Credit policy,real exchange rate volatility and moral hazard

We extend the well-developed theoretical literature on unconventional credit policy from a closed economy to a small open economy. Consistent with the literature, we find that credit policy has positive effects on output and consumption by raising investment demand. In terms of expanding output, it is more effective to extend government credit to banks than to the goods-producing sector because for each unit of credit supplied to banks, banks - through leverage - can supply greater than one unit of intermediation to firms. We find the welfare implications are ambiguous and depend on the type of policy chosen. A policy of providing funds to goods-producing firms tends to be welfare-improving because it dampens the responses of all variables after a negative shock, including the real exchange rate. However, providing government assistance to the banking sector may be a costly policy because it encourages greater risk-taking on part of banks, leading to higher bank leverage. All else equal, this increases the volatility of the economy, raising the variances of consumption and of the real exchange rate, which is welfare-deteriorating. We interpret this as indicative of the problem of moral hazard associated with a policy of providing support to failing banks.     

No lending relationships and liquidity management of small businesses during a financial shock

We investigate the determinants of the end of lending relationships with banks using small business data. We also investigate how small businesses without lending relationships financed credit demand during the global financial shock. First, we find that firms with lower growth, low working capital, and high internal cash were more likely to end lending relationships with banks. Supply-side effects on the determinants of the end of relationships are insignificant. Second, when firms experienced credit demand during the financial shock, those with lending relationships increased bank borrowings while those without lending relationships reduced internal cash. Third, firm performance (in terms of profitability) was neither lower nor higher for firms that did not have lending relationships with banks during the shock period.     

Transmission of liquidity shock to bank credit: Evidence from the deposit insurance reform in Japan

Finding the causal effects of liquidity shocks on credit supply is complicated by the endogenous relation between loan demand and liquidity position of banks. This paper attempts to overcome this problem by exploiting, as a natural experiment, the exogenous deposit outflow prompted by the removal of a blanket deposit guarantee on time deposits in Japan. We find that during the period of transition from a blanket guarantee to a partial guarantee, weak banks suffered from a large outflow of partially insured time deposits. More importantly, we find that those weak banks were not able to raise a sufficient amount of other types of deposits to make up for the loss of time deposits, which, consequently, forced them to cut back on loan supply. These results are consistent with the theory that the imperfect substitutability of insured deposits and uninsured deposits affects the tightness of banks’ financing constraints and ultimately the supply of bank loans.     

创新国有商业银行信贷管理

国有商业银行近年来更加突出的信贷集中隐藏着危险,实证研究表明,国有商业银行大额信贷风险高,长期效益低,并且容易导致银行内外勾结诈骗贷款。小额信贷不仅为银行带来丰厚的利润,而且促进中小企业发展和社会和谐。国有商业银行的信贷管理,应变大额集中投放为小额分散投放,变集体审批无人负责为个人审批个人负责,并且设置适当的个人审批贷款的最大累计余额和个人借款的最大累计余额。     

What Factors Determine Whether Small and Medium Enterprises Obtain Credit from the Formal Credit Market? The Case of Vietnam

Using a survey of Vietnamese small and medium enterprises (SMEs) conducted during 2005–2013, this paper examines the process of applying for a formal loan and the level of satisfaction (credit needs) obtained by SMEs. The empirical results show that banking relationships and the business environment are important factors when applying for and obtaining formal credit. However, positive measures of firms' financial performance, such as a high return on assets score and sales growth, did not have a significant influence on whether firms obtained credit. Formal financial institutions in Vietnam were found to depend too much on collateral assets in assessing whether to supply credit to an SME.     

Loan interest rate pass-through and changes after the financial crisis: Japan’s evidence

We estimate interest rate pass-through in the loan market using an individual bank-based panel dataset from Japan. Previous studies using data from European countries have presented a number of common findings, including that banks with a high proportion of relationship lending tend to set lower pass-through. In this respect, we have obtained similar results using a dataset for Japan going back to the early 2000s. We further examine the influence of borrowing firms’ balance sheet characteristics on loan interest rate pass-through, and find that these additional factors are also important determinants for pass-through dispersion. However, after the recent global financial crisis, even banks with a high proportion of relationship lending have largely lowered loan interest rates by raising pass-through, and pass-through has not necessarily been determined in accordance with borrowing firms’ balance sheet characteristics. These results differ from those of recent studies on European countries. Possible background factors explaining this change are that (i) pressure to lower loan interest rates has risen due to extensive monetary easing and greater lending competition among banks, while Japan’s banking system as a whole has maintained its resilience in the post-crisis period; (ii) demand for bank loans has increased substantially due to disruptions in the market for alternative funding sources, such as commercial paper and corporate bonds; and (iii) public measures to increase bank loans have been broadly introduced in Japan.     

Balance sheet deterioration and credit allocations: Japanese evidence from the short-term economic survey of enterprises

This study is an empirical attempt to investigate the effects of balance sheet deterioration of Japanese firms and banks in the 1990s on credit allocation using the short-term economic survey of enterprises. This survey contains a unique item: proportion of firms perceiving the lending attitude as severe. After developing a theoretical model to link this item with the balance sheet conditions of borrowers and lenders, we estimate the relationship derived from the model. We find that credit was reduced when the balance sheet of firms and banks deteriorated. The effects are notably large for non-manufacturing industries.     

