存款利率下调不会引发储蓄滑坡

继今年4月1日国家取消对三年期以上定期储蓄存款保值补贴后,又于5月1日以平均0.98％的降幅降低了全部储蓄存款利率,这使得有些同志得出这样一个结论:储蓄存款利率的下调,必然弱化居民储蓄行为而强化证券投资行为,从而加剧储蓄分流,引发储蓄滑坡。然而笔者认为,存款利率下调,不会引发储蓄滑坡。     

我国居民储蓄变动原因探析

一、利率连续下调对居民储蓄的影响从1996年5月以来,中国人民银行连续七次降低利率,力度之大,频率之快,是前所未有的。以一年期存款为例,利率从10.98%降至2.25%,降幅近80%。有关资料显示,居民储蓄的增长势头在每次降息后都有一定程度的减缓,但储蓄总额     

消费为何难以被刺激起来

造成目前我国消费需求不足的原因很多，比如我国传统的“量入为出”消费观念使得人们面对几经下调的存款利率，依旧增加储蓄，1996年居民人均储蓄存款比1995年上升了29％，净增715元。利率下降，储蓄反而增加，这在世界各国中也是比较罕见的“逆经济规律”现象，也就是说，在中国，利率调节消费的杠杆作用很弱；另外，多年来我国一直重视投资，轻视消费，忽视了后者对宏观经济发展的巨大作用，使得居民收入分配制度改革滞后于住房制度改革、教育体制改革、医疗保险制度改革等；再就是产品与消费需求在结构上存在着严重的矛盾，一边是产品销…     

我国居民储蓄函数的实证研究——基于1995—2007年季度数据的计量分析

长期以来,我国居民储蓄存款余额一直处于不断上升、加速增长的态势。但是2006年下半年以来,我国居民在金融机构的人民币储蓄存款的增幅却出现了下降趋势。进入2007年,增幅缩减速度加快。本文对1995年第一季度至2007年第一季度居民储蓄情况进行回归分析和实证研究,估测我国居民的储蓄函数,认为我国居民储蓄主要受收入影响,对利率的敏感性较差。股票市场的发展对储蓄分流有一定作用,但还不明显。这一结论表明我国居民储蓄具有较强的经济理性,基本符合中国经济发展的特点,但同时也说明了我国在利率市场化和资本市场建设上依旧任重道远。     

多次降息储蓄还有吸引力吗？

1998年7月1日,人民银行决定对存款利率再次下调,这已是今年的第二次利率下调了,也是两年多来的第五次降低利率了。1996年以来,我国已先后进行了5次利率下调,1996年5月1日和8月23日存款利率分别平均降低了0.98个百分点和1.5个百分点;1997年10月23日存款利率又平均降低了     

强化服务是银行负债结构调整的有效途径

银行负债结构调整，长期以来就是金融界的难题之一。其原因在于国内商业银行由于缺乏新的金融工具，无法主动地通过存款、发行金融债券等金融活动方式，主动地安排自己的负债结构，一直是在被动性地吸收各项存款，使国内商业银行在调整自己的负债结构方面难有作为。虽然各项存款在竞争中不断增加，但高成本负债结构的占比始终居高不下，银行吸纳定期储蓄存款的速度比之活期储蓄存款的速度要快得多，这似乎是无法改变的现实。1996年中央银行开始下调存贷款率以来，已经连续六次降低城镇储蓄存款利率，使相当一部分居民对银行储蓄回报率的关注…     

降息后如何投资

中国人民银行自1999年6月10日起,降低金融机构存贷款利率。各项存款年利率在现行基础上平均下调了1个百分点,各项贷款年利率在现行基础上平均下调0.75个百分点。这是继1996年来第七次、1998年来第四次降息此次降息,存款利率下调,居民利息收入减少。因此,抓住时机适时投资以图资金保值增值是居民的最好选择。1.投资债券正当时。近年来,我国企业债券市场在发行和交易方面都不断有新的进展和改善。从发行方面看,不仅品种增多,发行方式也有进步。如从1997年开始,铁道部35亿元债券分作3年期和5年期两     

让老百姓的“钱袋子”不再“上锁”——8万亿元居民储蓄说明了什么

中国人民银行日前发布的统计数据表明，５月末，我国城乡居民储蓄存款余额为８．０４万亿元，首次突破８万亿元大关。为加快经济发展，启动消费，抑制通货紧缩的蔓延，自１９９６年起，央行连续８次降息，使利率降低了７８．４％，达到历史最低水平。央行的举措，的确在一定程度上引致储蓄分流，但居民储蓄总体上仍然呈现持续增长态势。联系近期本被看好的记账式国债发行所遭遇的冷清，我们该怎样看待这８万亿元储蓄规模？储蓄是收入的函数。改革开放以来，伴随着经济的持续快速发展，广大居民的收入和生活水平也得到稳步提高，居民储蓄存款…     

