基于灰色关联分析的公路工程造价估算研究

目前分析公路工程造价相似性问题过多依赖于主观经验判断法,缺乏有效合理的定量方法,本文利用灰色关联度分析原理,提出一种分析公路工程造价相似性的定量方法。首先选取相似案例库,采用熵值法求出该案例库的重要属性特征权重值,再计算出相似案例库与待估案例的灰色关联度,最后得出待估案例的公路工程造价估算值,并通过实例证明该估算模型研究的可行性。     

尼雅水库工程投资估算及经济评价分析

水库工程投资大,在批准建设前对其进行投资估算和经济评价,是分析工程可行性的必要环节。文章对新疆尼雅水库工程投资进行估算,得出其静态总投资额为91525万元,通过确定评价指标,对其盈亏平衡和敏感性分析,工程生产力实际利用率为65%左右,且其财务内部收益率维持在一个较为稳定范围,工程具有较强的财务抗风险能力。     

300 kt/a改性沥青装置的经济分析

针对300kt／a改性沥青装置建设的必要性和在经济上的可行性，对重交通道路沥青的需求进行了市场调查和预测，并以投资、成本估算为基础，进行了财务指标计算以及盈利能力、不确定性和风险的分析，确认实施该项目的必要性和经济上的可行性。     

三亚南山基地LPG回收设施可行性研究

为了确定海南三亚南山基地液化石油气（LPG）回收设施建设的必要性和在经济上的可行性，对LPG的市场进行了调查和预测，并以投资、成本估算为基础，进行了财务指标计算与盈利能力、不确定性和风险分析，确认项目实施的必要性和经济上的可行性。     

石化行业VOCs排放估算方法及监管要点

随着国家在处理经济发展和环境污染之间矛盾的措施不断完善,相关部门和人员研究及关注的程度也进一步上升。挥发性有机物VOCs成为各种污染气体之后国家防治的重点内容。在针对挥发性有机物的排放中,可以从估算方面加大措施可行性。石化工业是经济发展的重要支柱,但是石化工业中挥发性气体排放对环境的污染也是可持续发展必须解决的问题。文章就当下的石化行业VOCs排放现状进行分析,就估算方法进行进一步研究,得出相应的监管要点。     

浅谈电网工程可研阶段造价控制的方法

正一、前言投资估算是电网工程总投资的限额,也是项目可行性研究报告的重要组成部分,投资估算对于项目的决策及成败起到十分重要的作用。随着电力体制改革的不断深化,输配电价已经开始实行,电网企业结束购销差价作为主要收入来源,开启新的盈利模式,电网投资效益地位愈发凸显。因此,做好可研阶段造价     

我国煤炭投资指数估算法初探

指数估算法(亦称“0.6指数法”)被国外普遍用于工业项目的投资估算。此文结合煤矿基建投资估算的需要,探讨了投资指数估算法在煤矿的应用,提出了投资估算指数的分布规律及其分类研究。此论文在今年中国技术经济研究会组织的“全国技术经济高级人才研究班”上,被评为优秀论文,特推荐给读者,供研究参考。     

EPC项目投资估算模型构建及应用

在分析EPC项目投资估算存在问题的基础上,基于灰色关联模糊聚类构建EPC项目投资估算模型并进行应用分析,所得投资估算值与实际值误差为2.41%,为业主的投资估算提供参考。     

大型项目的费用控制与风险规避

文章讨论了大型项目的费用估算,包括生产规模系数估算、设备系数估算、初步估算和详细估算的方法及其应用,在此基础上提出了控制大型项目费用的结构化技术及其15个关键步骤。着重讨论了预留费和不可预见费的定义与差别,以及运用区间估计进行风险分析的方法和不可预见费的确定方法等。最后,文章讨论了通过消除、转移、降低风险影响程度而规避大型项目风险的方法。     

基于BP神经网络的住宅项目投资估算研究

在建设项目投资估算编制过程中,往往得不到具体的图纸信息,这样的信息残缺为建设单位编制和审定投资估算带来了困难,为后期招标控制价的编制提出了挑战。文章通过Python机器学习语法建立BP神经网络模型,按同一标准,选取508个随机住宅工程样本作为建筑工程数据来源,根据其建筑地上层数、地下层数、檐高、建筑面积四项指标对其建筑工程费、装饰工程费、安装工程费进行机器学习,最后通过A住宅的四项指标预测出该项目的相关费用,将预测数据与实际数据进行对比,证明该模型的有效性。文章将现代智能程序语言技术与传统行业实践所需相结合,探讨了基于人工智能语法解决工程实际问题的可行性,对未来行业发展和科技融合趋势做出了相应展望。     

Bias and Error in Mine Project Capital Cost Estimation

Previous analyses of small samples of mining projects have found that feasibility studies tend to underestimate the as-built capital costs of the project. Our review of 63 international mining and smelting projects confirms that as-built capital costs are, on average, 14% higher than as estimated in the bankable feasibility study. There is little attenuation over time of this bias in capital cost estimation, appearing to reflect an absence of learning on the part of the project sponsor or the consulting engineering firm. We argue that this persistence of bias is instead intentional and rational, driven by a scarcity of project financing and the need by project sponsors to inflate the project economics in a bid to secure financing. We find some empirical support for our contention. A second phase of the analysis examines estimation error. Roughly half of all projects' as-built capital costs fall outside of the expected ± 15% of the feasibility study capital cost estimate, even after allowing for intentional estimation bias. Cost overruns of 100% or more happen in roughly 1 out of 13 projects. Smaller projects have less estimation accuracy than large projects. Finally, our analysis of the cost overrun data reveals that a shifted lognormal probability distribution should be used when modeling mining project capital costs in a Monte Carlo analysis.     

投资项目风险估测和风险分析

本详细阐述了投资险管理的相关理论及项目可行性研究中的不确定分析与风险分析的主要区别，介绍了投资项目风险估测和风险分析的方法，重点讨论了概率法和调整折现率法两种风险分析方法。得出了借助风险分析手段可以使投资项目的风险控制在最小程度，使投资发挥出最大效益的结论。     

Technological Aspects of Project Selection

ABSTRACT Project selection is a process fraught with uncertainties. Technological uncertainty is one of the major contributors to the total risk and its reduction has been a subject of many attempts to provide the decision maker with better decision material.
In the following paper, we summarise three cases representing different technological contents of technology transfer projects. The possible technological changes and the sensitivity of project profitability to them is presented and analysed.
A methodological approach involving convolution of the technological risk into a conventional economical project analysis has been developed and is evaluated in this paper. In particular, the aspect of trimming the analysis procedure into an efficient routine is discussed.     

Technology analysis and R&D management

Technology analysis is a new field of knowledge aimed at creating a fuller understanding of the technological setting within which business operates. It provides a macro-discipline and is specifically aimed at improving the effectiveness of management of technology. As such it is of direct relevance to R&D management.
The essential tools of technology analysis constitute a set of analytical frameworks covering aspects such as: (i) a common approach to describing individual technological artefacts, (ii) a taxonomy of technologies, (iii) a classification of technological trends, (iv) a chart of technological limits, and (v) a socio-technical preference profile.
These frameworks help the R&D manager to dissect and debate typical R&D management problems such as: (i) selecting R&D projects, (ii) setting broad R&D objectives in the case of a given project and (iii) setting specific R&D goals to meet the said objectives. The frameworks also help the R&D manager to portray and present research achievements within a simple and intuitively appealing framework.     

输变电工程设计阶段造价控制的问题及对策

基于输变电工程设计和管理工作的实践,论述了输变电工程设计阶段造价控制存在的一些问题,如基础设计保守,包括勘测设计费、前期工程费在内的工程其他费计费标准执行中存在不足,管理工作中存在加大可研阶段投资估算的倾向等。结合电网项目工程实际,从技术、管理、体制等方面分析提出了控制造价的相关措施,认为立足于技术、管理、体制三位一体,应在设计阶段建立“方案合理、投资可控、造价节省”的工程造价控制体系。     

Defining technology and technological education: A crisis,or cause for celebration?

