Multidimensional poverty in South Africa in 2001–16

This study uses the Census 2001 and 2011 as well as Community Survey 2007 and 2016 data to derive a multidimensional poverty index in South Africa for each year, before assessing the changes in non-money-metric, multidimensional poverty over time. Both the incidence and intensity of multidimensional poverty decreased continuously, and these declines were more rapid than that of money-metric poverty. The decrease in multidimensional poverty between 2001 and 2016 was most rapid for female Africans residing in rural areas in Eastern Cape and KwaZulu–Natal provinces. Multidimensional poverty was most serious in numerous district councils in these two provinces, despite the fact that poverty decline was also most rapid in these district councils. The results of the multidimensional poverty index decomposition indicated that Africans contributed more than 95% to multidimensional poverty, while unemployment, years of schooling and disability were the three indicators contributing most to poverty.     

Poverty, Inequality and Growth in Selected Middle East and North Africa Countries, 1980–2000

This paper uses crosscountry data and country-case studies to analyze trends in poverty, inequality and economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Compared to other regions, the MENA region has a low incidence of poverty and income inequality. Two factors account for this situation: international migration/remittances and public sector (government) employment. Since the early 1980s international migration to the Persian Gulf and Europe has helped boost the incomes of the poor in the Middle East. At the same time, many MENA countries have used government employment as a means of keeping people employed and out of poverty. Regression analysis of crosscountry data shows that both of these factors have a statistically significant impact on reducing the level and depth of poverty in the MENA region.     

克服农村文化贫困——社会主义和谐社会视角下的反贫困道路

文章通过对实践背景、理论背景和政策背景的分析揭示目前克服农村文化贫困的必要性，从文化理性的缺乏和对优秀传统文化的忽视两方面阐述了农村文化贫困的主要现状，强调文化因素对地区经济和社会发展的巨大反作用，主张文化贫困是造成经济贫困的重要原因，旨在通过对非经济贫困问题的深入探讨，找到和谐社会视角下农村反文化贫困的新途径。     

Estimating the Impact of Covid-19 on Poverty in Indonesia

Covid-19 has infected and will continue to infect millions of people all over the world. The economic impact is predicted to be large and millions of people will be pushed into poverty. In this paper, we estimate the impact of Covid-19 on poverty in Indonesia. The economic impact is expected to be severe, reducing the economic growth rate projected for 2020 from about 5% to between 4.2% and –3.5%. We find that under the best-case scenario, the poverty rate will increase from 9.2% in September 2019 to 9.7% by the end of 2020, pushing 1.3 million more people into poverty. Under the worst-case scenario, the poverty rate will increase to 16.6%, close to the level seen in 2004 when the poverty rate was 16.7%. This means that 19.7 million more people will become poor, substantially reversing Indonesia’s progress in reducing poverty. The implication is that Indonesia will need to expand its social protection programs to assist the new poor as well as the existing poor.     

地理空间溢出、禀赋条件差异与区域贫困集聚——基于空间计量模型的实证分析

在构建贫困集聚空间计量模型的基础上,依据31个省域2005-2010年统计数据,对我国区域贫困问题进行了实证分析。结果表明:各省区贫困发生具有显著空间依赖特征;贫困空间分布遵循"西高东低,梯次递减"规律;局部聚集呈现出"东冷(L-L),西热(H-H)"特点;纳入地理空间效应的实证结论更加稳健与科学,空间模型优于传统模型;经济发展水平、财政扶贫支出、市场化程度、公共服务供给、城镇化、人口聚集以及收入分配差距均对贫困发生、集聚施加影响,但影响模式、时效、强度及方向存在明显差别。     

精准扶贫创新机制:非灾经济发展模式研究

十八届三中全会提出“全面深化改革”的战略决议,确保到2020年如期全面建成小康社会,然而贫穷地区落后现状难以一时改变,如何精准扶贫成了当下经济学的重要议题,非灾害经济发展模式正是顺应全面建设小康社会的基础上提出,针对我国偏僻困难的地区规划重建,使其走上新的发展道路摘掉贫困帽子。首先论证了精准扶贫的必要性和非灾害经济发展模式的科学性,使用2003-2015四川省灾前灾后统计数据得出“推倒重来”具有高效的经济效益,得出的模型参数,再结合连片贫困县的实际情况,得出预测的非灾害经济发展模式下所带来的效益,该效益领先于实际经济增长13．06%,最后系统性地给出评估方法和政策建议。     

