银行间市场流动性与金融风险救助机制研究

文章从我国银行间市场结构特征出发,分析了近年来银行间市场利率和流动性大 幅波动的内在机理与原因。研究认为,塔形市场交易结构下,银行间市场存在流动性风险易聚 集不易分散的缺陷,且难以依靠“有形之手”得到弥补。文章结合塔形市场结构的特点建立矩 阵分析法,对40家金融机构资产负债表进行实证分析。结论印证了理论分析,即塔形市场交易 结构下风险冲击影响时间更长,且央行流动性救助效果降低,但流动性救助机制能降低风险对 中小型地方法人金融机构的冲击。因此,有必要建立流动性风险救助机制,弥补银行间市场客 观存在的缺陷,增强中小型地方法人金融机构抵御银行间市场流动性风险冲击的能力。     

Interbank market failure and macro-prudential policies

This paper analyses the effects of several macro-prudential policy measures on the banking sector and its linkages to the macroeconomy. We employ a dynamic general equilibrium model with sticky prices, in which banks trade excess funds in the interbank lending market. We find that an increase in the liquidity requirement effectively reduces the impact of an interbank shock on the real and financial sector, while an increased capital requirement propagates only through nominal variables as inflation and interest rates. We conclude that stricter liquidity measures which limit inside money creation, dampen the severity of a breakdown in interbank lending. Targeting interbank financing directly through liquidity measures along with a moderate capital requirement generates lower welfare losses. We thereby provide a comprehensive rationale in favor of the regulatory measures in Basel III.     

Credit Risk in Interbank Networks

ABSTRACT

One of the most striking characteristics of modern financial systems is their complex interdependence, comprising a network of bilateral exposures in the interbank market, in which institutions with surplus liquidity can lend to those with a liquidity shortage. Empirical studies reveal that some interbank networks have features of scale-free networks. We explore the characteristics of financial contagion in networks whose distribution of links approaches a power law, using a model that defines banks’ balance sheets from information on network connectivity. By varying the parameters for the creation of the network, several interbank networks are built, in which the concentration of debt and credit comes from the distribution of links. The results suggest that networks that are more connected and have a high concentration of credit are more resilient to contagion than other types of networks analyzed.     

Balancing liquidity and returns through interbank markets: Endogenous interest rates and network structures

In this article, we develop a model of interbank lending based on liquidity and return on equity considerations of homogeneous banks. We derive the reservation prices of interbank lending and its properties before exploring how, because of an idiosyncratic liquidity shock, banks engage in bilateral lending to form an interbank network. We establish that the resulting networks exhibit realistic properties, including a core-periphery structure. Banks in the core and the periphery of this network differ not only in the amounts of interbank lending and borrowing but also in the interest rates applied to their transactions.     

The impact of unconventional monetary policy on the market for collateral: The case of the French bond market

We consider the channel consisting in transferring the credit risk associated with refinancing operations between financial institutions to market participants. In particular, we analyze liquidity and volatility premia on the French government debt securities market, since these assets are used as collateral both in the open market operations of the ECB and on the interbank market. In our time-varying transition probability Markov-switching (TVTP-MS) model, we highlight the existence of two regimes. In one of them, which we refer to as the conventional regime, monetary policy neutrality is verified; in the other, which we dub the unconventional regime, monetary policy operations lead to volatility and liquidity premia on the collateral market. The existence of these conventional and unconventional regimes highlights some asymmetries in the conduct of monetary policy.     

Lending-of-last-resort is as lending-of-last-resort does: Central bank liquidity provision and interbank market functioning in the euro area

This paper investigates the impact of ample liquidity provision by the European Central Bank on the functioning of the overnight unsecured interbank market from 2008 to 2014. We use novel data on interbank transactions derived from TARGET2, the main euro area payment system. To identify exogenous shocks to central bank liquidity, we exploit the timing of ECB liquidity operations and use a simple structural vector auto-regression framework. We argue that the ECB acted as a de facto lender-of-last-resort to the euro area banking system and identify two main effects of central bank liquidity provision on interbank markets. First, central bank liquidity replaces the demand for liquidity in the interbank market, especially during the financial crisis (2008–2010). Second, it increases the supply of liquidity in the interbank market in stressed countries (Greece, Italy and Spain) during the sovereign debt crisis (2011–2013).     

