Local Rural Labour Markets: Enterprising or Constraining?

This paper examines SMEs' experiences of labour markets and their adoption of technology, including ICTs, in two rural areas: South Warwickshire and North Devon. Findings are assessed within the context of existing theories of rural industrial growth, which have tended to stereotype firms on the basis of location, and have underplayed the role of 'non-local' factors such as supply chains in influencing both the behaviour and 'success' of individual SMEs. In contrast, this paper contends that understanding the true complexity of the SME sector is essential if efforts to foster and support enterprise in rural areas are to be successful.     

以生产性消费推动农村消费市场繁荣

农村消费市场的繁荣与否,关系到我国经济的整体繁荣。文章认为,由于我国农村生产性消费意愿不足,农民无持续增收和消费能力,加上农业的再加工能力不足与组织化程度低,造成农村的消费需求增长十分缓慢。通过刺激生产性消费,强化农业生产的社会化服务功能,加大农村的教育投入和金融支持力度,大力发展高效农业,才能从根本上破解农村消费难的现状,从而有效推动农村市场繁荣。     

Emerging markets, evolving institutions, and the new opportunities for growth in China's rural economy

In this essay, our goal is to assess the state of China's rural economy and examine whether rural China is capable of participating in the sequence of economic events that will lead to modernization. We examine how agricultural productivity has changed, the nature of the shift of labor moving from rural to urban areas, how commodity markets have evolved, and how the rural industrial sector is adjusting the recent reforms. According to our own work and that of others, we show how the rural economy is beginning to be fundamentally transformed and is contributing to China's modernization.     

垄断竞争、产业内贸易与相对工资差距

本文首先运用理论模型推导出垄断竞争市场条件下产业内贸易与行业相对工资差距之间的关系。理论结果显示,当产品的产出技能替代弹性(高技术工人相对雇佣量的变化率/产出的变化率)为正时,产业内贸易将会扩大相对工资差距;当产品的产出技能替代弹性为负时,产业内贸易将会缩小相对工资差距。然后以中美工业制成品产业内贸易为例对该结论进行验证,计量检验结果表明,我国制成品的产出技能替代弹性为正,中美工业制成品产业内贸易扩大了相对工资差距。     

DETERMINISTIC, STOCHASTIC, AND SEGMENTED TRENDS IN AGGREGATE OUTPUT: A CROSS-COUNTRY ANALYSIS

This paper examines whether output per capita in 126 countriesis better described as trend or difference stationary, usingappropriate finite-sample critical values. Depending upon whetherone uses solely a test with a trend stationary null, or solelyone with a difference stationary null, very different conclusionsare obtained. This outcome suggests that it is useful to considerthe tests complementary, rather than competing. We find thatwhen a definite characterization of GDP can be made, it is verylikely to indicate a difference stationary process. However,the likelihood of making definite conclusions does vary positivelywith both income level and data quality.     

Black markets: Illegality, information, and rents

The analysis of black markets typically treats illegality only in reduced form as an additional cost per transaction. We argue that this misses the essential feature of black markets: that the risk of detection depends upon the dissemination of information. Because the cost of information is increased, traders will change marketing technology from advertising to sequential approaches to potential customers. The trader's decision problem is his offer price: as he raises it he must expect to make more approaches per sale and thereby increase detection risk. This behavior is important because of its implications at the market level. The optimal offer price will be set at a level at which excess demand persists: would-be consumers are not always able to bid themselves into supplies. Hence, black markets are not sufficient to eliminate the shortages which arise from price controls. In an earlier paper the authors established that peasant supply response to crop prices would be perverse in the presence of shortages: black markets therefore need not restore normal responses. The paper includes evidence from rural Tanzania.     

西部地区农村金融制度缺陷浅析

西部地区农村经济的发展,离不开西部农村金融的支持,尤其是近年来我国西部欠发达地区的农村经济发展迅速,但和其相配套的农村金融制度在许多方面制约和束缚着农村经济的发展,西部农村金融制度中现存的西部农村地区典型的二元金融结构模式、金融市场缺乏竞争主体、金融机构监管不力等现象已经严重地阻碍了西部农村经济的发展,针对这些问题,关键是要大力发展西部农村非正规金融、加强西部农村金融机构的监管、完善农村信贷投入保护机制等方面进行改革,从而解决西部农村地区农民贷款难、提高西部农村地区金融机构工作效率的问题,西部农村地区的经济才能取得更好更快的发展。     

