国外主权财富基金投资取向借鉴与启示

文章介绍并比较了阿联酋阿布扎比投资局、挪威政府养老基金和新加坡淡马锡控股有限公司的投资取向,学习借鉴了国外主权财富基金成功的管理经验。同时,结合全球主要国家和组织对中国主权财富基金兴起的态度,分析了中国投资公司所面临的国际金融环境并提出在未来发展中的建议:首先,中国主权财富基金要明确定位;其次,制定比较基准组合控制收益和风险;再次,参照全球主要指数选股以减少和控制投资的非系统风险;最后,信息透明度不宜过高。     

挪威主权财富基金——政府全球养老基金的投资模式

挪威的主权财富基金成立较早，其投资运作堪称业内的典范。全面地分析总结了挪威主权财富基金一政府全球养老基金的投资模式。挪威政府全球养老基金在建立投资管理框架，注重公司治理制度的改进，适度放松对单一公司持有的最高股权比例，构建基金基准组合，进行全球范围的资产配置，将指数化管理与积极管理相结合，由内外部经理共同管理基金，完善基金的再平衡机制，定期公布投资绩效等方面的经验，值得中国中投公司学习借鉴。     

全球主权财富基金资产配置行为和规律:基于国家、行业和企业的多层分析

在近年欧美发达国家量化宽松政策背景下,外汇储备保值增值压力巨大,探寻全球主权财富基金资产配置行为和规律,有助于指导我国主权财富基金投资实践。本文收集了2009-2011年全球64家主权财富基金2000多例投资项目,利用多层统计研究了全球主要SWFs在国家、行业和企业不同层面的资产配置行为。研究发现SWFs:首先,政治和战略动机并不明显,偏好民主程度高、地理空间距离近的国家;其次,虽然金融业配置比例依然较大,但次贷危机后没有明显的行业配置倾向;最后,以投资盈利为主要目的,偏好收益表现较好、有增长潜力的企业。     

中国主权财富基金对外直接投资战略文献综述

美国次贷危机引起国际投资市场剧烈波动，中国主权财富基金也深受其害，本文首先梳理了中国主权财富基金战略定位，然后从战略效应、区位战略、行业战略及投资模式四个方面，对中国主权财富基金对外直接投资战略研究现状进行归纳分祈，并对现有研究做出评述。     

我国主权财富基金投资:风险识别与风险评估体系设计

本文对主权财富基金的投资风险进行了鉴别和分类,借鉴评级评分法和风险测度方法,构建了具有可操作性的主权财富基金投资风险三因素评估体系(CSC Assessment System),并以中国投资有限责任公司的投资为例对该体系进行了演绎。     

主权财富基金对外直接投资的选择

针对主权财富基金对外直接投资的选择问题,提出从行业和企业两个层面对值得入股的国内企业进行选择。首先论述了主权财富基金在对外直接投资时进行行业选择的思路,分析了我国主权财富基金对外直接投资的行业战略,进一步确定了行业组合的优先次序;然后针对所选行业中的国内上市公司,运用DEA模型对其进行了效率评价,最终确定主权财富基金的国内企业选择。     

主权财富基金与中投公司

近年来主权财富基金获得了飞速发展,并引发全球范围内的热烈关注.在俄罗斯、中国等发展中大国涉足该领域时,主权财富基金的国际投资环境已经日趋恶化.然而,次级债危机的爆发暂时改善了主权财富基金的投资环境.中投公司是中国政府开展外汇储备积极管理迈出的重要一步,但目前在投资策略、绩效评价和治理结构方面均存在一定的不足或不确定性.全球著名主权财富基金可为中投公司的经营管理提供有益借鉴.     

