Labor unemployment risk and firm risk

This paper examines the effect of labor unemployment risk on firm risk. Using unemployment insurance benefits as a proxy for unemployment risk, we find an economically significant positive relation between unemployment risk and firm risk. This positive relation is more pronounced for firms that are more labor-intensive, have a higher layoff propensity and are more financially constrained. While existing literature that employs corporate policy measures such as debt and cash holdings suggests an opposite relationship, our paper presents evidence that the effects stemming from earnings management, earnings quality and reporting quality appear to dominate.     

Fair wages,labor relations and asset returns

The paper investigates the nexus between labor and financial markets, focusing on how labor union’s attitude in the wage-setting process and the firm’s investment strategy affect asset returns. We assume that the labor union’s relative preferences between wage and employment depend on selected measures of firm’s financial performance. The paper shows that if the labor union ties its preference for wage to the firm’s dividends (or to any other quantity measuring available liquidity), then the volatility of the firm’s returns increases. Consequently, equities have to grant high expected returns in order to remunerate the increased volatility. This mechanism offers an explanation for the “equity premium” (that is the difference between the equity return rate and the risk free rate). It is a welcome result that the simulated excess return is about the empirical estimate and that it is obtained with a plausibly low parameterization of the shareholders’ risk aversion.     

The anticipated real interest rate,capital utilization and the cyclical pattern of real wages

This paper develops a channel through which increases in anticipated real interest rates can be ‘expansionary’ for current aggregate labor demand and current output supply. The key feature of the model is the introduction of a user cost of capital utilization which confronts the firm with the intertemporal problem of the optimal choices of capital utilization and depreciation. The resulting variation in capital utilization and capital services in response to fluctuations in the real rate of interest shifts the marginal product of labor and, thus, the demand for labor at the same time and in the same direction that Lucas-Rapping real interest rate effects operate on labor supply. The complete model places no a priori restrictions on the cyclical pattern of real wages, thus avoiding the countercyclical real wage prediction made by Keynes and various classical writers that is rejected by the data. Estimates of a labor demand schedule for the annual U.S. data reveal a significantly positive real interest rate effect.     

Financing and the demand for corporate insurance

In this paper we examine the insurance decision of a firm with private information regarding its cash flows and insurable losses. We show that, even in the absence of bankruptcy costs and information production by insurers, the firm's attempts to hedge its information risk can induce it to demand insurance. If higher operating revenues are accompanied by a lower insurance risk, the firm will choose to self-insure. In contrast, if higher operating revenues are accompanied by a higher insurance risk, the firm will demand insurance. In fact, if its insurable losses are relatively small, the firm will fully insure its losses. Further, if there exists considerable uncertainty regarding the firm's insurance risk, the level of coverage demanded by the firm is dependent on its private information, with higher levels of coverage signaling favorable information regarding the firm's future operations.     

Do labor unions affect firm payout policy?: Operating leverage and rent extraction effects

While previous literature documents weak effects of unionization on payout policy on average, we find that this average relationship hides significant heterogeneous effects of unionization on payouts across firms that depend on firm profitability. The effect of unionization on payouts is negative for low-profitability firms but positive for high-profitability firms. We posit that labor unions (i) increase operating risk, which negatively affects payouts, but (ii) increase potential for rent extraction from unions, which could induce shareholders to demand positive payouts. Higher profitability mitigates the negative effect while strengthening the positive effect, making the relation between unionization and payouts less negative or more positive. We provide evidence consistent with both the negative and positive effects of unionization on payouts. Our empirical design mitigates endogeneity concerns. Further, an instrumental variable analysis and a cross-sectional test using right-to-work laws confirm that endogeneity is unlikely to drive our results.     

Corporate demand for insurance: Some empirical and theoretical results

While risk aversion explains individual consumer demand for insurance, it does not explain the corporate demand for insurance. Studies have suggested a variety of incentives that motivate corporations to purchase insurance. We find that the primary motivation for corporate insurance purchases can be explained by the bondholder's me-first rule. In return for insurance, bondholders will charge stockholders a lower cost of debt, thereby increasing firm value.     