Firm agglomeration and local poverty reduction: evidence from an economy in transition

We examine the linkages between firm agglomeration and the welfare of households in Vietnam. We measured firm agglomeration by per capita firm output at the district level and household welfare by per capita income, expenditure, and poverty. We find that firm agglomeration helps households move from the informal sector to the formal sector. As a result, there is a positive effect of firm agglomeration on per capita income, per capita expenditure, and poverty reduction, albeit of a small and time‐decreasing magnitude. The effect of firm agglomeration on per capita expenditure tends to be higher for households with men, younger, and more educated heads than households with women, older, and less educated heads. Households in rural areas and those that do not have crop land are more likely to benefit from firm agglomeration than those living in urban areas and having crop land.     

Expenditure Inequality in Indonesia, 2008–2010: A Spatial Decomposition Analysis and the Role of Education

Based on the 2008–2010 Susenas panel data, this study examines expenditure inequality from spatial perspectives in Indonesia, using three decomposition methods: (i) a conventional Theil index decomposition; (ii) an alternative Theil index decomposition proposed by Elbers et al. (2008); and (iii) the Blinder?Oaxaca decomposition. Our results show that overall inequality in per capita expenditure increases between 2008 and 2010, which coincides with a rising trend in the official Gini coefficient. The contribution of inequality within urban and rural areas to total inequality is larger than that of inequality between urban and rural areas. Looking within urban and rural areas, urban inequality is significantly higher than rural inequality. Java‐Bali in particular records very high urban inequality. Overall, urban inequality increases, urban–rural inequality remains stable, rural inequality decreases, and inequality at the national level increases. Although urban–rural inequality has a relatively low share in overall inequality, the share is not small enough to ignore its impact. Furthermore, when using the alternative decomposition method, the contribution of urban–rural inequality increases substantially. The present study also found that educational differences appear to have played an important role in expenditure inequality within urban areas and between urban and rural areas.     

中国社会保障支出与城乡居民收入差距关系的实证分析

文章首先分析了中国城乡收入差距现状,之后选取了城乡人均物质资本差距、城乡人力资本差距、城乡劳动力市场一体化程度和城乡社会保障差距四个影响城乡居民收入差距的影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明,城乡人均物质资本差距和城乡劳动力市场一体化程度对城乡居民收入差距有正向影响,城乡人力资本差距和城乡社会保障差距对城乡居民收入差距有负向影响。     

Determinants of HIV Knowledge and Condom Use among Women in Madagascar: An Analysis Using Matched Household and Community Data

Abstract: We estimate the determinants of HIV/AIDS knowledge and related behavior (use of condoms) among women in Madagascar, a country where prevalence remains low but conditions are ripe for a rapid increase in infections. In both rural and urban areas, more educated and wealthier women are more likely to know about means of preventing infection, less likely to have misconceptions about transmission, and more likely to use condoms. Community factors such as availability of health centers and access to roads also are associated with greater HIV knowledge. However, most of the large rural‐urban difference in mean knowledge is due not to location per se but to differences in schooling and wealth; rather than simply being geographically targeted, AIDS education efforts must be designed to target and be understood by uneducated and poor subpopulations.     

Growth or stagnation? Farming in England, 1200–1800

Estimates of English income in Broadberry et al.’s British economic growth, 1270–1870 are founded upon a fourfold growth of farm output, and output per farm worker, over this interval. This article shows, using four separate tests, that farm output growth must have been much more limited. The tests are, first, whether in 1300 there was enough work at harvest to employ all the labour force; second, whether the value of output per worker in agriculture was greater than the annual earnings of workers; third, whether the implied relative outputs per acre of arable versus pasture were reasonable; and fourth, whether a much shorter medieval work year was possible. An alternative index of farm output consistent with the labour supply, wages, and farm rents is derived. This shows much less growth during the period 1270–1800. Overall economic growth in England during these years must consequently have been far less than Broadberry et al. estimate.     

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ON THE URBAN–RURAL DISPARITY IN HUMAN CAPITAL IN CHINA

With China's economic development and capital accumulation in the industrial sectors, the human capital level of the labours moving from the rural areas could no longer meet the demand of the industrial sectors. Therefore, “structural shortage of technical labour” emerged in the labour market as a result of excess of demand for high‐skilled workers. Previous literature mostly focused on the relationship between rural human‐capital level and labour movement, income change and economic growth, but in this article, the authors focus on the study of the relative disparity of urban and rural human capital and labour movement, as well as the effect of the change of urban–rural human capital gap on industrial output, profit and social welfare. This article shows that bridging the urban–rural gap in respect of human capital level could not only improve the situation of the “structural shortage of technical labour,” but also have a positive effect on the general social welfare.     