精准扶贫、媒体关注度和技术创新的关系研究

基于利益相关者理论、资源依赖性理论以及声誉机制理论,运用2016—2019年A股上市公司数据研究精准扶贫对技术创新的影响机理,并探究媒体关注度在精准扶贫与技术创新之间的调节作用。结果表明：精准扶贫能够促进企业技术创新;媒体关注度在精准扶贫与技术创新的关系中起正向调节作用,但这种作用只存在于非国有企业中。拓展发现,成长能力对精准扶贫与技术创新的关系起负向调节作用,即成长能力越好,精准扶贫对技术创新的作用越弱,成长能力越弱,精准扶贫对技术创新的作用越强。研究成果为提升企业技术创新提供了新思路,对理解媒体聚焦下精准扶贫行为产生的经济后果具有重要理论价值和现实意义。     

Evolution of Poverty During the Crisis in Indonesia

The economic crisis caused a clear deterioration in the welfare of the Indonesian people. In this paper, we examine the appropriate method to compare the change in poverty rates over time. We then piece together a consistent series of estimates of poverty rates during the crisis from various sources, covering a period from February 1996 to February 2002. The reconciliation of these various estimates paints a very reasonable picture and neatly tracks events. The poverty rate increased from the lowest point of approximately 15% at the onset of the crisis in the middle of 1997 to the highest point of approximately 33% nearing the end of 1998. This maximum increase in poverty rate during the crisis of 18 percentage points implies that approximately 36 million additional people were pushed into absolute poverty due to the crisis. After the peak point, the poverty rate started to decline again and reached the pre-crisis level of approximately 15% at the end of 1999, implying that the lost time in poverty reduction due to the crisis was approximately 2.5years. However, the poverty rate after this point appears to have fluctuated. During 2001 and early 2002, poverty was on the rise again.     

基于外部性理论的中廖村旅游扶贫研究

旅游扶贫是解决旅游资源富集地区贫困问题的有效途径。通过实地调查与访谈，厘清了中廖村旅游扶贫现状，总结了扶贫工作的已有成效，认为尚有部分村民没有实现真脱贫。然后，立足于外部性理论探究当地旅游扶贫中的外部影响，发现旅游扶贫有助于增加居民收入、改善生活环境，但是也会增加社会治理成本、产生交通问题，甚至引发公地悲剧。因此，认为可以从政府主导、经济调节、公众参与三个方面来降低负外部性。     

The price of poverty: The association between childhood poverty and adult income and education in Sweden, 1947–2015

Childhood poverty increases the likelihood of being poor as an adult. We know relatively little about this persistence of poverty in the past and whether it changed as modern welfare societies developed. This study both analyses determinants of childhood poverty and assesses the association between childhood poverty and economic outcomes in adulthood for men and women who grew up in southern Sweden, and who were followed to adulthood regardless of where in Sweden they resided. Poverty is measured in relative terms. Being raised by a single mother, foreign origin, and being raised in a context where the household head was not employed were important risk factors for childhood poverty. Growing up in relative poverty was in turn associated with low income and education in adulthood. Both the persistence and intensity of childhood poverty mattered, and so did the age during which poverty was experienced. Patterns were similar for men and women, and there was no consistent change over time as the Swedish welfare state expanded.     

Assessing Poverty Trends in Indonesia by International Poverty Lines

Indonesia has made well-documented and drastic progress in raising average incomes and reducing poverty. This article adds to the literature by providing a complementary perspective of poverty between 1984 and 2011. We discuss the evolution of poverty in Indonesia using international poverty lines—$1.25 per person per day (in 2005 purchasing power parity dollars) and $2.00 per day, and we add $10.00 per day. We generate estimates of poverty since 1984 and make projections based on various trends in growth and inequality. We find that Indonesia has the potential to become a high-income country by around 2025 and end $1.25-per-day and $2.00-perday poverty by 2030, but this will require strong economic growth and favourable changes in distribution. Looking ahead, the end of poverty in Indonesia may mean that a large proportion of the population will remain vulnerable to poverty for some time to come, suggesting that public policy priorities will need to balance insurance and risk-management mechanisms with more ‘traditional’ poverty policy.     

Rural Labor Migration and Poverty Reduction in China

Using various sources of data, this paper examines the contributions of rural labor migration to economic growth and poverty reduction in China. The results show that there is still a significant number of people living in poverty in rural areas, while the effectiveness of migration on poverty reduction has declined, implying an urgent need for new approaches to poverty reduction. China's experiences could also be valuable for the formulation of development strategies in other developing countries.     

Fiscal Policies and Poverty Incidence: The Case of Thailand

The evidence presented in this paper suggests that moderate, once-only pro-poor fiscal reallocations may have significant effects on both poverty incidence and inequality. The paper simulates the effects of hypothetical reallocations of the total tax burden away from taxes falling heavily on the poor (indirect taxes in general) and towards those falling predominantly on the rich (direct taxes, especially the personal income tax). It performs a similar exercise for hypothetical reallocations of expenditures and for changes in the overall size of taxes and expenditures, deriving the effects that these reallocations have on both poverty incidence (headcount measure) and inequality (Gini coefficient).     

