Investment risk allocation and the venture capital exit market: Evidence from early stage investing

This study provides evidence on how venture capitalists’ (VCs’) allocations of capital to riskier investments, as measured by the proportion of early versus late-stage investment in an industry, are linked to exit market conditions. Prior research has primarily focused on how VCs adjust aggregate investment to public equity market conditions. We develop a more inclusive measure of exit market conditions that accounts for recent secular changes that have affected the industry return structure, specifically, the sharp rise in the number of failures and M&A relative to IPO exits. We show that the dollars gained relative to dollars lost in recent exits and failures are significantly positively related to VCs’ allocations to early-stage companies over the period 1990–2008. The changes in allocations are large enough to have an effect on the availability of funding for early stage companies. In sum, our evidence shows that exit market conditions have a significant and economically meaningful influence on VCs’ allocations to riskier investments.     

Economic freedom and cross-border venture capital performance

We investigate the determinants of cross-border venture capital (VC) performance using a large sample of 10,205 cross-border VC investments by 1906 foreign VC firms (VCs) in 6535 domestic portfolio companies. We focus on the impact of a domestic country's economic freedom on the performance of both VC investments and portfolio companies using a probit model and the Cox hazard model. After controlling for other related factors of domestic countries, portfolio companies, VCs and the global VC market, as well as year and industry fixed effects, we find that a domestic country's economic freedom is crucial to cross-border VC performance. In particular, in a more economically free country, as measured by the raw values of, quartiles of or the ranking in the index of economic freedom (IEF), a foreign VC-backed portfolio company is more likely to pull off a successful exit through an IPO (initial public offering) or an M&A (merger and acquisition), and a foreign VC firm is likely to spend a shorter investment duration in the portfolio company. We also identify interesting evidence on the impact of many other level factors of domestic countries, portfolio companies, VCs and the global VC market on cross-border VC performance.     

Cross-border venture capital performance: Evidence from China

This paper investigates the determinants of cross-border venture capital (VC) performance in the Chinese VC market. We focus on the impact of foreign VC firms' (VCs') human capital and domestic entrepreneurs' experience on the performance of both VC investments and portfolio companies using logit and Cox hazard models. After controlling for portfolio company quality, domestic VC industry development, domestic exit conditions and a number of other factors, little correlation was evident between VC performance and foreign VCs' human capital, such as experience, networks and reputation. In contrast, the domestic entrepreneurs' experience is crucial to VC performance. In particular, if an entrepreneur has more general experience in terms of the number of companies previously worked for or more special experience in terms of the number of companies previously served as a CEO or top manager, a portfolio company is more likely to pull off a successful exit through IPO or M&A, and the VCs are also likely to shorten their investment duration in the portfolio company.     

Foreign VCs and venture success: Evidence from China

This paper analyzes the role of foreign VCs in driving venture success in emerging markets. We analyze a comprehensive data set of 4753 portfolio companies from China. We test whether the presence of a foreign VC increases the likelihood that a portfolio company is successfully exited. We find that the presence of a foreign VC does not per se significantly increase the likelihood of a successful exit. However, the likelihood of a successful exit increases if the foreign VC collaborates with a joint venture (JV) partner. Further, the impact of foreign VC backing depends on the nature of the VC, with foreign VCs tending to perform better when investing in late-stage companies and when they are diversified across industries. If a foreign VC successfully exits an investment, then, compared with a domestic-VC, it prefers to exit via a M&A or secondary-buyout than via an IPO, reflecting the significant lock-up periods associated with VC-backed IPOs in China, the difficulty of achieving a foreign listing, and the difficulty listing a start-up on Chinese markets.     

Whom You Know Matters: Venture Capital Networks and Investment Performance

Many financial markets are characterized by strong relationships and networks, rather than arm's‐length, spot market transactions. We examine the performance consequences of this organizational structure in the context of relationships established when VCs syndicate portfolio company investments. We find that better‐networked VC firms experience significantly better fund performance, as measured by the proportion of investments that are successfully exited through an IPO or a sale to another company. Similarly, the portfolio companies of better‐networked VCs are significantly more likely to survive to subsequent financing and eventual exit. We also provide initial evidence on the evolution of VC networks.     