自由现金流量创造力与违约风险——来自A股公司的经验证据

本文基于我国A股上市公司数据,研究了企业自由现金流量创造力与违约风险之间的关系。研究发现:(1)企业自由现金流量创造力越强,其违约风险越低。经过一系列稳健性检验后,该结论依旧成立。(2)自由现金流量创造力越强的企业往往有更低的债务规模、更高的资产收益率和更低的股票波动,因而其违约风险更低。(3)自由现金流量创造力与违约风险的负相关关系,主要存在于货币政策紧缩时期以及外部信息环境较差的企业。本文发现意味着,监管部门和投资者应重视上市公司自由现金流量创造力不足所带来的潜在债务违约风险,通过不断提高公司自由现金流量创造力,助力我国宏观经济与微观企业高质量发展。     

Do political connection disruptions increase labor costs in a government-dominated market? Evidence from publicly listed companies in China

This paper investigates whether the disruption of political connections increases labor costs among Chinese listed firms. Using the Communist Party of China's Rule No. 18 as an exogenous shock that forces firms to lose their politically connected independent directors, we find that the disruption of political connections is associated with an increase in labor costs (both in terms of aggregate labor costs per firm and average labor costs per employee) and an increase in employee turnover. Such increases do not lead to labor productivity improvements, and cannot be attributed to changes in corporate policies or the composition of labor forces after Rule No. 18. We also find that firms with higher unemployment risk and skilled labor risk increase their labor costs to a larger extent. Our results are robust to alternative labor cost measures, controlling for potential confounding events, and alternative political connection channels. Our study shows an unintended labor market consequence—increases in labor costs—of political connection disruptions for firms that are adversely affected by such disruptions.     

经济增长视角下的中国劳动力数量与结构变化

我国劳动年龄人口（15-59岁）已经在2012年呈现负增长,劳动力（20-59岁）数量也将从2016年开始下降,2022年开始,我国劳动力数量则会快速下降。目前劳动供给紧平衡,农村向城镇转移劳动力速度放缓,工资快速上涨,求人倍率连续三年大于1。伴随我国劳动力数量下降,劳动市场将供小于求,影响我国经济增长。文章建议,一方面要提高劳动参与率,降低经济对劳动力数量的依赖,另一方面要提高劳动效率,采取有效措施促进农村就业人口向城镇转移,减少结构性就业矛盾。     

Labor unemployment risk and corporate financing decisions

This paper presents evidence that firms choose conservative financial policies partly to mitigate workers' exposure to unemployment risk. We exploit changes in state unemployment insurance laws as a source of variation in the costs borne by workers during layoff spells. We find that higher unemployment benefits lead to increased corporate leverage, particularly for labor-intensive and financially constrained firms. We estimate the ex ante, indirect costs of financial distress due to unemployment risk to be about 60 basis points of firm value for a typical BBB-rated firm. The findings suggest that labor market frictions have a significant impact on corporate financing decisions.     

兼并收购可以促进劳动力结构优化升级吗？

本文使用2000-2016年我国沪深A股上市公司数据,实证研究了公司被并购对其劳动力结构的影响。研究发现,公司被并购带来公司的劳动力结构优化升级,即公司会增加非常规高技能劳动力占比和高学历劳动力占比,降低常规低技能劳动力占比。渠道检验发现,并购会通过降低企业融资约束,促进企业生产技术升级来促进企业的劳动力结构优化升级。异质性分析发现并购对劳动力结构优化升级的影响在非完全换股并购和低绩效企业中更为显著。     

Impact of risk aversion and countervailing tax in oligopoly

The literature recognizes the qualitative effects of risk aversion on oligopolistic market performance, but less is known about their magnitudes. We quantitatively evaluate these effects in Cournot and Bertrand oligopolies where firms maximize mean-variance utilities under linear demand and costs. The impacts are very similar for the two types of oligopoly, but have opposite signs. The impacts of a firm’s risk aversion on outputs, prices, consumer surplus and social welfare can be expressed via potentially observable variables. Since these impacts resemble the effects of firms’ cost changes, a regulator can reduce or eliminate undesirable effects of risk aversion by changing firms’ costs with appropriate countervailing taxes.     

融资约束会导致劳动收入份额下降吗?——基于世界银行提供的中国企业数据的实证研究

本文考察了融资约束对劳动收入份额的影响。首先基于文献提出了一个假说,面临融资约束的企业,通过信贷获得流动资本的能力受到限制,它们倾向于减少劳动雇用或降低工资水平,从而对劳动收入份额产生负面影响。通过对世界银行提供的中国企业数据进行系统GMM估计和稳健性分析,我们找到了这一命题的支持性证据:私人企业的负债资产比(融资约束的代理变量)与劳动收入份额显著负相关,而国有企业和外资企业则没有类似的结论。出现这一差异的关键原因是,在中国,只有私人企业面临着融资约束的困扰。     

Risk and risk management of spillover effects: Evidence from the literature

In this article, we provide a comprehensive review of the existing theoretical and empirical literature regarding spillover effects (effects of a crisis event in an announcing firm on other firms). In particular, we focus on the mechanism behind spillover effects and investigate factors that drive spillover effects. The results of our literature analysis show that spillover effects are most often significantly negative, that is, lead to losses in nonannouncing firms and depend on certain events and firm characteristics. On this basis, we derive implications for the risk management of spillover effects. Taking previous work on certain individual risk‐management measures into account, we are the first to provide a holistic spillover risk‐management process.     