Complexity, concentration and contagion

This paper develops a network model of interbank lending in which unsecured claims, repo activity and shocks to the haircuts applied to collateral assume centre stage. We show how systemic liquidity crises of the kind associated with the interbank market collapse of 2007–2008 can arise within such a framework, with funding contagion spreading widely through the web of interlinkages. Our model illustrates how greater complexity and concentration in the financial network may amplify this fragility. The analysis suggests how a range of policy measures – including tougher liquidity regulation, macro-prudential policy, and surcharges for systemically important financial institutions – could make the financial system more resilient.     

Money and liquidity in financial markets

We argue that there is a connection between the interbank market for liquidity and the broader financial markets, which has its basis in demand for liquidity by banks. Tightness in the market for liquidity leads banks to engage in what we term “liquidity pull-back,” which involves selling financial assets either by banks directly or by levered investors. Empirical tests on the stock market are supportive. Tighter interbank markets are associated with relatively more volume in more liquid stocks; selling pressure, especially in more liquid stocks; and transitory negative returns. We control for market-wide uncertainty and in the process also contribute to the literature on portfolio rebalancing. Our general point is that money matters in financial markets.     

银行同业业务、资产负债变化与金融市场流动性“悖论”：基于面板数据的实证研究

本文以银行同业业务和金融市场流动性为研究对象,试图厘清银行同业业务对市场流动性产生影响的作用机制,研究发现银行同业业务与流动性管理二者之间存在天然的“悖论”,体现在对资产负债期限错配的不同偏好上：期限错配是同业业务盈利的重要来源,而流动性管理的目标则是严格约束期限错配。本文还在系统构建金融市场流动性测度指标的基础上,借助面板数据,实证检验了不同规模银行、不同类型同业业务对金融市场流动性的影响大小,最后给出政策建议。     

Investigating risk contagion initiated by endogenous liquidity shocks: evidence from the US and eurozone interbank markets

This paper investigates liquidity spillovers between the US and European interbank markets during turbulent and tranquil periods. We show that an endogenous model with time-varying transition probabilities is effective in describing the propagation of liquidity shocks within the interbank market, while predicting liquidity crashes characterised by changed dynamics. We show that liquidity shocks, originating from movements of the spread between the Asset Backed Commercial Paper and T-bill, drive regime changes in the euro fixed-float OIS swap rate. Our results support the idea of endogenous contagion from the US money market to the eurozone money market during the global financial crisis.     

Can banks default overnight? Modelling endogenous contagion on the O/N interbank market

We propose a new model of the liquidity-driven banking system focusing on overnight interbank loans. This significant branch of the interbank market is commonly neglected in the banking system modelling and systemic risk analysis. We construct a model where banks are allowed to use both the interbank and the securities markets to manage their liquidity demand and supply as driven by prudential requirements in a volatile environment. The network of interbank loans is dynamic and simulated every day. We show how the intrasystem cash fluctuations alone, without any external shocks, may lead to systemic defaults, and what may be a symptom of the self-organized criticality of the system. We also analyze the impact of different prudential regulations and market conditions on the interbank market resilience. We confirm that the central bank’s asset purchase programmes, limiting the declines in government bond prices, can successfully stabilize banks’ liquidity demands. The model can be used to analyze the interbank market impact of macroprudential tools.     

我国银行间市场资金面影响因素的探讨——兼对当前市场流动性状况的分析与展望

梳理银行间市场资金面的影响因素,对于分析市场资金面的供求关系,央行评估货币政策执行效果,以及金融机构进行资产组合配置都有积极作用。文章从货币政策、商业银行存贷款增量、央行外汇占款、税收因素等多个角度,梳理了影响我国银行间市场资金面的八项因素,并在此基础上分析了今年5月份以来银行间市场资金面快速趋紧的成因。三季度,受CPI冲高回落、重申人民币汇改以及大型商业银行流动性状况好转等因素影响,银行间市场资金面紧张的格局将逐步改善。     

论中央银行视角下的微观流动性管理

随着金融市场的快速发展,中央银行的流动性管理越来越多地通过金融市场的平台来进行。金融机构作为金融市场的主要参与者,其流动性管理模式应当纳入中央银行的考察视野。为此,本文从宏观与微观流动性的基本定义出发,分析了中央银行宏观流动性管理与金融机构微观流动性管理的内涵与联系,以及中央银行关注微观流动性管理的必要性。最后,本文就如何关注微观流动性管理问题提出了几点建议。     

金融债券市场的创新和发展

近年来,我国银行间债券市场一直保持健康的发展势头,已形成具有交易规模较大、交易品种多样化和参与主体多元化等特征的市场体系。金融债券市场作为这一市场体系的重要组成部分,在人民银行等主管部门的积极推动下,通过不断创新金融债券产品类型、逐步完善市场管理制度、不断深化市场功能,见证并有力支持了银行间债券市场的健康发展。     