对当前市场疲软问题的探讨

1989年下半年以来,我国出现了商品销售市场疲软的现象。为了解决市场疲软问题,尽快实现经济生活的良性循环,国务院在1990年上半年先后出台两项硬措施:一是降低彩电特别消费税;二是降低银行存贷款利率(现利率已下调过两次)。从总体上说,这两项措施对恢复经济正常运转起到一定的作用,但效果不十分明显。至当年10月,商品零售市场仍偏冷,社会商品零售总额还停留在“蓝灯”区;银行城乡储蓄存款不但未因存款利率下调滑坡,反而坚挺,第三季度储蓄余额达6,646.9亿元(金融时报公     

确定利率水平的基础是经济效率不是资金的虚假供求——关于确定宏观利率水平的政策建议

目前,许多学者,包括一些金融系统的同志认为,利率应当市场化,即资金的价格由市场来决定。其理由是:1.通过提高利率抑制通货膨胀。提高存款利息率来鼓励居民储蓄,收敛消费需求;提高贷款利率来抑制企业和投资对资金的需求。2.提高贷款利率来消除银行的亏损。因为存款利率和贷款利率差较大,加上三年期以上存款储蓄保值,     

Interest Rate Pass-through in a Dual-track System： Evidence from China

Using the Phillips-Loretan approach, this paper verifies the degree and speed of pass- through and rigidity of different interest rates in China, as well as the response of private loan interest rates to other interest rates during 2002-2012. The results indicate that the long-term pass-through from the interbank offered rates and deposit and loan interest rates to the treasury bond rate is incomplete, but that the long-term pass-through to private loan interest rates is overshooting. The long-term pass-through from the deposit and loan interest rates to the overnight interbank offered rate is incomplete, while that to the interbank offered rates of other maturities is complete. The short-term passthrough and adjustment speed of interest rates exhibit asymmetry. Therefore, before considering a full liberalization of interest rates, it is important to further enhance the competition of the financial system and the function of different interest rate systems, such as the interhank market and bond market.     

Interest Rate Pass‐Through in Mongolia

This study empirically examines the interest rate pass‐through of the money market interest rate to bank lending and bank deposit interest rates in Mongolia using both linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models. The results from the empirical analysis using data from December 2002 to September 2015 suggest that interest rate pass‐through is generally weaker, slower, and asymmetric in Mongolia. The new findings provide evidence that: (i) interest rate pass‐through has improved over time; (ii) the bank deposit rate has a higher long‐run interest rate pass‐through and slower adjustment than the bank lending rate; and (iii) there is a negative long‐run asymmetric pass‐through with respect to the bank lending rate and a positive long‐run asymmetric pass‐through with respect to the bank deposit rate.     

2011年理财方略——把钱放进储蓄罐一样方便的投资计划

发改委：通胀宽容度从3％调高至4％。 2010年12月10日晚七时，人们期待中的央行人民币存款加息，并没有如期而止，只等到了央行再次上调存款准备金率0．5个百分点。于是，人民币负利率时代得以延续。     

金融摩擦下利率市场化改革对经济增长的影响研究

当前我国正面临经济增长放缓、流动性趋紧、利率居高不下的复杂局面,如何推进利率市场化改革以维护金融稳定、促进经济增长是重要的课题。文章构建包含金融摩擦因素的经济增长模型,并选用1980—2013年的数据进行实证检验。研究认为,利率变化对储蓄的影响是正向的,对投资的影响在2000年前后由正转负,与经济增长长期负相关,随着利率市场化改革的深入,利率的经济增长弹性呈增大趋势。未来利率市场化改革的重点,在短期应稳健审慎推进存款利率上限放开,在长期应优化金融市场结构畅通利率微观传导机制。     