马克思理论视角下我国城市贫困及反贫困研究

20世纪90年代以来,中国城市贫困问题日益显现,已成为国家经济增长、社会稳定、家庭和个人全面发展的阻碍。依据马克思贫困理论的三个层面,从技术基础、表现形态和制度决定,分析转型期我国城市贫困的产生背景、社会构成和结构成因,提出了城市反贫困的途径,旨在为我国的城市贫困研究提供借鉴。     

Trade Liberalization,Economic Restructuring and Urban Poverty: The Case of China*

Increased trade openness and rapid market-oriented transformation have largely altered the patterns of wealth accumulation and wealth distribution in post-reform China. In the present paper, with the help of Chinese provincial level data over the period of 1986 to 2000, simultaneous equations estimation and generalized method of moment techniques are applied to investigate the relationship between trade and poverty in urban China. Empirical results suggest that China's trade liberalization helps to reduce urban poverty both directly and indirectly through its favorable impacts on economic growth.     

Poverty and Vulnerability in Indonesia Before and After the Economic Crisis

It is well known that the economic crisis in Indonesia has caused the poverty rate to increase significantly. The present study finds, not only that the poverty rate increased significantly, but also that much of the increase was due to a large increase in the chronic poor category (i.e. the poor who have expected consumption below the poverty line and most likely will stay poor in the near future). Furthermore, the present study also finds that the proportion of households that have high vulnerability to poverty has more than doubled since the economic crisis. As a result, the proportion of the total vulnerable group (the current poor plus the high vulnerability group) has jumped from less than one-fifth of the population before the crisis to more than one-third after the crisis.     

农村集体经济组织与农民专业合作社协同扶贫模式创新:重庆例证

农村集体经济组织和农民专业合作社是与农民联系较为紧密的两类经济组织,是贫困地区打赢脱贫攻坚战的重要内生性力量。但在实践中,受农村集体经济组织市场主体地位不明确、承担市场经营风险能力弱及农民专业合作社总体规模偏小、脱贫带动力不强等因素影响,两类主体的扶贫作用都未能得到充分发挥。重庆市城口县是国家扶贫开发工作重点县,在近年来的脱贫攻坚中,一方面普遍性地成立了新型农村集体经济组织,作为承接相关政府部门扶贫资源、开展村集体资产运营管理的平台;另一方面通过平等协商将村集体经济组织承接的扶贫资源以入股方式投入当地运行规范、实力较强的农民专业合作社,以获取相对稳定的分红收益,并优先用于增加贫困户收入。该模式既为村“两委”参与市场活动和承接政府扶贫资源提供了有效载体,又较好地保证了农民专业合作社等市场主体的经营自主权,有利于构建激励兼容、多方共赢的长效扶贫机制,是有镜鉴价值的扶贫模式创新。     

Measuring poverty with noisy and corrected estimates of annual consumption: Evidence from Nigeria

An opportunity to improve measurement and modelling of poverty in Africa arises from recent intra‐year panel surveys that observe household consumption in post‐planting and post‐harvest periods. Observing the same household twice lets an intra‐year correlation be estimated, which can be used to form a corrected estimate of annual consumption. The usual approach surveys consumption for just one short period, like a week or month, and extrapolates to an annual total. This may adequately estimate mean annual consumption for samples spread over a year but overstates dispersion. The resulting noise in consumption estimates inflates measures of poverty and inequality and creates misclassification errors that bias logit and probit models of poverty determinants. This study uses data from the 2012/2013 Nigeria General Household Survey panel to show effects on poverty measures of using annual estimates extrapolated from short‐period surveys. With the corrected extrapolation method that uses intra‐year correlations to adjust for inflated variances, Nigeria's poverty headcount rate falls by one half. Hence, much of the poverty measured in cross‐sectional surveys is transient poverty, for which different policy interventions are needed than for alleviating chronic poverty.     

Gendered trends in poverty in the post-apartheid period, 1997–2006

This study investigates whether trends in the extent and depth of poverty in South Africa over the past decade have been gendered. We examine whether females are more likely to live in poor households than males and whether this has changed over time, and how poverty has changed for female-headed and male-headed households. We use data from the 1997 and 1999 October Household Surveys and the 2004 and 2006 General Household Surveys, which have the advantage of collecting information on the individual receipt of social grant income. We find that although poverty rates have fallen for both males and females, and for male-headed and female-headed households, the decline has been larger for males and for male-headed households. Gender differences in poverty rates have therefore widened over the period. We show that these findings are robust to the possible underestimation of household income and to adjustments for household composition.