Fear of climate change consequences and predictors of intentions to alter meat consumption

Reducing or altering meat consumption has the potential to significantly lower the impact humans have on climate change. Consumers, however, are unlikely to break their food habits unless they are aware of the problem and motivated by the solutions. Fear appeals are often used to overcome this, however, their effectiveness in the context of meat reduction and climate change is unclear. Given the widespread use of fear appeals in information policy, it is important to understand more. The aim of this study was to explore fear—or more specifically—the danger control process in a climate change—food context in order to understand the factors which motivate consumers to reduce or alter their meat consumption. Using a stratified random sample of 222 respondents in Southern Sweden, we develop a model for predicting intentions to adopt specific and general actions to reduce or alter meat consumption. Our results suggest that the general key to motivating consumers is through increasing their self-efficacy towards adopting meat alternatives and educating them on the importance their actions have in reducing the threat. We also found that appraising the threat to self (or those close) was significant, but surprisingly the effect size was greater when the threat concerned others (e.g. others in impoverished nations, animals).     

How can the EU climate targets be met? A combined analysis of technological and demand-side changes in food and agriculture

To meet the 2 °C climate target, deep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will be required for carbon dioxide from fossil fuels but, most likely, also for methane and nitrous oxide from agriculture and other sources. However, relatively little is known about the GHG mitigation potential in agriculture, in particular with respect to the combined effects of technological advancements and dietary changes. Here, we estimate the extent to which changes in technology and demand can reduce Swedish food-related GHG emissions necessary for meeting EU climate targets. This analysis is based on a detailed representation of the food and agriculture system, using 30 different food items.We find that food-related methane and nitrous oxide emissions can be reduced enough to meet the EU 2050 climate targets. Technologically, agriculture can improve in productivity and through implementation of specific mitigation measures. Under optimistic assumptions, these developments could cut current food-related methane and nitrous oxide emissions by nearly 50%. However, also dietary changes will almost certainly be necessary. Large reductions, by 50% or more, in ruminant meat (beef and mutton) consumption are, most likely, unavoidable if the EU targets are to be met. In contrast, continued high per-capita consumption of pork and poultry meat or dairy products might be accommodated within the climate targets. High dairy consumption, however, is only compatible with the targets if there are substantial advances in technology. Reducing food waste plays a minor role for meeting the climate targets, lowering emissions only by an additional 1–3%.     

Integrating climate change,food prices and population health

The inter-related nature of food, health and climate change requires a better understanding of the linkages and a greater alignment of policy across these issues to be able to adequately meet the pressing social and health challenges arising from climate change. Food price is one way through which climate change may affect health. The aim of this study of the global and Australian food systems is to provide a whole-of-system analysis of food price vulnerabilities, highlighting the key pressure points across the food system through which climate change could potentially have the greatest impact on consumer food prices and the implications for population health. We outline areas where there are particular vulnerabilities for food systems and food prices arising from climate change, particularly global commodity prices; agricultural productivity; short term supply shocks; and less direct factors such as input costs and government policies. We use Australia as a high-income country case study to consider these issues in more detail. The complex and dynamic nature of pricing mechanisms makes it difficult to predict precisely how prices will be impacted. Should prices rise disproportionately among healthy foodstuffs compared to less healthy foods there may be adverse health outcomes if less expensive and less healthy foods are substituted. Higher prices will also have equity implications with lower socio-economic groups most impacted given these households currently spend proportionately more of their weekly income on food. The ultimate objective of this research is to identify the pathways through the food system via which climate change may affect food prices and ultimately population health, thereby providing evidence for food policy which takes into account environmental and health considerations.     

Likely effects on obesity from proposed changes to the US food stamp program

Some have suggested that the US food stamp program (FSP) should be revised with a view to combating obesity among the poor. In this paper, we assess the likely impacts of allowing FSP participants to purchase only healthy foods when using food stamps. Our results indicate that FSP participants would probably increase their consumption of healthy food, but the implications for their purchases of unhealthy food are not clear. Market-wide consequences are even less clear, because changing what may be purchased using food stamps would lead to higher prices for healthy foods and lower prices for unhealthy foods and these price effects would feed back into consumer decisions, with adverse effects on consumption patterns of both participants and non-participants in the FSP. In addition, more restrictive rules on the use of food stamps would discourage participation in the FSP. We conclude that, while reforming the FSP may indeed to lead to better diets among participants, it is likely to be an ineffective and inefficient instrument for bringing about desired nutritional outcomes unless accompanied by additional policy instruments.     

