耐用品、投资专有冲击与货币政策福利

本文构建蕴含耐用品与非耐用品的两部门DSGE模型,研究投资专有冲击对货币政策及社会福利的影响。投资专有技术进步改进了投资转化为生产资本的效率,放大边际成本波动,增加了厂商调价动机和价格水平变动。即使耐用品价格完全灵活,最优货币政策也无法同时稳定价格和实际GDP。研究发现:(1)耐用品相对价格缺口波动率的上升虽然增加了实际GDP波动,但能够有效地降低投资专有技术对边际成本的冲击,减少价格变动的福利损失。所以两部门投资专有冲击时,央行倾向于稳定价格水平。与其相反,在单部门投资专有冲击和两部门生产技术冲击时,最优货币政策应降低耐用品相对价格缺口波动,稳定实际GDP。(2)对比三种泰勒规则:钉住非耐用品PPI、钉住加权平均PPI及钉住CPI,福利分析发现钉住非耐用品PPI最优,钉住CPI次之,钉住加权平均PPI的福利损失最大。就损失程度而言,投资专有冲击的福利损失是生产技术冲击的2倍,表明投资专有冲击加剧了最优货币政策在稳定价格与实际GDP间的权衡。     

土地财政、房地产需求冲击与经济波动北大核心CSSCISSCI

本文将地方政府的土地财政行为纳入到一个DSGE模型框架中,刻画和分析其在经济波动的传导中所扮演的角色。我们运用中国宏观数据对模型进行了估计,识别出房地产需求冲击是导致房地产市场波动的主要冲击,并对模型在该冲击下的反应进行了数值模拟。研究发现,地方政府土地财政行为的存在,一方面会显著地放大房地产市场的波动,另一方面会将房地产市场的波动传导到实体经济,放大消费、投资和产出波动。同时,模型产生的脉冲反应与来自VAR的实证证据实现了较好的匹配。在此基础上的福利分析表明,土地财政带来了显著的社会福利损失,且地方政府对土地财政的依赖程度越强,福利损失越大。而政府通过土地供给政策的运用,可以一定程度上缓解这一过程。     

动态不完全市场中不流动资产的定价

流动性对资产收益有重大影响,流动性好坏与资产能否流动是不同层面的问题,前者属于完全市场,后者属于不完全市场,但经典的金融经济学主要研究完全市场上的资产定价和最优组合策略。本文基于中国的现实制度背景,考察流动性受限对资产定价的影响,构建了动态不完全市场中不流动资产的定价模型及最优组合策略;证明了不流动性资产从根本上影响了最优组合策略,不流动资产折价率受到流动约束的时间长短、不流动资产收益的波动率等诸多参数的显著影响。     

最优消费和资产组合选择理论的研究综述

最优消费与资产组合选择理论是金融学中资产组合选择理论的扩展和延伸.本文将最优消费和资产组合选择理论文献按照完全市场和非完全市场的假设前提分为两大类进行回顾和总结,并重点介绍了国外学者研究劳动收入风险以及流动性约束对资产组合选择影响的最新成果,这对研究我国居民资产组合选择具有很大的启发.     

中国信贷市场利率与经济波动:2004-2010

本文基于VAR和VEC模型对我国信贷市场利率与经济波动的关系进行实证分析。研究结果表明:(1)投资、消费对于信贷市场利率的冲击处于负的脉冲响应,投资的响应更显著。投资、消费对信贷市场利率的影响非常有限。(2)投资波动对产出波动起主要作用;产出对投资波动和消费波动的影响程度有限;(3)信贷市场利率与投资、消费、产出之间存在长期均衡关系。基于这些分析结论,文章提出若干政策建议。     

最优消费和资产组合选择理论的研究综述

最优消费与资产组合选择理论是金融学中资产组合选择理论的扩展和延伸。本文将最优消费和资产组合选择理论文献按照完全市场和非完全市场的假设前提分为两大类进行回顾和总结,并重点介绍了国外学者研究劳动收入风险以及流动性约束对资产组合选择影响的最新成果,这对研究我国居民资产组合选择具有很大的启发。     

