Bayesian Evaluation of DSGE Models with Financial Frictions

We evaluate two most popular approaches to implementing financial frictions into DSGE models: the Bernanke, Gertler, and Gilchrist ( 1999 ) setup, where frictions affect the price of loans, and the Kiyotaki and Moore ( 1997 ) model, where they concern the quantity of loans. We take both models to the data and check how well they fit it on several margins. Overall, comparing the models favors the Bernanke, Gertler, and Gilchrist framework. However, even this model does not make a clear improvement over the New Keynesian benchmark in terms of marginal likelihood and similarity of impulse responses to those obtained from a VAR.     

The response of the external finance premium in Asian corporate bond markets to financial characteristics,financial constraints and two financial crises

Empirical investigation of the external finance premium has been conducted on the margin between internal finance and bank borrowing or equities but little attention has been given to corporate bonds, especially for the emerging Asian market. In this paper, we hypothesize that balance sheet indicators of creditworthiness could affect the external finance premium for bonds as they do for premia in other markets. Using bond-specific and firm-specific data for China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand during 1995–2009 we find that firms with better financial health face lower external finance premia in all countries. When we introduce firm-level heterogeneity, we show that financial variables appear to be both statistically and quantitatively more important for financially constrained firms. Finally, when we examine the effects of the 1997–1998 Asian crisis and the 2007–2009 global financial crisis, we find that the sensitivity of the premium is greater for constrained firms during the Asian crisis compared to other times.     

A Model of Monetary Policy and Risk Premia

We develop a dynamic asset pricing model in which monetary policy affects the risk premium component of the cost of capital. Risk‐tolerant agents (banks) borrow from risk‐averse agents (i.e., take deposits) to fund levered investments. Leverage exposes banks to funding risk, which they insure by holding liquidity buffers. By changing the nominal rate the central bank influences the liquidity premium, and hence the cost of taking leverage. Lower nominal rates make liquidity cheaper and raise leverage, resulting in lower risk premia and higher asset prices, volatility, investment, and growth. We analyze forward guidance, a “Greenspan put,” and the yield curve.     

信用风险防范视角下的数字金融探析

随着科学技术在金融领域的飞速发展,数字金融正在逐渐取代传统金融模式而成为经济社会的主要金融服务方式,然而,数字金融是一把“双刃剑”,给我们带来便利的同时也带来了信用风险。在对数字金融与传统金融进行比较分析的基础上,总结数字金融信用风险的形成原因和重要特征,梳理了数字金融信用风险评估的理论与模型,最后结合我国数字金融发展的实际情况,就数字金融信用风险管理提出完善法律法规、建立信用风险评估体系、健全个人征信体系、实行“沙盒”管理、转变监管模式、强化知识教育的对策。     

Financial shocks and the US business cycle

Employing the financial accelerator (FA) model of Bernanke et al. [1999. The Financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework. In: Taylor, J.B., Woodford, M. (Eds.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, vol. 1C. Handbooks in Economics, vol. 15. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp. 1341-1393] enhanced to include a shock to the FA mechanism, we construct and study shocks to the efficiency of the financial sector during post-war US business cycles. These shocks are found to (i) be very tightly linked with the onset of recessions, more so than TFP or monetary shocks; (ii) remain contractionary after recessions have ended; (iii) account for a large part of the variance of GDP; (iv) be generally much more important than money shocks and (v) be strongly negatively correlated with the external finance premium.     

