Scenarios in anthropology: reflections on possible futures of the Suriname Maroons

Traditional concern with social change requires anthropologists to analyze linkages between past, present, and possible future events. Anthropological methods can contribute to speculation about the future because they incorporate what most extrapolations and forecasts lack: (1) uncertainty and surprise, (2) people’s own mental models of the future, and (3) a detailed understanding of specific cultures and the diversity within these cultures. The author argues that Scenario Planning is a useful method that allows ethnographic data to be used for thinking about the future. Scenarios are stories about possible, alternative futures that incorporate human diversity and uncertainty. How Scenario Planning works as an analytical and policy tool is explained and then demonstrated with the example of forest peoples in Suriname, called Maroons. Qualitative data from anthropological fieldwork is used to reveal Maroon perspectives on the future; identify driving forces that might influence their future; and speculate about the different directions these forces may go. Two scenarios are presented and their implications discussed. The article concludes with reflections on the advantages and disadvantages of Scenario Planning as a method in anthropology, and on the contribution that anthropology can make to development policy that envisions and plans for alternative, surprising futures.     

Insurance and economic policy uncertainty

Just as the world has witnessed the increased importance of the insurance sector over the past few decades, it has also witnessed a sharp rise in risks and uncertainties. Surprisingly, studies analyzing the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and the insurance sector are almost non-existent. Another major limitation of insurance literature is the choice of methodology. Most studies on the insurance sector do not take into consideration issues of heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence, and are therefore subject to errors. To address the identified gaps, this research investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty on insurance premiums in a panel of 15 countries over the period 1998–2016 by employing heterogeneous panel estimation techniques with cross-sectional dependence. The Durbin-Hausman cointegration tests of Westerlund (2008) confirm that a long-run relationship exists between the variables. Findings from the error correction based panel estimations show that the insurance sector is not immune to the effects of economic policy uncertainty. Economic policy uncertainty raises insurance premiums both in the short and long run, although the long-run impact is greater than the short-run impact. In addition, economic policy uncertainty exerts a bigger influence on non-life insurance premium than on life insurance premium, indicating that the economic risks covered by non-life insurance are more sensitive to uncertainty than the mortality and longevity risks covered by life insurance. Our findings further show that national income, education, population, financial development and institutional quality all raise insurance premiums, while inflation lowers insurance premiums.     

A South African Success Story: Excellence in the Corporate Use of Capital and Its Social Benefits

South African companies have made great progress in improving corporate profitability since the nation became a full democracy in 1994. Using the “Cash Flow Return on Investment” (CFROI) method, the authors demonstrate that South African listed companies have been generating world‐beating levels of inflation‐adjusted return on capital over the past decade. But not all parts of the South African economy have benefited from this corporate success. Despite the impressive corporate returns, economic growth remains lackluster, constrained by confused labor and government policies. The authors recommend that South African policy makers aim to minimize uncertainty for the private sector by refraining from interventions with agendas that have little to do with expanding output or employment growth. Using terminology borrowed from Thomas Piketty's recent book, the two authors argue that what South Africa needs is not some way to limit investors' return on capital (r) but rather sound economic approaches to liberate growth (g). The authors would like to see the country's companies continue to generate high “r” while reinvesting their profits to produce more wealth‐creating “g.”     

Scenario projects in Japanese government: Strategic approaches for overcoming psychological and institutional barriers

Scenario planning in the public sector has significant differences from scenario planning in the corporate world. Scenario planning in the government not only tends to be focused on issues of higher complexity and significance to public policy, but also in comparison to people in the private business, public officials have fundamental psychological and institutional constraints in their scenario thinking. These constraints make it difficult for them to contemplate multiple ‘untidy’ futures and imagine the possibility of policy failure: skills which are essential for successful scenario projects. Based on specific characteristics of scenario planning in the Japanese government, this paper contributes on better understanding the challenges and strategic solutions in providing more successful scenario planning in the public sector. Specifically, this paper argues that possible solutions in overcoming these constraints may be to shake public bureaucrats out of their thinking by providing free and open venues of conversation and more importantly through ‘derailment’ exercises.     