证券市场噪声交易的博弈分析

证券市场上的噪声交易普遍存在,虽然它增加了市场流动性,但也带来了市场频繁波动的不利影响.本文使用一个两时期模型,通过不完全信息动态博弈分析,解释了为什么投资经理以及投资者会有兴趣参与噪声交易.结果显示:如果投资经理的补偿与投资者对他获取内幕信息这种能力的判断相关,投资经理就会更频繁的交易,即使没有获取内幕信息.     

资产价格、预期冲击与中国宏观经济波动

本文构建了包含长期预期冲击的新凯恩斯一般动态均衡模型,并使用包含资产价格的数据集对模型进行估计,用于分析资产价格、预期冲击与中国宏观经济波动之间的关系。模型研究发现：首先,资产价格数据中蕴含的额外信息对于正确识别和评估预期冲击对中国经济的影响不可或缺,且长期预期冲击的设定更有利于模型从现实数据中提取与预期有关的信息;其次,预期冲击对于解释宏观经济波动十分重要,可以解释一半以上的产出、消费和投资波动以及几乎全部的资产价格波动;最后,在预期冲击主导经济波动的情况下,货币政策适当关注资产价格波动可能会在一定程度上降低预期冲击带来的福利损失。     

保险消费决策行为分析——一个行为保险学的研究框架

虽然期望效用理论公理化的研究框架在推动保险理论的发展过程中起到了举足轻重的作用,但由于该理论假定过强,以致现实解释力有限。保险学有必要从行为的角度分析保险市场、尤其是保险消费决策,提出能够更有效地解释现实的保险消费决策的模式,从而提高理论的实践指导意义。本文在行为保险学已有研究成果的基础上,借鉴前景理论,尝试构建更符合现实消费模式的保险消费决策模型,并运用调查问卷从实证角度验证本文所构建的被保险人最优决策模型。研究发现,被保险人的最优保险选择是保险分层的赔款安排,面对较小或巨大的损失被保险人会选择风险自留,只有在较小和巨大损失之间的损失被保险人才会选择购买保险;寿险中带有投资理财性质的产品以及非寿险中的足额保险产品更受消费者青睐;相对于男性决策者来说,女性面对不确定性时表现得更为谨慎。     

保险消费决策行为分析——一个行为保险学的研究框架北大核心CSSCI

虽然期望效用理论公理化的研究框架在推动保险理论的发展过程中起到了举足轻重的作用,但由于该理论假定过强,以致现实解释力有限。保险学有必要从行为的角度分析保险市场、尤其是保险消费决策,提出能够更有效地解释现实的保险消费决策的模式,从而提高理论的实践指导意义。本文在行为保险学已有研究成果的基础上,借鉴前景理论,尝试构建更符合现实消费模式的保险消费决策模型,并运用调查问卷从实证角度验证本文所构建的被保险人最优决策模型。研究发现,被保险人的最优保险选择是保险分层的赔款安排,面对较小或巨大的损失被保险人会选择风险自留,只有在较小和巨大损失之间的损失被保险人才会选择购买保险;寿险中带有投资理财性质的产品以及非寿险中的足额保险产品更受消费者青睐;相对于男性决策者来说,女性面对不确定性时表现得更为谨慎。     

Bayesian Premium Rating with Latent Structure

We propose a fully Bayesian approach to non-life risk premium rating, based on hierarchical models with latent variables for both claim frequency and claim size. Inference is based on the joint posterior distribution and is performed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Rather than plug-in point estimates of all unknown parameters, we take into account all sources of uncertainty simultaneously when the model is used to predict claims and estimate risk premiums. Several models are fitted to both a simulated dataset and a small portfolio regarding theft from cars. We show that interaction among latent variables can improve predictions significantly. We also investigate when interaction is not necessary. We compare our results with those obtained under a standard generalized linear model and show through numerical simulation that geographically located and spatially interacting latent variables can successfully compensate for missing covariates. However, when applied to the real portfolio data, the proposed models are not better than standard models due to the lack of spatial structure in the data.     

