The deregulation of international trucking in the European Union: form and effect

We describe the regulatory regime under which international trucking operated in Western Europe until the mid-1980s, the deregulatory process that followed, and the effect of this deregulation. We find that deregulation had a large positive effect on the growth of international trucking. We also find that shippers shifted toward more outsourcing of their trucking needs, but this occurred to an even greater extent in local and national road transport. We conclude that other factors beside the deregulation of international trucking affected the organization of the industry at the time. Finally, despite concerns voiced by member countries, we find no evidence that deregulation disproportionately favored carriers of countries that were initially more (or less) involved in international trucking, nor that it has favored low-wage countries.      

The impact of financial regulation on current account balances

Both global imbalances and financial market deregulation feature prominently among the potential causes of the global financial crisis, but they have been largely discussed separately. In this paper, we take a different angle and investigate the relationship between financial market regulation and current account balances, an area for which limited empirical evidence exists. We use a panel of countries over the period 1980–2010 and employ a novel empirical approach which allows us to simultaneously account for model uncertainty, current account persistence and unobserved heterogeneity. We find robust evidence that financial market regulations affect current account balances and that different aspects of these regulations can have opposing effects on the current account. In particular we find that easing bank entry barriers is negatively associated with the current account balance. In contrast, bank privatization and securities market deregulation tend to raise current account balances. Our results also highlight the importance to control for persistence and unobserved heterogeneity. Once we control for these factors, we find robust evidence for a wide range of current account theories in contrast to previous studies accounting for model uncertainty.     

Deregulation and the competitive fringe: Owner-operators in the trucking industry

This paper assesses the direct and indirect effects of regulatory reform in the trucking industry on the employment of owner-operators. We utilize a probit estimation form derived from driver utility functions to estimate the change in the probability that a truck driver is an owner-operator following deregulation.We find that a representative driver with mean characteristics is 155.6 percent more likely to choose employment as an owner-operator in the deregulated environment. Thirty-six percentage points of this increase is due to the indirect effects of deregulation, which operate primarily through changes in wage differentials and unionization. The direct effect of deregulation accounts for a 120% increase in the probability of a driver choosing employment as an owner-operator.We are especially grateful to David Besanko, Ronald Braeutigam, Robert Drago, and John Heywood for insightful comments. For helpful discussions, we thank Marcus Alexis, Aaron Gellman, Leon Moses, Robert Porter, Ian Savage, Mark Shanley, Carol Simon, Paul Wolfson, and Christopher Udry. For their comments on an earlier draft, we thank Thomas Corsi, Curtis Grimm, and Theodore Keeler. We are grateful for information sent to us by Leon Witconis ofOwner Operator Magazine and William A. Coop ofRoad King Magazine. We acknowledge financial support from the National Science Foundation, Grant # SES-9111131 and from the Transportation Center of Northwestern University. We also thank two anonymous referees for their efforts in helping us to improve this paper.     

产权管制放松与制度绩效变迁——来自广东经济非均衡转轨的证据

过去大量的研究强调政策、区域、禀赋等对广东经济转轨绩效的影响,论文从产权管制放松的角度出发,构建了一个简单的博弈论模型,旨在分析广东政府放松对资源配置权利的管制对经济转轨产生的制度效应。研究发现,广东各级地方政府放松对资源配置权利的管制,大幅节约了租金耗散,并衍生出更多给予经济个体发挥比较优势的获利空间,扩展了市场范围,从而促进了地区经济均衡转轨。论文对于理解广东经济转轨问题提供了一个新的视角和框架,它尤其有助于揭示产权管制放松与经济绩效变迁二者之间的内在机理和制度逻辑。     

STRUCTURAL SHIFTS IN UK UNEMPLOYMENT 1979–2005: THE TWIN IMPACTS OF FINANCIAL DEREGULATION AND COMPUTERIZATION

This paper analyses UK unemployment in the period 1979–2005. Structural breaks are identified endogenously and they coincide with key institutional changes associated with financial deregulation and computerization in the New Economy. A vector error correction model is estimated and it confirms that computerization and financial deregulation have had counteracting impacts on UK unemployment. The results are consistent with three hypotheses: technological advances associated with computerization have moderated inflationary struggles between firms and insiders by increasing total factor productivity; financial deregulation has generated financial fragility fostering rises in unemployment; financial deregulation and computerization together have been associated with shifts from manufacturing towards services, fostering structural unemployment.     

HIGHWAY SAFETY AND THE 65-mph SPEED LIMIT

A Federal Highway Bill was enacted in 1987 in response to many state governments' increasing concerns that the 55-mph national maximum speed limit was unduly restrictive. The bill permitted states to raise the maximum speed limit to 65 mph on most rural interstate highways, which historically have been the safest. The state of Indiana reacted promptly to the enabling legislation by raising the maximum speed limit on its rural interstate highways to 65 mph as of June 1, 1987. This paper uses cross-section/time-series data to estimate a model of highway safety. The primary empirical finding is that the higher speed limit on rural interstates has increased the incidence of total and injury interstate accidents but not of fatal interstate accidents. However, for the state as a whole, the relaxed speed limit has reduced total and injury accidents with no effect on fatal accidents. This indicates that the impact of speed limit legislation on non-interstate roads has more than offset its effect on interstate highways.     