The Gap between the Theory and Practice of Corporate Valuation: Survey of European Experts

The valuation of companies or their assets is at the heart of most financing and investment decisions. Over the last five decades, academics have developed several simple and sophisticated models for corporate valuation. Yet valuation estimates of a firm or its assets appear to vary widely among practitioners. It is unclear whether these differences arise from practitioners' use of different valuation models or from differences in their assumptions about the inputs used in those models. To provide some insights into this issue, the authors recently surveyed 365 European finance practitioners with CFAs or equivalent professional degrees. They find that almost all survey respondents use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model (along with some version of Relative Valuation that relies on the use of “comparables”). But the estimation methods of such practitioners for almost all inputs in the DCF model, including beta, the equity market risk premium, leverage, cost of debt, and terminal value, vary widely. This can be a serious problem because even small differences in inputs can cause huge variations in valuations. Such differences arise primarily because theory provides little guidance on how to estimate parameters, leaving practitioners to make their own assumptions and judgments. In sum, the authors' findings suggest that the process of estimating valuation parameters can be as important as the choice of the valuation model itself, and requires the serious attention of academics and practitioners. The authors recommend that key valuation parameter estimates be disclosed in financial and valuation reports. Their findings are also relevant to policy makers because the concept of “fair value” plays such a central role in post‐crisis regulation.     

失业保险与公司财务杠杆

我国劳动力市场化程度日益加深导致劳动者职业转换愈加频繁,失业保险的作用日益突出。本文探究了失业保险金水平对企业财务杠杆的影响。运用2009—2019年上市公司数据进行实证分析,结果发现失业保险金上升会导致公司财务杠杆下降。渠道检验显示,提高失业保险金可以降低员工失业风险溢酬,公司劳动力成本下降,公司有更多自由现金流和盈利进行内源融资和偿还债务,公司财务杠杆下降。进一步分析发现,失业保险金的作用在失业率高的地区更加显著。主要结果在分别运用《社会保险法》和《关于调整失业保险金标准的指导意见》构造双重差分模型和工具变量解决内生性问题、更改模型设置、排除投资水平影响、删除特殊省份、更换样本期间后,依然成立。本文结果说明加大失业保险保障力度有助于降低企业财务风险。     

Mossin's Theorem for Upper-Limit Insurance Policies

Although Mossin's Theorem (“full insurance with a fair premium and less‐than‐full coverage with a proportional premium loading”) is well known for the classes of coinsurance contracts and for deductible‐insurance contracts, it has not been proven for the class of upper‐limit insurance contracts. This article provides a proof for this case.     

On the Economics of Postassessments in Insurance Guaranty Funds: A Stakeholders’ Perspective

This article proposes a model that suggests there are contagion effects among members of an insurance guaranty fund when postassessments are charged to all other insurers upon the failure of a member company. Indeed, these extraordinary payments are shown to increase the default rate of other firms in the industry, ultimately lowering the value of corporate claims as well as government tax claims. The model is also used to examine the efficiency of different recoupment mechanisms (both existing and new) used by regulators and insurers to potentially reduce these contagion effects. Analysis allows us to stipulate the conditions under which a “tax carryforward” provision could be more efficient than the usual recoupment mechanisms known as “premium rate surcharge” and “premium tax credit.”     