The development of the group accounts disclosure system in Japan

The Japanese disclosure system of consolidated statements was introduced in 1977 and extensively revised in 1997. The role of the bureaucracy has been significant in these developments and seems to be part of Japan's closed culture. However, other explanations could also be applied. In particular, although Japanese firms opposed such disclosures on the basis of preparation costs, the Japanese government had to modernize the disclosure system, including consolidation, in order to develop the securities market regardless of an individual company's interests.     

Moments of Compound Mixed Poisson Distributions

Recursive formulae are derived for the evaluation of the moments and the descending factorial moments about a point n of mixed Poisson and compound mixed Poisson distributions, in the case where the derivative of the logarithm of the mixing density can be written as a ratio of polynomials. As byproduct, we also obtain recursive formulae for the evaluation of the moments about the origin, central moments, descending and ascending factorial moments of these distributions. Examples are also presented for a number of mixing densities.     

The designing of corporate accounting law in Japan after the Second World War

After the Second World War, during the neutralization of the controlled economy of wartime Japan, a design for a Corporate Accounting Law was elaborated by the Investigation Committee on the Business Accounting System. The Investigation Committee tried to establish not only new business accounting standards but also a central and independent administrative organ of corporate accounting regulation on the basis of the Corporate Accounting Law. The Corporate Accounting Law was expected to lay the legal foundation of the new corporate accounting regulation regime in Japan. Nevertheless, even though the original design of the fundamental accounting law was never realized, it should be considered the starting point for our understanding of external accounting history in post-war Japan.     

Disclosure of government financial information and the cost of local government’s debt financing——Empirical evidence from provincial investment bonds for urban construction

China’s slowing economic growth and rapid urbanization have made local government debt financing a significant issue.This study uses a sample of China’s provinc...     

Short-sale refinancing and price adjustment speed to bad news: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

Short selling may accelerate stock price adjustment to negative news. However, the literature provides mixed evidence for this prediction. Using short-sale refinancing and a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model, this paper explores the effect of short selling on stock price adjustment. Our results show that (1) short-sale refinancing improves the speed of stock price adjustment to negative news. This result holds after we control for endogeneity. (2) The positive relationship between short-sale refinancing and stock price adjustment speed is significant in subsamples of stocks with higher earnings management or lower accuracy of analyst forecasts, indicating that firms with more opaque information are more likely to be targeted by short sellers. In subsamples of stocks with a higher ownership concentration or lower ownership by institutional investors, short selling is more likely to increase the speed of stock price adjustment, indicating that ownership structure may influence negative news mining. (3) As short-sale refinancing exacerbates the absorption of bad news by stock prices, it increases crash risk. This study enriches the research on the economic consequences of short selling and provides empirical evidence supporting regulations on short selling in China.     

The deliberation around accounting techniques: accounting for depreciation and foreign exchange in an Indian jute company, 1870-1900

This paper examines the way two accounting techniques, namely depreciation and foreign exchange, were deliberated on, between 1870 and 1900, in an Indian jute company whose shareholders resided in the UK. The arena for these deliberations was the conflictual relationship between controlling and non-controlling shareholders as to how best to account for depreciation and foreign exchange especially when the particular accountings affected distributional issues such as the dividend decision. The purpose of this paper is to analyse and explain the processes by which a company's accounting practices emerge and develop as a contest between different interests. Accounting framed the parameters of the deliberations and provided the language of power and dissent. The paper uses a rich archive that includes narrative and accounting material.     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

【正】The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing ...     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

正The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing and corporate governance issues that relate to the greater China region.We welcome the submission of both theoretical and empirical research papers pertinent to researchers,regulators and practitioners.Authors should note: