Status,Daten und Entwicklungen der globalen Energieversorgung

Global energy consumption is growing. The growth in energy consumption is now covered roughly equally by renewable energy resources and fossil energy resources. Nevertheless, crude oil, natural gas and coal continue to form the backbone of energy supplies. This means that the dependency of energy supplies on fossil energy resources will continue for the foreseeable future. In Germany as well, there is no end in sight of the country decreasing its high dependency on imports of fossil energy resources despite the high growth rate of renewables—and due in part to the decline in domestic production and the withdrawal from nuclear power generation. Crude oil, natural gas, hard coal and lignite with a share of around 80%, still make the largest contribution to the German and global primary energy consumption.All of the renewables together cover around 17% of global energy consumption. Despite the almost inexhaustible potential, making energy generation from renewable sources available at a large scale and commensurate with demand is still in its infancy. By way of contrast, very large reserves of fossil energy resources have already been developed for many years, and are being used in growing quantities. The global comparison of already produced and therefore consumed energy resources and the still existing reserves and resources, reveal that large non-depleted energy potential still exists in all regions around the world. Whilst the potential hardly appears to be touched in Austral-Asia, in the CIS and North America, only a small portion has been produced to date even in Europe. This wealth in resources is primarily attributable to the large deposits of coal found on all continents, which, unlike conventional crude oil and natural gas, are not restricted to a few special regions. Although the Middle East is an extremely important region for crude oil and natural gas, the minor coal reserves in the area mean that its overall potential is comparatively small.     

World Energy Council’s Global Energy Scenarios to 2060

Since 1970, global energy consumption has more than doubled. Conventional resources, in particular oil, gas and coal, had a dominant share in supply and covered most of the growth in demand in the past. Even in 2015, these fossil fuels still accounted for more than 80% of global primary energy consumption. The contribution of renewable energies to the total electricity generation was 23% in 2015, the same share as in 1970. Developments in the coming decades will differ substantially, however. Total energy consumption will rise at a much more moderate pace than in the past, e.?g. by up to one third by 2060. Electricity consumption will double during this period. But even this is a considerable slowdown in growth compared with the five-fold increase seen between 1970 and 2015. And, unlike in the past, the emerging rise in consumption will essentially be covered by renewable energy sources. This is true especially for the electricity sector. This comparison with developments in the past shows the extent of the global energy transformation that may be expected in future. These developments are reflected in three global scenarios, which were published by the World Energy Council in October 2016. The results of this flagship study World Energy Scenarios to 2060 are mirrored with the main findings of the IEA’s World Energy Outlook and the U.S. EIA’s International Energy Outlook. The most important challenge indicated by the results of the mentioned studies is: the transformation, which is expected in the covered scenarios is not sufficient, in order to achieve the target of limiting the global temperature increase to less than 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels that was agreed by the international community of states in Paris at the end of 2015. It will be highlighted, which strategies could meet the requirement cost-efficiently—a prerequisite for its success.     

CO2-Einsparpotenziale des Energieträgers Erdgas

Given the governmental climate targets, the question arises how these targets can be achieved without affecting a secure and cheap energy supply. As natural gas causes less carbon emissions than any other fossil fuel it might be able to make a contribution in this regard. Currently, in the generation of heat and power natural gas plays a significant role, which will further increase in the future. Using several scenarios, we predict the development of the importance of natural gas and the consequences for carbon emissions. The calculations show that the share of natural gas for the supply of heat will increase from 46 % to 56 %. Efficiency increases together with changes in the structure of power generation can reduce heating-related carbon emissions by 8.3 % until 2020. For power generation, we calculate alternative scenarios. If the current structure of power generation is held constant, carbon emissions will increase by 0.8 % p.a. If instead natural gas completely replaces coal and lignite, the carbon emissions will be reduced by 1.9 % per year.     

Markt- und Systemintegration von erneuerbaren Energien im Rahmen der Systemtransformation – Ein Beitrag zur definitorischen Abgrenzung

The reconstruction of the electricity system is one of the main challenges of the German energy transition (Energiewende). The expansion of renewable electricity generation should enable the phase out of nuclear and fossil power generators in the long run. The Renewable Energy Sources Act (Erneuerbare Energien Gesetz) aims at increasing renewable generation up to a share of at least 80?% in gross electricity consumption by the year 2050. There are many possible ways to reach this target. Today, the characteristics of the future energy systems become apparent through the legal framework and long term energy scenarios.Economic, social and regulatory hurdles will need to be overcome to enable the transition of the electricity system. In this context, specific measures are evaluated with respect to their contribution on the system transformation, system integration and market integration. Up until now a consistent framework for evaluating political actions and scientific that should effectively support the energy political objectives is not present. The concepts of power system transformation, power system integration and market integration are differentiated and defined to close this gap. Based on this framework, a practical example is evaluated. The exact definitions will help to objectify the political and scientific debate. Furthermore, it contributes to develop regulatory and market mechanisms.     

可再生能源政府支持成本估算解析

提高政府支持成本估算的准确率,可为各国对未来新能源需求、供应、贸易以及投资决策提供更加准确的数据支持。《世界能源展望2010》对2007—2009年的可再生能源发电和生物燃料的政府支持成本进行了估算,并对2010-2035年的政府支持成本进行了预测。基于此,对《世界能源展望2010》中可再生能源政府支持成本的估算方法进行了介绍和评价,以期完善估算方法,为提高政府支持成本估算的准确度提供参考。     

开放的竞争市场维系能源供需均衡——《BP世界能源统计2012》解析

2011年全球能源行业跌宕起伏,但总体数据显示出一如往年的发展轨迹.全球GDP增速为3.7％,略高于2.5％的一次能源消费增长率,GDP增速和能源消费增长与过去10年的平均水平接近.2011年,政治动荡引发石油价格飙升,原油均价创历史新高;石油消费增长疲软,仅增长0.7％;尽管利比亚和其他一些地区的供应中断,在欧佩克增产的带动下,全球石油产量仍然增加了109.6万桶/日(1.3％).2011年全球天然气生产和消费增速均趋于缓和,美国市场一枝独秀,产量创历史新高,欧盟的天然气产量和消费量均为有史以来的最大降幅.煤炭以5.4％的增速再次成为增长最快的化石能源;核能发电量下降4.3％,可再生能源发电量则强劲增长17.7％.2011年,市场以其灵活性成功地应对了大规模供应中断,燃料替换、供需侧的反应以及贸易结构优化发挥了各自的作用,能源价格成为引导能源资源再分配的重要信号.     

对我国电力发展战略的一些思考

能源问题是我国发展方略的首要问题。为了阐明新时期我国能源发展问题,根据我国的实际情况,分析了我国化石能源利用的危机,阐述了水能利用是能源发展方略之首,大力发展具有固有安全性的核电,大型风电与小风电同时并进,积极推进太阳能发电等问题。分析了当今煤电存在的“市场煤,计划电”的矛盾,并给出了煤炭与发电企业逐渐融合的解决方案。最后总结出实现我国电力的科学发展应该坚持的原则。     

Geothermische Stromerzeugung in Deutschland — Stiefkind oder schlafender Riese?

This contribution analyses the development of power generation from geothermal energy in Germany. It considers research funding schemes, the support through the german Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) and the role of decisive actors as well as technical, economic and societal framework conditions. Compared to other renewable energy sources research funding for geothermal energy had played an inferior role in the past. After the potentials for geothermal power generation had been underlined by a study in 2003, geothermal power gained more political and institutional advocates. Subsequently it was equipped with a higher tariff in the EEG 2004 and led to realization of demonstration projects. Yet, the appliance of technologies for electrical power transformation, ORC and Kalina, are at the very beginning. Presently, the geothermal energy industry consists of a small amount of medium-sized businesses. Regional and nationwide energy providers, acting as operators and investors, do not exert much pressure in view of limited returns. Despite the compatibility with existing power supply systems, constraints to the expansion of geothermal energy use — above all exploration risks and high drilling costs- are likely to lead to a step-by step enhancement rather than a rush.     

全面建设小康社会的能源安全研究

根据我国经济发展时能源高度依赖的现状,分析了我国能源以煤为主的供需总体形势,针对能源行业存在的石油安全、电网发展、能源运输、环境影响、经济粗放型增长等问题,提出了我国能源安全战略。     

提高能效低碳发展携手应对能源挑战——《BP2030世界能源展望》解读

2012年版《BP 2030世界能源展望》显示:到2030年,全球一次能源消费将较2010年增长39％,年均增速为1.6％,几乎所有的(96％)消费增长都来自非经合组织国家.尽管可再生能源增速最快(年均增长8.2％),2030年化石能源仍将在一次能源消费结构中占80％的份额.全球液体燃料(石油、生物燃料和其他液体燃料)2030年需求总量将超过1 03亿桶/日,新增需求(1600万桶/日)几乎全部来自非经合组织国家,并主要由欧佩克和美洲国家的供应来满足.天然气将成为消费增长最快的化石燃料,年均增长为2.1％,液化天然气和非常规气将在供应中发挥重要作用.中印发展速度、规模以及中东的供应能力对2030年全球能源前景意义重大.到2030年,南北美洲将基本实现能源独立,亚太地区的能源缺口却不断扩大.这提醒我们:必须不断提高能源利用效率,降低单位GDP能源强度;加强与其他国家和地区的能源合作;对非常规资源应加强科技攻关和国际合作,实现其科学发展和持续发展;保障能源安全稳定供应并逐步实现低碳发展.     

2020年河南省煤炭供需平衡研究

以能源发展与河南省经济发展相适应为前提,在电力需求预测的基础上,对全省煤炭需求进行分析预测,得出煤炭仍是河南省的主要能源、电煤是拉动煤炭消费增长主要因素的结论。通过对全省煤炭行业发展的预测分析,进行全省煤炭供需平衡研究,得出远期河南省煤炭不能自身平衡的结论。提出河南省应合理有序开发煤炭,稳定煤炭产量;调整能源消费结构和电源结构,降低对煤炭的依存度;输煤输电并举,增强河南省能源供应保障水平。     

油气田与风光电力融合发展研究

随着风电和光伏发电成本竞争力越来越强,国家财政补贴退坡、平价上网推进力度也逐步加大,在光伏发电建设管理方面开始实行光伏发电补贴竞价政策。油气田企业自备电网可以通过市场化交易,就近消纳分布式光伏发电和风电,条件非常便利,具有降低用电价格的潜力,同时"绿证"和碳减排指标的降本成效显著。油气田开发过程中推广网电钻井和压裂,油藏在开采后期实施二氧化碳驱、减氧空气驱等三次采油措施,开发利用油区地热资源,以及利用枯竭油气藏埋藏二氧化碳,都将新增大量用电需求。油气田企业依托自备电网、油区道路、土地和市场等优势,发展风光发电业务潜力巨大。在油区部署煤炭地下气化业务的综合优势突出,有望在枯竭油气田基础上开创一项"清洁电力+煤炭地下气化+二氧化碳埋藏"绿色产业,实现油、气、煤化石能源与清洁能源融合发展,促进传统油气田企业向清洁能源生产企业的转型发展。     

煤电企业近三年运营情况分析

近年来,以煤炭为主的一次能源价格持续快速上涨,处于产业链下游的电力企业利润水平因此大幅下降,生产经营十分困难。电力和煤炭行业的上市公司拥有业内优质资产,是行业的代表。通过对几家上市的发电企业和煤炭企业2007年以来财务和经营指标的分析,探讨了煤炭企业和电力企业发展存在的问题和电力企业亏损的原因,提出了完善煤电价格机制、加大煤电一体化经营力度、调整电源结构等相关建议。     

大力降低能源消耗走可持续发展道路

2005年度世界一次能源消费总量为10．537 Gt(油当量),其中石油为3．837 Gt,占36．41％;天然气为2．4．75 Gt,占23．49％;煤炭2．930 Gt,占27．80％;核能0．627 Gt,占5．95％;水电0．669 Gt,占6．35％。中国能源消费形势严峻,2005年中国一次能源消费总量为2 225 Mt标准煤,其中煤炭占68．7％,石油占21．2％,水电和核电占7．3％,天然气占2．8％。中国石化既是能源生产大户也是能源消耗大户,2005年加工原油14．8．80 Mt,炼油综合能耗为68．59 kg(标油)／t,总能耗约10．21 Mt标油,与国外先进水平比较,有较大的差距。根据我国资源与能源紧缺的形势,必须在已取得成绩的基础上,进一步做好节能降耗工作。     

2010年电煤供需形势回顾及展望

简述了2010年宏观经济形势及电力需扣睛况,从供应侧和需求侧对2010年电煤供需状况进行了总结回顾,对2011年电煤供需形势进行了分析展望。预计2011年电煤消费将达19亿t左右,全国电煤供需总体平衡,冬夏用电高峰期局部地区受极端天气、运力紧张、煤价上涨等因素影响,可能出现电煤供需偏紧局面。     

