北京市生态足迹的投入产出分析

生态足迹是可持续发展最重要的测度指标之一.本文将投入产出分析技术引入生态足迹模型,使用北京市2005年投入产出延长表等数据衡量了北京市的可持续发展状况.结果表明:北京市2005年生态足迹总需求为3853.8万公顷.约为北京市土地总面积的23倍;人均生态足迹为2.51公顷,高于其生态承载力.北京的经济发展尚处于不可持续状态.     

基于生态足迹模型的资源压力及产业结构研究——以新疆为例

通过生态足迹模型,对2000²010年新疆产业生态足迹的动态变化进行时序分析,然后引用完全分解模型对生态足迹动态效应进行分解分析,研究经济规模、产业结构和足迹强度三个因素在不同时期对总足迹变化的影响程度。结果显示:新疆总的足迹呈上升趋势,产业生态足迹变化各异,在第一、三产业足迹下降的同时第二产业足迹增加较快;在生态足迹变化的分解效应中,经济规模效应是推动足迹增长的主导因素,产业结构效应在波动中也缓慢拉动足迹增长,而技术效应则驱使足迹下降。产业结构与资源压力状况不协调,应加快结构调整,促进产业转型升级,实现产业可持续发展。     

北京市人地关系现状及预测——基于生态足迹和GM模型的分析

采用改进过的生态足迹模型对北京市的人地关系现状进行了分析,并应用GM(1,1)模型对其耕地面积和人口数量的未来变动趋势进行了预测。结果表明,北京市近十年来耕地生态足迹逐年增加,其中区域耕地生态足迹的变化幅度比人均耕地生态足迹的变化幅度大;耕地生态承载力逐年降低,其中人均耕地生态承载力的降幅较区域耕地生态承载力的降幅更加明显。耕地生态足迹与耕地承载力异向变化,加剧了生态赤字逐年加大的幅度。在此基础上提出了控制人口规模、提高耕地产出能力及保持耕地产品地区间流动性等措施。     

北京市生态足迹变化及其社会经济驱动因子分析

改革开放以来,北京市经济有了快速发展,但与此同时,出现了资源过度消耗、环境恶化等问题。运用生态足迹方法对北京市的可持续发展状况进行研究,结果表明:北京市1980-2009年的生态足迹较大,且始终存在生态赤字。运用PLS模型从社会经济方面分析发现:北京市的经济增长、产业结构、居民消费结构、常住人口等因素都对生态足迹有着显著影响。     

北京市公共交通生态足迹考察

公共交通日益成为城市出行的主流和未来交通发展的方向,政府亦出台政策鼓励其优先发展。基于公共交通快速发展的背景,以北京市的两种公共交通方式为研究对象,利用基于能值分析改进的生态足迹模型,计算出2005-2010年北京市公共交通的生态足迹。测算结果表明,2005-2010年北京市公共交通的生态足迹呈不断增长的趋势,其年均增长率约为12.3%,其中轨道交通增长率持平于客运增长率,地面公交增长率高于客运增长率。北京市公共交通的生态足迹主要伴随着能源消耗的增多而增大,但其占北京市总生态足迹的比例较低,表明北京市公共交通符合可持续发展的要求,应该进一步推动公共交通,特别是轨道交通的发展。     

中国能源生态足迹的影响因素分析

我国能源足迹总量在1978-2007年之间增加了4.49倍,一直呈上升趋势,其中煤炭和原油为代表的化石能源的大量消耗使能源生态足迹显著增加;本文选取人口、城市化水平、人均GDP、能源强度作为能源足迹影响因子,通过与世界不同收入水平的国家能源足迹的影响进行分析,表明不同发展阶段的国家影响因素解释作用各不相同,针对我国能源强度的解释作用最大.     

全球价值链视角下中国增加值出口及其影响因素

基于世界投入产出数据库,采用MRIO模型测算1995~2009年中国增加值出口的变动趋势,并采用结构分解方法分析了9种因素对中国增加值出口变化的影响。结果显示,1995~2009年外需引致的中国增加值出口由1425亿美元增加到10396亿美元,增幅高达629.36%,增加值出口对于国内增加值创造的重要性在不断提高;外国最终需求的来源地结构变动、中国前向国际产业关联变动和外国最终需求规模变动是影响中国增加值出口变化的3个最主要因素,分别使中国增加值出口增长278.81%、262.02%和122.28%;中国国内生产部门增加值系数变动和外国最终需求的产品结构变动不利于中国增加值出口增长或影响很小。     

基于能源投入产出表分析四川天然气能耗强度

四川是我国天然气消费最成熟的地区。我们根据2002年、2005年、20007年四川省各产业产值及其消费各种能源的相关数据,编制实物价值型能源投入产出表,建立能源投入产出模型,分析四川天然气的直接能耗和完全能耗;在此基础上,采用因素分解法,将天然气能耗变动因素分解为能源强度变化、产品技术变化和最终需求变化等三方面,从而找出影响四川天然气能耗强度变动的原因,准确揭示四川天然气能耗强度变化与四川各产业发展的关联。     