IPO or SBO?: The Increasing Importance of Operational Performance for Private Equity Exits Following the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–08

The authors report the findings of their recent study of the role of portfolio company operating performance in determining the choice of exit options by private equity firms between initial public offerings (IPOs) and secondary buyouts (SBOs), and how that role may have changed since the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2008. Virtually all studies of PE exits in all countries have found that portfolio companies that exit through IPOs tend to be larger and have higher operating returns than companies that exit through SBOs or sales to other companies. After examining the exits of PE portfolio companies based in Denmark and Sweden during the period 2003–2013, the authors report that, although general market conditions continue to be a major factor, operating performance and size have become even more important requirements for IPO exits since the crisis. And thus PE firms that fail to make operating improvements in their portfolio companies are likely to find their exit options limited.     

Venture capitalists and portfolio companies’ real activities manipulation

I study the relation between venture capitalists’ (VCs) presence and real activities manipulation (RM). I find that compared to non-venture-backed companies, venture-backed companies show significantly less RM in the first post-IPO fiscal year. The results are robust after controlling for the VC selection endogeneity. This is consistent with the argument that VCs do not inflate earnings when they exit the IPO firm but instead exercise a monitoring role to reduce the RM by other insiders. By the end of the second post-IPO fiscal year when VCs exit the portfolio companies, their impact on portfolio companies’ RM decreases dramatically. This suggests that the impact of VCs on portfolio companies is mainly through direct monitoring rather than through the establishment of a governance structure. A partitioned sample analysis indicates that VCs lapse their control and do not restrain RM during the Internet Bubble. VCs also tighten their control and reduce significantly RM in technology companies where managers engage in more aggressive RM, but they have no influence on RM in non-tech companies. Furthermore, using alternative VCs’ reputation proxies, I find that portfolio companies’ RM is negatively associated with VCs’ reputation.     

Politician as venture capitalist: Politically-connected VCs and IPO activity in China

This study examines the impact of venture capitalists' (VC) political connections on their portfolio companies. Specifically, we use a manually-collected dataset of VCs' political connection to investigate the potential benefits and costs that politically-connected VCs bring to their portfolio companies. On the benefit side, we find that companies backed by politically-connected VCs are more likely to obtain IPO approval from the Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC, China's counterpart to the SEC in the US). On the other hand, these VCs are more likely to acquire equity in the company at a significant discount and to invest shortly before the IPO application. In addition, we find that politically-connected VC-backed companies do not experience greater improvements in financial performance, corporate governance, or innovation output subsequent to receiving venture financing. Our results further show that companies backed by VCs with political connections are less mature and experience more underpricing at their IPO than non-politically-connected VC-backed companies. Finally, we find that, compared to non-politically-connected VCs, politically-connected VCs exit earlier after a company's IPO and that their portfolio companies experience greater post-IPO underperformance and performance volatility.     

What determines the exit decision for leveraged buyouts?

How and when to exit portfolio company investments are critical choices facing private equity funds. In this paper we analyze 1022 European private equity exits, using information on fund and portfolio company characteristics, and on conditions in capital markets. For over 43% of the exits, private equity funds sold to each other and we analyze why such secondary buyouts have gained in popularity relative to IPOs and sales to corporate acquirers. We find that the exit route depends on various portfolio company characteristics, and that conditions in the debt and equity markets have a strong influence on exit choice. The existing literature has tended to portray the IPO is the “preferred” exit route. However, our analysis suggests this is mistaken: private equity funds take advantage of ‘windows of opportunity’, and the exit route that maximizes value varies with market conditions.     

