LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY CHANGES AND WORKING TIME: THE CASE OF GREECE

In terms of the annual hours worked per employee, Greece ranks first among EU-15 countries and second among OECD countries. In this context, the austerity measures it adopted (as suggested by the EU and IMF) imply, among other things, a reduction in the over-hours. If such reductions were not to be accompanied by increases in labour productivity, output would be reduced considerably. This paper therefore addresses the question: “What change in sectoral labour productivity levels would have been required to deliver the actual change in final demands in Greece between 1995 and 2005, if working hours in each sector had been reduced to their EU averages?” In this framework, we develop a methodology for calculating labour productivity change by sector of economic activity in an input–output context. Next, we apply it to the Greek economy for the time period 1995–2005, the most recent period for which the required data are available. We find that the required productivity changes are the most substantial for the hotels and restaurants sector, followed by machinery manufacturing and the trade sectors.     

A Structural Decomposition of Energy Consumption Based on a Hybrid Rectangular Input-Output Framework: Japan's Case

This paper proposes an I-O SDA model, based on a commodity technology assumption, to identify the sources of changes in the energy demand structure, the non-energy input structure, the non-energy product-mix and the non-energy final demand of embodied energy requirements. The model contains two features. First, the hybrid rectangular input-output framework expressed in both monetary and physical terms is introduced to relax the effects of different energy prices among industrial sectors on the input structure in physical terms. Second, the demand structure of the input-output system is decomposed into the structure of energy sectors and other sectors by applying the hierarchy system with feedback loops of non-energy sectors. We identify the sources of the changes in Japan's energy use structure between 1985 and 1990. The major findings are that the total energy requirement has increased, mainly because of the changes in the non-energy final demand, while the product-mix changes have opposite effects, that is, energy savings.     

Sources of Structural Change for the UK Service Industries 1979–84

Over the period 1979 to 1984 the UK economy experienced severe structural change in that the oil and services sectors increased their share of employment and output, whilst the share of manufacturing fell by about 5 percentage points. This paper uses input–output tables for 1979 and 1984 to decompose the changes in output of total marketed services and the component industries into the changes due to price changes and those due to volume changes. The volume changes are, in turn, decomposed into those internal to the service industries, e.g. changes in demand for business services by communication, and those external to the industries, e.g. changes in demand for services by manufacturing. The analysis is done at a 101-industry level with results presented in the paper for the five service industries, Distribution and Catering, Transport, Communications, Business Services and Other Market Services. The paper is intended to give insight into the answers to the following questions: How much of the increase in service output has been due to the reallocation of activities previously done within manufacturing? In what respects were services insulated from the effects of the general recession 1979-812? Has the recent growth in services output been due to more consumers' expenditure and other. final demand or to other factors? The main conclusion is that changes in Input–Output coefficients were very important for structure change in UK services, almost entirely because they dominated the fastest-growing sector, business services.     

Pollution-related variable input-output model: The Tulsa SMSA as a case study

Regional planners face conflicting goals of promoting regional growth and maintaining a cleaner environment since such growth usually causes polluted air. To help understand this complex relationship, pollution-related variable input-output model is developed. An interesting feature of this model is its ability to respond to both income and substitution effects. The pollution may be created not only by an increase in final demand (income effect) but also by a change in input cost (substitution effect). The conventional pollution related input-output model ([2.]) fails to capture the pollution effect associated with the substitution effect. Using the Tulsa SMSA as a case study, the operational impact of entry of a bicycle industry in the area to observe the development potential of other industries and resulting impact on air quality is simulated. Industrial impact was measured in terms of industrial output, personal income, employment, and regional import and export. The pollution impact was measured in terms of particulates, sulfur oxides, hydrocarbon, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxides. The simulation analysis of antipollution control measures emphasized the substitution effect of the pollution-related variable input-output model. As input cost is increased due to antipollution control measures, equilibrium prices are increased, and technical coefficients are changed as a result of substituting behavior of firms. A change in technical coefficients affects both the output and the pollutants.     

The Sources of Change in Canadian Industry Output

Canadian input–output tables for 1961, 1971, 1976, and 1981 are used to apply the techniques of Feldman et al., (1987) to decompose the sources of change in Canadian industrial output. The results of the decompositions are in general agreement with the finding by Feldman et al., that, while changes in output levels may be attributed primarily to changing final demands, technical coefficient effects are relatively more important among the fastest growing and declining industries. For Canada, however, technical coefficient effects are generally more important in the declining industries, and less so for the fastest growing industries. Furthermore, technical coefficient effects have become relatively more important in a greater number of industries over time, especially among industries in which output levels have been falling. The results also suggest that the combined bridge and technical coeficient effect overstates the actual effect of shifts in the structure of industry production. When bridge coefficient effects are separated from the technical coefficient effects and included in total final demand effects, the results provide additional evidence that final demand continues to be the major source of both absolute and relative rates of output growth for the majority of Canadian industries.     