城市化、食物消费转型及其生态环境影响

利用1981~2015年城乡人口分布与居民食物消费的时间序列数据,定量分析了中国城市化的发展进程、城乡居民食物消费的转型趋势及其生态环境影响,并通过非参数方法估计了城市化与中国食物消费结构转型及其生态环境影响的非线性关系。结果表明:过去三十多年间随着中国城市化水平不断提高,城乡居民的畜禽肉蛋类等食物消费持续增加;城市化与食物消费结构转型增加了居民饮食的碳足迹、水足迹、氮足迹与生态足迹,带来了巨大的生态环境压力和严重的污染问题;随着未来我国城市化步伐的进一步推进与食物消费转型升级,人口、资源与环境压力将日益突出。最后,提出了通过减少食物浪费、提高粮食进口量,缓解我国农业资源与生态环境压力的政策建议。     

北京市房地产产业关联分析

运用2007年北京市42个部门的投入产出表,对房地产业进行了产业关联分析,认为北京市房地产业具有产业关联效应下降、服务业特点明显、技术化提高等发展特征。     

Mitigating shortage and distribution costs in damaged water networks

Recent events have sparked renewed interest in disaster mitigation for public infrastructures. Presidential Decision Directive 63 identifies water distribution as being among the most vital and vulnerable of our large-scale infrastructures. Water distribution networks are vulnerable to threats such as chemical and biological contamination, cyber attacks on computer-based management systems, and physical destruction from acts of nature and intentional attack. This research develops methods for configuring the undamaged portion of the water network to mitigate the consequences of physical destruction. The approach is to find a hydraulically feasible residual network that can be pressurized to meet the demand of a subset of demand sectors. Demand sectors not pressurized then receive water through truck distribution from pressurized sectors. The objective is to minimize weighted water shortage and water truck distribution costs by identifying sectors to pressurize along with an assignment of unpressurized sectors to pressurized sectors for water delivery by truck. The paper develops an optimization model, describes a solution method, and presents computational results for three example networks.     

A Structural Decomposition of Energy Consumption Based on a Hybrid Rectangular Input-Output Framework: Japan's Case

This paper proposes an I-O SDA model, based on a commodity technology assumption, to identify the sources of changes in the energy demand structure, the non-energy input structure, the non-energy product-mix and the non-energy final demand of embodied energy requirements. The model contains two features. First, the hybrid rectangular input-output framework expressed in both monetary and physical terms is introduced to relax the effects of different energy prices among industrial sectors on the input structure in physical terms. Second, the demand structure of the input-output system is decomposed into the structure of energy sectors and other sectors by applying the hierarchy system with feedback loops of non-energy sectors. We identify the sources of the changes in Japan's energy use structure between 1985 and 1990. The major findings are that the total energy requirement has increased, mainly because of the changes in the non-energy final demand, while the product-mix changes have opposite effects, that is, energy savings.     

Business Services as a Production Factor

Based on the assumption that business services are influential production factors, an empirical analysis of the relation between business service inputs and production output in user sectors is carried out. Danish data from 52 manufacturing and service sectors covering the period 1970-95 are applied in the analysis. A sectoral dimension is introduced by dividing the 52 sectors into eight sectoral groupings and then allowing the slopes of the different variables included in the model to vary between the eight groups. The empirical analysis offers some support to the assumption that business services can have an effect comparable to traditional production factors, although this only applies to service sectors, and, partly, to low-knowledge manufacturing.     

The Impact of Taiwan's WTO Entry on Its Domestic Agriculture Sector

This study used a multi-sector CGE model, derived from ORANI and implemented by the GEMPACK software, to evaluate the impact of 44.67%, 35.9% and 40.8% tariff reductions on agriculture, livestock, and fishery, respectively, two years after Taiwan's accession to the WTO in 2002. Results show that the value of domestic agricultural, livestock and fishery production would be reduced by NT$45.2, 24.1 and 3.9 billion, respectively, under the standard neo-classical model. Since it is difficult for industrial sectors to hire the unskilled elderly workers who lost their jobs in the agricultural, livestock, and fishery production sectors, a partial equilibrium model, specified in this study by restricting transferability of primary input from agriculture, livestock, fishery, and processing sectors to the secondary industrial sectors, will be more realistic for Taiwan's social-economic structure after entering WTO. The results from the structuralist model show that the value of domestic agricultural, livestock, and fishery production will ber-educed by NT$47.4, 26.4 and 4.4 billion, respectively, suggesting that those sectors in Taiwan would suffer more severely if their primary input (i.e. labor) lacked mobility.     