Venture capital reputation and investment performance

I propose a new measure of venture capital (VC) firm reputation and analyze its performance implications on private companies. Controlling for portfolio company quality and other VC-specific factors including experience, connectedness, syndication, industry competition, exit conditions, and investment environment, I find companies backed by more reputable VCs by initial public offering (IPO) capitalization share (based on cumulative market capitalization of IPOs backed by the VC), are more likely to exit successfully, access public markets faster, and have higher asset productivity at IPOs. Further tests suggest VCs’ IPO Capitalization share effectively captures both VC screening and monitoring expertise. My findings have financial implications for limited partners and entrepreneurs regarding their VC-sorting activities.     

Coaches or Speculators? The Role and Impact of Venture Capital on Executive Compensation in Chinese Listed Companies

In this paper, we utilize a panel dataset that covers 1245 listed companies which accomplished their IPO during 2006 to 2014 in China to investigate the impact of venture capital (VC) firms on executive compensation, equity incentive and pay-performance-sensitivity. We make several key findings: First, we find the presence of VCs can significantly raise the executive compensation. Second, high reputation VCs and private VCs increases the likelihood of granting executive equity incentives, whereas foreign VCs are significantly negatively related with executive equity incentive. Third, the pay-performance sensitivity of government VCs and foreign VCs is significant on stock return (RET) whereas insignificant on accounting performance (ROA). Moreover, the increasing VCs share in portfolio companies enhance the pay performance sensitivity on RET. Our results show that before VCs final exiting their post-IPO portfolio companies in China, VCs’ impact on executive compensation are more consistent with grandstanding theories and intending to provide higher cash compensation to encourage executives to raise the companies’ stock price, which is indicating VCs’ changing role from a coach into a speculator after the portfolio companies’ IPO.     

Predicting success in entrepreneurial finance research

We study the relationship between buyout and venture capital (VC) funds’ returns, and more typically available proxies—exits via M&A or IPO. We further explore the effects of filters on the selection of M&As and IPOs (to emphasize successes), on the relationship. We show that some of these filters can reduce the count of exits by as much as 80% without significantly improving the correlation between exits and fund returns. We also show that for venture capital funds, counting acquisitions that are at least twice the amount of funding raised results in the best correlation between exits via an acquisition and fund returns. Finally, when the sample comprises young startups – that are perhaps not yet ready for any form of exit – follow-on funding, employment, website ranking, and patent activity can be used as proxies for exits in place of IPOs or acquisitions.     

DOES VENTURE CAPITAL REQUIRE AN ACTIVE STOCK MARKET?

The United States has both an active venture capital industry and well-developed stock markets. Japan and Germany have neither. The authors argue that this is no accident— that venture capital flourishes especially, and perhaps only , when venture capitalists can exit from successful portfolio companies through initial public offerings (IPOs), which in turn require an active stock market.
Understanding the link between the stock market and the venture capital market requires understanding the contractual arrangements between entrepreneurs and venture capital providers, particularly (1) the importance of exit by venture capitalists and (2) the implicit contract over control between venture capitalists and entrepreneurs created by the possibility of exit through an IPO. This possibility gives entrepreneurs a valuable option that, in the event they are successful, allows them to reacquire control of their enterprises from venture capitalists.     

How Smart Is Smart Money? A Two‐Sided Matching Model of Venture Capital

I find that companies funded by more experienced VCs are more likely to go public. This follows both from the direct influence of more experienced VCs and from sorting in the market, which leads experienced VCs to invest in better companies. Sorting creates an endogeneity problem, but a structural model based on a two‐sided matching model is able to exploit the characteristics of the other agents in the market to separately identify and estimate influence and sorting. Both effects are found to be significant, with sorting almost twice as important as influence for the difference in IPO rates.     

The Impact of Venture Capital Monitoring

We show that venture capitalists' (VCs) on‐site involvement with their portfolio companies leads to an increase in both innovation and the likelihood of a successful exit. We rule out selection effects by exploiting an exogenous source of variation in VC involvement: the introduction of new airline routes that reduce VCs' travel times to their existing portfolio companies. We confirm the importance of this channel by conducting a large‐scale survey of VCs, of whom almost 90% indicate that direct flights increase their interaction with their portfolio companies and management, and help them better understand companies' activities.     