Privatized Utilities and the 'Third Way'

The Government is planning new regulations to ensure that utility companies 'reflect a sense of social responsibility'. Their intention to overlay social objectives on the regulatory frameworks inspired by free market economics can be seen as an attempt to find a 'Third Way' policy for the utilities. Neoliberals would argue that social policy has no place in the privatized utility sector, which is now well established. Interference in regulatory processes to achieve social objectives is likely to be counter-productive by distorting prices and inhibiting the incentive system designed to achieve efficiencies. Rather than requiring the companies to act as instruments of government policy, the Government could achieve its social objectives through subsidies, or through the social security system, leaving the regulatory framework to operate unfettered.     

The Impact of the Introduction of the Euro on Foreign Exchange Risk Management in UK Multinational Companies

One of the arguments in favour of the euro is that it will eliminate foreign exchange risk for companies in the euro‐zone. There could also be benefits for companies outside this zone, although their currency risk with the euro remains. This paper considers this, by examining the effect of the euro on the currency risk management of UK multinational companies (MNCs). Using the responses from a questionnaire and interviews we found that the euro, which is being widely used in UK MNCs, is generally favoured due to reductions in exchange uncertainty and costs of managing currency risk. Nonetheless, contrary to what would theoretically be expected, there was no exact relationship in the reduction in hedging activity accompanied by this reduction in risk. The majority of MNCs stated that their hedging activities would remain unchanged. The capacity of MNCs to benefit from reductions in risk and hedging depend on the proportion of non‐UK European trade, the industry sector and the ability to transfer risk down the supply chain. Finally, despite the reductions in currency exposure experienced by the majority of companies the euro will not encourage UK MNCs to expand international trade.     

Banking Products: You <Emphasis Type="Italic">Can</Emphasis> Take Them with You,So Why Don’t You?

Policymakers around the world call for more competition in the banking sector. One prerequisite to achieving this is customer mobility. Despite its policy relevance, surprisingly little is known about consumers’ bank switching behaviour. We show that the principal reasons to stay at one’s bank are a good bank-customer relationship, practical barriers, and the perception that there is not much benefit in switching. Moreover, we find that the reported propensity to switch varies across banking products. For the main current and savings accounts, this propensity is most strongly related to the bank-customer relationship, while for mortgage loans it is especially linked to switching experience. These findings have important implications for antitrust policy; they provide an argument against using a cluster-based legal standard for the analysis of competition and in favour of a disaggregated approach. Regarding the effectiveness of hypothetical policy initiatives to lower switching barriers, we find that the reported switching propensity with current accounts is higher in the case of account number portability, while more knowledge of the existing switching service has no significant effect. Lastly, scenario analysis shows that a policy of allowing new foreign banks to enter the savings market is less promising for enhancing mobility than a policy that increases the number of domestic players.     

Female investors in the first english and Welsh commercial joint-stock banks

The 1826 Banking Act was passed to strengthen the banking sector. It allowed the establishment of joint-stock banks in England and Wales outside a 65-mile radius of Charing Cross, London. Institutions formed under this legislation could have an unrestricted number of partners but they did not enjoy the privilege of limited liability. This article examines the extent of female investors in joint-stock banks formed under the 1826 Act. Analysis of shareholdings found that female investors were in a minority yet their holdings in aggregate increased over time. They were primarily widows and spinsters, who collectively became significant in the emerging national financial securities market.     

Oil price shocks,policy uncertainty,and stock returns of oil and gas corporations

This paper investigates the effects of oil price shocks and economic policy uncertainty on the stock returns of oil and gas companies. We find that an oil demand-side shock has a positive effect on the return of oil and gas companies on average, whereas shocks to policy uncertainty have a negative effect on the return. Historical decomposition shows that the effects of oil shocks on the stock return are amplified by the endogenous policy uncertainty responses. These results are consistent with those for major integrated oil and gas companies. The return responses, however, show heterogeneous effects of structural shocks on upstream, midstream, and downstream oil and gas companies, suggesting that a well-diversified portfolio is obtainable.     

Economic policy uncertainty and executive turnover

This paper examines whether economic uncertainty increases executive turnover. The negative perception perspective and business change theory suggest that executives are more likely to leave their jobs during periods of corporate distress. However, the additive effects of internal and external risk are thought to prompt firms to carefully consider executive turnover, thereby reducing the likelihood of executive changes. Based on the literature, we propose a check-and-balance hypothesis for the relationship between external uncertainty and executive change, according to which the optimal superposition of the internal and external risks stemming from increased external uncertainty would be to avoid a wave of executive departures. Using a sample of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2019 and the China economic policy uncertainty index of Baker et al. (2013), we examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty on executive turnover and our results support the check-and-balance hypothesis. Our findings enhance our understanding of how economic policy uncertainty affects executive turnover, and enrich the literature on corporate risk management and strategic management.     

Policy uncertainty,the use of derivatives: Evidence from U.S. bank holdingcompanies (BHCs)

We explore the link between bank holding companies’ hedging in derivatives and economic policy uncertainty using a newspaper-based index of policy uncertainty. Interestingly, we find that bank holding companies use derivatives less intensively in states where policy uncertainty is high (they hedge against homogenous (tradable) risk only); instead, they allocate their risk exposure via lending (thus increasing their credit risk). This finding is robust to different combinations of data samples, including the usage of only fourth quarter data, annual data, excluding bank mergers and acquisitions, and the results are robust to sample selection.     

The information transfer effects of political connections on mitigating policy uncertainty: Evidence from China

A key aspect of Chinese-style institutions is that the growth of the economy can be severely restricted by the adjustment and implementation of policy, leading to serious uncertainty in business practices. This paper investigates whether political connections help private firms obtain policy information ahead of public disclosure that would allow them to hedge against policy uncertainty. Using the quarterly data on non-financial private listed companies over 2007:Q1–2017:Q4, we find that the negative effect of policy uncertainty on fixed-asset investment is lower in politically connected firms than in non-connected firms, especially in industries with low asset reversibility and regions with a high degree of marketization. Further, a positive mitigation of policy uncertainty exists in firms whose top executives served as officials rather than deputies, and higher administrative as well as finance-related political connections show more information advantage. In addition, robust evidence is provided that controls the impacts of political connections on financing constraints, business performance and policy burdens, overcoming potential endogeneity, and the cash-holdings perspective. Our findings suggest that political connections are conducive to mitigate information asymmetry between private firms and policymakers in China.     

Assessing the validity of the Delphi technique

Forecasting is an essential factor in policy formulation and planning. It helps determine the direction of future actions. While a number of forecasting techniques are utilized to forecast the future, it is important to know just how valid those forecasting techniques can be. The Delphi technique has been called the ‘cornerstone of futures research’. This study reports the results of the assessment of the accuracy of the forecasts derived from the Delphi technique. Twenty-five experts in the communication field assessed 24 trends and 17 events in the state of Hawaii as of 1991. The expert assessments were then compared with the forecasts made by utilizing the Delphi technique 16 years earlier. The results showed that the trend forecasts were significantly correlated with the trend assessment. They also showed that the Delphi technique had accurately forecast approximately half the events that could be evaluated as of 1991. Results from this study lend support to the use of the Delphi technique in long-range forecasting and reveal some interesting findings in forecasting the developments in communication in Hawaii.     

Stock Market Reaction to Monetary Policy: An Event Study Analysis of the Brazilian Case

This article examines the relationship between the monetary policy implemented by the Central Bank of Brazil and the stock market. We implement event study analysis and analyze the effect of the anticipated and unanticipated components of monetary policy decisions on the returns of the IBOVESPA index and 53 stocks. We find that monetary policy has a significant effect on the stock market, but is only responsible for a small proportion of market variation. The analysis at the sector level with expected returns identifies that the financial sector is the most affected by this policy, whereas with excess returns only industrial goods are significantly affected. Moreover, individual assets respond in a rather heterogeneous fashion to monetary policy; however, when we look at excess returns, we identify a reduction in the intensity and in the number of companies impacted by monetary policy. Finally, the monetary shock is explained by unanticipated variations in the unemployment rate, in the Industrial Production Index, in the General Market Price Index, and in the Broad Consumer Price Index.     