Changes in food purchases at retirement in France

We estimate the impact of retirement on food expenditure and food quantities purchased, using detailed home-scan panel data on food purchases and household characteristics in France. We identify a causal relationship by exploiting the French legal minimum age for retirement as an exogenous shock to retirement behavior. Upon retirement, households significantly decrease their expenditure on food and the amount of food purchased. Households with lower pre-retirement income appear to be more severely affected. Our results indicate that the decrease in food quantities purchased at the aggregate level is driven by a decline in purchases of food from animal origins. A reduced consumption of animal based food products is likely to undermine the diet balance of retirees.     

Putting the 2007/2008 global food crisis in longer-term perspective: Trends in staple food affordability in urban Zambia and Kenya

Staple food prices in cities in eastern and southern Africa rose sharply between late 2007 and early 2009, leading to estimates of massive increases in food insecurity and hunger. However, in assessing the impacts of soaring food prices on urban consumers’ access to food it is important to consider food price changes relative to changes in per capita incomes. In this study, we use the case studies of Zambia and Kenya, where data are available on food prices, wage rates, incomes, and other indicators of urban purchasing power to answer two main questions: (i) how did staple food purchasing power at the height of the food price crisis compare to levels over the last 15 years? and (ii) did the food price crisis exacerbate an already declining trend in staple food purchasing power, or did it reverse a trend of stable or improving staple food affordability? Results indicate that staple food purchasing power in urban Zambia and Kenya improved markedly in the 10–12 years prior to the food price crisis. Most measures of bread and maize meal affordability at the start of the crisis in 2007 were at levels 1.0–4.3 times higher than in the mid-1990s. These gains for urban consumers were slashed but not completely reversed during the food crisis. Between 2007 and 2009, maize meal and bread were still more affordable in urban Zambia than all periods between 1994 and 2003. In urban Kenya, staple food purchasing power as of 2008/2009 was comparable to levels in 2000/2001–2004/2005 according to some indicators, while other measures suggest that the food price crisis reduced staple food purchasing power to levels lower than any other year in the period 1994/1995–2007/2008.     

Nutrition,agriculture and the global food system in low and middle income countries

The entire food value chain and diet of low and middle income countries (LMICs) are rapidly shifting. Many of the issues addressed by the nutrition community ignore some of the major underlying shifts in purchases of consumer packaged foods and beverages. At the same time, the drivers of the food system at the farm level might be changing. There is a need for the agriculture and nutrition communities to understand these changes and focus on some of their implications for health. This rapid growth of the retail sector will change the diets of the food insecure as much as that of the food secure across rural and urban LMIC’s. This short commentary contents that current research, programs and policies are ignoring these rapid dynamic shifts.     

Protein efficiency per unit energy and per unit greenhouse gas emissions: Potential contribution of diet choices to climate change mitigation

The production, transport and processing of food products have significant environmental impacts, some of them related to climate change. This study examined the energy use and greenhouse gas emissions associated with the production and transport to a port in Sweden (wholesale point) of 84 common food items of animal and vegetable origin. Energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for food items produced in different countries and using various means of production were compared. The results confirmed that animal-based foods are associated with higher energy use and GHG emissions than plant-based foods, with the exception of vegetables produced in heated greenhouses. Analyses of the nutritional value of the foods to assess the amount of protein delivered to the wholesale point per unit energy used or GHG emitted (protein delivery efficiency) showed that the efficiency was much higher for plant-based foods than for animal-based. Remarkably, the efficiency of delivering plant-based protein increased as the amount of protein in the food increased, while the efficiency of delivering animal-based protein decreased. These results have implications for policies encouraging diets with lower environmental impacts for a growing world population.     