Interbank liquidity risk transmission to large emerging markets in crisis periods

In this paper, we conduct two investigations regarding funding liquidity risk in large emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — BRICS. In the first, we track the relevance of monetary policy decisions originating in developed economies for interbank funding liquidity risk in BRICS economies during crisis periods by applying a time-varying parameter model in a Bayesian framework. The results indicate weak associations between interbank credit market and US monetary policy and market conditions. In contrast, the Federal Reserve's National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) — a representative of the health of both real and financial sectors in the US — matters more. The temporal patterns of the results imply that key central banking decisions precede or coincide with low degrees of associations. In the second, we examine whether interbank credit crunch exerts an influence on market liquidity risk in BRICS economies using a Granger causality approach. The results reveal that interbank credit crunch depresses market liquidity in the corresponding domestic market and that the state of fear and credit market conditions in the US exert some influence in this regard. Overall, our findings hint at judicious market intervention and liquidity management by BRICS central banks.     

Quantifying preferential trading in the e-MID interbank market

Interbank markets allow credit institutions to exchange capital for purposes of liquidity management. These markets are among the most liquid markets in the financial system. However, liquidity of interbank markets dropped during the 2007–2008 financial crisis, and such a lack of liquidity influenced the entire economic system. In this paper, we analyse transaction data from the e-MID market which is the only electronic interbank market in the Euro Area and US, over a period of 11 years (1999–2009). We adapt a method developed to detect statistically validated links in a network, in order to reveal preferential trading in a directed network. Preferential trading between banks is detected by comparing empirically observed trading relationships with a null hypothesis that assumes random trading among banks doing a heterogeneous number of transactions. Preferential trading patterns are revealed at time windows of 3-maintenance periods. We show that preferential trading is observed throughout the whole period of analysis and that the number of preferential trading links does not show any significant trend in time, in spite of a decreasing trend in the number of pairs of banks making transactions. We observe that preferential trading connections typically involve large trading volumes. During the crisis, we also observe that transactions occurring between banks with a preferential connection occur at larger interest rates than the complement set—an effect that is not observed before the crisis.     

改善银行间外汇市场衍生品流动性的初步设想

随着金融市场的深入发展,我国外汇衍生品市场发展迅速,外汇衍生品的品种逐渐丰富。在银行间市场上,有些较为复杂的外汇衍生品现阶段流动性不高。文章以货币掉期和外汇期权这两种流动性尚不充分的衍生品为样本,通过对其交易情况和市场参与情况的分析,归纳出流动性不高的表现和产生原因。最后从市场组织方的角度提出改善银行间外汇市场衍生品流动性的初步设想。     

Bank market power,asset liquidity and funding liquidity: International evidence

Our investigation of the association between bank market power and liquidity in 101 countries reveals that a bank's initial gains of market power lead to increases in bank liquidity, but does so at a diminishing rate. Beyond an empirically determined threshold, further increases in market power are inversely associated with bank liquidity. From a cross-sectional viewpoint, banks that lack market power hold more liquid assets and are net lenders in the interbank market. In contrast, dominant banks hold less liquid assets and are net interbank borrowers. For a given level of market power, ceteris paribus, developed nation banks hold less asset liquidity and obtain more interbank funding liquidity than their developing country peers. These results remain equally relevant during the 2007–2009 global financial crisis (GFC).     

Stressed,Not Frozen: The Federal Funds Market in the Financial Crisis

We examine the importance of liquidity hoarding and counterparty risk in the U.S. overnight interbank market during the financial crisis of 2008. Our findings suggest that counterparty risk plays a larger role than does liquidity hoarding: the day after Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy, loan terms become more sensitive to borrower characteristics. In particular, poorly performing large banks see an increase in spreads of 25 basis points, but are borrowing 1% less, on average. Worse performing banks do not hoard liquidity. While the interbank market does not freeze entirely, it does not seem to expand to meet latent demand.     

2014年上半年货币市场利率运行报告

2014年上半年,在稳健的货币政策基调下,货币市场利率冲高回落,总体平稳,利率中枢下移,波幅收窄,6N份关键时点没有发生大的市场异动。这主要得益于央行货币政策操作稳定市场预期,以及金融机构完善流动性管理措施。此外,交易所市场与银行间市场的利率差异性仍然存在;境外货币市场利率走势背离于境内市场,利差保持较高水平。