Market structure and market shares in the car industry

This paper examines empirically the impact of foreign competition, market structure and barriers to entry on the trade performance in the car industry. The pattern of international trade and structural characteristics of different markets are studied using OECD car industry data. By estimating fixed-effect regressions for major car producing countries, the results reveal that, for most countries, the market shares of exporters depend on cross-country differences in relative unit labor costs, differences in income levels, and differences in market structure.     

An empirical analysis of market performance in the car industry

This article focuses on the determinants of market performance in the car industry. Trade and market patterns are studied using firm-level international data. Econometric models are developed and evaluated for a sample of firms from the major producing countries for the period 1970–1985. Among the factors responsible for the market shares of the different firms are international differences in unit labor costs, income levels, the European Community (EC) and locally based production scales, and transaction costs in the form of trade barriers.     

International Dependency and Economic Fluctuations in East Asian NIEs

Abstract

This paper investigates the sources of economic fluctuations in the four Asian newly industrialized economies (NIEs), namely Hong Kong, Republic of Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. As small open economies, their macro-economic development is highly dependent on technology as well as markets of large countries. Using the common trends model, we examine the impacts of external supply shock, internal supply shock and trade shock on the key national macro-economic variables of these four economies, i.e. output, consumption, investment, export and import. Our empirical evidence suggests that supply-side disturbances, both the country-specific supply shocks and international supply shocks explain the bulk of fluctuations in output.     

福建省外贸行业供给侧改革效应分析

供给侧改革正式提出以来,全国各地掀起了供给侧改革的热潮,它成为经济发展过程中的焦点。经过几年的改革发展,供给侧改革在运行中颇有成效,福建省作为改革开放的前沿省份,也取得了明显的改革效果。而外贸行业作为福建省的主要行业之一,增速相较于福建省的GDP来说是比较平缓的。为了了解供给侧改革为福建省外贸行业的发展带来怎样的效应,采用巴拉萨模型和逐步回归法进行实证分析,发现:供给侧改革引起的是贸易转移效应;在进出口贸易结构改革中,一般贸易、进料加工贸易、保税监管场所进出境货物、海关特殊监管区域物流货物和设备、来料加工装配贸易的改革效应较为突出;而在外资的投资结构方面,服务业与工业是外商直接投资结构性改革的重要影响因素。     

Determinants of bilateral trade: evidence from ASEAN+3

In this research, we investigate the determinants of international trade, employing a dataset of bilateral trade and economics characteristics in the ASEAN+3 countries. We include a large number of independent variables that potentially drive international trade. We also use various standard gravity model variables to maintain consistency with the current literature. The results provide some important insights into the determinants of bilateral trade and offer policy implications regarding the promotion of international trade for governments worldwide. In particular, we find that output asymmetry between countries positively explains bilateral trade. Moreover, the findings suggest that making use of comparative advantage by differentiating the export product structure is important in promoting international trade. We do not find a consistent impact from bilateral exchange rate volatility on bilateral trade. This result points to the importance of providing opportunities for the hedging of currency uncertainty to avoid its adverse effects on trade. The results for other standard gravity model variables are consistent with the results of previous theoretical and empirical research.     

Understanding China's move into Africa: an empirical analysis

An important new issue on the international scene is the upsurge in market and non-market South–South relations. The aim of this paper is to understand the dynamics that lie behind the recent Chinese move into Africa by empirically exploring the determinants of Sino-African relationships. In order to have a comprehensive picture, the analysis takes into consideration the main channels of commercial and political interactions: outward foreign direct investment (OFDI), trade and aid (international economic cooperation). The empirical analysis utilises a panel data set, from 1998 to 2005, for 43 African countries. The econometric estimates for three simultaneous equations are based on an instrumental variables method. Results show that the Chinese move into Africa is driven by strategic interaction among the three channels (FDI, trade and economic cooperation) as well as by pull factors, i.e. the characteristics of the receiving countries in terms of natural resource endowments and their market potential.     

