Exchange Rates and Outward Foreign Direct Investment: US FDI in Emerging Economies

This paper investigates the effect of exchange rates on US foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to a sample of 16 emerging market countries using annual panel data for the period 1990–2002. Three separate exchange rate effects are considered: the value of the local currency (a cheaper currency attracts FDI); expected changes in the exchange rate (expected devaluation implies FDI is postponed); and exchange rate volatility (discourages FDI). The results reveal a negative relationship between FDI and more expensive local currency, the expectation of local currency depreciation, and volatile exchange rates. Stable exchange rate management can be important in attracting FDI.     

Cross-country evidence on determinants of fiscal policy effectiveness: the role of trade and capital flows

This article studies the determinants of size differentials between fiscal multipliers in countries around the world, both advanced and developing economies. We introduce variables not considered before for explaining multiplier size differentials, such as capital flows and the openness of capital markets, while controlling for domestic conditions and exchange rate regimes. We also disaggregate GDP into its main components in order to identify the channels through which external and internal factors can influence GDP after a change in fiscal policy. Our results point to the existence of a new channel through which fiscal policy effectiveness is affected. Capital flows, especially FDI flows, play an important role in determining the sizes of fiscal multipliers, and a country’s external conditions largely explain GDP changes after fiscal expenditure shocks. Our results also point towards a strong link between a country’s international position and its real economy.     

OLD WINE IN A NEW BOTTLE: TRADE OPENNESS AND FDI FLOWS—ARE THE EMERGING ECONOMIES CONVERGING?

This study uses the club convergence methodology of Phillips and Sul (2007) for emerging economies spanning the period 1960–2013 to explore whether such convergence exists and whether the increase of international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows has been a global or club phenomenon. We find the absence of a homogeneous convergence club. The results for FDI outflows also reach similar conclusions, suggesting the formation of convergence clubs by stage of development. These results suggest that policies that promote convergence in trade openness and FDI flows would permit countries to benefit from mutual interactions and by greater consistency and efficiency in trade regimes, thus permitting these countries to benefit from openness leading to a race to the top rather than bottom. (JEL F41, C33)     

Exchange rate and Chinese outward FDI

Did the exchange rate (ER) regime change that was announced by the Chinese government in 2005 lead to an increased sensitivity of Chinese multinational companies (MNCs) to ER fluctuations? To answer this question our article considers the effect of ER level, volatility and expectation on the Chinese outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) activities in 119 countries for a period of 2003–2013. We find striking evidence that Chinese Renminbi appreciation has a negative impact on Chinese outward FDI flows, and both higher ER volatility and expected depreciation encourage Chinese outward FDI flows. We introduce two complementary effects that explain these findings: repatriation effect and mercantilist effect. In view of the recent debate about the growing importance of Chinese Renminbi in the international transactions we believe that our research results shed light on the possible impact of ER policies on Chinese MNCs behaviour and global FDI distribution.     

Taxes,institutions and foreign diversification opportunities

Investors can access foreign diversification opportunities through either foreign portfolio investment (FPI) or foreign direct investment (FDI). The worldwide tax regime employed by the US potentially distorts this choice by penalizing FDI, relative to FPI, in low-tax countries. On the other hand, weak investor protections in foreign countries may increase the value of control, creating an incentive to use FDI rather than FPI. By combining data on US outbound FPI and FDI, this paper analyzes whether the composition of US outbound capital flows reflects these incentives to bypass home and host country institutional regimes. The results suggest that the residual tax on US multinational firms' foreign earnings skews the composition of outbound capital flows — a 10% decrease in a foreign country's corporate tax rate increases US investors' equity FPI holdings by approximately 10%, controlling for effects on FDI. Investor protections also seem to shape portfolio choices, though these results are not robust when only within-country variation is employed.     

Declining US output volatility and its effect on labour flow volatility: an MGARCH analysis

This article examines the impact of the level and volatility of the real exchange rate on UK foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows from the seven major countries of origin of the investment over the period 1975–2001. We use both fixed effects and dynamic generalized methods of moments (GMM) panel estimation techniques, and manufacturing data disaggregated by high and low R&D content of the sector of destination. Our results provide strong evidence that exchange rate volatility has a negative impact on FDI flows into the UK, irrespective of the sector of destination of the investment. On the other hand, the level of the real exchange rate is found to have a statistically insignificant effect on FDI after controlling for endogeneity of the regressors.     

International migration,foreign direct investment,and development stage in developing economies

The existing empirical results on the relationship between FDI and migration are rather mixed. This study reevaluates, both theoretically and empirically, how inward FDI relates to emigration in developing countries. Our model illustrates that the relationship between inward FDI and emigration flows depends on the development stage of a developing country, that is, there is a positive association between inward FDI and emigration flows for relatively less‐developed countries but a negative association between these two variables for relatively developed countries. We confirm the empirical validity of our model prediction using the panel data of 21 OECD and 51 non‐OECD countries during the period from 2003 to 2012. Our results argue that as economic development proceeds in a developing country, the home effect of inward FDI associated with intensified labor demand would dominate the linkage effect that induces the brain drain problem through enhancing the socioeconomic ties with migrant networks.     