A model of the economy based on an interpolated growth matrix

This paper deals with direct and indirect growth rates of sectors and with the interpolated growth matrix of the economy. Its purpose is to determine the model based on the interpolated growth matrix which enables a new approach in the planning of the growth of the economy. The formulation of such a model is useful for the expression of specific structural problems as well as for the extrapolation of system elements into the future. It is characterized by the use of lower and upper projections of growth and mutual relations of sector growths as a basis for programming future sector changes. In contrast to methods in which the direct growth rates of sectors are given, in this case such trends are determined as endogenous variables. At the same time, we use a large amount of data by means of the indirect growth rates in order to describe more completely the dependences among the sectors.     

Changing Productive Relations,Linkage Effects,and Industrialization

This paper develops a multi-sector endogenous innovation model that is able to take changing productive relations among sectors into account. It is shown that while productivity and demand shocks do not induce any changes in productive relations and linkage effects, shocks in the productivity of R&D increase both backward and forward linkages. Key sectors are characterized as having high forward and backward linkages, which are consistent with the definition of key sectors in the existing empirical studies. However, vertical specialization generates not only sectors with high backward and low forward linkages, but also sectors with low backward and high forward linkages. As a consequence of this vertical specialization, the latter sectors become key sectors, in the sense that they have significant effects on business fluctuations. This implies that general-purpose technology sectors emerge, and sector-specific policies for these sectors play a critical role in economic development and growth.     

BI-REGIONAL SAM LINKAGES: A MODIFIED BACKWARD AND FORWARD DISPERSION APPROACH

The aim of the paper is to apply a new backward and forward dispersion approach, starting from the original Rasmussen definition, which can give further insight into the interactions between industries and institutional sectors in a multiregional framework. The method is based on identification of the Macro Multipliers and the related impact components of a model based on a bi-regional SAM, which allows for the representation of the bi-regional multisectoral and multi-industry model in a two-dimensional space defined by the two dominating impact components. From such representation, we derive a set of indices of intraregional and interregional backward and forward dispersion that identifies key groups of industries and institutional sectors. The strength of these groups is further evaluated in terms of correlation of the impact components within the groups and cross-correlation between industry and institutional sectors groups. Comparative analysis among regional results gives a full picture of regional income policies.     

Heterogeneous response of disaggregate inflation to monetary policy regime change: The role of price stickiness

This paper explores how a monetary regime change affects headline inflation via differential effects on various sectors in the economy. Using disaggregated CPI data for Canada, we find that the response to the adoption of inflation targeting (IT) was quite heterogeneous across sectors. While sticky-price sectors experienced a notable change in inflation dynamics following IT adoption, little structural change was observed in flexible price sectors. Our analysis based on a common factor model suggests that the structural changes in the sticky price sectors are driven by a decline in their responses to common aggregate shocks, including a monetary shock.     

Enhancing the green efficiency of fundamental sectors in China’s industrial system: A spatial-temporal analysis

Due to sectoral interactions in the economy, the overall green efficiency (GE) of China’s industrial system relies heavily on fundamental sectors that contribute substantial energy to the supply chain production of other sectors but shows low sectoral GE. For the three fundamental sectors in China’s industrial systems, namely the smelting and pressing of nonferrous metals (SPNFM), the processing of petroleum, coking, and nuclear fuel (PPCNF); and the manufacturing of nonmetallic mineral products (MNMMP), we employed a three-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) model to measure GE in the fundamental sectors in 30 provinces from 2010 to 2015. We then adopted a stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) model to evaluate the influence of technological innovation (TI), industrial agglomeration (IA), environmental regulation (ER), and intraindustry competition (IC). The results showed that GE in the three fundamental sectors varied spatially. Specifically, TI promoted GE in MNMMP, but the effect was not obvious in the SPNFM and PPCNF sectors. Moreover, ER had positive impacts on GE in the fundamental sectors. The effects of IA and IC on GE in the fundamental sectors varied in direction and strength. After eliminating the impacts of environmental effects and statistical noise, the real GE in the three fundamental sectors varied significantly compared to the comprehensive GE. Policy opportunities for enhancing GE in the fundamental sectors mainly lie in region-specific policy and regulations that avoid a “one-size-fits-all” governance approach.     

A multi‐level panel STAR model for US manufacturing sectors

We introduce a multi‐level smooth transition model for a panel of time series, which can be used to examine the presence of common nonlinear business cycle features across many variables. The model is positioned in between a fully pooled model, which imposes such common features, and a fully heterogeneous model, which allows for unrestricted nonlinearity. We introduce a second‐stage model linking the parameters that determine the timing of the switches between business cycle regimes to observable explanatory variables, thereby allowing for lead–lag relationships across panel members. We discuss representation, estimation by concentrated simulated maximum likelihood and inference. We illustrate our model using quarterly industrial production in 19 US manufacturing sectors, and document that there are subtle differences across sectors in leads and lags for switches between business cycle recessions and expansions. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.