Trust and contracting with foreign banks: Evidence from China

We empirically investigate whether firms doing business in regions characterized as having high social trust receive preferential treatment on loan contractual terms by foreign banks. Tracing cross-border syndicated lending activities in China, we document that firms located in provinces with higher social trust scores obtain significantly low costs of bank loans and experience less stringent collateral requirement. To address the potential endogeneity issues, we adopt an instrumental variable approach and a two-sided matching model, and report consistent results. We also estimate a system of three equations through three-stage-least square estimator to accommodate the joint determination of price and non-price terms in loan contracts. In addition, we find that the effect of social trust on cost of bank loans is more prominent for firms located in provinces with relatively less developed formal institutions.     

商业信用:基于企业融资动机的实证研究

商业信用是企业从外部市场进行短期融资的重要组成部分。本文采用我国上市公司2000年至2004年的数据实证研究了商业信用作为企业外部融资方式的决定因素。实证结果发现企业获得的商业信用与企业规模、财务杠杆、销售增长率以及国有股比例呈显著正相关关系．而与短期银行借款比例以厦毛利润率呈显著负相关关系。这些发现表明，在我国目前所处的融资环境下。商业信用已经成为企业的重要融资手段。与银行信贷相比。商业信用具有一定的融资比较优势，作为提供商业信用的企业，对客户的经营状况等信息的了解更有效。     

Credit crunch and its spatial differences in Japan's lost decade: What can we learn from it?

In this paper, we aim to elucidate whether effects related to supply or demand contributed to the Japanese “credit crunch” in the 1990s. Using prefectural panel data, we estimate loan supply and demand functions and calculate their shifts. Our analysis reveals that demand-side effects contributed to the Japanese credit crunch to an equal or greater degree than supply-side effects. Further, we show that the credit crunch was not uniform across Japan, but was more severe in urban relative to rural prefectures. These findings suggest that traditional countermeasures in the banking sector that similarly affect all prefectures may not induce economic recovery. Given this, we assert that region-specific policies may be more appropriate.     

我国的信贷资源配置是有效的吗——基于我国上市公司投资效率视角的经验证据

作为我国企业最主要的资金来源,信贷资金在我国的国民经济中扮演着极其重要的角色,因此信贷资源配置质量的高低无疑将对我国的经济发展产生重要影响。本文以我国上市公司为研究对象,从企业投资效率的角度研究了我国的信贷资源配置效率问题。本文发现,处于过度投资状态的企业获得了更多的长期贷款;而且过度投资程度越大,它们获得的长期贷款越多。进一步的研究结果表明,企业的过度投资或投资不足的程度越大,企业价值越低。上述结果表明,我国的信贷市场是低效的,更多的信贷资源流向了处于过度投资状态的企业,而这类企业的价值较低,说明我国银行的资源配置功能较差。本文的研究丰富了信贷配给研究领域的文献,同时也为我国银行的信贷决策和我国的银行改革提供了参考依据。     

信托业在金融促进经济发展中的作用探析

信托业作为"四大金融支柱"之一,应当在金融促进经济发展中发挥重要作用。在当前的经济金融形势以及政策环境下,信托公司可以为银行提供通道服务,放大信贷规模,满足企业融资需求;与地方政府合作,满足基础设施建设的融资需求;开发房地产信托产品,促进房地产业发展;开展股票质押融资信托业务,满足"大小非"融资需求;开展私人股权投资信托业务,满足企业股权融资需求。     

流动性过剩:基于贷款供求非均衡模型的分析

本文利用对数似然方法估计商业银行贷款供求因素的非均衡模型,试图检验在商业银行贷款能力不下降的情况下,流动性过剩的信贷决定因素,并由此确认我国流动性过剩是贷款需求约束还是供给约束.实证分析结果表明,宏观经济调控中起关键作用的手段仍然是政府对信贷的控制,通过控制银行信贷总量而引起的总供求状况的改变会导致商业银行流动性的变化,因此,银行信贷供给约束造成我国经济中信贷收缩从而发生流动性过剩.     

论我国商业银行小微企业信贷风险控制

我国银行对小微企业的信贷风险控制普遍存在着信贷风险评估建设滞后、贷款类型单一、贷款审查制度欠规范、缺乏针对小微贷款风险控制机制等问题,主要是由于信息不对称、微型贷款的成本较高、银行缺乏信贷风险控制思想、小微企业自身的内部控制不健全等原因所造成的。针对小微企业不同的信贷风险类型,运用各种风险防范手段,严格控制小微企业信贷业务流程的创新优化思路,并从经营管理思路、贷款营销、贷前调查、贷款审查、贷款审批、贷后管理方面提出了科学可行的对策。本文对小微企业信贷风险控制进行了系统深入的研究,力求对我国商业银行未来小微贷款的发展起到一定的指导作用,对其他银行发展小微企业贷款也具有借鉴意义。     

Japanese industrial finance at the close of the 19th century: Trade credit and financial intermediation

In a series of recent studies, several economic historians (most prominently Richard Sylla) argue that successful economies experience “financial revolutions” before undergoing rapid growth. In the U.S., they suggest Hamilton masterminded the financial revolution by putting the public finance in order and facilitating private banks. Might Matsukata, they continue, have done the same in Japan? Japan did indeed experience a financial revolution in the late 19th century. Matsukata, however, did not mastermind the revolution in advance of private-sector demand. Instead, private investors created much of the financial infrastructure in response to demand from industrial firms. What is more, most firms (at least in the pivotal silk industry) raised the funds they needed through trade credit rather than securities markets or banks.     