Noise

The effects of noise on the world, and on our views of the world, are profound. Noise in the sense of a large number of small events is often a causal factor much more powerful than a small number of large events can be. Noise makes trading in financial markets possible, and thus allows us to observe prices for financial assets. Noise causes markets to be somewhat inefficient, but often prevents us from taking advantage of inefficiencies. Noise in the form of uncertainty about future tastes and technology by sector causes business cycles, and makes them highly resistant to improvement through government intervention. Noise in the form of expectations that need not follow rational rules causes inflation to be what it is, at least in the absence of a gold standard or fixed exchange rates. Noise in the form of uncertainty about what relative prices would be with other exchange rates makes us think incorrectly that changes in exchange rates or inflation rates cause changes in trade or investment flows or economic activity. Most generally, noise makes it very difficult to test either practical or academic theories about the way that financial or economic markets work. We are forced to act largely in the dark.     

The impact of co-jumps in the oil sector

We study the dynamics of the oil sector using a new multivariate stochastic volatility model with a structure of common factors subjected to jumps in mean and conditional variance. This model contributes to the literature allowing the estimation of spillover effects between assets in a multivariate framework through joint jumps (co-jumps), identifying the permanent and transitory effects through a structure defined by Bernoulli processes. The jump structure introduced in the article can be interpreted as a regime-switching model with an endogenous number of states, avoiding the difficulties associated with models with a fixed number of regimes. We apply the model to oil prices and stock prices of integrated oil companies. The jump structure allows dating the relevant events in the oil sector in the period 2000–2019. The period analyzed encompasses important events in the oil market such as the price escalation in 2008 and the falling prices in 2014. We also apply the model to estimate risk management measures and portfolio allocation and perform a comparison with other multivariate models of conditional volatility, showing the good properties of the model in these applications.     

经济不确定性对我国上市公司研发投入同群效应的影响

我国A股上市公司研发投入会受到同群企业研发投资行为的正向影响,经济的不确定性会对上市公司的研发投入产生显著的抑制作用,这是由于企业对政策导向把握不准确,从而实施相对稳健的投资策略导致的.经济的不确定性会加剧上市公司研发投入的同群效应,同行业的企业更倾向于模仿行业中的领导企业,非国有企业更倾向于模仿行业中的国有企业.因此...     

经济政策不确定性与企业杠杆率

本文从政策不确定性的视角探讨中国经济转型过程中企业杠杆率变动背后的逻辑。在基于2002—2016年A股上市公司的季度数据描述企业杠杆率结构性变化的经验事实以及理论分析的基础上,运用Baker et al. (2016) 构建的经济政策不确定性指数实证分析政策不确定性与企业杠杆率之间的关系。结果表明,经济政策不确定性对企业杠杆率具有显著的负向影响;这一负向效应在短期负债率、民营、小规模和制造业企业更为明显。进一步考虑经济转型的扩展分析发现,政策不确定性对企业杠杆率的负向影响会随着地区市场化水平的提高、民营化改革的推进和对外开放度的扩大而显著降低。本文的研究对深入理解企业杠杆率变化背后的逻辑以及科学地制定供给侧结构性改革相关政策具有现实意义。     

Political/Policy Uncertainty,Corporate Disclosure,and Information Asymmetry*

Political/policy uncertainty causes significant disruption to capital markets around the world. This review synthesizes recent studies on this topic and provides suggestions for future research in this fast-growing area. Specifically, this review focuses on three areas of research: (i) the measurement of political/policy uncertainty, (ii) the impact of political/policy uncertainty on financial analysts' forecasts, and (iii) the impact of political/policy uncertainty on corporate disclosure. We find that political/policy uncertainty affects both corporate disclosures and financial analysts' forecasts and that these effects interact with information asymmetry in capital markets. Furthermore, we find that companies strategically change their disclosure practices during periods of heightened political/policy uncertainty.