This paper originated from a two-year technological education teacher development project at the Faculty of Education, The University of Western Ontario. The authors searched for an understanding of technology and technological education through traditional scholarly means, i.e., a literature review, and through an action research venture that, it was thought, would reveal the parameters of ‘technology’. The paper, beyond helping to give the authors and the reader a better understanding of what it means to define an elusive concept, serves to give technology educators a conceptual starting point from which to build insight into the elements of their life's work. The function and form of the paper evolved from the project process. They [the function and form] were determined by the nature of and ambiguities associated with technology. The reader is invited, for example, to consider the historical, social, cultural, and philosophical dimensions of technology. Rather than draw parallels about technology from those diverse disciplines, a daunting task, the paper charts a terrain from which investigators who seek a definition of technology and a framework for the subsequent study of technology, might get their bearings. The paper includes approaches to defining technology, a literature review, a comparison of science and technology, and an epilogue. While a definition is offered as part of the epilogue, the larger purpose of the paper is to improve one's understanding of an ubiquitous phenomenon. The central question of the ongoing debate, in Ontario and elsewhere, about the role and direction of technological education, is inherent in the paper and in the mandate of the teacher development project. What is technology and where and in what form does it belong in the curriculum of the schools?     

Nurturing the designerly thinking and design capabilities of five-year-olds: technology in the new entrant classroom

Technology is one of eight learning areas of the New Zealand national curriculum. It aims to develop a broad technological literacy through students participating in programmes in which the practice of technological development is experienced, as is knowledge informing practice, and students gain an understanding of technology as a domain in its own right. In New Zealand children begin school at 5 years of age and this paper describes a classroom research project during which these students design and then construct a photo frame. The inducement for this development arose from students needing to safely transport home and then display a class photograph. This provided the opportunity for developing technological knowledge and skills within a real and relevant context—two key drivers when working with young students (Ministry of Education 2007) [MoE]. The results of this project suggest that teaching technology to five-year-old students is achievable and a valuable addition to other learning opportunities provided in the new entrant classroom. Strategies are suggested that will enable students to successfully achieve their goals whilst gaining a simple understanding of the technological process. By making good use of these it is possible to create a worthwhile and imaginatively challenging activity that reflects the essence of the technology education curriculum.     

项目文化建设的实施障碍及对策探讨

针对建筑业常见的利益冲突问题及对抗性的项目文化，提出了建设基于信任、合作的项目文化的重要意义。从项目文化磁场的角度分析了项目文化的形成机理，得出通过项目文化建设来加快制度建设与实施新型项目管理模式的可行性，并以此为基础，从项目核心文化建设、组织模式变革及信息技术应用、组织文化塑造等方面提出了项目文化建设的对策及建议，旨在促进传统项目管理模式的变革，提高项目管理水平。     

基于Revit土建工程算量三种模式的对比分析

近年来,国家陆续出台相关政策推进工程造价行业的转型升级,强化BIM技术在工程造价管理中的应用成为行业技术进步的重要方面。BIM技术在项目管理中的应用越来越广,其中在工程造价管理中的应用最为成熟。工程量计算是工程造价管理业务中最基础的工作,利用Revit建模进行工程量的计算可以缩减算量工作时间,提高工程计量的准确度与效率,实现对整个工程造价的实时、动态、精确的成本分析。基于BIM技术的工程算量已经成为必要的技术手段,其技术路径主要包括按照计算规则建模、利用Revit插件和利用算量插件提取构件几何尺寸等三种途径。通过对这三种不同技术路径BIM建模进行工程量计算的实证分析和比较,可以知道在Revit模型提取构件几何尺寸利用算量插件按规则算量可以直接利用BIM正向设计成果以提高工作效率和计算结果的精度,同时也便于实现“一模多用”的建筑信息化管理目标。