Government Purchases and the Real Exchange Rate

Recent empirical research documents that an exogenous rise in government purchases in a given country triggers a persistent depreciation of its real exchange rate—which raises an important puzzle, as standard macro models predict an appreciation of the real exchange rate. This paper presents a simple model with limited international risk sharing that can account for the empirical real exchange rate response. When faced with a country-specific rise in government purchases, local households experience a negative wealth effect; they thus work harder, and domestic output increases. Under balanced trade (financial autarky) this supply-side effect is so strong that the terms of trade worsen, and the real exchange rate depreciates. In a bonds-only economy, an increase in government purchases triggers a real exchange rate depreciation, if the rise in government purchases is sufficiently persistent and/or labor supply is highly elastic.     

Asian Economic Community: intra-community macro-and-micro-economic parameters

In the absence of economic regionalization, the paradigm of globalization is likely to be operationally dysfunctional. In the contemporary world economy, a small subset of sovereign nation state economies commands hugely much larger shares of world output and trade while an overwhelmingly large number of such sovereign economies has their respective shares of world output and trade rather very marginal. Regionalization can help regional economic unions/communities enjoy competitive shares of world output and trade and thus become competitive actors in the inter-regional competitive world market, contributing to the success of globalism. Inadequacy of the post-WWII infrastructure for the global free market economy and the success of EU and the Euro-regime are noted. The 21-member APEC has been exposed to the great geographical divide of the Pacific Ocean, underscoring the fact that the divide of the Atlantic Ocean made the map of Europe differentiated from the Americas. Lessons from EU and the Euro-regime are noted. Based on an extensive empirical analyses of relative shares of world output and trade, the case for Asian Economic Community (AEC) has been presented. The model of 3 plus 5, three economies in Northeast Asia and five in Southeast Asia, may be the step one for the AEC.     

出口产品升级和市场多元化能够缓解我国贸易摩擦吗?

长期以来,中国以低附加值的劳动密集型产品大量出口且出口市场高度集中,已被理论和实践部门认为是促成中国成为全球贸易摩擦最大受害国的主要原因。但是本文利用泊松回归模型的计量结果揭示:中国出口产品升级和出口市场多元化不仅未能有效缓解中国遭遇的贸易摩擦,反而使之加剧;FDI的大量利用和我国深度融入国际产品内分工体系对我国遭遇贸易摩擦具有显著促成作用。据此,本文认为不能将中国出口产品遭遇的贸易摩擦简单归咎于附加值过低和市场集中度过高。我们应从国际分工演进和中国比较优势角度出发,以正常的心态看待中国面临的贸易摩擦,通过加强政府间沟通、民间游说、国际舆论宣传等措施加以缓解,以免造成政策偏差,妨碍我国开放型经济发展。     

国际贸易机制对国内武装冲突影响的研究——基于回归断点设计的数量分析(1946-2009年)

国际机制不仅影响国家行为体,也影响国家层面之下的非国家行为体,并作用于两类行为体间的互动。作为最为成熟也是影响范围最为广泛的国际机制之一,国际贸易机制一方面通过机制功能作用于国内政治中的国家行为体与非国家行为体,另一方面施加影响于贸易议题从而刺激国内各行为体之间的互动。无论是机制还是贸易都与国际和平战争研究紧密相关,如"贸易和平论"与"国际制度和平论"。基于国际原因与国内产出之间的关系,国际贸易机制如何影响国内政治,特别是影响国内冲突的爆发风险?通过回归断点设计(RDD)与Logit回归分析,1946-2009年之间的国际贸易机制(关贸总协定/世界贸易组织)数据及国内武装冲突数据显示,关贸总协定/世界贸易组织成员资格的确能够在整体上显著降低国内武装冲突发生的可能性;但是,在分别控制经济因素、政治因素、社会因素、贸易因素和外部因素之后,实证结果显示国际贸易机制对各国国内冲突风险实际上是一种条件性的混合影响。     