Financial flows and economic growth in developing countries

This paper assesses the impact of financial flows and their composition on the real exchange rate and on economic growth for a sample of low- and middle-income countries over the period of 1980–2012. Financial flows can directly support economic growth by relaxing constraints on domestic resources, but can also indirectly weaken growth through appreciation of the real exchange rate. We use the generalized method of moments (GMM) for dynamic panel. Results show that net financial flows affect economic growth both directly and indirectly: (i) a one percent increase in total financial flows appreciates the real exchange rate by 0.5 percent; (ii) the real exchange rate appreciation effect of remittances is twice the effect of aid and ten times greater than the effect of Foreign Direct Investments; (iii) financial flows stimulate economic growth regardless of the development level. An increase of $10 per capita financial flows leads to a gain of 0.08 points of annual growth. This gain amounts to 0.15 when we control for the negative impact of the real exchange rate. Instability of market-oriented flows, such as FDI and portfolio investments, exacerbates instability of the economic growth rate.     

FDI,SECTORAL OUTPUT AND REAL EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS UNDER FINANCIAL OPENNESS

This paper adopts an alternative approach to the study of the impact of capital inflow on the real exchange rate by foremost, analysing the effect of FDI inflow on the ratio of tradables to nontradables, and then estimating the relationship between the tradable‐nontradable ratio and the real exchange rate, while accounting for the role of financial openness. Based on data for a group of developing countries, the findings show that an increase in FDI inflow is associated with a decrease in the tradable‐nontradable ratio, and that an increase in the tradable‐nontradable ratio leads to a depreciation of the real exchange rate; this effect being greater with an increase in financial openness. This suggests that an increase in FDI inflow could result in an expansion of the nontradable sector, which would be associated with a greater appreciation of the real exchange rate under a higher level of financial openness.     

Removing foreign direct investment's exchange rate risk in developing economies: the case for a foreign exchange custodian board

This paper proposes a system design (foreign exchange custodian board) that may stimulate foreign direct investment (FDI) in developing economies through the removal of foreign investors' exchange rate risk in investment outlay. For any expected distribution of exchange rate on any interval around the starting exchange rate, there exists a non-negative custodian service charge that both the developing economy and foreign investors can benefit from the proposed system. When the increase in domestic factors' value added caused by FDI is sufficiently large, the developing economy will benefit even in the absence of any custodian service charge.     

Is inflation targeting or the fixed exchange rate more effective for attracting FDI into developing countries?

This article investigates which monetary policy regime – inflation targeting or the fixed exchange rate – is more effective for attracting FDI inflows into developing countries. Using propensity score matching and the difference-in-differences estimator, we find no evidence that adopting an inflation targeting regime would be more effective than adopting a fixed exchange rate, and vice versa, in encouraging FDI inflows.     

Exchange rate volatility and capital inflows: role of financial development

There is vast literature examining the impact of exchange rate volatility on various macroeconomic aggregates such as economic growth, trade flows, domestic investment, and more recently capital flows. However, these studies have ignored the role of financial development while examining the impact of exchange rate volatility on capital flows. This study aims to analyze the impact of exchange rate volatility on capital inflows towards developing countries by incorporating the role of financial development over the time period 1980–2013. In this regard, the behavior of two types of capital flows is examined: physical capital inflows measured as foreign direct investment, and financial inflows quantified through remittance inflows. The empirical investigation comprises the direct as well as indirect effect of exchange rate volatility on capital inflows. The study employs dynamic system GMM estimation technique to empirically estimate the effect of exchange rate volatility on capital inflows. The empirical results of the study identify that exchange rate volatility dampens both physical and financial inflows towards developing countries. The indirect impact of exchange rate volatility through financial development, however, turns out positive and statistically significant. This finding reflects that financial development helps in reducing the harmful impact of exchange rate volatility on capital inflows. Hence, the study concludes that a developed financial system is an important channel through which developing countries may improve capital inflows in the long run.     

Does the exchange rate matter to bilateral trade between Korea and Japan? Evidence from commodity trade data

This study examines the short- and long-run effects of exchange rate changes on trade flows in the context of disaggregating industry data of bilateral trade between Korea and Japan. For this purpose, an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach is used. Results show that Korea's exports and imports are relatively sensitive to the bilateral exchange rate in the short-run, but less responsive in the long-run. It is also found that income in the two countries has significant impacts on the bilateral trade flows in both the short- and long-run. Finally, exchange rate uncertainty and Japanese FDI to Korea are found to have little impacts on Korea's trade with Japan in the short- and long-run.     