北京市区域生产总值与公路道路设施建设的关系——基于分布滞后模型

利用Almon方法,建立分布滞后回归模型,对北京市公路里程和GRDP两个经济指标的关系进行了研究,旨在考察道路建设对北京市GRPD的影响。研究表明,公路道路建设对北京区域经济发展具有长期持续的拉动作用。最后,科学推算出北京市公路道路的平均使用年限为22年。     

Employment and Productivity Growth in Europe and North America: The Impact of Labor Market Institutions

In this paper, we examine long-run employment and productivity growth in the major economies of North America and Europe from 1960 to the early 1990s. We develop a model in which output growth is determined by the growth of aggregate demand, and the relative contributions of employment and productivity growth to the growth of output depend on country specific labor market institutions. We find that institutions that promote collective bargaining, employment security and social protection have roughly equal and opposite effects on employment growth (negative) and productivity growth (positive), giving rise to an inverse relationship between these variables. The welfare implications of this finding are that labor market deregulation could result in more work and greater inequality and insecurity for workers, without significantly increasing the rate of economic growth.     

Social trust,institutional and political constraints on the executive and deregulation of markets

Social trust is frequently claimed to be conducive for economic reforms. Likewise, the scope of policy liberalization is influenced by the political power structure as manifested in institutional and political constraints on the executive (IPCE). However, social trust and IPCE are possibly intertwined in their effects on economic liberalization. This paper empirically explores the relationship between social trust, IPCE and the scope of economic deregulation as measured by the first difference in the regulation subindex of the Economic Freedom of the World index. The results provide evidence in favor of a positive association of social trust with deregulation and of a negative association between institutional or partisan veto-points and deregulation. Yet, according to our analysis IPCE are an obstacle for economic deregulation only in relatively low trusting environments and social trust unfolds a particular strength as driver of deregulation with increasing levels of IPCE.     

放松规制对垄断产业收入影响的理论与实证研究

近年来,垄断产业的高收入问题引起了社会各界的广泛关注.放松规制是垄断产业改革的重要方向.本文建立了委托代理模型分析放松规制对垄断产业收入的影响,并利用OECD主要国家的截面数据进行实证研究,其结果表明,放松规制会降低垄断产业的收入,有效降低我国基尼系数,有利于缓解收入分配不均的现象.     

对外贸易、金融改革和经济增长:来自中国的证据

本文根据技术扩散模型阐释,中国的技术进步取决于它对先进技术的吸收能力和可吸收的世界先进技术集合的乘积。金融改革通过消除经济扭曲提升我国的吸收能力。如果国际先进技术通过对外贸易扩散到中国,那么对外贸易和金融改革在增长中就存在相互促进的作用。利用中国改革开放后的数据,我们没有发现对外贸易(出口或进出口)和金融改革在促进经济增长中有显著的互补作用。该结论在控制条件收敛、其他经济增长因素、分省和时间效应后成立,并在解决贸易的内生性后仍然稳健。将该结论和我们已发现的金融改革和外商直接投资在促进经济增长中有显著的互补作用的结果相对照,可见,与国际贸易相比,国际先进技术更可能通过外商直接投资扩散到中国。     

Deregulation,Mergers, and Employment in the Railroad Industry

Since 1978, there have been dramatic changes in the railroad industry with partial deregulation, a massive consolidation of firms, a reduction in the size of the rail network, and a dramatic reduction in employment. In this paper, we focus on the effects of deregulation, a change in the traffic characteristics, miles of road, and consolidation, on employment by Class I railroads. We develop and estimate a model that allows these effects to be identified, finding that the largest employment declines emanate from the direct effect of partial deregulation, while smaller, but still large, employment declines emanate from mergers and changes in traffic mix.     

Long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics between risk exposure and highway safety

Based upon monthly California data, this exploratory analysis uses vector error correction methods and associated statistical tests to identify the long-run relationship and the short-run dynamics between highway exposure and crashes. The analysis finds that there is a cointegrating relationship between exposure and crashes, and for fatal, serious injury, and materials crashes, could not reject the hypothesis that crash exposure and frequency move proportionately. The analysis indicates that vector error correction models may be an important tool for improving our understanding of highway crashes and the near and longer term impacts of alternative safety policies.     

Consumer Self-Generation and Monopoly Limit-Pricing under Timing Uncertainty of Deregulation in the Electricity Market

Due to uncertainty in the timing of deregulation for electric power generation, large and potentially self-generating consumers should consider a lost option value as part of the cost of any investment they consider. This paper uses a simple two-period model to analyze the role played by the timing anticipation of deregulation in the decision making of potential self-generators (PSGs) and for limit-contract pricing of local utilities. We develop an effective limit-pricing rule and conclude that a higher-probability of early deregulation will lead utilities to retain more consumers and to set higher limit prices before deregulation. A possible early deregulation might not harm utilities; it could even benefit utilities in finite lifetime periods. Finally, a simulation is provided which supports our main results and shows that the effects on utilities' expected profits of uncertainty about the coming deregulation will depend on the distribution of consumer types.     