刍议金融危机环境下我国主权财富基金的发展对策

随着我国外汇储备规模不断扩大,设立主权财富基金成为我国政府寻求积极外汇管理的一种重要方式,同时也牵涉到诸多复杂的政治经济问题。2007年9月成立的中国投资责任有限公司标志着我国主权财富基金的成立,但成立之初公司定位尚不明确,同时面临着全球范围内的投资策略选择等诸多问题。2008年,由次贷危机引起的金融危机给我国主权财富基金带来了机遇和挑战,文章对此进行了分析并提出了一些对策建议。     

主权财富基金与共同基金的股权投资特点比较

为了更好地理解主权财富基金的投资特点,选取与之相似程度较高的共同基金进行对比,明确了其投资在地域、行业方面的异同。发现投资背后的主要原因在于促进本国经济的发展,服务于本国的利益。进一步,通过简要分析主权财富基金投资的新变化,对我国主权财富基金的投资提供了启示。     

主权财富基金的委托代理人问题及其投资策略

近年来,主权财富基金作为一种机构投资者,其一举一动越来越引起社会各界的关注,我国在2007年也成立了自己的主权财富基金——中国投资有限公司。本文的研究发现,主权财富基金同一般的国有企业在本质上一样,也存在无法根本解决的所有权人缺位的委托代理人问题。本文利用简化的双任务委托代理模型,论证了主权财富基金在同时存在政治任务和市场任务的双重压力时,其经营是无效率的。同时,考虑到主权财富基金在国际上已经存在了相当长的一段时间,本文也参考了国际上的一些主权基金的基本经验,对中国投资有限公司的投资和管理提出了一些建议。     

Country factors and the investment decision-making process of sovereign wealth funds

In this paper, we examine the complex decision-making processes that lead to sovereign wealth funds' (SWFs’) choice of investment location. Using a two-tiered dynamic Tobit panel model, we find that country-level factors do not have the same impacts on the investment decision and the amount to invest and that SWFs tend to invest more frequently and at higher amounts in countries in which they have already invested. More specifically, we find that SWFs prefer to invest in countries with higher political stability, whereas they are more prone to invest large amounts in countries that are less democratic and more financially open. Our results also lend support to the idea that SWFs are prudent in their choice of a target country with regard to their investment decision but behave as more opportunistic investors with regard to the amounts to be invested.     

提升利用外资质量:理论分析与对策思路

在提升利用外资质量上,现有研究更多地关注本土生产要素,尤其是劳动力素质的提高和外资开放领域的不断扩大对吸引高端FDI的重要作用。但从实践情况来看,现有的努力包括鼓励外资向高端投资的政策导向,似乎并没有如我们预期那样带动FDI向高端领域流入。尽管我国加入世界贸易组织以后,经济已经不是"出口导向型"经济而是开放型经济,但由于体制、机制、外资外贸政策等因素作用,来华投资的外资却表现出明显的"出口导向"特征,实际上把中国作为全球的加工厂,这就严重影响了中国利用外资水平和层次的提升。因此,发挥中国国内市场规模优势,破除各种体制机制等障碍因素,适时调整外资外贸政策,应当成为中国提升外资利用质量的着力点。     

Tools of Survival: Sovereign Wealth Funds in Singapore and China

The rise of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) as major investors in the global economy has raised worries that they serve the geopolitical ends of owner countries. However, given the paramount importance of surviving domestic political competitions, SWFs are likely also tools of domestic political survival. In examining the corporate governance and underlying political environment in which SWFs in Singapore and in China operate, this paper further examines the role of political unity in directing SWF behaviour in authoritarian regimes. The main finding is that a highly unified autocracy is more likely to direct SWFs to maximise long-term profit, while a fragmented one like China is more likely to treat its SWF as an arena for domestic political and bureaucratic infighting. SWFs operating in a fragmented regime are unlikely to make long-term profit and foreign policy objectives top priorities, and their behaviour can be highly unpredictable.     

China’s Investments in Skills

This paper discusses the benefits of investment in skills in China. We highlight the achievements China has made over time in human capital investments and the new challenges that have emerged as the country develops. To fuel China’s further economic growth and social developments, it is essential to take a more holistic view on skill investments. We suggest policies that promote both economic efficiency and social mobility.     