Introducing the supply side into the LBS Model

This Briefing Paper describes a new version of the London Business School model, which incorporates our most recent research on the supply side. The changes reflect the desire to improve the specification of the supply-side of the model, and to capture the effects of taxes on the incentives to save, invest and to work, while still retaining the basic features of the income-expenditure framework. The main features of the new model are: - Gross domestic product is determined as the sum of the outputs of five sectors. Previously GDP was determined by the demand side as the sum of the expenditure components. - Domestic demand for the output of the private sector depends on domestic absorption and on the price of this output relative to import prices. Overseas demand for exports depends on world economic activity and on the price of exports relative to the world price of exports. - Supply depends on the capital stock, real unit labour costs and real raw material prices. In the short run, input prices are allowed to affect the mix between goods which are exported and those which are supplied to the domestic market. In the long run, however, the mix depends only on the price of exports relative to the price of domestically supplied goods (i.e., relative profitability). - In the short run, disequilibrium in the goods market is reflected in adjustments to prices, inventories and the external balance. - Since gross domestic product is determined by summing the output of each sector, output decisions are reconciled with expenditure decisions by making imports the difference between final expenditure and aggregate supply. - In the long run, increases in government expenditure crowd out private expenditure, but the effect takes several years to come through. - A cut in corporation taxes which is not financed by higher taxes elsewhere boosts the supply side by raising investment and the capital stock, but not by enough to raise revenues sufficiently to pay for the tax cut. Private sector saving increases but not by enough to fund higher public sector borrowing, so the current account goes into deficit. - In the short run, both supply and demand factors influence economic activity; in the long run, the path of the economy depends only on population growth, capital accumulation and technical progress.     

Structural change and blurred sectoral boundaries: assessing the extent to which knowledge-intensive business services satisfy manufacturing final demand in Western countries

This paper focuses on the vertical integration of knowledge-intensive business services (KIBS) into manufacturing sectors, using a subsystem approach to input–output analysis. It aims at correctly assessing the process of structural change that has occurred in the four main European countries (France, Germany, Italy and the UK) over time (1995–2005). It does not focus on KIBS sectors per se, but on their function as carriers and sources of knowledge which influences the performance of sectors, value chains and clusters across industries and within countries. The analysis shows that KIBS’ contribution to satisfying the final demand of manufacturing is in general largely underestimated; that KIBS vertical integration into manufacturing has increased over time in all the countries investigated except the UK; and that the extent to which manufacturing sectors outsource to KIBS is significantly affected by their technological intensity.     

GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND ECONOMIC STRUCTURE IN URUGUAY

Using input–output analysis, we identify the key sectors in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the Uruguayan economy. The responsibilities of each sector in terms of its emissions are decomposed into an own component, generated during the activities of the sector, and an indirect component, generated by the induced activities in other sectors. This has important implications for the design of mitigation polices, as the appropriate policy measures are contingent on the nature of the pollution. Technical improvements and best practices are effective only when applied to directly polluting sectors, while demand policies may be more appropriate for indirectly polluting sectors. In addition, we analyze pollution generated during the production of exports. The results show that demand policies are going to be effective in the Building, the Hotel and restaurants, and the Wholesale and retail trade; and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles sectors. These policies complement GHG emissions’ mitigation policies in directly polluting sectors (mainly the Cattle farming and the transport-related sectors). Finally, methane and nitrous oxide emissions are mainly the consequence of production for exports, while carbon dioxide emissions are mainly driven by production for domestic consumption.     

Reconsidering Import Dependency in Turkey: The Breakdown of Sectoral Demands with Respect to Suppliers

The common practice for finding direct and indirect import requirements in response to domestic final demand changes involves multiplication of the direct imports coefficients matrix by the Leontief inverse matrix of domestic coefficients. The outcome is usually referred to as the import dependency matrix, a typical element of which gives intermediate import demand, induced by the domestic final demand (policy) sector (column), from the foreign (origin) sector (row). We propose an alternative methodology to capture all three dimensions of import dependency, i.e. origin, destination and policy. The information content of the import dependency matrix is expanded by information on domestic sectors (destination) which demand intermediate imports. Calculations reveal some interesting features of import dependency in Turkey, namely that policy sectors mostly coincide with destination sectors, that oil refinery emerges as a leading destination sector for all, and that raw petroleum is a leading origin sector.     