The system-wide impact of healthy eating: Assessing emissions and economic impacts at the regional level

Encouraging consumers to shift their diets towards a lower meat/lower calorie alternative has been the focus of food and health policies across the world. The economic impacts of such changes on regions have been less widely examined, but are likely to be significant, especially where agricultural and food production activities are important for the region. In this study we use a multi-sectoral modelling framework to examine the environmental and economic impacts of such a dietary change, and illustrate this using a detailed model for Scotland. We find that if household food and drink consumption follows healthy eating guidelines, it would reduce both Scotland’s “footprint” and “territorial” emissions, and yet may be associated with positive economic impacts, generating a “double dividend” for both the environment and the economy. The economic impact however depends critically upon how households use the income previously spent on higher meat/higher calorie diets. Furthermore, the likely (but not modelled) benefits to health suggest the potential for a “triple dividend”.     

Viewpoint: Regulating meat consumption to improve health,the environment and animal welfare

Meat consumption has increased significantly in the last 50 years. This trend raises various health and environmental issues, as well as moral concerns regarding farm animal welfare. In this paper, we discuss the regulation of meat consumption in developed countries. Specifically, we discuss possible justifications for this regulation in terms of environmental, health and animal welfare considerations, as well as the effect of fiscal, informational and behavioral regulatory instruments. Finally, we present a list of challenges that policy makers and food scholars may need to confront in the future.     

Fairness and food choice

Although experimental studies have reported a wide array of other-regarding behavior, the pervasiveness of such behavior in the field is an open question. Using a stated-preference experiment, we first estimate people’s preferences, when purchasing food products, for the distribution of benefits accruing to participants in the food supply chain. Although none of the existing fairness models exhibit much predictive power, we find that people are in-fact concerned about the distribution of benefits resulting from food purchases, and that modifications to the models to fit the food context significantly improves explanatory power. Finally, we find that the measured preferences, along with elicited beliefs are significant predictors of people’s willingness-to-pay a premium for organic food.     

Aid,collective action and benefits to smallholders: Evaluating the World Food Program's purchase for progress pilot

Agricultural commodity markets in developing countries often operate in a constrained environment of prohibitive transaction costs. Consequently, smallholder farmers are only partly integrated into these markets, a situation that keeps them in a lower level of development equilibrium (poverty trap). Although cooperative institutional alternatives such as Farmers’ Organizations (FOs) may reduce transaction costs and revitalize agricultural production and commercialization, they rarely have been successful in fully delivering on these promises. Against this backdrop, the World Food Programmed (WFP) has recently implemented a multi-year and multi-country pilot to increase smallholder participation in commodity markets. The projects involved investing in physical and human capacities of Farmer Organizations (FOs) to aggregate commodities and add value, as well as locally purchasing food aid from the same. The combination of interventions was expected to increase the relative price of agricultural products, particularly staple crops. In this study, using Ethiopian panel survey data, we estimated the causal income and investment effects of the Ethiopian P4P intervention among smallholders. Using an entropy balancing (EB) model and semi-parametric difference-in-difference (DID) model, we show that the P4P intervention has increased per capita consumption by smallholders. Our additional analysis confirms that this effect is heterogeneous owing to elite capture within Farmer Organizations. We also find evidence of increased food consumption scores, increased investments in child schooling, and increased asset holding among program-participating smallholders relative to comparison farmers. Policy implications are discussed.     

Compounding food and income insecurity in Yemen: Challenges from climate change

This paper provides a model-based assessment of local and global climate change impacts for the case of Yemen, focusing on agricultural production, household incomes and food security. Global climate change is mainly transmitted through rising world food prices. Our simulation results suggest that climate change induced price increases for food will raise agricultural GDP while decreasing real household incomes and food security. Rural non-farm households are hit hardest as they tend to be net food consumers with high food budget shares, but farm households also experience real income losses given that many of them are net buyers of food. The impacts of local climate change are less clear given the ambiguous predictions of global climate models (GCMs) with respect to future rainfall patterns in Yemen. Local climate change impacts manifest itself in long term yield changes, which differ between two alternative climate scenarios considered. Under the MIR scenario, agricultural GDP is somewhat higher than with perfect mitigation and rural incomes rise due to higher yields and lower prices for sorghum and millet. Under the CSI scenario, positive and negative yield changes cancel each other out. As a result, agricultural GDP and household incomes hardly change compared to perfect mitigation.     