2009年1—3季度电煤供应综合分析

2009年以来,受宏观经济影响,能源需求明显回落,电力及电煤供需保持宽松平衡态势。总结了1—3季度的电煤供应情况,深入分析了电煤供需格局,指出目前电煤供应中存在的主要问题,为应对即将到来的电力迎峰度冬,预测了今冬明春电煤供应形势。     

基于发电成本与环境效益的风电最佳接入容量分析

为充分了解风电接入电力系统后对发电成本及环境效益的影响,计算符合系统运行经济性的风电接入容量,建立了风电最佳接入容量优化模型。采用该模型分析了不同容量火电机组在不同功率下的煤耗特性变化,并通过对火电机组深度调峰补偿调动火电机组调峰积极性;引入火电排污成本以充分体现风电接入后的环境效益,加入弃风惩罚费用来保障风电优先调度。采用粒子群算法并结合主动搜索技术(active explore basic particle swarm optimization,AEPSO)对模型进行求解,有效解决了粒子群算法易陷入局部最优的问题。最后以某地区实际电力系统为例,计算得出了在最经济运行模式下的风电接入容量,验证了模型的合理性。该研究可为相关决策部门制定风电发展规划提供参考。     

Global developments in the competition for land from biofuels

The potential global demand for biofuels and the implications of this for land use and its interaction with food agriculture is reviewed. It is expected that biofuels will form an important element of global transport energy mix (in the order of 20–30% of total requirement) over the next 40 years and beyond. Over this time, there will be a transition from so called first generation biofuels, based on commodity agricultural crops with food/feed uses, to advanced biofuels, sometimes called second and third generation biofuels, based primarily upon lignocellulosic feedstocks. It remains unclear whether these advanced biofuels, based on lignocellulosic materials, will entirely replace first generation or if second generation will be supplemental to first generation. This expansion in biofuels will be coupled to a substantial increase in alternative fuels (electricity, hydrogen, biogas and natural gas) and modal shifts. Biofuel production from agricultural commodity crops that exhibit strong sustainability criteria will remain important (e.g. sugarcane) with supportive and competitive aspects for food security.Land requirement projections estimated for a range of potential biofuel development trajectories range widely and are inherently uncertain. Under the most active scenario that delivers substantive greenhouse gas reductions in transport by 2050 (relative to 2005 levels), approximately 100 Mha of additional land is projected. In the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, in which transport energy demand rises by 80% by 2050 from present levels, a land use requirement of 650 Mha is projected.Significant potential exists for producing biofuels that possess high productivity and sustainability profiles through continued research, development and demonstration. Policy and regulation at a global level, that focuses biofuel development on these goals in ways that are synergistic with food agriculture, will simultaneously help to decarbonise transport and maintain a diverse and financially robust agricultural (and forestry) sector.     

美国电煤市场及其对我国的启示

为解决当前中国煤电困局问题,在分析我国煤电企业现状及存在问题的基础上,借鉴美国电煤市场有效运营机制和手段,从完善煤电企业市场运营体制、改进电煤输送状况等方面给出了建议,以促进我国煤电市场有效协调和健康可持续发展.     

中国股市周期与经济周期的动态关联研究

本文运用动态条件相关估计方法（DCC）来考察中国股市周期与真实经济周期以及金融经济周期的动态关系。研究发现，在样本期间内（1996年1月～2010年12月），股市周期与金融经济周期以及真实经济周期的动态相关关系基本上为正相关关系，可见我国股票市场的周期波动很大程度上受到真实经济周期波动与金融经济周期波动的共同影响。与真实经济周期相比较而言，金融经济周期与股市周期的动态关联程度更高，而且在不同的牛熊市阶段，股市周期与真实经济周期以及金融经济周期的动态关联也各不相同，〖ＪＰ２〗体现了不同牛熊市阶段的运行特征。总体来看，股市周期与真实经济周期以及金融经济周期之间的动态关联在不断加强。虽然股市周期与真实经济周期以及金融经济周期的运行并不会完全同步，但是反映真实经济周期指标与金融经济周期指标的重要高低点是判断股市周期运行顶底的一个重要参考依据