THE HISTORY OF FINANCE: AN EYEWITNESS ACCOUNT

In this account of the evolution of finance theory, the “father of modern finance” uses the series of Nobel Prizes awarded finance scholars in the 1990s as the organizing principle for a discus‐sion of the major developments of the past 50 years. Starting with Harry Markowitz's 1952 Journal of Finance paper on “Portfolio Selection,” which provided the mean‐variance frame‐work that underlies modern portfolio theory (and for which Markowitz re‐ceived the Nobel Prize in 1990), the paper moves on to consider the Capi‐tal Asset Pricing Model, efficient mar‐ket theory, and the M & M irrelevance propositions. In describing these ad‐vances, Miller's major emphasis falls on the “tension” between the two main streams in finance scholarship: (1) the Business School (or “micro normative”) approach, which focuses on investors ‘attempts to maximize returns and cor‐porate managers’ efforts to maximize shareholder value, while taking the prices of securities in the market as given; and (2) the Economics Depart‐ment (or “macro normative”) approach, which assumes a “world of micro optimizers” and deduces from that assumption how the market prices actually evolve. The tension between the two ap‐proaches is resolved, and the two streams converge, in the final episode of Miller's history–the breakthrough in option pricing accomplished by Fischer Black, Myron Scholes, and Rob‐ert Merton in the early 1970s (for which Merton and Scholes were awarded the Nobel Prize in 1998, “with the late Fischer Black everywhere ac‐knowledged as the third pivotal fig‐ure”). As Miller says, the Black‐Scholes option pricing model and its many successors “mean that, for the first time in its close to 50‐year history, the field of finance can be built, or…rebuilt, on the basis of ‘observable’ magnitudes.” That option values can be calculated (almost entirely) with observable vari‐ables has made possible the spectacu‐lar growth in financial engineering, a highly lucrative activity where the prac‐tice of finance has come closest to attaining the precision of a hard sci‐ence. Option pricing has also helped give rise to a relatively new field called “real options” that promises to revolu‐tionize corporate strategy and capital budgeting. But if the practical applications of option pricing are impressive, the op‐portunities for further extensions of the theory by the “macro normative” wing of the profession are “vast,” in‐cluding the prospect of viewing all securities as options. Thus, it comes as no surprise that when Miller asks in closing, “What would I specialize in if I were starting over and entering the field today?,” the answer is: “At the risk of sounding like the character in ‘The Graduate,’ I reduce my advice to a single word: options.”     

An essay on financial innovation: The case of instalment receipts

We investigate the relative pricing of an innovated security called “instalment receipts” (IRs). IRs are securities that evidence the purchase of some underlying securities on an instalment basis. Theoretically, we show that investors with borrowing restrictions will be willing to pay for the leverage benefit embedded in IRs. We then provide an empirical support for our argument. The observed premium in IR price over the underlying price implies that by using IRs, the issuers benefit from both an increase in demand and a reduction in the price concessions that they have to make to ensure the success of their offerings.     

The Great Inflation of the 1970s

The two leading explanations for the poor inflation performance during the 1970s are policy opportunism ( Barro and Gordon 1983 ) and "inadvertently" bad monetary policy ( Clarida, Gali, and Gertler 2000 , Orphanides 2003 ). The main models of the latter category are that of Orphanides (loose monetary policy was the outcome of mis-perceptions about potential output rather than of inflation tolerance) and of Clarida, Gali, and Gertler (weak policy reaction to expected inflation led to indeterminacies). We show that both of these models can account for high and persistent inflation and also have satisfactory overall performance if an exceptionally large decrease in productivity took place at that time.     

Banking Competition,Collateral Constraints,and Optimal Monetary Policy

We analyze optimal monetary policy in a model with two distinct financial frictions: monopolistically competitive banks that charge endogenous lending spreads, and collateral constraints. We show that welfare maximization is equivalent to stabilization of four goals: inflation, output gap, the “consumption gap” between borrowers and savers, and a “housing gap” that measures the distortion in the distribution of the collateralizable asset between both groups. Collateral constraints create a trade‐off between stabilization goals. Following both productivity and financial shocks, and relative to strict inflation targeting, the optimal policy implies sharper movements in the policy rate, aimed primarily at reducing fluctuations in asset prices and hence in borrowers' net worth. The policy trade‐offs become amplified as banking competition increases, due to the fall in lending spreads and the resulting increase in borrowers' leverage.     

On the Structural Interpretation of the Smets–Wouters “Risk Premium” Shock

This article shows that the “risk premium” shock in Smets and Wouters (2007) can be interpreted as a structural shock to the demand for safe and liquid assets such as short‐term U.S. Treasury securities. Several implications of this interpretation are discussed.     