Promoting Energy Efficiency in an Emerging Market: Insights and Intervention Strategies

Promoting energy efficiency and conservation is an urgent imperative in responding to the need to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, particularly in emerging markets. This article provides insights into factors that may enhance or impede the purchase of energy-efficient household appliances in Vietnam. It also suggests intervention strategies to enhance the motivators and mitigate the barriers associated with energy-efficient appliance purchases. Data were collected from shoppers in popular electronics and appliance stores. The findings reveal that consumer purchasing behaviors are motivated by long-term savings, environmental protection, social influence, green self-identity and innovative technologies. Major barriers include lack of information, low level of credibility of energy rating labels, high prices, time consumption and limited product range.

This article is of interest to policy-makers, social-environmental organizations, manufacturers and retailers in the development of more effective strategies for promoting energy efficiency and conservation. It extends current knowledge about environmentally responsible behavior in emerging markets such as Vietnam.     

Consumer preferences for farm-raised meat,lab-grown meat,and plant-based meat alternatives: Does information or brand matter?

Despite rising interest in and sales of innovative non-animal-based protein sources, there remains a lack of information about consumer demand for these new foods and their ultimate market potential. This study reports the results of a nationwide survey of more than 1800 U.S. consumers who completed a choice experiment in which they selected among conventional beef and three alternative burger patties, (lab-grown, plant-based with pea protein, and plant-based with animal-like protein) at different prices. Respondents were randomly allocated to treatments that varied in the presence/absence of brands and information about the competing alternatives. Results from random parameter logit models indicate that, holding prices constant and conditional on choosing a food product, 72% chose farm-raised beef and 28% chose one of the alternatives: 16% plant-based (pea protein) meat alternative, 7% plant-based (animal-like protein) meat alternative, and 5% lab-grown meat. Adding brand names (Certified Angus Beef, Beyond Meat, Impossible Foods, and Memphis Meats) increased the share for choosing farm-raised beef to 80%. Environment and technology information had minor effects on conditional market shares but reduced the share of people not buying any options, indicating information pulled more people into the market. Even if plant- and lab-grown alternatives experienced significant (e.g., 50%) price reductions, farm-raised beef maintains the majority market share. Vegetarians, males, younger, and more highly educated individuals tend to have relatively stronger preferences for the plant- and lab-grown alternatives relative to farm-raised beef. More people opposed than supported taxing conventional beef for environmental and animal welfare objectives and more opposed than supported having plant- and lab-grown alternatives use the label ‘beef’     

Review: Consumption-stage food waste reduction interventions – What works and how to design better interventions

Food waste prevention has become an issue of international concern, with Sustainable Development Goal 12.3 aiming to halve per capita global food waste at the retail and consumer levels by 2030. However there is no review that has considered the effectiveness of interventions aimed at preventing food waste in the consumption stages of the food system. This significant gap, if filled, could help support those working to reduce food waste in the developed world, providing knowledge of what interventions are specifically effective at preventing food waste.This paper fills this gap, identifying and summarizing food-waste prevention interventions at the consumption/consumer stage of the supply chain via a rapid review of global academic literature from 2006 to 2017.We identify 17 applied interventions that claim to have achieved food waste reductions. Of these, 13 quantified food waste reductions. Interventions that changed the size or type of plates were shown to be effective (up to 57% food waste reduction) in hospitality environments. Changing nutritional guidelines in schools were reported to reduce vegetable waste by up to 28%, indicating that healthy diets can be part of food waste reduction strategies. Information campaigns were also shown to be effective with up to 28% food waste reduction in a small sample size intervention.Cooking classes, fridge cameras, food sharing apps, advertising and information sharing were all reported as being effective but with little or no robust evidence provided. This is worrying as all these methods are now being proposed as approaches to reduce food waste and, except for a few studies, there is no reproducible quantified evidence to assure credibility or success. To strengthen current results, a greater number of longitudinal and larger sample size intervention studies are required. To inform future intervention studies, this paper proposes a standardised guideline, which consists of: (1) intervention design; (2) monitoring and measurement; (3) moderation and mediation; (4) reporting; (5) systemic effects.Given the importance of food-waste reduction, the findings of this review highlight a significant evidence gap, meaning that it is difficult to make evidence-based decisions to prevent or reduce consumption-stage food waste in a cost-effective manner.     