Cross-listing dynamics and labor investment efficiency: International evidence

This paper investigates the dynamics of cross-listing in the United States and labor investment efficiency. Using a sample of 11,780 firm-year observations from 44 countries over the period 2000–2019, we found that cross-listing is positively associated with labor investment efficiency. This result suggests that cross-listing is associated with lower deviations in labor investment at the level explained by economic fundamentals. We also found that cross-listing reduces both overinvestment and underinvestment problems. The positive impact of cross-listing on labor investment efficiency is more prevalent for firms from countries with weaker institutions and higher liabilities due to foreignness and for those operating in industries with low litigation risk. Further evidence shows that labor investment efficiency following cross-listing in the United States translates into high firm valuation. Our findings are robust to endogeneity concerns and have important policy implications.     

Managerial compensation: Luck,skill or labor markets?

Luck, skill and labor markets all have empirical support as determinants of managerial compensation. We examine the relative importance of pay for luck, managerial skill and labor market opportunities in determining compensation. We measure luck as the predictable component of firm performance, measure skill using managerial fixed effects and measure labor market opportunities as the compensation of executives at matched firms. Our results imply that managerial skill is the most important determinant of managers' compensation, followed by firm size and labor market opportunities, and that luck is not an important determinant of managerial compensation.     

The bright side of the internal labor market: Evidence from the labor cost stickiness of firms affiliated with privately owned business groups in China

We examine whether having an internal labor market can help a firm affiliated with a privately owned business group (POBG) reduce labor cost stickiness. Our findings suggest that, when a POBG-affiliated firm experiences a decrease in sales, it has lower labor cost stickiness than an otherwise equivalent firm that is not affiliated with a POBG. Specifically, we find that, on average, a POBG-affiliated firm entirely mitigates labor cost stickiness when it has a decrease in sales. In addition, we document that, to adjust its labor cost downward, a POBG-affiliated firm hires fewer employees, rather than paying lower wages. We show that the lower labor cost stickiness is due to movement of employees from the focal firm to other firms within the same POBG. When sales fall, the POBG reallocates excess employees at the focal firm to other firms within the business group via an internal labor market, and the focal firm thereby increases its per capita profit. Moreover, we find that agency cost mediates the impact of a POBG on labor cost stickiness. When the external market is less effective or the POBG headquarters have strong incentives, the effect of POBG affiliation on the reduction in an affiliated firm's labor cost stickiness is more salient.     

Multidimensional heterogeneity and the economic importance of risk and matching: evidence from contractual data and field experiments

We measure the cost of risk and the benefits of matching heterogeneous workers to risk levels within a firm that pays its workers piece rates. The workers of this firm are heterogeneous in two dimensions: risk preferences and ability. Our results suggest that workers’ willingness to pay to avoid risk is heterogeneous. It can attain 40% of their expected net earnings but averages to only 1%. Moreover, the benefits to the firm of matching are relatively small: profits are predicted to increase by only 2.3%, 4% if we restrict attention to cases where matching is possible. Although labor‐market sorting contributes to this result (the workers in this firm are relatively risk tolerant), it is not the primary cause. More important is the relative homogeneity of risk conditions in this firm that give rise to limited opportunities for matching.     

The (non-) effect of labor unionization on firm risk: Evidence from the options market

Labor unionization has no causal effect on firm risk. Using a regression discontinuity design to study the impact of labor union elections on option-implied firm risk, we find that unionization per se does not affect investor perceptions about firm price, tail, or variance risk. This finding is robust to studying very short (5-trading day) and long (up to 2-year) windows around the elections. Moreover, there is no unionization effect on firm risk either in subsets of firms facing strong union bargaining power, or with characteristics that prior literature identifies as important determinants of the effect of unionization on firm outcomes.     

Value chain capability,value strategies and firm default risk

Firm stakeholders are paying more attention to the firm risks rather than merely focusing on returns. Among those risks, a firm's ability to repay its debt increasingly becomes a yardstick to evaluate a firm and predict the security level of returning its borrowings. This situation is directly related to a firm's default risk. The current article links the firm's value strategies and capabilities to firm default risk reduction. Specifically, this article conceptualizes and operationalizes a new firm capability, value chain capability, and examines how this capability and two firm value strategies, R&D and advertising, reduce the firm's default risk. Meanwhile, the authors formulate the value chain capability's moderating effects on the relationships between the two value strategies and firm default risk. The findings suggest that value chain capability and advertising help the firm reduce default risk. R&D will have the same effect only when a firm has high value chain capability.