Accounting Choices and Risk Management: SFAS No. 115 and U.S. Bank Holding Companies*

This paper provides evidence that regulatory contracts affect firms' accounting choices and risk‐management decisions. Specifically, we investigate whether an exogenous shock to regulatory risk induced by Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 115, “Accounting for Certain Investments in Debt and Equity Securities” (SFAS 1993), encouraged U.S. banks to deviate from portfolio and risk benchmarks when they adopted the standard. Because we cannot observe relevant benchmarks, we model portfolio and risk decisions as functions of macroeconomic and firm‐specific factors using data from a period when regulatory capital was immune to SFAS No. 115 accounting. We examine a sample of 230 publicly traded banks and find that (1) irrespective of adoption timing, banks classified too few securities available for sale (AFS) relative to estimated benchmarks; (2) weaker banks that adopted the standard early classified far more securities as AFS relative to benchmarks; (3) banks altered the size of their securities portfolios along with the levels of interest‐rate risk and credit risk as regulatory capital decreased; and (4) the level of interest‐rate risk on banks' loan portfolios increased at the time of SFAS No. 115 adoption. We also explore the 1995 Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) amnesty when firms could “readopt” SFAS No. 115. We find that banks used the 1995 FASB amnesty to undo strategic initial SFAS No. 115 adoption decisions. Taken together, our findings suggest that SFAS No. 115 caused some of the accounting and economic consequences predicted by bankers, analysts, and academics.     

The value of banking relationships during a financial crisis: Evidence from failures of Japanese banks

Previous literature suggests that banking relationships can enhance the value of client firms in the presence of asymmetric information problems. Hence, severance of banking ties due to a bank failure can have adverse consequences for the clients of the failed bank. In this paper, we provide evidence on the value of banking relationships by examining the impact of three large bank failures in Japan on their clients and the clients of surviving banks. We find that, as in previous studies, the market value of customers of the failed banks is adversely affected on the date of the failure announcements. In addition, the effects are related to the financial characteristics of both the client firms and their primary banks. Firms that have greater access to alternative sources of funding experience a less severe adverse impact from bank failure announcements. Similarly, clients of banks that are more profitable, better capitalized, and have lower loan loss reserves suffer less from the failure announcements. However, we also find that these effects are not significantly different from the effects experienced by all firms in the economy. That is, the bank failures represent “bad news” for all firms in the economy, not just for the customers of the failed banks.     

Responding to financial crisis: Bank credit expansion with Chinese characteristics

China has sustained a high rate of economic growth even after the outbreak of global financial crisis around 2008 and 2009. Much of the growth stemmed from consistently high levels of lending after this period. Using a unique large dataset from all banking institutions in 90 counties across 14 provinces of China from 2005 to 2013, this paper examines the patterns of credit expansion by Chinese banks. Our study results reveal a clear pattern of counter-cyclical credit expansion by Chinese banks in response to the outbreak of global financial crisis. We find that ownership structure and bank governance do impact on bank lending: the large state-owned banks have responded more to political pressure to lend while the joint-stock banks and city commercial banks have been more profit oriented. The latter had increased their lending more to increase their presence at the county markets. Overall, compared with county-based small banks, cross-regional banks have expanded their lending much more aggressively. Differences in liquidity and deposit growth, risk management strategies, or legal enforcement cannot explain these results.     

浙江农户借贷需求的差异分析——基于浙江省农户借贷行为的调查

本文借鉴社会学的分层理论,按照家庭收入来源的不同,将浙江农户分为四个阶层,通过对不同阶层农户入户调查返回的样本数据进行分析,发现虽然农户对信贷资金的需求总量和额度在不断上升,并由农业生产性贷款向非农经营和消费性贷款转变,但不同阶层农户在借贷需求上的差异很大。     

Bank market power and revenue diversification: Evidence from selected ASEAN countries

This paper examines the association between bank market power and revenue diversification using a sample of 153 commercial banks from five Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam). We find a non-linear relationship between bank market power and revenue diversification, where at lower degrees of market power (in loan and deposit markets) banks concentrate on revenue diversification. In contrast, those with greater market power focus more on traditional interest-based products. Our findings also indicate that credit losses experienced earlier, during and after the Asian financial crisis have encouraged ASEAN banks to diversify into non-traditional activities to compensate for their excessive losses. When the markets recovered and loan demand increased, however, traditional interest-based business has become more important. These results remain consistent across all models providing robust results.