitivity of the IIT levels to the arbitrary criterion of the CEPII measurement points out to the Grubel-Lloyd index as a preferable method. JEL no. F12, F14     

Monetary Policy Committee Transparency: Measurement,Determinants, and Economic Effects

This paper studies monetary policy committee transparency (MPCT) based on a new index that measures central bankers’ educational and professional backgrounds as disclosed through central bank websites. Based on a novel cross-sectional data set covering 75 central banks, we investigate the determinants of MPCT as well as its economic consequences. We find that past inflation, institutional indicators, and monetary policy strategy are important determinants of MPCT. MPCT has a robust and significantly negative impact on inflation variability and inflation expectations, even after controlling for important macroeconomic variables and institutional transparency, as well as instrumenting MPCT in various ways. MPCT can be both a complement to and a substitute for institutional transparency.     

Savings,Growth and the Resource Curse Hypothesis

An important connection between recent attempts to understand the determinants of economic growth and the measurement of sustainability is the finding of a negative and significant relationship between natural resource abundance and economic growth. This is the so-called resource curse hypothesis. Using cross-country regressions, we offer evidence that the curse may itself be a manifestation of the inability of governments to manage large resource revenues sustainably. In particular, these results offer another perspective on the resource curse hypothesis: the countries where growth has lagged are those where the combination of natural resource, macroeconomic and public expenditure policies have led to a low rate of genuine saving (net saving adjusted for resource depletion).     

Social network,intra-network education spillover effect and rural–urban migrants' wages: Evidence from China

This study examines the determinants of rural–urban migrant wages, paying special attention to the intra-network education spillover effect of the migrants' social network in China. Using the new migrant sample of Rural Urban Migration in China (RUMiC) 2009 survey data, we find that the migrants' social network does have a significant impact on their own earnings. In particular, we find evidence that there exists an education spillover effect of the migrants' social network, which indicates that the education level of the migrants' social network has a significant positive effect on their earnings. We also find that the education spillover effects differ with gender. The results are robust after considering the potential problem of endogeneity.     

The determinants of location choice of South Korean FDI in China

By using extensive and unique firm-level data for South Korean foreign affiliates in China, we investigated the determinants of location choice for South Korean multinational companies. South Korean companies are unevenly distributed inside China with more than 60 percent of their affiliates being located in the three northeast regions. Using conditional logit estimation, we found that market size and government policies approximated by economic zones, quality of labor, and transport infrastructure play a positive role in deciding location. On the other hand, labor costs, inner waterways, and distance show negative and significant coefficients. Finally, the model specification is shown to be robust to possible violation of the assumption of identical independent error terms. Some of the estimation results stand in contrast to those of other studies on the determinants of FDI stock flows from the world or Japan.