Finance and sources of growth: evidence from the U.S. states

How does financial development affect economic growth: through its impact on accumulation of physical and human capital or by boosting total factor productivity (TFP) growth? We use a new data set on output, inputs, and total factor productivity for the US states to study this question. Unlike previous cross-country research that tries to disentangle the channels through which financial development impacts growth, we use a plausibly exogenous measure of financial development: the timing of banking deregulation across states during the period 1970–2000. At the same time our new data set allows us to go beyond what was previously done in the state banking deregulation literature and identify whether finance impacts states’ input accumulation or TFP growth. We find, in line with existing cross-country studies, that deregulation boosts growth by accelerating both TFP growth and the accumulation of physical capital without having any impact on human capital. In contrast to the cross-country studies, we also find that the effects of deregulation are largely independent of states’ initial level of development; both rich and poor states grow faster after deregulation. Additionally, since our data set breaks down aggregate output into three sectors: agriculture, manufacturing, and the remaining industries, we are able to show that deregulation accelerates the growth of productivity in manufacturing. This last finding answers an important critique of the banking deregulation studies which asserts that observed growth effects may be coming from the growth of financial industry itself and not from the beneficial effect of finance on other industries, such as manufacturing.     

Deregulation in an energy market and its impact on R&D for low-carbon energy technology

This paper analyzes the impact of deregulation in an energy market on R&D activities for new energy technology when climate policy is implemented. A model of growth with vertical innovation is modified by including an oligopolistic energy supply sector for demonstrating to what extent deregulation in the energy supply sector will affect R&D activities for low-carbon energy technology, provided that carbon taxation is implemented. The analysis shows that, when the elasticity of substitution between input factors is less than unity, deregulation will drive energy R&D activities and reduce CO₂ accumulation if the energy market is highly concentrated in the beginning.     

能源企业战略成本管理研究———以市场竞争环境为调节变量

从实证研究的角度研究了员工参与、全面质量管理和内部协调对能源企业战略成本管理绩效的影响,以及市场竞争环境的调节效应。通过对国内能源企业的问卷调研,利用调研数据对模型进行了统计检验,得到了实证研究结果。研究结果表明：员工参与、全面质量管理和内部协调对对能源企业的战略成本管理绩效有显著的正向影响;市场竞争环境显著调节了内部协调与战略成本管理绩效之间的关系,而对员工参与和全面质量管理与战略成本管理绩效之间的关系无显著的调节作用。本文的研究结论可以为能源企业的战略成本管理提供理论借鉴。     

Alcohol-related crashes and alcohol availability in grass-roots communities

This paper employs a unique panel data from 111 small non-metropolitan incorporated cities in California during a 108 month period from January 1981 to December 1989 in order to analyse the effect of alcohol availability on highway safety. Negative binomial regression models are estimated which include alcohol licences per square mile as a measure of alcohol availability. Theoretically, the sign of the alcohol licence density is indeterminate as it reflects a trade-off of its effect on traffic exposure and on the time price alcohol. Among the findings, increases in the density of general alcohol licences for off-site (on-site) alcohol consumption are beneficial (detrimental) to highway safety whereas increasing the density of beer/wine licences have non-uniform effects. Additional findings important to municipal policymakers are that DUI arrests and increasing the price of alcohol reduce alcohol-related crashes.     

Highway Spending and Induced Vehicle Emissions: Evidence from the US states

This paper investigates the impact of state and local government highway spending on vehicle emissions. A theoretical framework is constructed to show the effect of government highway spending on passenger and freight vehicle emissions and decompose the effect into a rebound effect, an induced demand effect and an interaction effect. We then develop an empirical strategy and combine state-level data in the US to test the induced CO2 emissions by government highway spending. We find that there are positive and significant total effects of government highway spending on passenger and freight vehicle emissions. The magnitude of these effects, however, significantly differs from one another as the elasticity of freight vehicle emissions with respect to government highway spending is four times larger than that in the passenger sector. The difference can be plausibly explained by the rebound effect and the interaction effect. We argue that policies regarding government spending on highway projects, especially those relying on cost-benefit analysis, should account for the potential difference in induced environmental impacts between passenger and freight vehicles.     

Economic determinants of deregulation in the gas distribution market

Many state public commissions have deregulated their utility markets. However, evidence of welfare or efficiency improvements under deregulation is ambiguous. It is also unclear why different states adopt consumer choice, price caps, sliding-scale plans, or retain rate-of-return regulation. This study evaluates several economic factors behind deregulation in gas distribution markets using a survey of state commissions. Logistic and hazard models show that utilities’ prices and capacity, and states’ stock of own gas wells, prices of competing fuels and the regulatory climate, help explain the pattern of deregulation. Demonstration effects from surrounding markets also contribute. These factors make the propensity to use price caps versus restructuring vary regionally.