The changing US–China investment relationship

The United States and China are at a turning point in their investment relationship. China’s previous investments in the United States were predominantly in government securities, while other holdings were negligible. Recently, the accumulation of treasury securities has slowed and direct investments by Chinese firms have risen steeply, with Beijing signaling greater support for portfolio investment outflows as well. This article describes the nascent shift in patterns of Chinese investment in the United States and uses the case of direct investment to examine the implications for US–China relations. We discuss current and future policy issues presented by Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in the United States, including national security, market access, and antitrust.     

A flying goose chase: China’s overseas direct investment in manufacturing (2011–2013)

This paper examines whether rising wages have driven Chinese manufacturers to make foreign direct investment abroad to reduce the costs of production. We match the Chinese Ministry of Commerce’s register of Overseas Direct Investments with China’s Industrial Enterprise Survey data from 2011 to 2013 and annual average wage data for prefecture-level cities. Although high-income developed economies are the preferred destinations for Chinese manufacturing investment abroad, labor-intensive light manufacturing sectors related to the textiles, clothing and leather industries are focused on the low-income countries – consistent with a ‘flying goose’ effect. But, these are only a small part of the Chinese investment – account for 6% of the number of matched official ODI registrations. Yet, it might be still too early to observe that rising factor prices are systematically driving investments offshore.     

政府基础设施投资与居民收入关系的实证研究

政府支出的目的之一就是改善人民群众的生活条件,增加居民收入。基于中国1980—2009年的时间序列数据进行实证研究,通过协整检验、Granger因果检验和误差修正模型的建立来分析政府基础设施投资支出与城镇居民收入的关系。结果发现政府基础设施投资支出与城镇居民收入具有长期的均衡关系,且政府基础设施投资支出是城镇居民收入的Granger原因（反向不成立）。     

Sovereign Dilemmas: Saudi Arabia and Sovereign Wealth Funds

While the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) can claim over half of SWF assets globally, the largest and most strategically important state, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, has heretofore lacked a dedicated investment fund. This paper challenges some of the conventional wisdom on SWFs in explaining the Saudi government's reticence to launch an SWF and its recent decision to cautiously move in this direction. First, while Washington policy makers raise fears of enemies using SWFs against US interests, Saudi foreign assets have been used in support of its continuing alliance with the United States. And second, while critics decry the lack of transparency of SWFs, the Saudi launch of a new SWF could represent a move toward greater transparency, by working to separate “private” sovereign funds from “public” ones. Indeed, the launch of a SWF fits into a broad pattern of reforms rationalising Saudi governing institutions as King Abdullah has moved to control spendthrift princes, to streamline decision making, and to attract more foreign investment.     

日本对华直接投资对中日贸易影响的计量分析

利用1986—2010年的时间序列数据,运用Johanson协整检验和Granger因果检验,分析日本对华直接投资对中日贸易所产生的影响。实证分析结果表明,在长期内日本对华累计直接投资和日本对华进出口之间存在长期关系,并日本对华累计直接投资对日本对华出口和进口产生不同的影响,且累计直接投资与日本对华出口之间存在格兰杰意义上的因果关系。从中得出日本对华直接投资发生了结构性变化,中国进入＂世界市场＂时代的结论。     

短期跨境资本流动、金融市场与系统性风险*

由于2008年美国金融危机而导致的全球经济危机一直在延续,系统性金融风险的防范已经成为全球各国政府和金融监管机构共同的课题。而随着人民币国际化的开展和我国跨境资本流动受关注程度的提高,短期跨境资本流动对系统性风险的潜在影响越来越成为一个不容忽视的议题。本文使用SRISK指标测度了我国的系统性风险,并通过构建传统VAR模型和VAR MGARCH DCC模型,对我国“8·11”汇改前后的短期跨境资本流动、系统性风险、股票价格收益率、人民币在离岸利差、离岸人民币与美元利差五变量及其波动性之间的联动关系进行了检验。实证研究证明,我国短期跨境资本流动与系统性风险及两者波动性之间均存在明显的关联关系。