Deposit market deregulation,implicit deposit rates,and monetary policy

Conclusion Previous analyses of the economic effects of deposit market deregulation generally have treated the gradual elimination of deposit rate ceilings and the effective removal of barriers to bank competition for deposits as separate issues. The key implication of the analysis utilized in this paper is that there are important interactions between these two forms of deposit market deregulation and their ultimate effects on market behavior and outcomes. One aspect of this interaction concerns the payment of implicit interest on deposit balances. Although implicit interest payments usually are viewed as a response to the imposition of ceilings on explicit deposit rates, the amount of implicit interest paid by banks in fact depends crucially upon the amount of monopoly power available to banks as a result of entry restrictions. Competition in deposit markets drives the implicit interest rate to 0 even if the explicit deposit rate is regulated, and the existence of imperfect competition in deposit markets makes the payment of positive implicit deposit interest a theoretical possibility even if the explicit deposit rate ceiling is removed.At a macroeconomic level, increased bank competition enhances the monetary and interest rate impacts of gradual relaxations of a binding deposit rate ceiling. If a ceiling on the explicit deposit rate is present, increased bank rivalry for deposits resulting from deregulation reduces monetary control whether the Fed targets a market interest rate or a reserve aggregate. When there is no ceiling on the explicit deposit rate, increased bank competition has ambiguous implications for monetary policy.The present trend in regulatory policy is pushing the U.S. financial system toward an environment in which explicit deposit rates are flexible, market determined variables and interbank rivalry for deposit funds is much more competitive. The thoretical analysis of this paper indicates that the likely results of these simultaneous developments are the demise of implicit deposit interest (marginal cost pricing of transactions services) and potential complications for the c onduct of monetary policy under either a reserve-oriented operating procedure or a procedure in which the Fed targets a market interest rate. However, the directions and magnitudes of the net impacts of those forms of deregulation ultimately are empirical issues that cannot be fully resolved.via a theoretical analysis.An earlier version of this paper was circulated by the Federal Home Loan Bank Board's Office of Policy and Economic Research as Invited Research Working Paper No. 59. The author is grateful for comments received from Donald Bisenius, Michael Bradley, Richard Brown, George Kanatas, Kenneth Kopecky, Byungkyu Lee, Randall Merris, Douglas Mitchell, Steve Peterson, Richard Startz, Richard Sweeney, Bill Witte, and participants in the Indiana University Money and Banking Seminar. Views expressed in this paper do not necessarily correspond to those of the Federal Home Loan Bank Board or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Any errors are the author's alone.     

关于我国货币政策中间目标的探讨

货币供应量与利率作为货币政策中介目标在理论与现实中都具有可行性与缺点。但是,根据我国当前的经济发展状况,我国货币政策的中介目标货币供应量已经存在被利率所取代的可能性。本文主要比较性地讨论利率取代货币供应量在我国未来的货币政策中作为中介目标的可能性,并对我国未来的货币政策中介目标的选择并提出一些可行的建议。     

存贷款利率水平提高对国债收益率曲线变动影响的分析--基于单因素方差分析方法的实证研究

文章运用方差分析的方法,以九年来存贷款利率首次提高为切入点,考察了在我国特殊的金融运行体制下,存贷款利率变动对债券市场,对债券收益率曲线所产生的影响。文章使用上海证券交易所19支上市国债的日交易收盘数据,通过回归的方法首先拟合出了加息前后三个时间间隔段内每天的     

Completing China's Interest Rate Liberalization

China's recent removal of the last ceiling restriction on deposit rates in October 2015 is a milestone in interest rate liberalization, but not the end of it. International experience suggests that, without structural and quantitative reforms, simply freeing interest rates can result in major financial stress. Before China's central bank can completely relinquish implicit or explicit guidance for commercial banks' interest rate determination, it needs to accomplish two tasks: improvement of commercial banks' pricing capability as well as the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Both tasks require significant reform measures to be initiated, such as enforcing market discipline, forming a new monetary policy framework, developing money and capital markets, abandoning quantitative restrictions on credit and reforming the financial regulatory system.     

Saving,investment, growth and the cost of financial repression

This paper presents a quantitative estimate of the cost of financial repression in developing countries. Here, financial repression is interpreted as the technique of holding institutional interest rates (particularly deposit rates of interest) below their market equilibrium levels. For a sample of developing countries, saving is found to be affected positively by the real deposit rate of interest, as is real money demand, where money is defined broadly to include savings and time deposits. Under disequilibrium interest rate conditions, higher saving which raises real money demand increases pari passu the real supply of credit. Credit availability is an important determinant not only of new investment but also of capacity utilization of the entire capital stock. Hence, the growth rate is itself affected positively by the real deposit rate of interest through two channels – first, the volume of saving and investment and, second, capacity utilization of the entire capital stock, i.e. the measured incremental capital/output ratio. Estimates of saving and growth functions lead to the conclusion that the cost of financial repression appears to be around half a percetage point in economic growth foregone for every one percentage point by which the real deposit rate of interest is set below its market equilibrium rate.     

我国外汇贷款迅速增长问题研究

近期受美元利率下降、人民币升值预期以及从紧货币政策影响,我国外汇贷款迅速增长。本文分析了外汇贷款迅速增长的原因及隐藏的风险,并提出规避存弱贷强引发的流动性风险及汇率风险;上调外汇存款准备金率,增强政府宏观调控效力;加强外汇贷款管理,提高外汇贷款回收率三点防范措施。