Technology timing of IPOs and venture capital incubation

This paper investigates whether industry technological changes affect the timing of venture capital-backed IPOs. Venture capitalists (VCs) shorten incubation periods and take portfolio companies public when the industry exhibits high levels of technological change. This technology timing of IPOs reflects the VCs' efforts to raise future capital. In particular, during periods of greater technological change, VCs that conduct IPOs after shorter incubation periods obtain more subsequent funding. However, portfolio companies with shorter incubation periods earn fewer patents, are less likely to survive, and experience worse stock returns after their IPOs. These findings provide new insights into VCs' strategic exit decisions due to changes in the technological environment, as well as how their decisions affect the post-exit performance of their portfolio companies.     

The Case for Secondary Buyouts as Exit Channel

Do private equity firms have a clear pecking order when deciding on exit channels for their portfolio companies? Are secondary buyouts—that is, sales to other PE firms—always an exit of last resort? And are there company‐ or market‐related factors that have a clear and predictable influence on decisions to pursue secondary buyouts? Using a proprietary dataset of over 1,100 leveraged buyouts that exited in North America or Europe between 1995 and 2008, the authors attempt to answer these questions by analyzing the returns associated with public, private, and secondary (or “financial”) exits. Based on their analysis of the realized returns, there is no clear pecking order of exit types. Secondary buyouts deliver rates of return that are the equal of those achieved through public exits. In addition, the authors assess the relationship between the likelihood of choosing a financial exit and certain company‐related as well as market‐related factors. Portfolio companies with greater debt capacity are more likely to be sold in secondary buyouts. Furthermore, increases in both the liquidity of debt markets and the amount of undrawn capital commitments to the private equity industry increase the probability of exit through secondary buyouts.     

Does cross-border syndication affect venture capital risk and return?

Venture capital (VC) cross-border syndication has increased significantly in recent years. This study examines the risk and returns of investments of US–European cross-border syndicates in US portfolio companies. We use a large sample of investments across four financing stages, and highlight several noteworthy differences between cross-border syndicates and previous US-only evidence. By comparison, US–European syndicates are larger than US-only syndicates, involve younger VCs, and focus more on later financing stages. Controlling for sample selection bias caused by the endogenous choices of exit route and exit timing, we examine the risk and returns of investments backed by cross-border syndicates. Consistent with evidence from US-only syndicates, alpha and beta decrease monotonically from the earliest (start-up) stage to the later stages of financing.     

Connected VCs and strategic alliances: Evidence from biotech companies

We study a new channel through which portfolio companies benefit from ties among venture capitalists (VCs). By tracing individual VCs' investment and syndication histories, we show that VCs' ties improve companies' access to strategic alliance partners. While existing studies demonstrate that alliances are more frequent among companies sharing the same VC, we provide evidence that alliances are also more frequent among companies indirectly connected through VC syndication networks. In addition, our results suggest that VCs' ties mitigate asymmetric information problems that arise when alliances are formed. Finally, strategic alliances between companies from connected VCs' portfolios tend to perform well. We demonstrate that this type of alliance is associated with higher IPO chances. We also address alternative explanations and related endogeneity concerns.     

IPOs,trade sales and liquidations: Modelling venture capital exits using survival analysis

This paper examines the dynamics of exit options for US venture capital funds. Using a sample of more than 20,000 investment rounds, we analyze the time to ‘IPO’, ‘trade sale’ and ‘liquidation’ for 6000 VC-backed firms. We model these exit times using competing risks models, which allow for a joint analysis of exit type and exit timing. The hazard rate for IPOs are clearly non-monotonic with respect to time. As time flows, VC-backed firms first exhibit an increased likelihood of exiting to an IPO. However, after having reached a plateau, non-exited investments have fewer possibilities of IPO exits as time increases. This sharply contrasts with trade sale exits, where the hazard rate is less time-varying. We further provide evidence on the impact of economic factors such as syndicate size and composition, geographical location and VC value adding, on exit outcomes.