First of the month effect: Does it apply across food retail channels?

In this study we use detailed daily scanner data on household food purchases to examine monthly food expenditure patterns across food retail channels. We compare food expenditure patterns in high and low-income households comparing those where Supplementary Nutrition Assistance (SNAP) is received in the first 10 days of the month versus households which receive SNAP over the first 15 days of the month. We find that food expenditure patterns vary systematically across the month within different retail channels by income and SNAP payment schedules. Low-income households in early SNAP distribution areas decrease their grocery and mass/club/superstore expenditures at the end of the calendar month and supplement this decrease with increased food expenditures in convenience stores and food away from home. Households in staggered SNAP payment areas show far fewer systematic patterns given the more distributed payment system.     

Healthy,sustainable and plant-based eating: Perceived (mis)match and involvement-based consumer segments as targets for future policy

Given the inseparable environmental and health impact of dietary habits, integrating health and sustainability goals has become a highly topical issue in policy development and communication to encourage consumers to adopt healthier and more sustainable diets. Increasing evidence indicates that it is possible to develop diets that are both environmentally sustainable and healthy, but their potential success largely depends on consumers’ willingness and ability to change their behavior. This study investigates consumer perceptions of the match, or mismatch, between healthy and sustainable diets, and gives insight into consumers’ motivation to eat healthily and sustainably, as measured by involvement. Data were collected in Spring 2014 through a cross-sectional quantitative online survey with samples representative for age, gender and region in four European Union (EU) countries (United Kingdom, Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands) (n = 2783). The images of a healthy diet, a sustainable diet and a plant-based diet were found to be highly compatible based on a strongly observed match between European consumers’ perceptions of these concepts. Half of the participants were highly involved in healthy eating and one third in both healthy and sustainable eating. Informational food policy actions targeting both healthy and sustainable food consumption behavior are recommended to address issues relevant to the target segments, taking into account their levels of involvement. Increasing consumers’ motivation and involvement in health and sustainability emerges as a key trigger for increasing healthy and sustainable eating.     

Can food safety shortfalls disrupt ‘Ag for Nutrition’ gains? Evidence from Eid al-Adha

The international health community has stressed the need to raise consumption levels of animal-source foods in developing countries. Development programs based on so-called ‘agriculture for nutrition’ strategies emphasize the importance of smallholder livestock production to achieve these goals. While much of the literature has highlighted the high nutritional potential of such foods, little attention has been paid to infrastructural deficiencies for handling and processing animal-source foods, particularly meat. Such shortfalls in food safety have the potential to counteract some health gains, especially if renewed efforts to increase animal consumption are not combined with improved processing capacity. The spike in meat consumption among Muslims worldwide on Eid al-Adha provides a natural experiment to test the extent to which such food safety concerns are justified. Meat processing on this holiday often exceeds the capacity of formal slaughter and processing infrastructure, and thus provides an excellent opportunity to observe the implications of a rapid intensification of meat production and consumption across several countries. Using Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from countries in Africa and Asia, we estimate the impact of this holiday on the incidence of diarrheal illness among children. Eid al-Adha provides a plausibly exogenous source of variation in home or informally sourced meat consumption among Muslims, a natural comparison group (Non-Muslims) and independence from seasonal influences (the holiday follows the lunar Islamic calendar). We find that relative to non-Muslims, diarrhea morbidity increases for Muslim children following Eid al-Adha by 18 percent. No such similar increase is found on Eid al-Fitr, a similarly important Muslim holiday without extensive home slaughter. These findings reinforce the importance of food safety concerns in livestock sector interventions.