创意产品贸易决定因素及对双边总贸易的影响

近年来,创意产品贸易取得了史无前例的发展,成为全球贸易的新增长点。本文以标准的垄断竞争模型为基础,构建了分析创意产品贸易决定因素及其对双边总贸易影响的计量方程,并采用PPML估计法进行实证分析。结果表明,创意产品贸易具有偏好"传染性",进而对后期创意产品贸易具有促进作用;而创意产品贸易发展对双边总贸易发展也具有明显的带动作用。据此本文认为,在后危机时代短期内外需持续低迷的情况下,大力发展中国创意产品出口贸易并提升其国际竞争力,不失为稳外需、保出口增长的有效措施之一。     

国际贸易、技术溢出和利益分配失衡

本文从价值生产角度出发,构建了国际贸易利益失衡分配框架下的技术溢出理论模型,利用我国与主要贸易伙伴1990～2009年的数据,实证分析检验国外技术溢出与国际贸易利益失衡分配的变动关系。实证研究发现:国内研发支出能够减小我国同主要贸易伙伴单位美元包含的劳动时间差距,改善我国同主要贸易伙伴间贸易利益分配失衡状态,而且改善程度大于通过进口方式吸收国外技术溢出获得的技术进步;通过进口方式获得的国外有效技术溢出也可以缩小我国与主要贸易伙伴之间的劳动时间差距,然而其系数不显著;通过出口方式获得的国外有效技术溢出值使得我国与贸易伙伴之间的劳动时间差距反而增大。加入人力资本后,这3个变量系数符号没有发生变化,但是这3个变量的系数都变小。脉冲响应函数的结果也佐证了上述结论。     

A Multi-Scale System of Macroeconometric Models: the Inforum Approach

The recent global crisis affected output, but the decline in international trade was even sharper, almost twice as big, so that in the literature it is referred as the Great Trade Collapse. Trade flows have transmitted the crisis through the world economy where international trade runs through much more intricate networks than in the past, involving a greater number of countries, firms, and products. All these relevant economic issues require a clear understanding of the possible positive and negative effects not only on the economy as a whole and on aggregate macroeconomic variables but especially on specific industries and commodities. This type of quantitative analysis can be pursued with several analytical tools and data. Macroeconometric models have a long-standing and remarkable tradition as a tool for analyzing the international transmission mechanism of shocks and policies and for forecasting their effects. In this paper, we present the INFORUM international linking system of models that includes a Bilateral Trade Model (BTM) and a set of multisectoral country models. The INFORUM international system of models is characterised by a detailed industry and commodity classification and the use of econometric equations for estimating the behaviour of economic variables and of bilateral import shares. Moreover, when the complete international system of models is linked through the bilateral trade model, simulation results include feedback effects from country models to all economies in the system through bilateral trade flows. Overall, this multi-scale system of models captures the heterogeneity across industries and countries and produces significant information for economic policy design.     

Transaction Costs and Exchange: Nine Case Studies of Australian and Malaysian Firms

This paper justifies theoretically and empirically the diversification behaviour of an importing firm when it chooses the mixture of potentially differentiated products of its major input under price uncertainty. The paper investigates an equilibrium relationship among three key explanatory variables, which are the expected price, the systematic risk of price, and monopolistic market power of the suppliers in the market. The theoretical section shows that there exists a conflict between the risk–diversification effect and the agent's preference over certain products when the importer chooses the vector of optimal quantity shares. The latter effect may disturb or even dominate the former, which can be represented in an equilibrium relationship similar to the framework of the CAPM. As an empirical application, the Chinese wheat import market is examined and analysed to answer the questions raised by the basic statistics.
JEL classification : F 12; F 14; L 22     

中国及上海服务贸易国际竞争力研究

本文总结了中国及上海服务贸易的发展现状,通过对国际市场占有率、服务贸易竞争优势指数、显示比较优势指数、显示性竞争优势指数等指标的测算,探讨了中国及上海服务贸易的国际竞争力。另外,本文对上海服务贸易的影响因素进行了实证分析,探讨了当前服务贸易国际竞争力低下的原因,并在此基础上提出若干对策建议。     