LEVERAGING THE UNDERINVESTMENT PROBLEM: HOW HIGH DEBT AND MANAGEMENT SHAREHOLDINGS SOLVE THE AGENCY COSTS OF FREE CASH FLOW

It is argued that leveraged buyouts (LBOs) provide managers with a powerful incentive to release excess cash rather than invest in negative net present value projects. This incentive is attributed to the large debt obligations associated with “junk” bond financing and to an increase in the shareholdings of top management. In this paper I explore the conditions under which leverage and management shareholdings complement one another in resolving the agency costs of free cash flow and would therefore optimally be used “together” as in an LBO. Complementarity is shown to obtain under plausible conditions, essentially because increased leverage reduces equityholders' share of investment returns. Increased management shareholdings then leverage this underinvestment effect. My analysis also helps explain why top managers who participate in an LBO receive a highly leveraged equity claim rather than a share of the “strip” that is generally provided to outside investors.     

Buyout Activity: The Impact of Aggregate Discount Rates

Buyout booms form in response to declines in the aggregate risk premium. We document that the equity risk premium is the primary determinant of buyout activity rather than credit‐specific conditions. We articulate a simple explanation for this phenomenon: a low risk premium increases the present value of performance gains and decreases the cost of holding an illiquid investment. A panel of U.S. buyouts confirms this view. The risk premium shapes changes in buyout characteristics over the cycle, including their riskiness, leverage, and performance. Our results underscore the importance of the risk premium in corporate finance decisions.     

Procyclicality of the comovement between dividend growth and consumption growth

Duffee (2005) shows that the amount of consumption risk (i.e., the conditional covariance between market returns and consumption growth) is procyclical. In light of this “Duffee Puzzle,” I empirically demonstrate that the conditional covariance between dividend growth (i.e., the immediate cash flow part of market returns) and consumption growth is (1) procyclical and (2) a consistent source of procyclicality in the puzzle. Moreover, I solve an external habit formation model that incorporates realistic joint dynamics of dividend growth and consumption growth. The procyclical dividend-consumption comovement entails two new procyclical terms in the amount of consumption risk via cash flow and valuation channels, respectively. These two procyclical terms play an important role in generating a realistic magnitude of consumption risk. In contrast to extant habit formation models, the conditional equity premium no longer increases monotonically when a negative consumption shock arrives because it might lower the amount of risk while increasing the price of risk.     

金融包容的逻辑起点及体系构建——兼论新背景下金融包容的推进与应用

鉴于国内对金融排斥、普惠金融、金融包容的研究还存在诸多分歧,地理学者和金融学者对其可达性及使用性维度仍有不同理解,从学术溯源的角度,通过梳理金融包容的历史沿革和内涵演化,界定不同理念之间的区别与联系,并结合最新的数字金融、虚拟集聚背景,提出“三度”“三维”“三协调”为一体的金融包容体系。从复杂系统论的角度,创新性地将其分为金融包容的协调体系、风险管理体系、创新体系、组织体系及传导体系,并探索了主流金融范畴的扩展、格莱珉模式的思考以及传递渠道的创新等,剖析了新的研究范式的不足,为未来理论研究和实践推进提供路径及展望。     

The Dynamic Extreme Co-Movement between Chinese Stock Market and Global Stock Markets

ABSTRACT

We use time-varying Symmetrized Joe-Clayton Copula model to study the extreme co-movement (boom or crash together) between the Chinese stock market and major stock markets in the world from 2007 to 2017, including developed markets and stock markets on “Belt and Road Initiative” (hereafter B.R.I.). We find that the extreme co-movement probability between Chinese market and “Belt and Road Initiative” markets is higher than developed markets at both tails. Then we study important “real” and “non-fundamental” factors affecting the excess co-movement probability, including bilateral trade openness, financial integration, and economic policy uncertainty. The results of panel regression analysis show that: the bilateral financial integration has significant effects over the lower tail dependence between Chinese and developed markets, but does not affect the extreme co-movement between Chinese and B.R.I. markets. And the bilateral trade openness is an important factor for the extreme co-movement at both tail between Chinese and global markets. The economic policy uncertainty index, especially China’s economic policy uncertainty, plays a key role in the extreme co-movement between Chinese and developed markets at both tails. However, it has sizable effects only at the upper tail co-movement between Chinese and B.R.I. markets.