Sources of Structural Change and Output Growth of China's Economy: 1987-92

This paper examines the sources of structural changes in output growth of China’s economy over 1987–92 using a decomposition method within the input-output (IO) framework. The model uses three comparable IO tables of 1987, 1990, and 1992 as the main data sources; it accounts for output changes from a demand side perspective and decomposes the growth of output into consumption demand, investment demand, export, import, and intermediate use (indicated by changes in IO coefficients). Special attention is given to identifying the effects of government policies on economic growth and structural change. It is found that overall output growth was multi-components driven rather than single-factor led; the share of the contribution to output growth from consumption and investment expansion declined and that from export and import increased. Whilst the efficiency of factor utilisation remains an issue of further research, a remarkable rise in IO coefficient share indicates a deepening and strong interdependence between industrial sectors over the data period. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

ENDOGENIZING CONSUMPTION IN THE INPUT‐OUTPUT MODEL: THEORY AND APPLICATION

Since the basic model of input‐output analysis does not take into consideration the income effect on consumption expenditure, we constructed a model which endogenizes consumption and breaks down integrated production inducement into Leontief and Keynesian effects in a generalized context and in two solution approaches. Using short‐term marginal consumption propensities, we estimated that Keynesian effects make up about 14% of the integrated inducement effects for Japan. The public services sector, which is not influential in the basic model, becomes very influential in consideration of Keynesian effects. Manufacturing and service sector products are the main targets of the expanded consumption. The impact of a change in exogenous final demand can be easily simulated by applying the suggested apparent input coefficient matrix to the integrated inverse matrix.     

北京市生态足迹的变动与预测分析

本文将投入产出分析技术引入生态足迹模型,使用北京市历年投入产出表数据对1995年到2005年期间北京市生态足迹规模的变化、主要影响因素进行分析并做出情景预测。结果表明:北京市生态足迹的最终需求、流入量与流出量都持续增加,农业和其他服务业的生态足迹部门构成呈下降趋势,其他部门均有所提高;资源生产能力的提高,使生态足迹有减少的趋势;最终需求变化,是引起生态足迹增加的最主要的因素;在未来,北京市产业发展落实三二一的发展方针,优化产业结构和经济发展模式后,能够更好地处理经济建设与资源利用、生态环境保护的关系。提出倡导创意农业、技术创新和促进生产性服务业发展的政策建议。     

DISAGGREGATING INPUT–OUTPUT MODELS WITH INCOMPLETE INFORMATION

Disaggregating a sector within the Leontief input–output (IO) framework is not a straightforward task since there is more than one possibility for the unknown technical coefficients of the disaggregated IO table, and more information than what is embodied in the aggregated IO table is thus required. This paper presents a methodology for disaggregating sectors into an arbitrary number of new sectors when the only available information about the newly formed sectors is their output weights. A random walk algorithm is used to explore the polytope containing the admissible combinations for the unknown technical coefficients of the disaggregated IO table. These combinations are then used to construct the probability distribution of the coefficients of the inverse Leontief matrix. The methodology is illustrated by disaggregating the electricity production sector of China's 2007 IO table and by looking at the probability distribution of the CO₂ emission intensity factors of the sectors of the economy.     

A Property of the Leontief Inverse and its Applications to Comparative Static Analysis

We arbitrarily choose a submatrix of order 2 in the Leontief inverse matrix B . If a main diagonal element in the submatrix is a main diagonal element in B , then the determinant of the submatrix is non-negative; in particular, if the two main diagonal elements in the submatrix are all the main diagonal elements in B , then the determinant of the submatrix is greater than or equal to 1. This property can be used in the comparative static analysis for the input-output model. For example, when the change only occurs in one sectoral final demand or one corresponding row of the input coefficient matrix, which leads to a change of this sectoral gross output, the equivalent conditions that the absolute value of the rate of change of this sectoral gross output is larger than or equal to all other sectoral change rates and larger than at least one sectoral rate of change are shown. It is impossible to derive the exact results for the comparative static analysis if the property is not applied. A previous fault confirms this point.     

Neoclassical Growth Accounting and Frontier Analysis: A Synthesis

The standard measure of productivity growth is the Solow residual. Its evaluation requires data on factor input shares or prices. Since these prices are presumed to match factor productivities, the standard procedure amounts to accepting at face value what is supposed to be measured. In this paper we estimate total factor productivity growth without recourse to data on factor input prices. Factor productivities are defined as Lagrange multipliers to the program that maximizes the level of domestic final demand. The consequent measure of total factor productivity is shown to encompass not only the Solow residual, but also the efficiency change of frontier analysis and the hitherto slippery terms-of-trade effect. Using input-output tables from 1962 to 1991 we show that the source of Canadian productivity growth has shifted from technical change to terms-of-trade effects.     