刍议碳排放交易市场的构成及发展展望

碳交易市场的建设和完善是国际气候问题解决方案的基础和市场保障。本文以国际碳交易市场的发展为分析对象,依次分析了这个特殊的无形产品市场的供给方、需求方、交易商品、交易货币、市场的法律依据和运行机制以及最新发展动态等内容,并对与国际碳交易市场相关的清洁发展机制实施有效性、自发市场问题以及总量限额必要性问题进行了分析;最后,本文也针对目前中国碳交易市场最新发展状况提出相关政策建议,指出当务之急要解决的三个问题是碳汇产品定价方式、各级碳交易市场的兼容性以及试点企业的选择问题。     

Fishing in the same pool: Export strengths and competitiveness of China and Central,Eastern and Southeastern Europe at the EU-15 market

We investigate the impact of the emergence of China as a global competitor on the trade performance of Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries at the EU-15 market, i.e. the fifteen EU members as of 1995. The main aim of the paper is thus to challenge the common view that China crowds out exporters from European markets. The paper takes a comprehensive approach in terms of empirical methods and data. We analyze export growth, export market shares, extensive and intensive margins and the dynamics in the number of joint trade links (Dynamic Trade Link Analysis), applying highly disaggregated data at the 6-digit HS level over the period 1995–2010. We show that the most contested markets are those for capital goods and transport equipment, product categories where both regions have gained market shares and comparative advantage. We show that the number of trade links at the product level where both regions are active has increased substantially, indicating intensified competition. At the same time hardly any trade links were lost, which points against cut-throat competition between CESEE and China. The decomposition of export growth along the extensive versus the intensive margin shows that in line with the literature, the deepening of already existing trade relationships (i.e. the intensive margin) contributed most strongly to export growth in both regions, whereas the contribution of new trade links (i.e. the extensive margin) had only a minor contribution, apart from the instance of EU accession, which boosted the extensive margin considerably. We further decompose intensive margin growth into demand related structural effects and a supplier related competitiveness effect. Both the CESEE region and China successfully intensified their trade linkages above all as a result of their outstanding competitiveness as shown by the econometric shift-share analysis. While this suggests that both regions pursue a suitable export strategy, further diversification of production towards promising new industries and markets will become increasingly crucial for both, especially in face of projected slower EU-15 market growth in the longer run.     

Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade

The purpose of this note is to show that a positive effect of exchange rate volatility on export production has a theoretical basis. The key to this claim is that, as the exchange rate volatility increases, so does the value of the real option to export to the world market. Higher volatility increases the potential gains from trade. This may explain part of the mixed empirical findings regarding the effects of exchange rate risk on international trade.     

国际贸易产品污染转移的理论研究

各国国际分工、产业结构、能源利用效率以及贸易结构等方面的差异,必然造成国际贸易过程中存在污染排放转移问题。本文首先对国外学者对国际贸易产品污染转移的相关理论和实证研究文献进行了梳理,其次对学者对中国贸易品的污染转移研究文献进行总结。     

Optimal currency shares in international reserves: The impact of the euro and the prospects for the dollar

Foreign exchange reserve accumulation has risen dramatically in recent years. The introduction of the euro, greater liquidity in other major currencies, and the rising current account deficits and external debt of the United States have increased the pressure on central banks to diversify away from the US dollar. A major portfolio shift would significantly affect exchange rates and the status of the dollar as the dominant international currency. We develop a dynamic mean-variance optimization framework with portfolio rebalancing costs to estimate optimal portfolio weights among the main international currencies. Making various assumptions on expected currency returns and the variance–covariance structure, we assess how the euro has changed this allocation. We then perform simulations for the optimal currency allocations of four large emerging market countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China), adding constraints that reflect a central bank's desire to hold a sizable portion of its portfolio in the currencies of its peg, its foreign debt and its international trade. Our main results are: (i) The optimizer can match the large share of the US dollar in reserves, when the dollar is the reference (risk-free) currency. (ii) The optimum portfolios show a much lower weight for the euro than is observed. This suggests that the euro may already enjoy an enhanced role as an international reserve currency (“punching above its weight”). (iii) Growth in issuance of euro-denominated securities, a rise in euro zone trade with key emerging markets, and increased use of the euro as a currency peg, would all work towards raising the optimal euro shares, with the last factor being quantitatively the most important. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 508–547.