FDI from the south: The role of institutional distance and natural resources

Using a novel dataset of bilateral FDI flows, we analyze location choices of investors from emerging economies, with an emphasis on institutions and natural resources. We show that FDI from the South has a more regional aspect than investment from the North. Institutional distance has an asymmetric effect on FDI depending on whether investors choose countries with better or worse institutions. In the latter case, large institutional distance discourages FDI inflows, but this deterring effect is diminished for destination countries with substantial resources. We also find a complementary relationship between capital flows from the North and the South in developing recipient countries, which we attribute to different FDI patterns of these investors.     

Inflation,interest and exchange rates in the transition1

Central and Eastern European economies have made extraordinary progress in their trade and exchange regimes. Surprisingly, instant convertibility was established for a great variety of exchange rate regimes. In spite of diversity, all these countries have followed a common pattern: severe initial undervaluation - the cost of speed and unrestricted trade - followed by rapid real revaluation and incipient protectionism. Since 1994 in many cases an embarrass de richesse has appeared: high capital inflows which are either inflationary or costly to sterilize. A major cause of these flows - or at any rate of the high cost of sterilization - is the presence of significant interest rate differentials higher than required to cover the risk of devaluation. These are the necessary consequence of a policy of positive real interest rates and of real revaluation from excessively undervalued exchange rates. Lower interest rates are recommended, both to stem financial capital inflows and to reduce the cost of their sterilization.     

Understanding the dynamics of the macroeconomic trilemma

This paper tests the autonomy of domestic monetary policy in the context of the macroeconomic policy trilemma for a large data-set of developing and developed countries covering three different time periods characterized with different exchange rate regimes and capital controls. The existing literature uses fixed coefficient methodologies to examine monetary policy independence; whereas we show that the coefficients of interest are unstable as countries switch between different exchange rate regimes and/or capital controls over time. The contribution is in using a time-varying parameter model that better captures the effects of the heterogeneity in different exchange rate regimes and capital mobility restrictions on monetary policy independence over time, allowing a more accurate test of the macroeconomic trilemma.     

The interaction between capital controls and exchange rate regimes: evidence from developing countries

Abstract

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the interaction between capital controls and exchange rate policies in developing countries in the 1980s and 1990s. We estimate a simultaneous-equations panel mixed logit model for the joint determination of two decisions. We find strong influences from de jure exchange rate regimes on capital account policies but somewhat weaker feedback impacts. With de facto exchange rate regimes the influences in both directions are similar to each other.     

Democracy in the neighborhood and foreign direct investment

The determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) have been extensively studied. Even though there is extensive research in the area, most of it is based on analyzing the effects of host country characteristics on FDI flows, and yet there is little research on how neighboring country characteristics play a role in facilitating FDI flows to host countries. This paper analyzes the association between the democracy level in neighboring countries and FDI flows to host countries. Using bilateral FDI flows from the OECD countries, with a large host country sample, we find that countries surrounded by democratic countries attract higher FDI flows. Furthermore, we find evidence that countries that are surrounded by neighboring countries with good institutions tend themselves to have better institutions, experience lower civil conflict, and have higher political stability and hence indirectly attract higher FDI flows. Our findings suggest that if neighboring countries act in such way as to become more democratic, FDI flows to these countries would be higher since not only does improving the quality of democracy attract more FDI inflows, but also being surrounded by neighboring advanced democratic countries will also lead to higher FDI flows to them.     

Autocracy,Democracy, and FDI Inflows to the Developing Countries

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between political regimes and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows to the developing countries for a sample of 134 countries over the 1983–2002 period. Using two categorical measures of regime type and three different measures of FDI, this study finds that, regardless of the measures of regime type, democracies are not significantly associated with either FDI in level or FDI as a ratio to GDP; democracy is positively related to a higher level of per capita FDI, but this result is not robust to alternative measures of political regime. Taken as a whole, there is no evidence of a systematic relationship between democracy and FDI inflows. This result suggests that being a democracy does not help attract higher levels of FDI.     

Sovereign Risk, FDI Spillovers, and Growth

This paper studies the effect of sovereign risk on capital flows from rich to poor nations in the context of a two-country model, where Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) creates positive externalities in domestic production. We show that if externalities are large, a developing country never expropriates foreign assets, and behaves as under perfect enforcement of foreigners' property rights, jumping to the steady state in one period. If externalities are absent, a developing country always expropriates foreign assets and, then, there are no capital flows in equilibrium, as occurs in autarky. If externalities are of a medium size, our model can account for scarce capital flows from rich to poor nations, as well as other key features of the data, such as rising-over-time patterns of foreign capital and FDI in developing countries. In addition, the model offers an economic rationale for the FDI restrictions observed across nations.