Reconsideration of Non-negative Solutions for the Augmented Leontief Model

We consider the Leontief model augmented with pollution-generation and pollution-abatement sectors. The conditions to ensure the existence of non-negative solutions for the total output and for the vector of abatement activities, depending on the exogenously given final demand and environmental standards, are presented. They are extensions and modifications of the conditions for a single pollutant derived, for example, by Miller and Blair.     

Interregional Interdependence and Regional Economic Growth: An Interregional Input-Output Analysis of the Kyushu Region

The main objective of this paper is to examine the effects of the changes in economic conditions and government policies on the output growth of the Kyushu region between 1965 and 1990. This study uses the extended growth-factor decomposition method based on a three-region Japanese interregional input-output system consisting of Kyushu, Kanto, and the rest of Japan. The growth pattern of Kyushu changed noticeably over the period. The primary drivers of growth changed from the expansion of final demand within Kyushu to direct and indirect effects from outside Kyushu. This unambiguously indicates that Kyushu has facilitated interregional and international interdependence. The emergence of the processing and assembling sector, together with the construction of new networks of trunk railway lines, expressways, and communications, promoted closer interregional industrial linkages between Kyushu, Kanto, and the rest of Japan. In addition, the offshore transfer of production from Kyushu to Southeast Asia after the Plaza Accord Agreement strengthened Kyushu's international industrial linkages.     

Manufacturing linkages, industrial dynamics and the transmission of growth

In order to identify the ‘propulsive’ industries of Perroux and the industrial hierarchy of Aujac, an interindustry connectivity matrix is set up using interindustry transactions data from the United Kingdom national input-output matrix. By powering this binary matrix a measure of the connectivity of each industrial sector is created. The best-connected industries are found to lie largely within the metal manufacture and engineering sectors. At the same time key industrial sectors which though small in output occupy critical positions within the matrix and the industrial core are identified. The implications of the findings for regional policy are then discussed.     

Input–output interactions and optimal monetary policy

This paper deals with the implications of factor demand linkages for monetary policy design in a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model. Part of the output of each sector serves as a production input in both sectors, in accordance with a realistic input–output structure. Strategic complementarities induced by factor demand linkages significantly alter the transmission of shocks and amplify the loss of social welfare under optimal monetary policy, compared to what is observed in standard two-sector models. The distinction between value added and gross output that naturally arises in this context is of key importance to explore the welfare properties of the model economy. A flexible inflation targeting regime is close to optimal only if the central bank balances inflation and value added variability. Otherwise, targeting gross output variability entails a substantial increase in the loss of welfare.     

The supply multiplier with a self-employed private sector

Conclusion By modelling the private sector on the basis of self-employment, rather than the wage employment assumed by Hare (1987), we are able to proceed without making strong restrictions on functional forms. Our main conclusion is that the supply multiplier equationis affected by the inclusion of the private sector. The immediate effect of an increase in state sector goods purchases by the government is that there is an equal reduction in the amount of state sector goods available for the household sector. This is assumed to affect household demand for private sector output and household supply of labour to the private sector (as well as affecting household labour to the state sector, as in the Barro-Grossman model). The change in labour supply to the private sector affects the supply of goods by the private sector. The net result is that an excess demand (or supply) is created for private sector output and so the price of this output rises (or falls). In general, a change in private sector price leads to a change in state sector labour supply and output, a result, which, by definition, does not occur if the private sector is not included in the model. Thus, the supply multiplier in general takes a different value from that found by Barro and Grossman.Given that the rate of change of labour supply to the state sector with respect to the price of the private sector good is negative we obtain the following conclusion. (a) If a marginal decrease in the availability of state output results in an excess supply of private sector output (before price changes), the supply multiplier is not as negative as in the Barro-Grossman model and may even be zero or positive. (b) If, however, an excess demand for private sector output is created, the supply multiplier is actually more negative than in the Barro-Grossman model. Should, instead, the rate of change of labour supply to the state sector with respect to the price of the private sector good be positive these conclusions are reversed, in the sense that the terms excess supply in (a) and excess demand in (b) are interchanged.(The views expressed in this paper should not necessarily be attributed to the Department of Trade and Industry.) We would like to thank an anonymous reference for helpful comments, particularly in pointing out an inconsistency in our treatment of the individual and the aggregate behaviour of households in an earlier version of the paper.