基于非参数回归的江苏省用电量分析

基于2000—2019年江苏省用电量和影响因素的数据,运用非参数回归方法探究了一维变量城镇人均住房面积与用电量的关系。结果表明非参数回归方法的拟合效果是很理想的。运用半参数回归模型探究了多维变量人口数量、人均GDP、城镇人均住房面积、农村人均住房面积与用电量的关系。结果表明,人口数量和人均GDP对于江苏省用电量具有显著的参数效应;城镇人均住房面积和农村人均住房面积对于江苏省用电量具有显著的非参数效应;两者之间具有交互作用。     

Telecommunications dynamics,output and employment

In EU countries, opening up of telecommunications markets and regulations have helped to reduce the price of digital services which is an important quasi-input factor in all firms. Integrating the use of telecommunications in a macroeconomic production function is the analytical starting point for our interdependent analysis of output, use of telecommunications and employment. Based on unit root and co-integration analysis as well as an error correction three-equation model which is estimated simultaneously, we present results both on long run links and short run links between telecommunications, output and employment. Considering various scenarios suggests that a fall in the relative price of telecommunications can generate a cumulated employment increase of 760,000 within seven years in Germany. The institutional setup for regulating telecommunications could be improved in Germany and other EU countries; investor-friendly regulation is required.     

我国城镇劳动力市场供给分析——兼论“民工荒”的成因及对策

双重劳动力市场是我国二元经济在劳动力市场上的反应,随着统筹城乡经济发展战略的实施,城乡人力资本差别将逐步缩小,劳动供给弹性有逐渐缩小和趋同的趋势,双重劳动力市场最终将会被劳动力一体化市场所取代,其前提条件是加强农民工文化素质培养和职业技能培训,提高农民工工资和福利水平,降低进城门槛和减少转移成本,增加政府转移支付和各种社会保障。     

Rural Cottage Industry in Transition: The Roof Tile Industry in Kabupaten Boyolali,Central Java

This paper attempts to explain changes in rural cottage industry (RCI) employment by means of a Central Javanese case study of the rural tile industry. It demonstrates that a decline in employment in this industry, despite a favourable rural industrial environment, is largely due to transition from household-based production to production by more specialised and productive units, with some functions, e.g. marketing and transport, being contracted out, and providing employment for those originally involved in household-based production. Transition has occurred in areas with access to wider markets and improved technology.     

Urbanisation and urban management in KwaZulu Natal

Urbanisation and population movements in KwaZulu Natal from 1980 to 1991 and their implications for urban management are examined. People moved out of Natal rural areas and most small towns and into urban and rural KwaZulu areas. The most rapid growth has been in the Durban Functional Region, especially its KwaZulu districts. There has been movement into KwaZulu rural areas, both around urban centres and in outlying areas. A number of the larger towns have experienced population in‐migration even where employment and growth in output have been static or have declined. These trends raise questions about the explanatory value of urban transition models and suggest rather more complex patterns of movement.     

Trade in reed-based craft products in rural villages in the Eastern Cape,South Africa

Selling traditional craft products made from fibrous plants is an important source of income for economically vulnerable rural women. In the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, Cyperus textilis and Juncus kraussii have been used for centuries to make products of functional and cultural importance, such as sleeping mats and baskets. In the former Transkei village clusters of Mpozolo and Ntubeni, female crafters harvest the raw material and make and sell the products in their communities and in nearby towns. Interviews with 40 of them revealed what the trade contributes to their livelihoods and what enhances or limits their success. The findings show that crafting contributes vital income to vulnerable households, on average 26 ± 4 per cent of annual household cash income, over 40 per cent for the poorest households and 5–15 per cent for wealthier households. Lack of access to non-traditional markets was identified as the main constraint on the trade.     

Skill, trade, and international inequality

Heckscher-Ohlin trade theory suggests that greater opennesstends to enlarge inter-country differences in stocks of skill(or human capital), which new growth theory suggests would causeinter-country divergence of per capita incomes. Econometricanalysis of data on about 90 countries during 1960-90 confirmsthat greater openness tends to cause divergence of secondaryand tertiary enrolment rates between more-educated and less-educatedcountries, and also between land-scarce and land-abundant countries.These findings may have implications for the optimal choiceof trade policies by poor countries.